Surface water and geomorphological changes of the Blue Nile dynamics associated with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): a multi-temporal analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Blue Nile River is an indispensable source of livelihood for over 90 million people in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Recently, Ethiopia has constructed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest in Africa, which could potentially alter the geomorphology of the river regime, and impact downstream countries. This study offers the first comprehensive analysis of the geomorphological alterations and water surface coverage changes of the Blue Nile River due to the construction and operation of the GERD. For this, we use multi-temporal Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning the period from 2009 to 2022, supplemented with Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) precipitation products to discern the potential influence of climate variability on the observed changes. The findings are examined using the Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) model, revealing significant fluctuations in the water surface coverage area across different sections of the river, particularly following the filling stages of the GERD. An analysis at every 10 km is performed to assess the extent of GERD’s influence on the Blue Nile, which indicates no notable alterations in surface area or geomorphology within the first 30 km of downstream river flow. The study also determines that changes from 2011 to 2018 are primarily associated with the upgrade activities of the Roseires Dam, while alterations along the Blue Nile from 2018 to 2019 are linked to climate variability. The observed changes between 2020 and 2022 can largely be attributed to the filling stages of the GERD. Notably, these changes are most pronounced in the water retaining areas upstream of the GERD dam. The results also show that Roseires Dam could play a crucial role as a buffer, mitigating potential impacts imposed by the GERD, and serving as a conduit between the GERD and downstream communities.