Energy Transition in Portugal Based on Environmental, Political and Social Factors: Critical Analyses with Uncertainty

Abstract

Portugal is under an electoral process after the state budget was led in October 2021. At a time when climate change, energy prices, energy poverty and environmental impacts are the focus of discussion and intervention in the other countries of the European Union, Portugal is managed by twelfths and without the possibility of changing public policies. The electoral decision will take place on 30 January 2022 and will then have a set of coalition negotiations, governance program adjustment and presentation of a new state budget for approval and discussion in specialty, and a long period is expected before real changes to the twelfth management system can be made. Among the various themes, the economic, social and environmental impacts of energy, especially oil and its replacement, of future decisions are unknown. Portugal has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 as a contribution to the global and European targets undertaken in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Meeting this target requires a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of more than 85% compared to 2005 emissions and a carbon sequestration capacity of 13 Mton. Decarbonisation is also an investment and job creation strategy. By 2030, Portugal is expected to reach a target of 47% renewable energy in gross final energy consumption and a 20% renewable energy target in transport. Accelerate the implementation of the National Energy and Climate Plan 2030 and the Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality 2050, promoting regional roadmaps for carbon neutrality, elaborating five-year carbon budgets that define a multi-year horizon, defining methodologies for assessing the legislative impact on climate action and eliminating administrative constraints that create disproportionate context costs without capital gains. Portugal has exceptional conditions to become an example of environmental sustainability vis-à-vis its European partners. Instead of using the environmental perspective as a weapon against economic development, the dimension of sustainability must be incorporated into the growth model itself. The specificity of Portugal, situated in the far west of Europe and with the Atlantic as its second frontier, makes the transatlantic relationship more important than for any other European country. Not ignoring the geopolitical forces centered on Asia and the Pacific, it is necessary to strengthen the Atlantic community, to deepen the relationship with the US and to strengthen the link to the countries of Latin America, to enhance Portugal's role in the point of access to Europe of goods and energy