Geopolitical Forces Research Articles

Guest Editorial: Balancing the Barrel and Beyond

_ Back in the early stages of the pandemic, a high-ranking executive at GALP told me the Portuguese company was positioning itself to become “the Amazon of Energy,” explaining that a fully digitalized operation and a diverse portfolio of products and services that extend well beyond GALP’s oil and gas roots would enable the company to thrive, even in the face of extreme disruption. Now, more than 2 years later, the disruption in energy markets has indeed reached extreme levels due to the war in Ukraine, inflation, economic uncertainty, changing climate, the global push to decarbonize, and yes, even the remnants of the COVID-19 pandemic. All of which is testing the ability of oil, gas, and energy companies to respond to rapidly changing market signals and energy priorities. Doing business in highly volatile market conditions has long been a strong suit for hydrocarbon-focused energy companies. Now, amid a unique confluence of factors, these companies are being asked to be more responsive, agile, and Amazon-like than they have ever been, with the ability to rapidly read the signals they’re getting from the market, from geopolitical forces and other sources, then respond, reprioritize, reallocate, and scale accordingly. That could mean producing and exporting more liquefied natural gas supplies for the European market to fill the void left by Russia, for example, or accelerating timelines for renewable energy production projects to reduce reliance on coal for electricity generation. How can traditionally hydrocarbon-focused companies answer the call—and in doing so, take advantage of the opportunities that today’s unique market dynamics present? I see five keys to maintaining a high level of operational and supply chain readiness, without compromising near-term or long-term profitability. 1. Build a diverse portfolio of revenue streams that balances today’s realities with tomorrow’s priorities. Traditional hydrocarbon-focused energy companies lately have been diversifying into new energy products and services, and new lines of business, as a hedge against volatile oil and gas prices, and as a means to meet longer-term carbon-reduction and ESG (environment, social, and governance) goals. At the same time, however, shifts in the short-term energy mix in Europe and elsewhere as a result of supply disruptions have returned the energy security issue to the front burner, providing a clear reminder of the vital role oil and gas will continue to play not just in the months ahead, but for the long term. Strategically, the pursuit of lower-carbon revenue streams and the continued focus on hydrocarbon production aren’t mutually exclusive. Recent developments highlight how important it is for energy companies (and policymakers) to balance longer-term carbon-reduction goals with near-term energy market realities. At Shell, for example, near-term oil and natural gas production remains a top priority. Yet the company also is pressing forward with a plan to build a network of half a million electric vehicle charge points by 2025. Meanwhile, Occidental and its carbon-capture subsidiary 1PointFive plan to open what they tout as the world’s largest direct air capture plant in Texas by 2024, with the potential to build another 70 such plants worldwide by 2035. These are the types of markets energy companies could and should be exploring to increase their resilience, stability, and flexibility.

The role of natural resources in international relations in the 20th – early 21st century

The availability of natural resources has always been one of the most important aspects of international relations, which have historically developed as a system of interconnections between different countries. However, there is a problem of natural resource scarcity in the world, thus, it is necessary to understand how markets influence national policies and how states can intervene and regulate the balance of natural resources and energy markets, which is the relevance of the study. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of natural resources on the development of international relations in the 20th – early 21st centuries. To achieve this purpose, the study uses general scientific and special methods: historical, synchronous and diachronic, logical, analysis and synthesis, generalisation and quantitative comparison, scientific abstraction, and comparative analysis. The study established that the United States of America, South America and the Middle East had significant reserves of oil, natural gas, coal and precious metals. In addition, as noted, at the end of the 20th century, the issue of energy security was increasingly used to define international energy policy, and at the beginning of the 21st century, energy became one of the important aspects of geopolitics and an instrument of geopolitical competition. The consolidation of economic interests realised through the exploitation of natural resources is becoming the foundation for conflicts between different countries seeking to dominate the global resource market. It is established that the policy of the United States of America in the Middle East was based on an attempt to control natural resources, and in South America - on supporting its national interests. The practical significance of the study allows exploring key issues in international relations for an in-depth understanding of the balance of geopolitical forces in the 20th – early 21st centuries

V.I. Lamansky: Civilizations and the War of Languages

The article deals with the problems of language and war in the civilizational concept of the Slavist Academician V.I. Lamansky. Lamansky's attitude to the Crimean War and Russian-Turkish War of 1877–1879 is traced on the basis of archival documents. His assessments of military and political events are given. It is pointed out that Lamansky's political-geographical doctrine formulated in his treatise «The Three Worlds of the Asian-European Continent» (1892) and in his earlier works, was a development of the Slavophile ideas and included the provisions later developed by Eurasianists. It is pointed out that he gave not only a geographical but also a linguistic definition of civilizations, in particular, he believed that civilizational worlds are held together by a common language (world-historical language). According to Lamansky, who formulated the doctrine of linguistic hegemony, the competition between peoples and states, including military, is replaced by the competition of world-historical languages. In Europe, he believed, three Romance languages (French, Italian and Spanish) and two Germanic languages (English and German) are struggling with each other. Of these, only Spanish and English, thanks to the vast colonies of Great Britain and the former colonies of Spain, could retain their world-historical significance. In time, he suggested, even Spain's former colonies in South America might come under Anglo-Saxon rule, and the center of the Western world would shift to the New World. In the Middle World or the Greco-Slavic world, Russian has no competitors, so it should be a common literary, scientific and diplomatic language, uniting the peoples of the Middle World in a civilizational unity. Language is the main geopolitical force through which cultural and, in the long term, political unity is first formed. Based on the philosophical and historical analysis of the contradictions between the Romano-Germanic and the Greek-Slavic worlds, Lamansky concluded that the coming world war was inevitable.

Art and Environmental Struggle Curating an Exhibition About Place-Rooted Ecological Knowledge.

Inspired by ecological calendars, the Herbert F. Johnson Museum of Art organized the exhibition Art and Environmental Struggle to coincide with the international conference Rhythms of the Land: Indigenous Knowledge, Science, and Thriving Together in a Changing Climate, held at Cornell University in October 2021. The exhibition emphasized Indigenous ways of knowing and deployed the works of lesser-known artists from around the world to build greater understanding of and empathy for their communities' often overlooked histories and perspectives. A collaboration of three Johnson Museum curators and an expert on global Indigenous art, the exhibition presented 20 works by artists responding to environmental challenges occurring in their countries and communities and was conceived as part of the program of conference events that culminated in the dance, music, and video work Blood, Water, Earth created and performed by Santee Smith. Emphasizing impacts of colonialism, neocolonialism, geopolitical forces, and industries, the artworks reveal the consequences of environmental damage on the food production, security, cultural independence, and general well-being of communities who have contributed the least to the current crisis but feel its effects most acutely. The concept of struggle for environmental justice binds together all the visual artists represented in Art and Environmental Struggle. When viewed in the context of the ecological calendar model, the compelling ways in which visual and performing artists confront these topics through an expression of Indigenous ecological knowledge, environmental stewardship, and place-rooted traditions, present a diverse but resilient perspective and offer a methodology of hope to address this most pressing of issues.

Влияние стратегического партнерства АУКУС на геополитическую ситуацию в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе

The purpose of the AUKUS strategic alliance is to develop cooperation between the member countries (U.S., UK and Australia) in the field of security and defence in the Indo-Pacific region. The agreement provides for the supply of submarines powered by nuclear reactors to Australia. The emergence of this new strategic alliance was caused by the following factors: the increased power of China in the region; the weakening of the U.S. position in the Indo-Pacific; the desire of the UK to implement the “global Britain” strategy in practice; and the need for the U.S. to have reliable allies to contain China. These factors reveal the true purpose of AUKUS—containment of China and opposition to its active policy in the region. In this article, the author uses comparative analysis to reveal the different goals and geopolitical interests of the AUKUS countries. The systematic approach helps to describe the essence of the complex developing geopolitical system of the Indo-Pacific region.The theories of new institutionalism and constructivism make it possible to identify both continuity and gaps in the security policy and foreign policy of regional actors. Australia’s participation in the AUKUS allows it to: strengthen its political ties with influential partners—the United States and Great Britain; receive additional security guarantees from them in the context of increased activity of Chinese policy in the region; raise the country’s status in the regional hierarchy; and strengthen its defence capability. Australia’s entry into the AUKUS means the formation of a new, anti-Chinese strategy in the region. For the UK, membership in the AUKUS allows it to: expand its naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region; strengthen its special relations with the United States; improve its image, which was shaken after the country’s exit from the EU; and restore traditional ties with Australia. For the United States, AUKUS is the implementation of the strategy of “pivot” to Asia and the creation of a new alliance that has greater opportunities for military-strategic cooperation in the face of the threat from China to use the Pacific Ocean to oust the United States from a leading position. There are some possible geopolitical consequences of creating AUKUS for the region. They are escalation of tension and the nuclear arms race of the opposing parties; a new cold war with China; expansion of the club of nuclear powers because of Australia; imbalance of geopolitical forces in the region; undermining transatlantic unity; and a common strategy in the foreign policy of European countries and the United States.

Влияние стратегического партнерства АУКУС на геополитическую ситуацию в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе

The purpose of the AUKUS strategic alliance is to develop cooperation between the member countries (U.S., UK and Australia) in the field of security and defence in the Indo-Pacific region. The agreement provides for the supply of submarines powered by nuclear reactors to Australia. The emergence of this new strategic alliance was caused by the following factors: the increased power of China in the region; the weakening of the U.S. position in the Indo-Pacific; the desire of the UK to implement the “global Britain” strategy in practice; and the need for the U.S. to have reliable allies to contain China. These factors reveal the true purpose of AUKUS—containment of China and opposition to its active policy in the region. In this article, the author uses comparative analysis to reveal the different goals and geopolitical interests of the AUKUS countries. The systematic approach helps to describe the essence of the complex developing geopolitical system of the Indo-Pacific region.The theories of new institutionalism and constructivism make it possible to identify both continuity and gaps in the security policy and foreign policy of regional actors. Australia’s participation in the AUKUS allows it to: strengthen its political ties with influential partners—the United States and Great Britain; receive additional security guarantees from them in the context of increased activity of Chinese policy in the region; raise the country’s status in the regional hierarchy; and strengthen its defence capability. Australia’s entry into the AUKUS means the formation of a new, anti-Chinese strategy in the region. For the UK, membership in the AUKUS allows it to: expand its naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region; strengthen its special relations with the United States; improve its image, which was shaken after the country’s exit from the EU; and restore traditional ties with Australia. For the United States, AUKUS is the implementation of the strategy of “pivot” to Asia and the creation of a new alliance that has greater opportunities for military-strategic cooperation in the face of the threat from China to use the Pacific Ocean to oust the United States from a leading position. There are some possible geopolitical consequences of creating AUKUS for the region. They are escalation of tension and the nuclear arms race of the opposing parties; a new cold war with China; expansion of the club of nuclear powers because of Australia; imbalance of geopolitical forces in the region; undermining transatlantic unity; and a common strategy in the foreign policy of European countries and the United States.

A New Scale for Global History

A New Scale for Global History

Ядролық энергетика: қауіпсіздік мәселелері мен геосаяси астарлары

n the modern world, energy is the basis for the development of fundamental industries that determine the progress of social production. Nuclear energy is one of the rational sources of energy in the energy sector. Nuclear power plays a constructive role in meeting the energy needs of the 21st century. To counter the challenges facing nuclear energy today, it is also paramount to identify security and geopolitics issues related to nuclear energy. At the same time, to explain fully the role of nuclear energy, develop a global partnership to coordinate political and technical factors, improve cooperation between governments and export controls at the global level, reduce risks during the operation of nuclear reactors, support nuclear research through investment mechanisms through public partnerships, stimulate safe, economical and reliable use of existing chains of nuclear reactors are among the topical issues. However, geopolitical factors and security issues limit the possibilities of nuclear energy. The article considers that new geopolitical forces, such as development and climate change, can also change the international approach in the interests of nuclear energy. The idea that the goals of global climate change may cause increased interest in nuclear energy, where there is no loss of carbon as a potential source of electricity, is not ignored. Safety issues and waste disposed of after being used as an energy source will also increase doubts about nuclear power. At the same time, the article examines the positive side of this nuclear energy in the history of world development and, in particular, the security situation, which pushes to define an approach to nuclear energy

Developing resilience for small island tourism planning: A qualitative design infusing the sustainability trilogy with three streams of resilience thinking

Overlooked connections between sustainable development goals (SDG) and principles of resilience (POR) drive this case study through theoretical ‘Streams of Resilience’ thinking to expose disjuncts in gastronomy, tourism, and domestic development policy on Ly Son Island Vietnam. Grounded approach qualitative methodology supports critique of tourism developments filtered through sustainability-impact trilogy dimensions. Findings suggest that socio-economic and natural ecosystem ‘slow accumulation impacts’ result from internal and external geo-political forces. The critical carrying capacity issues for Ly Son are compounded: first by the internal success of garlic-based agritourism development; and second, Vietnam’s desire to increase ‘on-Island’, investment in tourism infrastructure as a sovereignty response to external influences in a disputed Eastern Sea. Global mobility dilemmas trigger island community and national dialogues that must go beyond sustainable livelihoods to ‘all-around’ resilient ecosystems.

“Panislamism” as a political factor

This article is devoted to the history of "pan-Islamism", developed in the late XIX century by the Afghan politician Said Jamal al-Din al-Afghani, which emerged in the Middle East and became the ideology of groups operating under the guise of Islam in the XX-XXI centuries. An analysis of the views expressed in the research work of scholars engaged in the interpretation of the doctrine of "Pan-Islamism" in the last century and today. It is reflected in the article the brotherhood and unity of all Muslims, the history of the idea of ​​pan-Islamism, the emergence of two different tendencies towards the ideology of "pan-Islamism", the dominance of the idea of ​​"pan-Islamism" in the Middle East in the late twentieth century. The article also describes the methodological basis of the idea of ​​"pan-Islamism", its pros and cons, the modern image of what is now called "neopanislamism" and the factors that contribute to the rise of Islamophobia. In the last century, "pan-Islamism" emerged as a geopolitical force, considered an imperial ideology in the Ottoman Empire. The reasons for the leadership of the ideology of Islamism, the formation of religious political parties in the Middle East, the idea of ​​"pan-Islamism" and the fact that it has become a weapon of fanatical groups operating under the guise of Islam have been revealed on the basis of philosophical analysis.

A Brief Pastoral Topography for Migrating People.

Like God, humans are always on the move. Migrating people reflect the imago Dei of God the Earthroamer. Unlike God, humans do not always move with freedom as geopolitical forces, from societal disintegration to war and climate change, force migration. The experiences within migration reflect elements of a “personal knowledge” (Michael Polanyi). This essay recognizes that much of the migrating experience may escape verbalization, which not only impacts migrating people but also the scholars and researchers studying migration. Drawing on narratives in the Judeo-Christian tradition, the essay identifies seven pastoral-theological polarities to describe the migrating experience: Anticipation and disappointment; trouble and restoration; curse and blessing; at home and being a stranger; becoming and continuity of being; articulation and silence; and alone and in communitas. These themes are illuminated by pastoral-theological, cultural, psychological, and psychodynamic theories.

The Political Influence Pattern of the “Eurasia Central Region”Based on Syria and Ukraine Events

Due to geopolitical factors, Eurasia is at the center of gravity in international relations and has become the core area of the game of great powers. Focusing on the Syrian and Ukrainian issues, we conduct event research by looking for relevant literature and news materials, and organize and analyze the theme of international organization meetings dedicated to solving these two issues. By creating complex networks, we use quantitative data to analyze the geopolitical forces in central Eurasia and reflect the evolution of the political landscape in the region. We have found that: First, Eurasia is still the center of geopolitics in the world, and the status of land-powered countries will rise. Second, the geopolitical structure of the Eurasian center has begun to take shape as a quadrilateral relationship between the United States and its Asia-Pacific allies (Japan and Australia), the European Union, Russia, and China. Third, the political influence of the United States in Eurasia is declining and its hegemonic status is weakening. China’s political influence has gradually increased, and Russia’s geopolitical influence has declined significantly. The study, on the one hand, clarifies the evolution of the political landscape of the region and gives the reader a clear idea of the involvement of geopolitical forces. On the other hand, it provides some guidance for the future development of the Eurasian countries, especially China.

Amy Kaplan on Realism and the Imperatives of Empire

Amy Kaplan on Realism and the Imperatives of Empire

Energy Transition in Portugal Based on Environmental, Political and Social Factors: Critical Analyses with Uncertainty

Portugal is under an electoral process after the state budget was led in October 2021. At a time when climate change, energy prices, energy poverty and environmental impacts are the focus of discussion and intervention in the other countries of the European Union, Portugal is managed by twelfths and without the possibility of changing public policies. The electoral decision will take place on 30 January 2022 and will then have a set of coalition negotiations, governance program adjustment and presentation of a new state budget for approval and discussion in specialty, and a long period is expected before real changes to the twelfth management system can be made. Among the various themes, the economic, social and environmental impacts of energy, especially oil and its replacement, of future decisions are unknown. Portugal has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 as a contribution to the global and European targets undertaken in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meeting this target requires a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of more than 85% compared to 2005 emissions and a carbon sequestration capacity of 13 Mton. Decarbonisation is also an investment and job creation strategy. By 2030, Portugal is expected to reach a target of 47% renewable energy in gross final energy consumption and a 20% renewable energy target in transport. Accelerate the implementation of the National Energy and Climate Plan 2030 and the Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality 2050, promoting regional roadmaps for carbon neutrality, elaborating five-year carbon budgets that define a multi-year horizon, defining methodologies for assessing the legislative impact on climate action and eliminating administrative constraints that create disproportionate context costs without capital gains. Portugal has exceptional conditions to become an example of environmental sustainability vis-à-vis its European partners. Instead of using the environmental perspective as a weapon against economic development, the dimension of sustainability must be incorporated into the growth model itself. The specificity of Portugal, situated in the far west of Europe and with the Atlantic as its second frontier, makes the transatlantic relationship more important than for any other European country. Not ignoring the geopolitical forces centered on Asia and the Pacific, it is necessary to strengthen the Atlantic community, to deepen the relationship with the US and to strengthen the link to the countries of Latin America, to enhance Portugal's role in the point of access to Europe of goods and energy

The sword of Damocles in global stability

The subject of this paper is the causes and consequences of the Ukrainian crisis. The armed conflict between the two Slavic peoples is a tragic epilogue of decades of processes in the relations between Russia and the United States. NATO's expansion to the east, despite the promises made, has permanently exacerbated the conflict between the two leading military powers. The aim of this research is to discover the essence and cause of the conflict that led to armed actions as well as the theoretical foundation of current geopolitical processes. The concepts of Western geopoliticians, contained in the works of Mackinder and Spikeman, offer an explanation of the ambitions and strategic goals of Anglo-Saxon geopolitics that have not changed since the 19th century. The basic hypothesis is that the long-term economic goals of the dominant geopolitical forces lie behind the Ukrainian crisis. The evolution of Ukraine's geopolitical position, which has been torn between East and West since independence, has been followed chronologically. The permanent deterioration of relations with Russia will eventually lead to an armed conflict. The consequences will be felt most by Ukraine but also by Russia, on which unprecedented sanctions have been imposed. However, there will also be consequences for the European Union, which is deprived of Russian energy and raw materials, world stability, and the overall world economy, which is significantly lowering growth rates. The solution to the deepest political, economic, and military crisis since the Second World War will be reached when the United States and Russia agree on it, with or without the participation of Ukraine.

Factors of Dynamics of Global Political Processes

The article highlights the factors that have either a retarding or accelerating effect on the dynamics of global political processes. The factors that have a retarding effect on the dynamics of global political processes include the following: growing income inequality and social stratification within most countries of the world; the erosion of democracy and the decline in popularity of the Western liberal model of development as a reference model; the growth of support for populism policies; the conflict between globalization and the national interests of the State, especially exacerbated during the pandemic; the policy of protectionism; the crisis of global governance; the spread of ideas of anti-globalism. These factors provoke the trend of globalization. Factors that influence the acceleration of the dynamics of global political processes: increasing inequality between countries and intensifying competition between them; digitalization; an increase in the number and aggravation of global problems, among which climate change occupies a special place; the crisis in the field of global health (all this shows the need for integration and cooperation of countries to overcome them); global migration; expansion of the number of non-state actors; the emergence of the phenomenon of hybrid warfare and the changing nature of conflicts; a new concept of security; the expansion of global consciousness and the ideology of globalism; the idea of multipolarity. These factors prevail in the overall balance and give rise to a tendency of accelerated movement towards a multipolar polycentric world. The interaction of these two groups of factors generates an unstable and nonlinear nature of the dynamics of global political processes. The most important consequence of the acceleration of the dynamics of global political processes is the gradual emergence of a new configuration of the geopolitical landscape and the transformation of the global geopolitical space, the change in the ratio of geopolitical forces and the shift of the center of gravity from West to East.

Integrating Pixels, People, and Political Economy to Understand the Role of Armed Conflict and Geopolitics in Driving Deforestation: The Case of Myanmar

Armed conflict and geopolitics are a driving force of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC), but with considerable variation in deforestation trends between broader and finer scales of analysis. Remotely-sensed annual deforestation rates from 1989 to 2018 are presented at the national and (sub-) regional scales for Kachin State in the north of Myanmar and in Kayin State and Tanintharyi Region in the southeast. We pair our multiscaled remote sensing analysis with our multisited political ecology approach where we conducted field-based interviews in study sites between 2018 and 2020. Our integrated analysis identified three common periods of deforestation spikes at the national and state/region level, but with some notable disparities between regions as well as across and within townships and village tracts. We found the rate and geography of deforestation were most influenced by the territorial jurisdictions of armed authorities, national political economic reforms and timber regulations, and proximity to national borders and their respective geopolitical relations. The absence or presence of ceasefires in the north and southeast did not solely explain deforestation patterns. Rather than consider ceasefire or war as a singular explanatory variable effecting forest cover change, we demonstrate the need to analyze armed conflict as a dynamic multisited and diffuse phenomenon, which is simultaneously integrated into broader political economy and geopolitical forces.

New Reasons for Forced Displacement: A Multimodal Discourse Analysis of the Construction of Refugee Identity

ABSTRACT With the intensification of human processes across the globe, the arrival of the Anthropocene has brought with it significant changes to the human-nature relationship and even greater challenges to particularly vulnerable populations like refugees. Forced to leave their home countries, refugees are now facing environmental and climatic drivers of migration in addition to sociocultural and geopolitical forces. However, in spite of these changes, new narratives of forced displacement and complex refugee identities are often excluded from mediated communications about these important issues. By focusing on the discourse of two distinct objects of analysis, that of nongovernmental organizations and transnational journalism projects across Latin America, this study sought to better understand how news media and important advocates for refugees are framing narratives of forced displacement throughout the region. These findings suggest that complex refugee identities are symbolically annihilated in the construction of news narratives, and new reasons for forced displacement are largely ignored—relying more heavily on homogenous representations and existing frames for Latinx refugees, and only accounting for greater diversity in representations of foreign refugees.

Caught in the Middle of a Global Trade War: Singaporean Consumers’ Country Brand Evaluations

The escalating Sino-American trade war is forcing countries to take sides. Several governments, including Singapore’s, are following a neutral path. Little is known about the trade war’s effects on neutral-country consumers’ perceptions. We sample Singaporean consumers who rate the attributes of different products associated with the country brands of the two belligerents (the P RC and the USA), as well as Japan. Conjoint and ANOVA quantify main and interaction effects. Respondents evaluate products from the USA higher relative to China, but the Japan country brand earns the highest overall evaluations. Respondents highly rate Japanese products on quality and value, but low on product image, like Chinese products. The USA country brand is rated highest on product image but low on product quality and value. Despite Singapore’s neutral policy, consumers have strong impressions of country brands in the Sino-American trade war. Findings have implications for marketing practitioners navigating geopolitical forces.

Геополитические вызовы российской Арктике при углеводородном освоении территории

The article is devoted to the issues of geopolitical risks (GPR) in the hydrocarbon development of the Russian Arctic. The authors pay special attention to the analysis of modern geopolitical and geostrategic challenges of the Arctic region development. The article identifies the key geopolitical factors that affect the sustainable development of the Arctic and analyzes the similarities and differences in the geostrategic positions of the Arctic Five. One of the most important factors of the XXI century that determines the alignment and interaction of various geopolitical forces is the struggle for resources. In this regard, an increase in GPR in the Arctic, related to its resource potential, is inevitable. For oil and gas industry facilities, GPR can be transformed into opposite environmental factors in the form of additional opportunities or threats, which the authors identify in detail for each type of risk. The authors focus on such positions of the GPR, which are related to ensuring access and obtaining control rights over the Arctic's hydrocarbon resources from different countries, the uncertainty of the legal status of the Arctic region, and the use of geoecological risks (GER) as manipulative priorities of attention to Russia's actions in the Arctic.