Effective Management Decisions Research Articles

Methodological approaches to economic and mathematical modelling of crop rotation in the development of a land management project that provides ecological and economic justification for crop rotation

The proposed research paper systemises methodological approaches to optimisation and dynamic modelling of crop rotation in the development of land management projects that provide ecological and economic justification of crop rotation, since the crop rotation models proposed to date do not solve the task in general, but only in certain specific cases. In this regard, the need to develop full-fledged software products with a user interface integrated into existing information and accounting databases of agricultural formations is substantiated. It is proved that economic and mathematical modelling of crop rotations should be developed by improving the methodology of dynamic crop rotations, which will allow farmers to analyse the economic efficiency of various alternative options for crop rotation under specific natural and economic conditions and constraints, as it is a promising interactive tool for substantiating management production decisions based on optimisation algorithms and analysis of large amounts of accumulated retrospective data. The approaches, criteria and limitations of the economic and mathematical model of crop rotation in the development of land management projects that provide ecological and economic justification of crop rotation are substantiated. The proposed economic and mathematical model with its objective function, constraints and algorithms is aimed at a comprehensive solution of issues related to production planning and rational land use. The presented model provides ample opportunities for further optimisation of the system of making effective managerial decisions in the agricultural sector and can serve as a basis for solving the problems of investment justification and development of agricultural land use.

Теоретичні засади інноваційного управління у сфері надрокористування

The article summarizes the theoretical foundations of innovation management in the sphere of subsoil use. It is noted that managerial innovations are still fuzzy and insufficiently studied in management theory and practice. As innovative management components emerged, people began to better understand that management is an important integrated factor that affects the expected performance of an economic entity. Without management, the creation and implementation of effective technologies, as well as a reasonable combination of social, informational, accounting, financial, economic and commercial factors are impossible. It is noted that, taking into account the specifics of the sphere of subsoil use, the generalization of approaches to innovation management allowed to identify that the most important is the organizational approach, which enables management to plan its activities, make effective managerial decisions on the basis of innovation. The author’s own definition of «subsoil use» is presented, which should be understood as the economic, managerial activity of State institutions, local governments, business entities, society and its individual groups, households regarding the use of subsoil for their own or commercial needs within the framework of geological exploration, mining, underground works that are not related to the extraction of minerals, protection of subsoil in scientific, geological, cultural, aesthetic, sanitary and hygienic spheres, collection of materials and samples for various purposes of scientific and practical activities. It is determined that innovation management in the sphere of subsoil use is the process of managing significant changes in labor products, means of production, services and other innovative activity, which is one of the main directions of development of social production. It is concluded that innovative management of subsoil use helps to achieve synergistic results in the industry. This includes the achievement of socioeconomic and business values and is important for the development of policies that determine how to effectively implement innovative technologies in the management system of economic entities.

ОРГАНІЗАЦІЯ ТА ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ МОНІТОРИНГУ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА

In contemporary business settings, it's essential to establish a dynamic information and analytical framework to facilitate effective managerial decisions. This involves implementing a monitoring system to track internal processes and external factors, providing comprehensive and timely data for decision-making. The article aims to outline the theoretical and methodological underpinnings of such a monitoring system, focusing on its practical application in monitoring, diagnosing, modeling, and managing various aspects of a company's operations. Drawing from scholarly works and diverse sources, including periodicals and online materials, the study employs methods such as comparative analysis and content analysis. It argues that modern enterprise monitoring should not merely be an information system but should also serve as a vital support for informed decisionmaking. The article proposes a two-level monitoring system comprising an information base and methodological framework to fulfill evaluation, analytical, prognostic, and management functions. It identifies and examines the structural components of this system, including the database and knowledge base. Furthermore, it defines key elements such as goals, objects, subjects, principles, and functions, forming the conceptual foundation of the monitoring system. Building upon these foundations, the article presents a model for the enterprise's monitoring system as an integral part of the decision-making process. The practical significance of this conceptual model lies in its ability to develop a comprehensive system for monitoring, evaluating, and forecasting enterprise activities, thereby facilitating timely management decisions. Effective implementation of such a system requires robust technological infrastructure, skilled personnel, and organizational commitment to data-driven decision-making practices. Additionally, ongoing evaluation and refinement are necessary to adapt the monitoring system to evolving business environments and information needs. Overall, the integration of advanced monitoring capabilities into managerial processes enhances agility, resilience, and competitiveness in today's dynamic business landscape.

ПРОМИСЛОВЕ ШПИГУНСТВО: ТЕРМІНОЛОГІЧНИЙ АСПЕКТ

The article examines the theoretical aspects of industrial espionage in the terminological context. It substantiates the importance of protecting trade secrets from industrial espionage against the background of an increase in their share in the structure of the intellectual property portfolio and strengthening their contribution to the competitiveness of innovative companies in the global economic space. The paper also examines the essence of industrial espionage through the prism of comparison with other categories, namely, economic espionage, corporate espionage, and competitive intelligence. It explores different approaches to the interpretation of these categories. The analysis reveals the existence of variants of their identification, synonymous use, and a certain intersection of essential features. Based on the results of the comparison of industrial espionage, economic espionage, corporate espionage, and competitive intelligence, it is established that these categories are independent and non-identical, with certain common features, which is a manifestation of the dialectical combination of the general and the particular for various forms of gaining access to commercially valuable information. The publication highlights important features of industrial espionage that reveal its essential characteristics, including: systematic, planned nature of implementation; typically, a high level of organisation and preparation; targeted focus on gaining competitive advantage/ income; unauthorised access to information that constitutes a trade secret; violation of legal and ethical standards by individuals and legal entities for private purposes; hidden nature; a wide range of types and tools; no sectoral restrictions on the scope of the activity; a significant range and duration of negative consequences; difficulty in assessing actual losses, etc. The identification of the main features of industrial espionage is the basis for its understanding as a distinct category, which will help to strengthen the theoretical and methodological basis for innovative companies to make effective management decisions on building an effective system of protection against industrial espionage.

ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ МЕТОДА КАРТИРОВАНИЯ В СЕЛЬСКОМ ХОЗЯЙСТВЕ КАК ИННОВАЦИОННОГО ОРИЕНТИРА МАРКЕТИНГА

The development and implementation of network maps in agriculture in the functioning of agrifood markets plays an important role at the stage of transformation and innovative development of agricultural enterprises. The introduction of network cards makes it possible to optimize the activities of agricultural enterprises by structuring all information flows, while incoming and outgoing information is optimally and efficiently structured and processed. The results of this processing make it possible to make effective management decisions in a timely manner on the development and implementation of innovations in the activities and functioning of agri-food markets. The use of the mapping method in agriculture based on the development and implementation of network maps makes it possible to effectively carry out such processes as planning and forecasting, monitoring and evaluation, marketing activities and marketing policy.

Нейромережеві прогностичні технології класифікації криз та оцінки банкрутства суб’єктів торговельної галузі

The ongoing war in Ukraine has led to a significant increase in the number of business bankruptcies. Timely assessment of bankruptcy risk is critical for making effective management decisions. The aim of the study is to develop an adaptive model for assessing the propensity of an enterprise to bankruptcy based on fuzzy neural networks, taking into account the specifics of the Ukrainian market in wartime. To achieve the aim, several stages were carried out: formation of a sample of enterprises in the trade industry; determination of crisis classes using cluster analysis; building a fuzzy neural network using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox package in MATLAB; training the network on historical data and testing on new data. At the first stage, a sample of enterprises is formed, with the help of which the model will be trained. At the second stage, classes of crisis (threat of bankruptcy) are formed. At the third stage, with the help of the apparatus of fuzzy neural networks, a membership function with a certain set of parameters is formed. With the help of this function, it is possible to attribute this or that enterprise with a certain degree of belonging to one of the classes of crisis formed at the previous stage. The fourth stage is to check the adequacy of the obtained model and the possibility of its practical use. At the fifth stage, the practical implementation of the model is carried out: with the help of the membership function, the propensity of the researched enterprise to bankruptcy is determined, that is, to what extent the studied enterprise belongs to one or another class of crisis. As a result of the application of the proposed algorithm, a fuzzy neural network was built, which used the financial indicators of Ukrainian enterprises. To train the model, a dataset was used that included 12 enterprises in the trade industry. The developed model allows to classify enterprises by the level of financial sustainability with high accuracy. Fuzzy neural networks have been shown to be an effective tool for predicting bankruptcy under uncertainty. The use of fuzzy neural networks made it possible to take into account uncertainty and adapt to changes in the external environment. The obtained results indicate the perspective of using fuzzy neural networks to assess the financial sustainability of enterprises. The developed model can be used as a tool for early detection of signs of crisis and making timely managerial decisions.

РОЛЬ ГОСУДАРСТВА В ПРОДВИЖЕНИИ ПРОГРАММ ЗДОРОВОГО ПИТАНИЯ: МИРОВОЙ ОПЫТ

The article is devoted to the analysis of public policy measures to promote the principles of healthy eating among the population, which has become an integral part of the daily activities of public authorities and local governments in many developed countries. The authors identify the key determinants of people's dietary patterns; explore foreign experience of effective management decisions on changing the eating behavior of population of different countries (including economic, financial, educational, administrative and legislative mechanisms); present a typology of public policy measures available to the state to encourage the population to eat healthily (both at the federal and regional levels); identify the most effective of them. The possibilities of applying international experience in modern Russian realities are discussed and recommendations are formulated for improving public policy aimed at forming a model of healthy nutrition for Russians.

A systematic approach to evaluating the strategic potential of agricultural enterprises

Modern scientific approaches to evaluation of the strategic capacity category are explored in the paper. The relevance of the problem of evaluating strategic potential of an enterprise operating in the agricultural sector for the development of effective management decisions is underlined. A systematic approach to evaluating the strategic potential is suggested, within which the theoretical foundations and methodological approaches to assessing the strategic potential of a company are considered, factors influencing the strategic capacity framework are identified, and evaluation criteria are determined. Practical recommendations are developed for evaluating the level of strategic capacity for selecting a development strategy in relation to agricultural businesses. The results obtained are original since they show the effects of strategic potential evaluation for the specific company. As a result of the study, a model for assessing the level of strategic capacity of an agricultural enterprise is developed based on a systematic approach.

THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MARKETING MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS IN AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

The article examines the components of the marketing activity management system and makes proposals for management decisions regarding the implementation of marketing tools in the activities of agricultural enterprises. It was determined that for agrarian enterprises, the use of marketing tools based on marketing management contributes to its flexible adaptation to changes in the environment, solving strategic tasks of further effective development and maintaining the level of competitiveness in the market. The authors present their own vision of the essence of marketing management and measures that are the basis of marketing activity management. It was established that marketing management at the enterprise is implemented using a set of marketing tools. Proposals regarding the adoption of effective management decisions for each component of the marketing complex are provided. Practical recommendations on the organization of the system of marketing activities for agricultural enterprises have been formed.

СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ СТОЛИЧНЫХ ГОРОДОВ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ: ВОПРОСЫ ОЦЕНКИ

The article examines the social and economic development of territorial entities. The authors focus on the metropolitan cities of Russia, i.e., the administrative centers of the entities of the Russian Federation. The article examines the existing economic and legal literature on the problems and prospects of the social and economic development of cities. The existing limitations in the application of certain assessment methods regarding the territorial aspect are outlined. The authors have developed a methodology for multi-criteria assessment of the social and economic development level (SED index) of cities based on the assessment of key components of the social and economic development of metropolitan cities in the Russian Federation. The methodology was tested based on municipal statistics data from 83 metropolitan cities in the Russian Federation. The study covered the period from 2019 to 2021. The findings were assessed by comparing cities ‒ objects of the study, grouped by population size. The analysis demonstrated differentiation in the level of development of metropolitan cities, with the highest dispersion of values observed in the group of big cities with populations ranging from 250 thousand to one million people. Furthermore, the study found the general downward trend in the dynamics of the level of social and economic development of metropolitan cities in the Russian Federation over the studied period. The proposed methodology can be used to conduct studies of the social and economic development of territorial entities, monitor the level of social and economic development of cities, and make effective management decisions to reduce the excessive distance between city development levels.

ОЦІНКА АНТИКРИЗОВОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ БУДІВЕЛЬНИМ ПІДПРИЄМСТВОМ

The article investigates and summarizes the main types of risks of a construction enterprise depending on the causes of their occurrence: external and internal. It is also emphasized that determining the conditions and factors that cause the emergence of crisis phenomena will ensure the management of information that will help the management of a construction enterprise to make effective management decisions before the emergence of crisis situations. The essence and main features of crisis management of an enterprise are researched. Modern approaches to enterprise management in crisis situations are considered. The necessity of organizing a system of crisis management at the enterprises of the construction industry is substantiated, due to the important role of their activities for the economy of Ukraine. The directions of preventing crisis phenomena and the threat of bankruptcy at construction enterprises are determined, namely: establishing an effective communication process with clients, contractors and other stakeholders, which will help to avoid misunderstandings and ensure the successful implementation of projects; the use of modern project management tools will allow for more accurate and coordinated planning; the use of modern technologies for automation and process control can greatly facilitate routine tasks and increase productivity. To assess the likelihood of the onset of crisis phenomena, the following analytical methods of determining the financial condition were used: horizontal and vertical analysis of the financial statements of the studied construction enterprise. Certain economic and mathematical models are used to predict the sustainability of the enterprise, to anticipate and analyze potential crisis phenomena. Each enterprise should choose these methods and models individually depending on its strategic plans and objectives. The study proposes the practical use of Tereshchenko O. O.'s model for diagnosing the crisis condition of a construction enterprise, which takes into account its industry specifics and is easy to use.

ЦИФРОВІЗАЦІЯ СОЦІАЛЬНОЇ СФЕРИ В КОНТЕКСТІ ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ ДЕРЖАВИ

The study is devoted to the scientific substantiation of the need for digitalisation of the social sphere and improvement of the processes of providing social services, guarantees and payments on this basis as part of ensuring the economic security of Ukraine against the background of negative economic and geopolitical factors of influence and deterioration of the general operating environment. Within the framework of the purpose of the scientific research and on the basis of the method of theoretical generalisation, the practical value of digitalisation of the social sphere is argued through the prism of automation and simplification of procedures for providing social services and benefits, optimisation of their implementation costs and time saving for each participant in social relations. Based on the method of comparison, the author identifies the problems of functioning of the social sphere within the framework of digitalisation. The author analyses the amount of budget expenditures for the implementation of such measures. The main purpose and a qualitatively new approach to the implementation of social sector tasks within the mechanism of functioning of the Unified Information System of the Social Sphere of Ukraine (hereinafter - UISSS) are argued and systematised. Using the method of analysis, synthesis and tabular method, the author examines the official statistical data on the functioning of the "Edupomoha" application and, on this basis, assesses the results of the UISSS. The application of the synthesis method made it possible to identify the main existing and future risks of the digitalisation of the social sphere in Ukraine. The abstract and logical method for summarising the research results provided a set of proposals and ways to minimise the negative consequences of such risks. The graphical method allowed to visually present the essence and interrelationships of the elements of the model of the social sphere digitalisation ecosystem, and also identified the priority basis for its effective functioning. The submitted proposals can be selected as the basis for the development and implementation of effective management decisions and measures in the selected areas, procedures and tools to improve the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the implementation of the principles of the social sphere.

The circular economy skills: regional dimension

Relevance. In the pursuit of sustainable development, the circular economy takes precedence as a fundamental imperative for industrial transformation. The current trend in the development of the circular economy concept is to place the main focus on the technological support of circularization and the corresponding innovations in business models, while the decisive role people play in this model of economy is often overlooked. Individuals with specialized knowledge, skills, and values are essential for developing and implementing circular models, making effective management decisions, and promoting rational consumption patterns. The demand for circular skills and the availability of relevant competencies can significantly differ across regions, necessitating further in-depth study. Research objective. The paper is aimed at developing a new methodological approach to the study of circular economy skills at the regional level. This approach considers these skills in terms of both employer demand and their incorporation into master's degree programs, accounting for regional specifics. Data and methods. The study employed a comprehensive approach, integrating theoretical methods with empirical analysis. Scientometric and content analysis identified taxonomies of circular economy skills, and employers' personnel needs were examined through the analysis of the HeadHunter job site using Python software. Additionally, the study encompassed an analysis of educational programs from official websites of universities in southern Russian regions. Results. A new approach to the study of supply and demand of circular economy skills at the regional level has been proposed and tested. As a result, it was determined that there is a demand for sustainable development specialists in various industries in the Russian labor market, which varies across different regions of the country. The relevant skills are included in the master’s degree programs offered by universities. There is a need for greater involvement of regional authorities in shaping educational demands presented to universities, as this is essential for generating demand in the job market for the corresponding competencies. Conclusions. To better achieve targets in sustainable development and facilitate the transition to a circular economy, it is essential to promote a balanced development of all the relevant skills and behavioral patterns. To ensure this, it is important to involve regional authorities in shaping the demand for these skills.

RMB RESILIENCE STRATEGIES TO DRIVE BUSINESS PERFORMANCE AMID THE GLOBAL CRISIS

The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the strategic decisions of Chinese companies in the context of their export activity in the foreign market. The research methodology is based on integrated annual customs data for the period 2014–2021 and econometric analysis. The upward fluctuations in the level of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB encourage companies to withdraw from foreign markets and lead to a significant slowdown in companies’ export market entry. At the same time, companies with foreign capital are able to cope with currency risks to a much greater extent than companies with state and private participation. The analysis of company characteristics based on the principle of differentiation shows that company performance, profit volume, business scale, and export experience of a company can lead to a delay in the favorable effect of RMB appreciation for companies leaving export markets. This article provides valuable guidance for companies on strategies to avoid currency risks and make effective management decisions in the context of exports.

Experimental substantiation of the risks of developing health disorders when exposed to smoke from wildfires

Introduction. An increase in the number of wildfires, along with the lack of a chemical control system for the quality of the atmosphere during smoke, leads to a risk of developing health disorders for rescuers and firefighters exposed to high concentrations of toxic smoke components.
 The study aims to identify causal relationships based on experimental modeling between exposure to natural fire smoke and the functional state of the nervous and reproductive systems.
 Materials and methods. The authors conducted studies on white rats of both sexes. The animals were placed in inhalation chambers and exposed to forest fire smoke of varying concentrations and duration of exposure. The scientists examined the functional state of the nervous system (open field method, Morris test, electroencephalography, histology of nervous tissue), the reproductive system (number of Leydig cells, average number of spermatogonia, spermatogenesis index), the presence of genotoxicity (DNA comet method), DNA methylation and the effect on offspring (postnatal development, species-specific behavior). We calculated the total exposure limit in each group of animals in accordance with the indicators of CO and PM2.5 content in the chambers.
 Results. The researchers found that with a total exposure load of 0.03–0.22 mg, there were initial changes in the morphofunctional state of the central nervous system. With an increase in the load to 4 mg, violations of the indicators of behavior and electrical activity of the brain were accompanied by significant changes in the structure of the nervous tissue of the rat brain. The reproductive function of rats under the influence of smoke changed, starting with a total exposure dose of 10.8 mg. We observed a decrease in spermatogenesis and a change in the cyclic function of the ovaries. A violation of the postnatal development of offspring has already been detected with a total dose of 0.22 to 4 mg. Prolonged exposure to tobacco smoke for one month was accompanied by a pronounced violation of the spermatogenetic function of the testicles and an increase in neonatal mortality in offspring, as well as a violation of the structure of behavior and spatial memory in adulthood. The genotoxic effect of smoke was not detected, and a change in DNA methylation in blood cells was detected at the maximum total dose of smoke components.
 Limitation. The study is limited to studying the effect of wildfire smoke on the nervous and reproductive systems of mongrel white male rats.
 Conclusion. The results obtained are a fundamental foundation for solving such tasks as the development of risk-oriented preventive health-saving measures for workers in extreme situations in conditions of smoke during wildfires and making effective management decisions.
 Ethics. The study was approved by the local Ethics Committee of the East-Siberian Institute of Medical and Ecological Research (Protocol LK of East-Siberian Institute of Medical and Ecological Research No. 32/19 dated 09/10/2019), conducted in accordance with the European Convention for the Protection of Vertebrates Used for Experiments or Other Scientific Purposes (ETS No. 123), Directive of the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union 2010/63/EC dated 09/22/2010 on the protection of animals used for scientific purposes.

Maximum energy entropy: A novel signal preprocessing approach for data-driven monthly streamflow forecasting

In recent years, the application of Data-Driven Models (DDMs) in ecological studies has garnered significant attention due to their capacity to accurately simulate complex hydrological processes. These models have proven invaluable in comprehending and predicting natural phenomena. However, to achieve improved outcomes, certain additive components such as signal analysis models (SAM) and input variable selections (IVS) are necessary. SAMs unveil hidden characteristics within time series data, while IVS prevents the utilization of inappropriate input data. In the realm of ecological research, understanding these patterns is pivotal for grasping the ecological implications of streamflow dynamics and guiding effective management decisions. Addressing the need for more precise streamflow forecasting, this study proposes a novel SAM called “Maximum Energy Entropy (MEE)” to forecast monthly streamflow in the Ajichai basin, located in northwestern Iran. A comparative analysis was conducted, pitting MEE against well-known methods such as Discreet Wavelet (DW) and Discreet Wavelet-Entropy (DWE), ultimately demonstrating the superiority of MEE. The results showcased the superior performance of our proposed method, with an NSE value of 0.72, compared to DW (NSE value of 0.68) and DWE (NSE value of 0.68). Furthermore, MEE exhibited greater reliability, boasting a lower Standard Deviation value of 0.13 compared to DW (0.26) and DWE (0.19). The utilization of MEE equips researchers and decision-makers with more accurate predictions, facilitating well-informed ecological management and water resource planning. To further evaluate MEE's accuracy using various DDMs, we integrated MEE with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Programming (GP). Additionally, GP served as an IVS method for selecting appropriate input variables. Ultimately, the combination of MEE and GP within the ANN forecasting model (MEE-GP-ANN) yielded the most favorable results.

Information and analytical system for managing the processes of evacuation and restoration of enterprises' activities

Problem statement. The process of evacuation of an industrial enterprise and restoration of work in safe areas are complex processes that require operational management decisions on the one hand and assessment of the effectiveness of this process in order to determine the financial condition and continuity of the enterprise in the strategic dimension on the other hand. An important component of this is the formation of a high-quality information product to ensure decision-making by stakeholders. This can be implemented by creating an internal reporting system. "Internal management reporting is a flexible system of information forms; compiled by responsibility centers and in general for the enterprise, submitted to management personnel of various levels; reflects the conditions, organizational and technological features of the enterprise's activities and the needs of management personnel; is a source of information for monitoring, analysis, budgeting and making effective management decisions" [31]. This determines the need to expand the system of internal reporting of an industrial enterprise in the context of reflecting the consequences of military operations and occupation of state territories and the processes of evacuation and launch of the enterprise in safe territories. Accordingly, research on the development of internal reporting on the processes of evacuation of industrial enterprises is updated.

MODELS OF COST BEHAVIOUR: A MANAGERIAL PERSPECTIVE

The paper considers the peculiarities of cost behaviour in the production of metallurgical products and their modelling. The industry specifics and their impact on cost formation and production of metallurgical products are assessed. The article develops step-by-step approaches to cost behaviour analysis. It is proved that one of the key aspects of the study of cost behaviour is the choice of an effective method of their accounting and calculation The main factors of external and internal direction of cost behaviour are formed. Peculiarities of application of the preliminary method of production are evaluated. The scheme of formation of accounting and analytical reflection of production of metallurgical products by the preliminary method at PJSC "Kamet-Stal" is developed. The accounting and analytical reflection of formation of the production cost of metallurgical products on the accounts is presented. The emphasis is placed on the peculiarities of accounting for the formation of the production cost of metallurgical products according to national accounting standards (regulations). A set of interrelated factors that shape and influence the behaviour of costs has been formed. It has been concluded that the most objective method for assessing cost behaviour is statistical correlation models. A regression equation as a linear model of cost behaviour has been formed. A linear model of cost behaviour has been calculated. The equation parameters, actual and tabulated coefficient of determination are determined. The relationship between the volume of pig iron production and changes in total fixed costs is substantiated. The closeness and significance of the relationship are estimated. Analytical conclusions are formed and the main directions of the cost management strategy are developed. It is proposed to forecast costs using the tested model. It has been concluded that the developed model of cost behaviour of metallurgical products (liquid cast iron) can be useful in the practical activities of an enterprise for making effective management decisions in both the short and long term.

Potato yield forecasting based on a fuzzy-possibility model

Potato production is a complex dynamic system that requires ensuring the stability of its functioning in changing, uncertain economic conditions and a scientifically based approach to making effective management decisions. The purpose of the research was to assess and predict potato productivity depending on the level of mineral nutrition and the length of the growing season using expert knowledge and a fuzzy-possibility approach in the conditions of the Republic of Karelia. The experiments were carried out in 2019-2021 on three potato varieties of different early maturity: Udacha, Red Scarlet and Aurora on soddy-weakly podzolic sandy loamy well-cultivated soil. The microfield experiment included two options for applying mineral fertilizers: N80P60K120 и N120P90K180, the variant without fertilizers served as a control. Studies have shown that the application of mineral fertilizers significantly increases the yield of tubers by 10-58%. The yield of potatoes without the use of fertilizers averaged 28.4 t/ha in the experiments. The highest potato yield was obtained on the early variety Udacha (38.4 t/ha) against the background of the use of mineral fertilizers at a dose of N80P60K120. An adequate fuzzy-possibility model (FPM) based on explicit and implicit expert knowledge has been synthesized to predict potato yield. It is shown that the most significant factors in assessing the yield of potatoes of all tested varieties are the level of mineral nutrition (X2) and soil fertility (X5). The synthesized FPM can be used for the planned potato yield under certain external and similar technical and technological conditions.

Развитие аквакультуры северных и арктических территорий: проблемы и пути решения (на примере Архангельской области)

The relevance of this study is due to the need to develop and implement in regional practice effective management decisions that promote the development of fish farms and increase aquaculture pro-duction. Since fish farming (aquaculture) is one of the structural components of the fishery complex, the authors pay attention to both the peculiarities of its development in the conditions of the North and the Arctic, and the specifics of economic activity in the field of aquaculture projects. The article presents the results of a survey of the population of the Arctic territories of the Arkhangelsk Oblast on the consumption of fish and fish products, which allowed establishing various consumer profiles of preferences depending on their age category, as well as to identify the main reasons constraining the consumption of fish and fish products (among which: high price, availability of low-quality products in retail outlets, the lack of ability and desire to cook among the younger generation). Based on the results of expert interviews with producers of fish and fish products, as well as with representatives of the scientific community and authorities of the Arkhangelsk Oblast, a problem matrix was compiled and the necessary activities were identified to address key issues of the development of aquaculture projects in the region.