Climate Change Planning Research Articles

Mapping soil organic carbon distribution across South Africa's major biomes using remote sensing-topo-climatic covariates and Concrete Autoencoder-Deep neural networks

The management of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks remains at the forefront of greenhouse gas mitigation. However, unprecedented anthropogenic disturbances emanating from continued land-use change have significantly altered SOC distribution across global biomes leading to considerable carbon losses. Consequently, understanding the spatial distribution of SOC across different biomes, particularly at larger scales, is critical for climate change policy formulation and planning. Advancements in remote sensing, availability of big data, and deep learning architecture offer great potential in large-scale SOC mapping. In this regard, this study mapped SOC distribution across South Africa's major biomes using remotely sensed-topo-climatic data and Concrete Autoencoder-Deep neural networks (CAE-DNN). From the different deep neural frameworks tested, the CAE-DNN model (developed from 26 selected covariates) achieved the best accuracy with an RMSE value of 7.91 t/ha (about 20 % of the mean). Results further showed that SOC stock correlated with general biome coverage, as the Grassland and Savanna biomes contributed the most (32.38 % and 31.28 %) to the overall SOC pool in South Africa. However, despite their smaller footprint, Forests (44.12 t/h) and the Indian Ocean Coastal Belt (43.05 t/h) biomes demonstrated the highest SOC sequestration capacity. The restoration of degraded biomes is advocated for, in order to boost SOC storage; but a balance between carbon sequestration capacity, biodiversity health, and the adequate provision of ecosystem services must be maintained. To this end, these findings provide a guideline to facilitate sustainable SOC stock management within South Africa's major biomes and indeed other regions of the world.

Ecosystem Services in Canadian City Planning

Sustainability plans offer insights into cities’ efforts to integrate sustainability but little on Ecosystem Services (ES) in sustainability and climate change planning. Integrating the Ecosystem Services Approach (ESA) in planning can help decision-makers understand the trade-offs between development scenarios and the human-nature relationship. This study surveyed Canada’s largest cities where threats to ES due to urbanization is the greatest. The survey explored the ES concept, frameworks, methods, applications in climate change planning and ES governance. It found that most cities recognize ES but had limited knowledge of ES frameworks and had challenges in ES valuation and mapping. The ESA was most promising in climate change planning to support climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. The governance of ES appears to be partly responsible for its low and inconsistent uptake in planning. This study therefore recommends five policy and planning opportunities to help build climate resilient and sustainable cities.

Primary Energy Factors for Electricity Production in Europe

The European Union (EU) has committed to supporting the United Nations’ efforts in line with the Paris Agreement for addressing climate change and has set ambitious targets to reduce primary energy consumption and emissions. Similar commitments have also been set by EU-27 member states. For this purpose, it is necessary to use a primary energy factor (PEF) for converting electricity use to primary energy units and for assessing energy conservation measures. Lower PEFs reflect efficiency improvements in power generation, an increased share of renewable energy sources in the fuel mix for electricity generation, and lower transmission and distribution losses. Over the past decades, there have been intensive efforts and notable progress in the EU-27 for increasing the use of renewables in the energy mix for electricity generation. However, the EU default PEF value for electricity was not regularly updated and remained at 2.5 for several years till it was finally recalculated at 2.1 in the 2018 recast of the Energy Efficiency Directive. This paper reviews different calculation options for estimating the PEF for electricity from official annual statistics, presents the historical evolution of the calculated conversion factors, and provides simple linear correlations for projecting the PEF values that can be used to facilitate more-realistic forward-looking calculations and assess national energy efficiency, climate change, or decarbonization plans in EU-27 member states. A more detailed analysis and case studies on the impacts of this work are illustrated for Greece and Poland.

Evaluating rural municipal climate change plans in ontario, Canada

Climate change poses serious risks to rural communities which rely heavily on climate-sensitive resources. Rural communities are also significant contributors to GHG emissions given the prevalence of agriculture and related activities and are therefore expected to develop courses of action that tackle climate change. This includes either formulating a standalone plan that outlines mitigation and adaptation strategies or integrating these priorities into existing plans. The extent to which municipalities fulfill these planning functions, and how well, has been found to vary considerably from one community to another. In this study, we sought to contribute to knowledge about how well rural municipalities are planning for climate change risks. To this end, we systematically evaluated the contents and quality of rural climate change plans in Ontario (Canada). Using a well-established plan quality evaluation framework, we found that rural plans generally contained strong mechanisms for coordination between departments, and most had outlined specific goals concerning climate change action. By contrast, few plans provided a meaningful fact base to support their goals, many lacked specific policies to guide decision-makers in achieving climate goals, and most contained weak provisions for monitoring and evaluation. After drawing out some key themes from the plan quality analysis, the article concludes by pointing to areas of rural climate change planning that require further attention, and by outlining some areas for further study.

Understanding the coast as a peopled place: A literature survey of place attachment in climate change adaptation

As the field of adaptation science grows, there are new and emerging paradigms to approach climate change planning. This paper includes a literature survey of articles and manuscripts that evaluate coastal climate change adaptation in the place attachment paradigm. The survey included a database review for an 11-year period with associated search terms and, after initial sifting of the results for duplications or nonrelated works, I reviewed the relationship between place attachment and adaptation, empirical methods for studying place attachment, major framing of their relationship, and how these concepts relate to equitable and “just adaptation.” Most studies used multiple and mixed methods with frequent use of semi-structured interviews and a psychometric scale. Primary frames for place attachment in adaptation were social capital, cultural heritage, managed retreat and migration, and ecosystem services. Place attachment can be a motivator for environmental action but a barrier to change, especially managed retreat. It can reveal critical elements and socio-cultural practices dependent on the landscape that are priorities to the residents and visitors. Finally, place attachment provides an opportunity, for more equitable and just adaptation, if done intentionally. After discussion of the results, I present research, policy, and practice considerations to further the intersection and application of place attachment in adaptation.

UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLUTION AND GLOBAL TRENDS OF RESILIENCE AND URBAN PLANNING STUDIES: A BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS

This paper represents a bibliometric analysis of the Scopus database publications on resilience and urban planning. The study recalled 1,923 documents from 1997 to 2021 using keywords related to the research topic and analyzed this using Microsoft Excel 2019, VOSviewer and Harzing's Publish or Perish software. The findings show that the expansion rate of works in resilience and urban planning has steadily increased every year since 1997. This study's most frequently used terms are the main keywords, which are climate change, sustainability, urban resilience and spatial planning. Landscape and Urban Planning is recommended as the main target journal for publication of the results of this research analysis. Research on COVID-19 or pandemic resilience, public space and urban mobility may eventually supersede prior dominant themes. The findings suggest that researchers from less contributed countries should explore this topic more to provide nuance to this field.

Land Change Simulation and Forest Carbon Storage of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios

Land use change is closely related to the terrestrial ecosystem. Studying the relationship between land use and ecosystem service carbon storage under future climate change can optimize the regional ecosystem service function and formulate sustainable social and economic development policies, which is of great significance for regional carbon emission management and climate change response. In this paper, the coupled model of SSP-RCP-PLUS-InVEST was constructed to simulate land use change under different scenarios, analyze the influence degree of driving factors on different regions, and explore the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial correlation of carbon storage, taking Central Yunnan City agglomeration as an example. The results showed that: (1) from the perspective of land use change, the overall changes in SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios were similar, and the change rates of different types were slightly different. Under the SSP585 scenario, the forest area decreased, and the urban land and cropland land expanded. (2) Under the three scenarios in the future, the decrease in total carbon storage is the most serious under the SSP245 scenario, and the decrease is the most serious under the SSP585 scenario. (3) Comparative spatial correlation: the carbon storage in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration is generally correlated among counties, and there is no significant difference under the future scenarios, showing a high accumulation pattern in the east and low accumulation pattern in the middle. In general, reasonable planning of land spatial patterns and increasing the proportion of forest is conducive to the proportion of regional carbon sequestration capacity. The research methods can provide references for addressing climate change and territorial spatial planning.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in the Timing of Budburst for Australian Wine Regions

Background and Aims. This research investigates spatial and temporal trends in budburst timing across Australian wine regions from 1910–2019. The potential drivers of these observed trends were then identified, including anthropogenic climate change and large-scale climate drivers (El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM)). Methods and Results. The timing of budburst was approximated using accumulation measurements applied to Australia wide gridded temperature data. We show that the modelled budburst date has been gradually shifting to earlier in the year for most (95%) Australian wine regions, at an average rate of one day every 24 years. This linear trend in budburst timing is likely to be associated with steadily increasing air temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. Significant interannual variability was also observed and was correlated with IOD and SAM; however, no significant relationship was found with ENSO. Positive IOD phases result in budburst occurring on average four days earlier than the long-term average; however, this can be as high as eight days. Conclusions. The results of this study highlight that budburst timing for wine grapes is not a stationary phenomenon and is influenced by both natural and anthropogenic conditions. Significance of the Study. Understanding variability and trends in modelled budburst timing will assist tactical and strategic management practices and improve phenological modelling and adaptation planning for climate change.

Equitable Urban Planning for Climate Change

Growing evidence shows cities’ climate change efforts can worsen inequities and social injustices. This paper starts to formulate a normative conception of social justice for urban climate change planning. It identifies what dimensions of social justice are articulated and how they are defined in the literature on equity in urban planning for climate change. It shows at least five dimensions are pertinent: creating transformations, promoting the well-being of the socially marginalized, recognition, inclusion in decision-making, and distributive justice. The paper concludes by discussing where further developments are needed to generate a comprehensive account of equitable urban planning for climate change.

Canadian cities: climate change action and plans

The individual and collective decarbonization pathways of 26 Canadian cities are assessed by evaluating data gathered from the implementation of a unique energy model, CityinSight. Although many cities in Canada have declared a climate emergency and plans are at various stages of implementation, development path change is mostly incremental. They are at the very beginning of transforming development paths that necessitate climate action planning which embraces a systems perspective and whole-city planning. The present data reveal that there are very different starting points for Canadian cities, and considerable asymmetries between municipalities, as well as the collective impact of their plans on national targets. The latency of municipalities for on-the-ground implementation of their plans means that ongoing assessments will be required to determine the impact of efforts by cities to achieve their targets. <em><strong><br /></strong></em> <em><strong>Policy relevance</strong></em> Cities are on the front line of implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation. Many climate researchers and practitioners have called for fundamental change and new governance arrangements to achieve even a 2°C limit to rising global temperatures. At the same time, researchers argue that Canadian cities do not have the ability to raise revenue other than through continuous development: an incentive therefore exists to keep ‘growing’ regardless of other sustainable imperatives. Transformational change is required through policy instruments and more appropriate incentives harmonized across macro-, meso-, and microlevels to create carbon-neutral development paths in the next decade. Policy harmonization, coherence, and alignment are necessary and sufficient conditions for meeting the international commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This also requires action at multiple scales with multilevel partnerships and unprecedented degrees of government collaboration and leadership.

Hydrology research articles are becoming more topically diverse

We used Natural Language Processing (NLP) to assess topic diversity in all research articles (∼75,000) from eighteen water science and hydrology journals published between 1991 and 2019. We found that individual water science and hydrology research articles are becoming increasingly diverse in the sense that, on average, the number of topics represented in individual articles is increasing, which may be a sign of increasing interdisciplinarity. This is true even though the body of water science and hydrology literature as a whole is not becoming more topically diverse. Topics with the largest increases in popularity were Climate Change Impacts, Water Policy & Planning, and Pollutant Removal. Topics with the largest decreases in popularity were Stochastic Models and Numerical Models. At a journal level, Water Resources Research, Journal of Hydrology, and Hydrological Processes are the three most topically diverse journals among the corpus that we studied.

Urban Planning for Climate Change: A Toolkit of Actions for an Integrated Strategy of Adaptation to Heavy Rains, River Floods, and Sea Level Rise

Cities and urban systems are the places most responsible for climate change, but at the same time they are the places where its effects are felt the most. A state-of-the-art analysis showed that Ecological–Environmental, Settlement, and Infrastructure and Service Systems are the components of cities most exposed to risk phenomena. Therefore, it is important to identify site-specific actions aimed at enhancing ecosystem services and building hierarchical ecological networks (green and blue infrastructures), according to an Ecosystem-based Approach (EbA). In this regard, the contribution presents the results of a research work on the theme of multi-risks connected to climate change, referring to heavy rains and river flood phenomena and sea level rise and proposes a systematisation of international best practices in the field of the Ecosystem-based Approach (EbA). Each best practice analysed is traced back to the three urban resilience macro-strategies of “defence”, “adaptation”, and “relocation/de-anthropisation”, already conceptualised by the authors during their joint research activity. The aim is to outline a synthetic toolkit of site-specific design actions, exportable to other contexts, intended as a tool to support the innovation of urban planning tools at the local level.

How resilient are localities planning for climate change? An evaluation of 50 plans in the United States.

Resilience has increasingly become the principal management priority and planning goal for cities, especially for climate change adaptation. Yet few studies have evaluated whether and how well resilience are integrated into climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we first conceptualized resilience as five key elements (i.e., system, collaboration, uncertainty, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity) and developed a coding protocol based on these key elements. We then used it to evaluate a sample of 50 climate change plans in the United States (US) that has a major adaptation component. We found that the concept of resilience has not been adequately embedded in US climate change plans and that the predominant notions of resilience has limited influence on how well plans integrate resilience. We also found that standalone adaptation plans outperform hybrid plans in addressing uncertainty and fostering systems thinking. Ultimately, major barriers exist in translating the concept of resilience into climate change planning practice. We further offer implications for cities to more effectively plan for climate resilience.

Urban qualities for dense mixed-use spaces. Theses, case studies and a toolbox for integrated tangible urban planning.

The built environment is under pressure. Climate change, migration and social inequalities challenge previous urban planning concepts and will change our cities. The task is to transform the sustainable city of the future into a climate-friendly and socially just living space. Solving these challenges requires an integrated quality discourse with all actors based on tangible structural-spatial situations. In the BBSR research project “Qualities of Urban Zones”, contributions for an early in-depth quality discourse were developed based on the new building zone category “urban zones”. Urban zones are regarded as a future-oriented concept for sustainable densified districts and a diverse, ever-changing mix of uses. This paper presents the specific context and main findings as “theses of urban quality” as well as potential applications for MU. The authors propose guidelines to improve process quality and illustrate exemplary tangible structural-spatial as well as process-related “design elements”. A toolbox with instructions and templates to design and implement scenario-based workshops supports an integrated quality discourse in urban development.

Embedding the value of coastal ecosystem services into climate change adaptation planning.

Coastal habitats, such as salt marshes and dune systems, can protect communities from hazards by reducing coastline exposure. However, these critical habitats and their diverse ecosystem services are threatened by coastal development and the impacts from a changing climate. Ever increasing pressure on coastal habitats calls for coastal climate adaptation efforts that mitigate or adapt to these pressures in ways that maintain the integrity of coastal landscapes. An important challenge for decisionmakers is determining the best mitigation and adaptation strategies that not only protect human lives and property, but also safeguard the ability of coastal habitats to provide a broad suite of benefits. Here, we present a potential pathway for local-scale climate change adaptation planning through the identification and mapping of natural habitats that provide the greatest benefits to coastal communities. The methodology coupled a coastal vulnerability model with a climate adaptation policy assessment in an effort to identify priority locations for nature-based solutions that reduce vulnerability of critical assets using feasible land-use policy methods. Our results demonstrate the critical role of natural habitats in providing the ecosystem service of coastal protection in California. We found that specific dune habitats play a key role in reducing erosion and inundation of the coastline and that several wetland areas help to absorb energy from storms and provide a protective service for the coast of Marin county, California, USA. Climate change and adaptation planning are globally relevant issues in which the scalability and transferability of solutions must be considered. This work outlines an iterative approach for climate adaptation planning at a local-scale, with opportunity to consider the scalability of an iterative science-policy engagement approach to regional, national, and international levels.

The Helsinki Twin [Finland - digital twin

Helsinki, a world leader in using digital models as tools to achieve its ambitious and rapid decarbonisation goal by 2030, is looking to harness the potential of geothermal energy with the help of local homeowners. Two-thirds of the world&apos;s people are expected to be living in cities by 2050, so urban planning for climate change is vital, both to mitigate extreme climate events and to realise a low-carbon future. At the forefront worldwide of deploying and using a digital twin model of their city is a small team in the Finnish capital Helsinki, led by architect and city planner Jarmo Suomisto. The Helsinki digital twin is in fact two models, a Reality model, and a Semantic City GML - short for Geography Markup Language, an international standard in mapping software. Simply put, the reality model is the pretty pictures - made up of two billion polygons, and the semantic model is the underlying brains, with data layers that can be labelled, interrogated, added to, and changed. At the beginning the models were used to evaluate proposals in architectural competitions. The 1985 3D model took 12 hours to render a simple black and white street view image.

Strengthening Health Systems for Climate Adaptation and Health Security: Key Considerations for Policy and Programming.

Strengthening Health Systems for Climate Adaptation and Health Security: Key Considerations for Policy and Programming.

The dilemma of flood occurrence in Accra: climate change or poor land use planning and practices?

The dilemma of flood occurrence in Accra: climate change or poor land use planning and practices?

Does economic development reduce disaster damage risk from floods in India? Empirical evidence using the ZINB model

Every year, extreme climatic events cause significant losses in South Asian countries, including India. The damages due to floods have gone up, affecting the overall development of the Indian economy. The current study uses zero-inflated negative binomial and negative binomial regression approaches to evaluate whether economic growth lowers damage risk due to repeating flood occurrences for major flood-affected Indian states from 1981 to 2019. This study produces three significant findings. First, loss and damage indicators are on the rise across the country. Second, high-income states are more flood-resistant than poor states. Third, the real economic growth rate and the disaster risk follow a ‘U' shape pattern. This study concludes that real per capita gross state domestic product and urbanization rate reduce the loss and damages due to disasters, while a rise in population density, more flooded areas, and heavy rainfall enhance the damage risk. Further, our study supports the economic growth theory of J. S. Mill that there is a negative association between disasters and economic growth. From a policy perspective, this study suggests increasing expenditures under the Disaster Risk Reduction program to lower damage risk. This study also urges the integration of the developmental planning and state action plan for climate change to encounter such climatic events thoroughly.

Climate change planning in a coastal tourism destination, A participatory approach

Participatory planning is one strategy to increase tourism suppliers’ capacity to jointly anticipate climate change impacts and implement locally feasible and acceptable solutions; however, participatory planning is uncommon. In this study, we co-created a series of planning workshops with tourism partners to examine and address climate change impacts (challenges and opportunities) on Mount Desert Island, Maine, USA. We co-designed and facilitated two Zoom workshops in spring 2021 for tourism suppliers. Workshops focused on (1) identifying climate change impacts to the tourism system and (2) developing planning priorities for the destination. Workshops resulted in two planning priorities: visitation shifts and the opportunity to become a more sustainable destination in response to climate change. Our participatory approach brought together diverse tourism suppliers that do not usually collaborate to increase the destination’s capacity to plan for and respond to climate change. Similar participatory approaches may benefit other natural resource dependent contexts.