Land Use Land Cover Changes and Its drivers in Gojeb River Catchment, Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia

Understanding the impacts of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and their drivers is crucial for sustainable management of natural resources. Thus, this rigorous study aimed to examine the trends, drivers, and consequences of land use land cover changes (LULC) in the Lake Ziway catchment, central rift valley of Ethiopia. The study followed a mixed- methodological systematic and justified approach that included remote sensing and GIS techniques, household surveys, focus group discussions, and in-depth interviews. The rigorous study shows that the conversion of forest land into agricultural and settlement lands is the major detected LULC change over the last 30 years in the catchment. Cultivated land has increased by 40.60% and settlement and plantation lands have increased by 61.54% and 60%, respectively. On the other hand, forest land decreased by 54.85% and grazing land have decreased by 15.85% respectively. Water bodies and wetlands have also decreased by 8.70% and 19.32% area coverage, respectively. Both the direct and indirect driving forces of the LULC changes were identified. The study also indicates that the participation of local communities in watershed management is low. The study further indicates that LULC changes observed in the Lake Ziway Catchment had statistically and practically significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. Over all, the rigorous study showed the changes in land use land cover and its drivers were common in Lake Ziway Catchment. Therefore, appropriate policies and strategies are required to address LULC change impacts and enhance sustainable utilization and management of the Lake Ziway catchment.

Climate change and land use land cover (LULC) changes are recognised as two of the most significant causes of environmental change. Climate change and LULC changes are related to one another. Land use change may drive climate change, and a changing climate may result in land cover changes. Climate change and LULC changes are believed to influence soil erosion. This chapter analyses the impacts of climate and LULC changes on soil erosion. The causes and effects of climate change on precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and radiative forcing are discussed. The chapter includes the impacts of climate change on soil characteristics, vegetation cover, runoff, floods, and droughts and extends the impacts of these changes on water and wind erosion. The chapter explores the human alterations of LULC changes in terms of changes in the forest cover, alterations in agricultural lands, increase in urban areas, and decrease in wetland areas. The influence of the LULC changes on soil erosion and sediment production processes is discussed. Also, the combined impact of climate and LULC changes on soil erosion is explored, and mitigation strategies like sustainable land management practices and appropriate policy incentives to conserve soil are discussed.


 
 
 Floods are one of the most common natural disasters worldwide. Apart from rainfall, Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes too are a main contributory factor for floods. This study attempted to understand the link between floods and LULC changes in Kalu river basin, which is the second largest river basin and an area that experiences recurrent floods in Sri Lanka. We studied peak water levels, number of flood events, changes in land use types and impacts in rapidly urbanizing two districts, Rathnapura (upper basin) and Kalutara (lower basin) during 2001-2020. The satellite images (LANDSAT) were obtained for 2001, 2009, 2015 and 2020 and land use classification was done using ArcGIS and Remote Sensing Tools. Main land use types and their transformations were investigated and ground-truthing was carried out. Accordingly, the main types of land uses identified were Natural Vegetation and forests (NV), Settlements (ST- housing and industrial lands), Cultivated Lands (CL), Water Bodies (WB) and Bare Lands (BL). The results indicated that the most drastic change was found in the natural areas (NV) and they have diminished while the lands with anthropogenic impacts (ST, CL and BL) have increased across years. The NV had occupied the highest land area in 2001 (42.4%) and has reduced by 14.2% by 2020. The ST and CL have increased by 8.6 % and 5.2% respectively. The monthly rainfall of Rathnapura and Kalutara (Source: Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka) has increased with time, which is a main reason for the increasing peak water levels of these areas (Source: Department of Irrigation, Sri Lanka). However, a significant correlation also exists between the change of the settlement area with the peak river water levels in the lower basin (p=0.03, R2=99%; regression analysis). Rathnapura has experienced 3 major floods (floods above the high water alert level) from 2001-2020, while 16 major floods have occurred in Kalutara. During the major flood in 2017, the number of child deaths in Rathnapura was 14 while in Kalutara it was 24. Accordingly, the LULC changes of the whole basin along with rainfall seem to influence on the severity of floods in Kalutara more, as it is located in the lowest elevation level. When natural lands are transformed to anthropogenic- impacted areas with disturbances to the water cycle, increased impervious surfaces, reduced water storage capacities and loss of natural drainage, the flood risk tends to increase. Proactive approaches including proper land use planning and rainwater storage are urgently needed as the climate change too would trigger more floods. Thus, the flood mitigatory actions, especially, in the lower river basin should be a priority to ensure resilience and sustainability.
 Keywords: Kalu river basin, Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes, Floods
 
 

This paper discusses results of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project conducted in 2008 to quantify and assess land use land cover (LULC) change from 1974 to 2008. Led by NASA Stennis Space Center, this project involved multiple Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) partners, including the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (NEP), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), and the NOAA Coastal Services Center. The Mobile Bay region provides great economic and ecologie benefits to the Nation, including important coastal habitat for a broad diversity of fisheries and wildlife. The Mobile Bay region has experienced considerable LULC change since the latter half of the 20th century. Accompanying this change has been urban expansion and a reduction of rural land uses. Much of this LULC change (largely urbanization) has reportedly occurred since the landfall of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. Regional urbanization threatens the estuary's water quality and aquatic-habitat dependent biota, including commercial fisheries and avian wildlife. Coastal conservation and urban land use planners require additional information on historical LULC change to support coastal habitat restoration and resiliency management efforts. This project quantified and assessed LULC change across the 34-year time frame and at decadal and mid-decadal scales. Nine Landsat images were employed to compute LULC products because of their availability and suitability for the application. The project also used Landsat-based national LULC products, including coastal LULC products from NOAA's Coastal Change & Analysis Program (C-CAP), available at 5-year intervals since 1995. Our study was initiated in part because C-CAP LULC products were not available to assess the region's urbanization prior to 1995 and subsequent to post-Hurricane Katrina in 2006. The study area included the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties that encompass Mobile Bay. Each date of Landsat data was classified using an end-user defined modified Anderson level 1 classification scheme. LULC classifications were refined using a decision rule approach in conjunction with available C-CAP products. Individual dates of LULC classifications were validated by image interpretation of stratified random locations on raw Landsat color composite imagery in combination with higher resolution remote sensing and in situ reference data. Overall classification accuracies for five separate single-date products ranged from 83% to 89%. The results of the LULC change analysis indicate that during the 34-year study period, urban areas increased from 96,688 to 150,227 acres, representing a 55.37% increase, or 1.63% per annum. Most of the identified urban expansion regarded the conversion of rural forest and agriculture to urban cover types. Final LULC mapping and metadata products were produced for the entire study area as well as for multiple watersheds of concern within the study area. The final project products, including LULC trend information, were incorporated into the Mobile Bay NEP State of the Bay report. Products and metadata were also transferred to NOAA NCDDC to allow free online accessibility and use by GOMA partners and by the public.

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes analysis is one of the most useful methodologies to understand how the land was used in the past years, what types of detections are to be expected in the future, as well as the driving forces and processes behind these changes. In Ethiopia, Africa, the rapid variations of LULC observed in the last decades are mainly due to population pressure, resettlement programs, climate change, and other human- and nature-induced driving forces. Anthropogenic activities are the most significant factors adversely changing the natural status of the landscape and resources, which exerts unfavourable and adverse impacts on the environment and livelihood. The main goal of the present work is to review previous studies, discussing the spatiotemporal LULC changes in Ethiopian basins, to find out common points and gaps that exist in the current literature, to be eventually addressed in the future. A total of 25 articles, published from 2011 to 2020, were selected and reviewed, focusing on LULC classification using ArcGIS and ERDAS imagine software by unsupervised and maximum likelihood supervised classification methods. Key informant interview, focal group discussions, and collection of ground truth information using ground positioning systems for data validation were the major approaches applied in most of the studies. All the analysed research showed that, during the last decades, Ethiopian lands changed from natural to agricultural land use, waterbody, commercial farmland, and built-up/settlement. Some parts of forest land, grazing land, swamp/wetland, shrubland, rangeland, and bare/ rock out cropland cover class changed to other LULC class types, mainly as a consequence of the increasing anthropogenic pressure. In summary, these articles confirmed that LULC changes are a direct result of both natural and human influences, with anthropogenic pressure due to globalisation as the main driver. However, most of the studies provided details of LULC for the past decades within a specific spatial location, while they did not address the challenge of forecasting future LULC changes at the watershed scale, therefore reducing the opportunity to develop adequate basin-wide management strategies for the next years.

It is critically important to quantify the impact of land use land cover (LULC) changes on hydrology, and to understand the mechanism by which LULC changes affect the hydrological process in a river basin. To accurately simulate the hydrological process for a watershed like the Wei River Basin, where the surface characteristics are highly modified by human activities, we present an alternative approach of time-varying parameters in a hydrological model to reflect the changes in underlying land surfaces. The spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on watershed streamflow are quantified, and the mechanism that connects the changes in runoff generation and streamflow with LULC is explored. Results indicate the following: (1) time-varying parameters’ calibration is effective to ensure model validity when dealing with significant changes in underlying land surfaces; (2) LULC changes have significant impacts on the watershed streamflow, especially on the streamflow during the dry season; (3) the expansion of cropland is the major contributor to the reduction of surface water, causing decline in annual and dry seasonal streamflow. However, the shrinkage of woodland is the main driving force that decreases the soil water, thus contributing to a small increase in streamflow during the dry season.

This study investigated the influence of topographic variability on land use land cover (LULC) change in Hugumburda national forest priority area. The study was based on three periods of LULC maps derived from satellite imageries: Landsat TM for 1985, Landsat ETM+ for 2000 and Landsat OLI for 2015, and topographic attributes derived from ASTER digital elevation model. Supervised image classification was carried out using Maximum Likelihood classifier algorithm. Changes in LULC vis-a-vis topographic variability (altitude, slope and aspect) were assessed based on overlay analysis in a GIS environment. Six LULC classes were identified with an overall accuracy of 93% and Kappa statistics of 0.90. Shrubland and forest land were the dominant LULC types which respectively accounted for about 36% and 26% in 1985 and 39% and 33% in 2000. Forest land (35%) followed by shrubland (30%) continued to be the dominant LULC types in 2015. Between 1985 and 2015, about 23% of the study area showed changes in LULC which constitute increase in forest cover by about 715 ha mainly at the expense of shrubland. Steep slopes, higher altitudes and Northeast aspect were important topographic attributes where marked increased in forest cover was observed. The increase in forest cover along steep slopes, higher altitudes and Northeast aspect can be used to stimulate further expansion of forest cover along similar topographic conditions. This study demonstrated that topographic variability plays an important role in controlling LULC changes. Detailed investigation of drivers of the increased in forest cover is required to scale up the success in other regions with similar climatic and topographic settings.

Land use land cover (LULC) changes resulting from copper exploration in Kitwe District, Copperbelt Province has adversely impacted the environment. To understand LULC change dynamics associated with mining activities, this study mapped LULC changes using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) from 1990 to 2020. In addition, the Zambian legal framework for mine closure was assessed in terms of adequacy and comprehensiveness. A remote sensing analysis using Landsat TM (1990, 2000, and 2010) and OLI (2020) images was performed and the GEE Random Forest classifier algorithm was employed to detect LULC changes. Then, transition matrices and overall changes were calculated for each LULC class. The LULC classification had an overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of 82.47% and 0.78, respectively. In total, 45.2% of the district area (360.92 km2) experienced LULC changes from 1990 to 2020. The overall change indicates that the areas of built-up area, bare land, and grassland/pasture/agricultural land gained 35.84, 14.67, and 43.53 km2, respectively, while forest lost 95.30 km2, with the major driver being the privatization of mining companies. Several concerns regarding the mine closure process practiced in Zambia have principally been raised to the government. Although the legislation generally conformed to international best practices, a gap involving various pieces of legislation, overlapping requirements, and different interpretations of the laws by different governmental departments makes the system complex and unmanageable. An area of concern is the government’s capability and competence to implement legislation. Ineffective law enforcement, that is, the inadequacy of the legislation, is to blame for LULC changes in mining areas, resulting in mining corporations not paying attention to the changes made, particularly regarding mine closures. This study provides decision-makers and land use planners with baseline knowledge on LULC changes that can be valuable for future mining legislation and how these legislations can be effectively executed to ensure sustainable mine closure.

Forest plays a vital role in carbon sequestration and climate regulation. A crucial tool for managing forest, particularly in protected regions, is keeping track of how the land cover changes in natural places. Using geospatial approaches, such as remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS), the present study has revealed spatio-temporal changes in land use categories and forest cover in the Chandaka National Park of Odisha, India, throughout the period of 1980-2020. The Landsat, LISS III and Sentinel satellite images of the year 1980, 2000 and 2020 were utilized respectively to map five land use land cover categories i.e. deciduous broadleaf forest, crop land, mixed forest, scrub land and water bodies in this preserved area. The satellite images were classified using a Supervised Classification method using Maximum Likelihood algorithm and ground control points (GCPs) were used for the spatial statistical analyses. The overall accuracies of the classification method in land cover categories in year 1980, 2000 and 2020 were 90.45%, 92.76% and 94.68%, respectively. Elsewhere, in order to study land use land cover (LULC) change and loss in forest of the Chandaka National Park, LULC classification, per-pixel scales post classification and self-knowledge on the LULC change process were used. The LULC change detection results showed that deciduous broadleaf forest decreased from 179.01 sq. km (76.66%) in 1980 to 132.75 sq. km (56.85%) in 2020, while mixed forest cover increased by 8.17 sq. km (3.50%) in 1980 to 38.84 sq. km (16.63%) in 2020. Crop land, Scrub land and Water bodies were also increased by 3.34%, 3.27% and 0.07%, respectively. Two significant change processes in the area are the logging activities in several places for timber and the conversion of natural forests with plantation. Agriculture expansion in the forest’s periphery is linked to the dramatic decline in forest cover change. The decline in forest cover is also a result of the production of charcoal and lumber exploitation. Overall, our findings indicated that more public awareness and participatory forest management are necessary to preserve Chandaka National Park. This study highlights the use of geospatial technologies in understanding the changes in LULC in the Chandaka National Park.

Globally, land use land cover (LULC) changes are recognized as a key factor contributing to environmental changes. Understanding the LULC changes in river basin areas is essential for river basin management. The present study aims to analyze LULC changes from 1994 to 2024 in the lower part of the Mahananda River basin and predict future LULC scenarios for 2034. The study cast off Landsat imagery and random forest (RF) classification technique for past LULC classification, while the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MA) model was employed for future LULC prediction. Furthermore, a statistical technique, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), was utilized for CA-MC model validation. Results highlight a substantial reduction of vegetation cover of 2249.7 km2 and barren land by 1774.08 km2, while cultivated lands, settlement, and water body increased by 3389.75 km2, 831.81 km2, and 440.8 km2, respectively, over the last three decades, revealing the influences of both natural disturbance and anthropogenic activities. The LULC classification's accuracy was assessed using Kappa coefficient and these values are above 80%, indicating that the LULC classifications in this study are highly reliable. The prediction results reveal a further decrease of vegetation cover at 503.53 km2, a continuous increase of cultivation land at 4725.29 km2, and a settlement area of 919.85 km2 over the future decades. The ROC value of 0.71 suggests that the CA-MC model performs reliably in predicting future LULC scenarios, demonstrating acceptable model accuracy. These comprehensive assessments aid in the creation of suitable land management plans and policies to accomplish or uphold sustainable development in the Mahananda River basin.

<p>Human activities and climate affect the hydrology of a basin. The effect of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change and climate change on streamflow are basin specific. In this study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the effects of LULC and climate change on streamflow in the Netravathi basin, Karnataka, India. The SWAT model, which reasonably simulates the streamflow of a basin, is used for this study. The analysis was done from the year 1990 to 2018. The watershed is delineated by using ALOS PALSAR DEM. Rainfall and temperature obtained from IMD are used as the climate variables. LULC maps were prepared using Landsat images of 1990 and 2018 in order to assess the LULC changes in the basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of built-up (3.82%–6.51%), water bodies (0.76%–0.99%), and agriculture (11.96%–17.89%) increased, whereas that of forest (66.56%–51.7%), fallow (3.82%–6.13%), and barren land (13.07%–16.76%) decreased from 1990 to 2018. The streamflow increased steadily (5.02%) with changes in LULC from 1990 to 2018. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanisation and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, in the catchment during this period. Thus, hydrological modelling integrating climate change and LULC can be used as an effective tool in estimating streamflow of the basin.</p>

In the last few decades, rapid urbanisation has led to Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change, which has had a significant impact on the environment, ecosystem and its key goods and services around the globe. Ecosystem Service (ES) provides a wide range of benefits and advantages to communities and local economies. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes have led to rapid alterations in composition, structure, and ecosystem functions, thereby reducing their capacity to provide essential services. Economic evaluation of ecosystem services is very crucial. Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) are not given as much consideration in urban planning and policymaking, despite the fact that it is well known in the literature that urban ecosystems significantly contribute to human well-being in cities. Using ArcGIS 10.8.1, the LULC changes were computed for Tangail municipality between 2005 and 2023, based on LULC data computed from the Landsat imagery. The Benefits Transfer Approach (BTM) is used to calculate the changes in ESV associated with LULC changes. The research aims to analyse LULC change and assess its impact on ESV at the municipal level, providing a better understanding of how spatial patterns affect ESV. The results show a continuous reduction in ESV during the study periods. Between 2005 and 2023, due to the increase in built-up area, the area increased by about 46.66%. The ESV in Tangail Municipality has decreased from 3.02 million USD to 1.63 million USD during the same period. This study provides valuable insights that can aid in managing land resources and developing plans to mitigate the decline in ESV, ensuring sustainability and long-term ecosystem conservation at the municipal level.

Quantification of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change influence river basin on hydrology will enable local government and policy makers to formulate and implement effective and appropriate strategies to minimize the effect of future LULC change. In this research Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Intervals (SUFI-2) was used for analyzing the LULC changes on the Water balance of Katar and Meki River Basins, in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia. LULC map of 1996 and 2014 was used for the change analysis and the results revealed that the reduction of Forest and expansion of Agriculture and Built-up areas have an influence on the surface water spatial distribution and the water balance components. During the land use change periods, the increment of annual surface runoff from 67.54 mm to 129.14 mm has resulted from Katar river basin and 40.64 mm to 59.56 mm has resulted from Meki river basins. This result has revealed that the above land use changes are the main contributors to the increment of surface runoff on both river basins. With this regard, major changes from the Forested region on both river basins have resulted in runoff depth increment. Forexample, runoff depth increment of 4-53 mm to 10-65 mm on Katar river basin and 2-34 mm to 23-60 mm range from Meki river basin mainly from forested regions resulted. Therefore, LULC change is becoming a serious threat to Katar and Meki river basin, hence appropriate measures should have to be taken for the stabilization of the land cover change with the regional development plan. Furthermore, the outcome of this study serves for policymakers as a valuable information for the planning of best land management strategies and priorities for the region.

The state of Kerala in the southwestern tip of India supports a large population density over its extent. The area has suffered extensive and meteoric land use land cover (LULC) changes from pristine forests to monoculture plantations and settlements. The region, which receives an annual rainfall ~3000 mm, is recording progressively worsening dry season water shortages with steady water table drawdown and increasing peak streamflow as well as number of zero flow days for rivers. A comparative study of the vertical profile of relevant soil physical characteristics of rubber plantations and forests/sacred groves was done using available data. Differences in soil organic matter content and water retention are noticed. The results are examined against changes noticed in the streamflow characteristics of the Vamanapuram river and LULC changes in the Chittar watershed. Chittar is the main tributary of the Vamanapuram river. The implications of such LULC changes for the initiation of flood drought cycles that are increasingly being noticed as getting established in various regions, including Kerala, Sri Lanka, etc. are also examined. Suggestions for mitigation of these negative impacts are also presented.

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change is a complex phenomenon driven by various natural and anthropogenic factors, significantly impacting carbon storage potential. By applying integrated models of ANN-CA Markov, GeoDetector, and InVEST model, this study aimed to analyze LULC change, their driving factors, and implications on carbon storage in the Forest Management Unit (FMU) of Ampang Plampang in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Several data sources were utilized in the modelling approach, including DEM (Digital Elevation Model), topographical map, Landsat imageries (2011, 2016, 2021), measured carbon density (above ground, below ground, soil, dead organic), and socio-economic data (number of populations, farmer, and agricultural land). The dryland forest in the study area constitutes the most extensive LULC that has experienced significant declines due to deforestation, predominantly transforming into agricultural land, and these are predicted to continue until 2031 with different magnitudes. The significant driving factors of LULC change were elevation, population pressure on land, and distance from settlement. The LULC change also greatly influenced the decline of carbon storage historically (2011–2016) and in projected LULC (2026–2031). The conversion of forested areas to non-forest LULCs has released carbon emissions of about 1.89 Mt CO2-eq. The study findings implied that the integration of ANN-CA Markov, GeoDetector, and InVEST models has been helpful for comprehending complicated interactions among LULC change, driving factors, and carbon dynamics. The results also contribute to the scientific knowledge base for land management decision-making and policy formulation. Effective management of LULC changes through low carbon development is suggested to mitigate the loss of carbon storage capacities, foster sustainable development goals (SDGs), support Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), and improve ecosystem resilience.