Abstract
Armed conflict and geopolitics are a driving force of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC), but with considerable variation in deforestation trends between broader and finer scales of analysis. Remotely-sensed annual deforestation rates from 1989 to 2018 are presented at the national and (sub-) regional scales for Kachin State in the north of Myanmar and in Kayin State and Tanintharyi Region in the southeast. We pair our multiscaled remote sensing analysis with our multisited political ecology approach where we conducted field-based interviews in study sites between 2018 and 2020. Our integrated analysis identified three common periods of deforestation spikes at the national and state/region level, but with some notable disparities between regions as well as across and within townships and village tracts. We found the rate and geography of deforestation were most influenced by the territorial jurisdictions of armed authorities, national political economic reforms and timber regulations, and proximity to national borders and their respective geopolitical relations. The absence or presence of ceasefires in the north and southeast did not solely explain deforestation patterns. Rather than consider ceasefire or war as a singular explanatory variable effecting forest cover change, we demonstrate the need to analyze armed conflict as a dynamic multisited and diffuse phenomenon, which is simultaneously integrated into broader political economy and geopolitical forces.
Highlights
Armed conflict is a critical driver in Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC); yet, it is understudied and poorly understood
Despite such a high prevalence of tropical forests situated in armed conflict settings, few LULCC studies consider how widespread violence and other conflict-related drivers, such as economic concessions granted to armed actors, as well as wider geopolitical forces influence deforestation trends
We describe below how Kachin State’s deforestation crisis in many ways paralleled the country’s trend, but with considerable variation due to its armed conflict and geopolitical dynamics that were specific to the north
Summary
Armed conflict is a critical driver in Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC); yet, it is understudied and poorly understood. A recent global study by CIFOR found that an estimated 40% of tropical forests are currently located in countries with active violent conflict [1] Despite such a high prevalence of tropical forests situated in armed conflict settings, few LULCC studies consider how widespread violence and other conflict-related drivers, such as economic concessions granted to armed actors, as well as wider geopolitical forces influence deforestation trends. Baumann and Kuemmerle conducted an extensive literature review on armed conflict and LULCC and found that “armed conflict effects can lead to both more intensive and less intensive land use” [12]. This is because armed conflict itself is rarely a direct driver of LULCC. The growing body of scholarship on the relationship between LULCC and armed conflict generally
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