Land Change Simulation and Forest Carbon Storage of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios

Abstract

Land use change is closely related to the terrestrial ecosystem. Studying the relationship between land use and ecosystem service carbon storage under future climate change can optimize the regional ecosystem service function and formulate sustainable social and economic development policies, which is of great significance for regional carbon emission management and climate change response. In this paper, the coupled model of SSP-RCP-PLUS-InVEST was constructed to simulate land use change under different scenarios, analyze the influence degree of driving factors on different regions, and explore the spatio-temporal evolution and spatial correlation of carbon storage, taking Central Yunnan City agglomeration as an example. The results showed that: (1) from the perspective of land use change, the overall changes in SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios were similar, and the change rates of different types were slightly different. Under the SSP585 scenario, the forest area decreased, and the urban land and cropland land expanded. (2) Under the three scenarios in the future, the decrease in total carbon storage is the most serious under the SSP245 scenario, and the decrease is the most serious under the SSP585 scenario. (3) Comparative spatial correlation: the carbon storage in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration is generally correlated among counties, and there is no significant difference under the future scenarios, showing a high accumulation pattern in the east and low accumulation pattern in the middle. In general, reasonable planning of land spatial patterns and increasing the proportion of forest is conducive to the proportion of regional carbon sequestration capacity. The research methods can provide references for addressing climate change and territorial spatial planning.