Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa: Arab Countries’ Stance on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with Special Focus on the GCC Position

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The Horn of Africa holds a strategic position, bordering on the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Nile region. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects three continents – Asia, Africa, and Europe-lie within its ambit. Over the past decade, external powers have begun to take a heightened interest in this region. Consequently, security issues in this strategically vital area have become increasingly salient, and local conflicts, famines, the proliferation of terrorist groups and maritime piracy have all found their way onto wider regional and international agendas. The current conflict between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is of particular significance in this new scenario. This paper explores the position of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the general Arab stance on the dispute. It is worth noting that despite the considerable efforts made by Egyptian diplomacy to establish a unified Arab position on the Renaissance Dam issue, there are significant differences among Arab countries in regard to the issue. At the level of the GCC countries, the United Arab Emirates adopts a relatively flexible and neutral position, sometimes positioning itself as a mediator between the conflicting parties. Conversely, Kuwait maintains a firm stance in support of the Egyptian-Sudanese position, considering water security for Egypt and Sudan as a justifiable national security concern for the two countries. Saudi Arabia appears to be neutral in the conflict and emphasises that the African Union should play the primary role in resolving the issue. Even the two downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, have failed to adopt cohesive stances on the issue. At the Arab Summit held in Algeria on 2 November 2022, significant differences between Sudan and Egypt emerged in the working of the final document, even though they had been intent on welding wider Arab support behind their conflict with Ethiopia. This paper explores the nature of, and the reasons behind, the differences between GCC countries and the broader Arab community regarding the Renaissance Dam issue. Furthermore, it examines the potential for developing a unified yet flexible Arab Gulf position which could help to lay the basis for a balanced and fair agreement between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt on the Renaissance Dam issue.