Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Research Articles

SYMBOLIC VALUES AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM PROJECT IN ETHIOPIAN IDENTITY POLITICS

This paper attempts to show how the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) ’s economic and political gains could help develop a shared outlook to regulate Ethiopia’s opposing political trajectories, i.e., the ethnocentric and pan-Ethiopian nationalist camps. Presently, different ethnic-based “in-group and out-group” contrasting political discourses have dominated Ethiopian polity. The paper reviews and exposes relevant philosophical concepts, including “mirror identity,” primordial and instrumental conception of ethnicity. Notably, following Anderson’s (2006) line of thought, nationalism as a “cultural artefact” and expression of an “imagined community,” the paper argues that GERD could serve as a shared symbolic and developmental language to reshape Ethiopian national consciousness and imagination by improving the political and economic domains of the country. Accordingly, the GERD covertly or overtly helps reform the polity’s self-recognition mechanisms and circuitously re-approaches outstanding political differences by inspiring trust-based relations among major political actors. Ethnocentric motivations raise political questions such as secession, the right to linguistic and cultural recognition, economic equality, and political security and representation by using their respective ethnic lines as means of political mobilization. In current Ethiopia, political identities have been practically blended with ethnic identity. In this sense, as diverse ethnic groups exist, political borders sustain among the multiple ethnic-based nationalists and between pan-Ethiopian and ethnocentric actors. Thus, a comprehensive dialogue and constructive political cross-fertilization are required between various political actors, horizontally and vertically, among ethnocentric nationalists and the pan-Ethiopian advocates. In Ethiopia, the realization of internal political consensus requires an instantaneous remedial mechanism. Accordingly, the politically drawn antithetical ethnic demarcations and occasionally fabricated historical narratives have undeniably pushed politics into unfavourable conditions. That is why, as the paper maintains that developmental projects such as the GERD would have pertinent economic and political mechanisms to developing a national sentiment, which in turn symbolically facilitate national consensus among the major political actors. Hence, borrowing Fukuyama’s (2018) notion of “creedal national identity”, one could resonate that developmental projects can help realize symbolic worth by constructively enabling citizens to recognize their countries’ foundational ideals and elevating common factors. The present paper does not examine the GERD project’s external geopolitical and legal concerns concerning scope, although these topics are worth examining for further investigations.

Egypt’s water budget deficit and suggested mitigation policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam filling scenarios

The Nile River is a unique environmental system and essential water resource for its basin riparian nations. Population growth, changes in precipitation patterns, damming and usage rights disputes present extreme challenges in utilizing and managing the basin’s primary water resource. These stress factors are of particular concern for highly populated Egypt, the furthest downstream recipient of the Nile’s water flow. Previously, colonial agreements had granted Egypt and Sudan the majority of water use rights on the Nile without neighboring Ethiopia receiving any specific allocation. Today, Ethiopia plans to increase its energy production through its Nile-powered Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). While the 74-billion cubic meter (BCM) dam presents promising development opportunities for Ethiopia, the Nile’s altered flow will increase the existing water deficit for Egypt—the quantification and mitigation of which are still largely unconstrained and under intense debate. To address this deficiency, we estimate that the median total annual water budget deficit for Egypt during the filling period, considering seepage into the fractured rocks below and around the GERD reservoir, as well as the intrinsic water deficit and assuming no possible mitigation efforts by Egyptian authorities, will be ∼31 BCM yr−1, which would surpass one third of Egypt’s current total water budget. Additionally, we provide a feasibility index for the different proposed solutions to mitigate the above deficit and assess their economic impact on the GDP per capita. Our results suggest that the unmet annual deficit during the filling period can be partially addressed by adjusting the Aswan High Dam (AHD) operation, expanding groundwater extraction and by adopting new policies for cultivation of crops. If no prompt mitigation is performed, the short-term three-year filling scenario would generate a deficit that is equivalent to losses to the present cultivated area by up to 72% resulting in a total loss of the agricultural GDP by $51 billion during the above-mentioned filling period. Such figures are equivalent to a decrease in the total national GDP per capita by ∼8%, augmenting existing unemployment rates by 11%, potentially leading to severe socioeconomic instability.

Water sharing policies conditioned on hydrologic variability to inform reservoir operations

Abstract. Water resources infrastructure is critical for energy and food security; however, the development of large-scale infrastructure, such as hydropower dams, may significantly alter downstream flows, potentially leading to water resources management conflicts and disputes. Mutually agreed upon water sharing policies for the operation of existing or new reservoirs is one of the most effective strategies for mitigating conflict, yet this is a complex task involving the estimation of available water, identification of users and demands, procedures for water sharing, etc. A water sharing policy framework that incorporates reservoir operating rules optimization based on conflicting uses and natural hydrologic variability, specifically tailored to drought conditions, is proposed. First, the trade-off between downstream and upstream water availability utilizing multi-objective optimization of reservoir operating rules is established. Next, reservoir operation with the candidate (optimal) rules is simulated, followed by their performance evaluations, and the rule selections for balancing water uses. Subsequently, a relationship between the reservoir operations simulated from the selected rules and drought-specific conditions is built to derive water sharing policies. Finally, the reservoir operating rules are re-optimized to evaluate the effectiveness of the drought-specific water sharing policies. With a case study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile river, it is demonstrated that the derived water sharing policy can balance GERD power generation and downstream releases, especially in dry conditions, effectively sharing the hydrologic risk in inflow variability among riparian countries. The proposed framework offers a robust approach to inform water sharing policies for sustainable management of water resources.

Cooperative operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reduces Nile riverine floods

AbstractThe construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has triggered much debate between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the dam's effects. Once completed, the GERD will be Africa's largest hydropower plant. This study analyzes the implications of cooperative long‐term operation of the GERD for Nile riverine flooding downstream of the dam. A daily river system model of the Eastern Nile is developed and used to examine how cooperative long‐term operation of the GERD would affect the occurrence of three flood alarm levels (alert, critical, and flooding) in Sudan downstream of the dam. A reconnaissance‐level flood inundation model is developed for the Nile within Khartoum State (Sudan's capital) to assess the GERD's impacts on the flood extent in the state based on simulated flows from the river system model. Assuming the GERD is operated to achieve a 90% power reliability and active upstream‐downstream data sharing between Ethiopia and Sudan on the dam's daily outflows, results show that the GERD would reduce the occurrence of the three alarm levels. Based on 34 simulated river flow sequences, the proportion of years with at least one flooding alarm day at Khartoum Gage declined from 37% without the GERD to 11% with the GERD. Seasonal coordination and planning between Ethiopia and Sudan are necessary to mitigate the remaining riverine flood hazard. Although cooperative long‐term operation of the GERD could play a positive role in reducing the riverine flood hazard in Sudan, the associated river flow alterations would adversely impact recession agriculture and the environment.

Impact of flood regime on phytoplankton communities in the large African reservoir, Lake Nasser, Egypt

Lake Nasser is a reservoir of freshwater for drinking and irrigation in Egypt and it constitutes an important share in the fisheries sector. This study aims to acquire a better understanding of the status of phytoplankton distribution in Lake Nasser under the current flood regime and before the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Samples were collected from fifteen sites representing different lake sectors along the main channel of the lake during 2016−2017. Approximately 103 species were recorded, belonging to six different classes, dominated by Cyanobacteria, Bacillariophyceae, Chlorophyceae, whereas Euglenophyceae, Dinophyceae and Chrysophyceae were rare. Based on the abundance of phytoplankton species, the pre-flood and post-flood seasons were very well discriminated. A major blooming of Cyanobacteria in the Tushka sector was detected during the pre-flood season, whereas this phenomenon diminished in the post-flood period when Bacillariophyceae and Chlorophyceae appeared. The results of this study indicated that the most important factors affecting phytoplankton species distribution during pre-flood and post-flood seasons are temperature, nutrients and total dissolved solids. The study confirms that flood regime substantially affects the phytoplankton abundance and distribution in Lake Nasser.

The Value of Long-Term Streamflow Forecasts in Adaptive Reservoir Operation: The Case of the High Aswan Dam in the Transboundary Nile River Basin

AbstractTransboundary river basins are experiencing extensive dam development that challenges future water management, especially for downstream nations. Thus, adapting the operation of existing reservoirs is indispensable to cope with alterations in flow regime. We proposed a Forecast-Based Adaptive Reservoir Operation (FARO) framework to evaluate the use of long-term climate forecasts in improving real-time reservoir operations. The FARO approach was applied to the High Aswan Dam (HAD) in the Nile River basin. Monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts at up to 12 months of lead time are used from a suite of eight North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. The value of NMME-based forecasts to reservoir operations was compared with perfect and climatology-based forecasts over an optimization horizon of 10 years from 1993 to 2002. Our results indicated that the forecast horizon for HAD operation ranges between 5 and 12 months lead time at low- and high-demand scenarios, respectively, beyond which the forecast information no longer improves the release decision. The forecast value to HAD operation is more pronounced in the months following the flooding season (October–December). During these months, the skill of streamflow forecasts using NMME forcings outperforms the climatology-based forecasts. When considering the operation of upstream Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), using streamflow forecasts minimally helps to maintain current target objectives of HAD operation and therefore result in higher operation costs as opposed to current conditions without GERD. Our study underlined the importance of deriving a new adaptive operating policy for HAD to improve the value of available forecasts while considering GERD filling and operation phases.

INUNDATION HAZARDS ON NILE DOWNSTREAM COUNTRIES DUE TO GERD BREAK

Flood due to Dam break can cause a huge loss to human life and property on the downstream area. This loss to human life and property depended on extent of inundation area, size of population at risk, the propagation of flood waves and the amount of warning time available. This paper presents flood hazards on Sudan and Egypt due to Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) break. The GERD is located at 20 km upstream of the Ethiopian–Sudaness border on Blue Nile River. GERD break may be occurred due to many different reasons such as structural instability, overtopping and seepage.Earthquakes, landslide and sabotage can be leads to insidious GERD break. Outflow hydrographs due to GERD break were obtained by HEC-RAS model. The Blue Nile and the Nile River downstream of GERD until the AHD is simulated using SOBEK 1D-2D model. The related data were collected to simulate and analyze GERD break hazard. A risk assessment of the GERD break is obtained. The flood wave propagation is found in terms of inundations maps. The flood water levels and arrival time downstream GERD to AHD is achieved. The results of this investigation could be used to help decision makers to prepare an emergency plan and warning systems to rescue the affected downstream area and to put an evacuate plan. إنهيار السدود من الممکن أن تتسبب في تولد فيضانات مدمره لما هو خلفها من مساحات،والتي من الممکن أن يتولد عنها خسائر کبيرة في الأرواح والممتلکات. والخسائر في الأرواح والممتلکات قد تتغير طبقا للمساحات المغمورة ومدي انتشار موجة الفيضان وعدد السکان المهددين والزمن المتوفر للإنذار. في هذه الدراسة يتم إيضاح مخاطر الفيضان علي السودان ومصر الناجم عن إنهيار سد النهضة الأثيوبي. يوجد سد النهضة الأثيوبي علي النيل الأزرق علي بعد 20 کم أمام الحدود السودانية الأثيوبية. يوجد عدد من الأسباب لإنهيار سد النهضة الأثيوبي ومنها عدم الاتزان الإنشائي أو تدفق المياه من أعلي جسم السد أو التسريبأو حدوث ظاهرة فوران التربه من خلال جسم السد أو من منطقة الأساسات, وکذلک من الممکن أن يحدث الأنهيار لأسباب فجائية مثل حدوث زلزال أو أنهيار في التربة أو عمل إرهابي. التصرفات الخارجة من بحيرة سد النهضة نتيجة الانهيار تم حسابها باستخدام برنامج HEC-RAS. تم تمثيل نهر النيل الأزرق ونهر النيل خلف سد النهضة باستخدام برنامج SOBEK 1D-2D. تم تجميع البيانات المطلوبة لتمثيل وتحليل إنهيار سد النهضه. تم تقييم المخاطر الناجمه عن إنهيار سد النهضة. تم إستخراج النتائج المتولدة من انتشار موجة الفيضان علي شکل خرائط غرق وکذلک إيجاد أعماق المياه وزمن الوصل عبر مسار الدراسة من سد النهضة حتي السد العالي. تساعد النتائج المستخلصة من هذه الدراسه متخذي القرار في إعداد خطة طواريء ونظام إنذار لتقليل المساحات المتأثرة خلف سد النهضة، وکذلک عمل خطة إخلاء بزمن کافي قبل وصول مياه الفيضان.

Linking solar and wind power in eastern Africa with operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt are currently embroiled in a politically charged conflict that surrounds the soon-to-be-completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with Ethiopia’s energy objectives purportedly conflicting with the water needs in Sudan and Egypt. Here we show that the multiple political and environmental challenges that surround GERD could be mitigated by explicitly coupling its operation to variable solar and wind power, which would create an incentive for Ethiopia to retain a seasonality in the Blue Nile flow. We found that this could deliver fivefold benefits across the three countries: decarbonizing power generation in the Eastern Africa Power Pool; allowing compliance with Sudan’s environmental flow needs; optimizing GERD’s infrastructure use; harmonizing the yearly refilling schedules of GERD and Egypt’s High Aswan Dam; and supporting a strong diversification of Ethiopian power generation for domestic use and for Eastern Africa Power Pool exports. These results argue for an explicit integration of complementary hydro, solar and wind power strategies in GERD operation and Eastern Africa Power Pool expansion planning.

Dam if You Do, Dam if You Don't: Politics and Floods in the Shadow of COVID-19 in Sudan.

Dam if You Do, Dam if You Don't: Politics and Floods in the Shadow of COVID-19 in Sudan.

Coulomb stress analysis for several filling and operational scenarios at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam impoundment

Increased demand for power generation coupled with changing seasonal water uncertainty has caused a worldwide increase in the construction of large hydrologic engineering structures. That said, the soon-to-be-completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will impound the Blue Nile River in Western Ethiopia and its reservoir will encompass ~ 1763 km2 and store ~ 67 Gt (km3) of surface water. The impoundment will undergo maximum seasonal load changes of ~ 28 to ~ 36 Gt during projected seasonal hydroelectric operations. The GERD impoundment will cause significant subsurficial stresses, and could possibly trigger seismicity in the region. This study examines Coulomb stress and hydrologic load centroid movements for several GERD impoundment and operational scenarios. The maximum subsurficial Coulomb stress applied on optimally oriented fault planes from the full impoundment is ~ 186 kPa and over 30% of our model domain incurs Coulomb stresses ≥ 10 kPa, regardless of the impoundment period length. The main driver behind Coulomb stress and load centroid motion during impoundment is the annual, accumulated daily reservoir storage change. The maximum Coulomb stresses from the highest amplitude season of five long-term operational scenarios are around 36, 33, 29, 41, and 24% of the total maximum stresses from the entire GERD impoundment. Variations in annual Coulomb stresses during modeled GERD operations are attributed to the seasonal load per unit area, and partially to the initial seasonal water level. The spatial patterns and amplitudes of these stress tensors are closely linked to both the size and timing of GERD inflow/outflow rates, and an improved understanding of the magnitude and extent of these stresses provides useful information to water managers to better understand potential reservoir triggered seismic events from several different operational and impoundment strategies.

Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan

ABSTRACT The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD’s long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (excluding initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan’s macro-economic benefits.

The Impact of the Renaissance Dam Crisis on Cropping Pattern and the Employment in the Agricultural Sector in Egypt

Agriculture is the main water consumer in Egypt, accounting for 77% of the available water resources, amounting to about 81 billion m3 in 2018, but it faces internal and external challenges that hinder its future development, whether due to increased demand for it or the potential effects for building and operating the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This may affect Egypt's annual share of the Nile River water, representing about 71% of the total water supply. Therefore, the research is aimed to study the current and future status of the Egyptian water resources, and the expected economic effects of the scenarios for filling the dam, on the cropping pattern and agricultural employment.The study showed many important results including: The water deficit of the agricultural sector according to the three scenarios of filling the dam in (three years, five years, and seven years) estimated at 14.5, 8.7, and 6.22 billion m3, respectively. This was reflected in the decrease in the crop area at a decrease rate representing about 21.81%, 15.48%, and 9.85%, respectively, compared to the current situation. Also, it was reflected in reducing the rates of demand for agricultural labor and thus increasing unemployment rates in the future by about 24.79%, 19.5%, and 13.73%, respectively; Finally, decline the total return according to the three scenarios of filling the dam in by 4.52%, 9.36%, and 21.22% compared to the current situation, respectively.

Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, Ethiopia is looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., the Blue Nile, the greatest tributary of Nile river). Besides other dams on the Omo river, the GIBE family, Ethiopia is now building the largest hydropower plant of Africa, the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), on the Blue Nile river, leading to tensions between Ethiopia, and Egypt, due to potentially conflictive water management. In addition, present and prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, and this thereby is relevant for downstream water users, population, and environment. Here, we evaluated water management for the GERD, and GIBE III dams, under present, and future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power, to describe (i) hydrological budget, and flow routing and (ii) optimal/maximum hydropower production from the two dams, under unconstrained (i.e., no release downstream besides MIF) and constrained (i.e., with fair release downstream) simulation. We then used climate change scenarios from the reports CMIP5/6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) until 2100, to assess future hydropower production. Our results demonstrate that the filling phase of the GERD, particularly critical, have optimal filling time of 5 years or so. Stream flows at GERD could be greater than the present ones (control run CR) at half century (2050–2059), but there could be large decrease at the end of century (2090–2099). Energy production at half century may increase, and then decrease until the end of century. In GIBE III discharges would increase both at half century, and at the end of century, and so would energy production. Constrained, and unconstrained simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential for shared water management in both plants.

Evaluating the hydropower potential of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

One of the largest hydropower projects in Africa is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is currently under construction in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin in Ethiopia. The GERD has been billed as a hydropower project that will significantly improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and neighboring countries with a total capacity of 5150 MW. This paper evaluates the hydrological potential of the UBN basin for meeting the declared hydropower production design from the GERD. Our investigation indicated that the hydrology of the UBN can sustain the inflow to the GERD that would produce 13 629 GWh per annum (capacity factor = 0.30). Investigations further revealed that the GERD operation in the current design configuration will likely result in eight (out of 14) idle turbines every year. Our study also demonstrated that current GERD capacity (5150 MW) is more reasonable than previous designs (e.g., 6000 and 6450 MW).

The Utilization of Nile Water among the Riparian States: Tensions and Controversies on the Filling and Annual Operation of the GERD

Despite the fear entertained by the downstream countries of the Nile basin, little attention was paid to the right of Ethiopia to utilize the Blue Nile waters. The purpose of this study is to explain the tension between upper riparian Ethiopia and downstream Sudan and Egypt on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling and controversies on its annual operation. A descriptive qualitative research method was employed to describe the tension concerning the filling and controversies on the annual operation of the GERD. The investigation relied on secondary sources of data obtained from YouTube videos of international broadcast media such as CGTN, Aljazeera, and TRT World. In addition, national broadcast media of Ethiopia (Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation and Ahadu Television), Sudan (Sudan Tribune), and Egypt (Daily News Egypt) accessed to make data balance. Moreover, letters from these countries sent to the UNSC have been reviewed. Besides, published and unpublished secondary sources on the Nile basin hydro-politics and the GERD were reviewed. The finding of the study reveals that the filling of the dam does not constitute significant harm as it can be seen from the first phase filling given the hydrological condition in the Eastern Nile Basin. The controversy regarding the annual operation of the GERD arises from the fear that their historical and current water use will be threatened. They wanted to conclude the binding agreement in their favor at the expense of Ethiopia’s future utilization of Blue Nile water. Their fear is Ethiopia would not remain faithful to its promises that the dam and its filling do not affect their water security. Rather than basing their claim on invalid colonial treaties, Egypt and Sudan should acknowledge Ethiopia’s right to utilize the Blue Nile water resource and fill the dam without causing significant harm. It is suggested to clear distrust and discuss issues of common concern by tolerating short-term risk for the long-term collective prosperity.

Reservoir-Induced Land Deformation: Case Study from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Nile River stretches from south to north throughout the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Northeast Africa. Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile originates, has begun the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will be used to generate electricity. However, the impact of the GERD on land deformation caused by significant water relocation has not been rigorously considered in the scientific research. In this study, we develop a novel approach for predicting large-scale land deformation induced by the construction of the GERD reservoir. We also investigate the limitations of using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE-FO) mission to detect GERD-induced land deformation. We simulated three land deformation scenarios related to filling the expected reservoir volume, 70 km3, using 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios. The results indicated: (i) trends in downward vertical displacement estimated at −17.79 ± 0.02, −8.90 ± 0.09, and −5.94 ± 0.05 mm/year, for the 5-, 10-, and 15-year filling scenarios, respectively; (ii) the western (eastern) parts of the GERD reservoir are estimated to move toward the reservoir’s center by +0.98 ± 0.01 (−0.98 ± 0.01), +0.48 ± 0.00 (−0.48 ± 0.00), and +0.33 ± 0.00 (−0.33 ± 0.00) mm/year, under the 5-, 10- and 15-year filling strategies, respectively; (iii) the northern part of the GERD reservoir is moving southward by +1.28 ± 0.02, +0.64 ± 0.01, and +0.43 ± 0.00 mm/year, while the southern part is moving northward by −3.75 ± 0.04, −1.87 ± 0.02, and −1.25 ± 0.01 mm/year, during the three examined scenarios, respectively; and (iv) the GRACE-FO mission can only detect 15% of the large-scale land deformation produced by the GERD reservoir. Methods and results demonstrated in this study provide insights into possible impacts of reservoir impoundment on land surface deformation, which can be adopted into the GERD project or similar future dam construction plans.

An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020, indicating a contrasting trend in August and September 2020 for the upstream/downstream water bodies: upstream of the dam rises steeply, while downstream decreases. Our time-series analysis also shows the average monthly precipitation (derived using IMERG) in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia has received an abnormally high amount of rainfall as well as a high amount of runoff (analyzed using GLDAS output). Simultaneously, the study also demonstrates the drying trend downstream at Lake Nasser in Southern Egypt before December 2020. From our results, we estimate that the volume of water at GERD has already increased by 3.584 billion cubic meters, which accounts for about 5.3% of its planned capacity (67.37 billion cubic meters) from 9 July–30 November 2020. Finally, we observed an increasing trend in GRACE anomalies for GERD, whereas, for the Lake Nasser, we observed a decreasing trend. In addition, our study discusses potential interactions between GERD and the rainfall and resulting flood in Sudan. Our study suggests that attention should be drawn to the connection between the GERD filling and potential drought in the downstream countries during the upcoming dry spells in the Blue Nile River Basin. This study provides an open-source technique using Google Earth Engine (GEE) to monitor the changes in water level during the filling of the GERD reservoir. GEE proves to be a powerful as well as an efficient way of analyzing computationally intensive SAR images.

Learning from the River Nile about engineering sustainable futures

The history of the Nile in Africa offers useful lessons for civil engineers seeking to build a sustainable future, in which climate change is an existential challenge. For thousands of years, communities along the river have sought greater water security at the interface of technical possibility, politics and unpredictable nature. Large projects such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam and Jonglei canal in South Sudan continue to be controversial, but both show how civil engineers might help to address climate change challenges. Once again, Nile communities need civil engineers to find and implement innovative, politically acceptable and sustainable development initiatives.

Would Africa's largest hydropower dam have profound environmental impacts?

In the face of rapid growth in the global demands for water, energy, and food, building large dams is expected to continue. Due to its potential opportunities and risks for the people of the Eastern Nile Basin, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile Riverhas commanded regional and international attention. Once completed, it will rank the largest hydropower dam in Africa and among the largest worldwide. Discourse among scientists and negotiators from Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the design, initial filling, and long-term operation of the GERD is ongoing since the construction started in 2011, but no agreement has yet been reached. The discourse has hitherto focused on the impacts on hydropower production, water availability, and irrigated agriculture, with little attention to the dam's potential environmental impacts. Here, we communicate our viewpoint on this gap, drawingon knowledgefrom other dams around the world and some GERDcharacteristics. The hydrological alterations associated with the GERD could adversely impact fish, aquatic plants, and biodiversityin the downstream due to possiblechanges in water temperature, salinity, and oxygen content. The GERD's expected flooded area, location at low latitude in the tropics, and the deep turbine intakes could intensify greenhouse gas emissions,whereas the dam'shigh reservoir depth would abate the emissions. The dam's electricity could also reduceregionalgreenhouse gas emissions if combined withcleaner intermittent solar and windenergy sources. With a maximum reservoir area of 1904 km2, surface evaporation and consequently local extreme precipitation and humidity could increase. Theaforementioned impacts could have transboundary ecological, agricultural, and health implications and, therefore, should be taken intoconsideration alongside the benefits of the dam.

New Dimensions in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Negotiations: Ontological Security in Egypt and Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The preponderant focus of the negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt over the use of the Nile/the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is on material aspects of water security, ignoring non-material, emotional attachments. Using ontological security as an analytical lens, it is argued that the GERD will lead to re-structuring Egypt’s state identity conception while potentially serving as an anchor to Ethiopia’s changing ontological security. If the negotiations are to transform interactions and build a cooperative routinized relationship more time and resources should be spent on building trust, especially in constructing more compatible state identities.