The Impact of the Renaissance Dam Crisis on Cropping Pattern and the Employment in the Agricultural Sector in Egypt

Abstract

Agriculture is the main water consumer in Egypt, accounting for 77% of the available water resources, amounting to about 81 billion m3 in 2018, but it faces internal and external challenges that hinder its future development, whether due to increased demand for it or the potential effects for building and operating the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This may affect Egypt's annual share of the Nile River water, representing about 71% of the total water supply. Therefore, the research is aimed to study the current and future status of the Egyptian water resources, and the expected economic effects of the scenarios for filling the dam, on the cropping pattern and agricultural employment.The study showed many important results including: The water deficit of the agricultural sector according to the three scenarios of filling the dam in (three years, five years, and seven years) estimated at 14.5, 8.7, and 6.22 billion m3, respectively. This was reflected in the decrease in the crop area at a decrease rate representing about 21.81%, 15.48%, and 9.85%, respectively, compared to the current situation. Also, it was reflected in reducing the rates of demand for agricultural labor and thus increasing unemployment rates in the future by about 24.79%, 19.5%, and 13.73%, respectively; Finally, decline the total return according to the three scenarios of filling the dam in by 4.52%, 9.36%, and 21.22% compared to the current situation, respectively.