Carbon Storage In Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Articles

Aboveground Spatiotemporal Carbon Storage Model in the Changing Landscape of Jatigede, West Java, Indonesia

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is the variable with the maximum influence on carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, due to a fundamental alteration of the ecosystem, structure, function, and variability over time. Understanding the dynamics of aboveground carbon stocks in underway constructions and urban expansions is crucial to provide a basis for land use management and planning. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of aboveground carbon storage and assess how the LULC change is affected by human intervention, as well as how aboveground carbon stocks respond to these changes in the tropical highland landscape of Jatigede. In this study, changes in aboveground carbon stocks were investigated between 2014 and 2021 by using the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The results revealed that the total aboveground carbon stock decreased between 2014 and 2021. Forests showed the greatest decline in the aboveground carbon stock in terms of space. The primary cause of the reduction in the aboveground carbon stock was the conversion of vegetated land to agricultural and urban land cover. The aboveground carbon stock change was also caused by the continuing construction, which resulted in the extension of construction zones. However, an increase in the aboveground carbon stock was mostly observed in mixed gardens that were close to forest areas. The preservation of mixed gardens as a tree-based agroforestry system can be suggested for enhancing the aboveground carbon stock, as mixed gardens play a significant role in carbon storage in the midst of the increasingly massive deforestation due to the expansion of urban areas.

A coupling model based on spatial characteristics and evolution of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage: a case study of Hanzhong.

Ecosystem carbon storage (ECS) is a critical consideration in reducing the impact of global warming and tackling environmental challenges, positioning it at the forefront of contemporary research. Due to the significant differences in the influence of land usage patterns on ECS in various policy contexts and China's commitment to attaining a carbon-neutral status, a model simulating different scenarios is needed to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and evolutionary process of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems accurately. To address this challenge, this study established a coupling model of "Geographical analysis -Evolution analysis -Predicting (GEP)" for assessing ecosystem ECS and analyzing its spatial characteristics and evolutionary patterns and projecting the spatial distribution of ECS under various developmental scenarios, which analyzed variations in ECS across different levels of magnitude and delineated the changing areas across a range of varying scenarios in the future additionally. The outcomes suggested that the ECS decreased by 1.17 × 106 t from 1990 to 2020, which pertaining to the utilization transfer of land in the area, whose change in ECS levels with a positive trend. It is predicted that the ECS will grow by 1.15 × 106 t and 1.44 × 106 t, in 2030 and 2060 compared with 2020 within the framework of natural development scenario (NDS), while within the framework of ecological protection scene (EPS), ECS will increase significantly, increasing by 3.06 × 106 t and 4.44 × 106 t. There will be more areas where ECS increases within the framework of EPS, by comparing with the NDS. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of Hanzhong City's carbon storage trends, demonstrating its significant impact on climate change mitigation and serving as a predictive model for similar regions, which underscores the importance of localized carbon management strategies, offering valuable insights for local governments in formulating effective climate adaptation and mitigation policies.

The Impact of Territorial Spatial Transformation on Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Suqian, East China

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change, and the transformation of territorial space has a significant impact on the carbon cycle of a country’s terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, evaluating the impact of space transformation on carbon storage is essential for enhancing regional carbon storage potential and reducing carbon emissions. We use the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to analyze the dynamic changes in territorial spatial transformation and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 in Suqian, as well as their relationship. On this basis, the optimization strategy and specific path for improving territorial space carbon storage capacity were determined. The results show the following: that (1) from 2000 to 2020, territorial spatial transformation in Suqian was dramatic, with the most significant changes occurring between 2005 and 2010. The scale of mutual transformation between agricultural production space and urban–rural construction space was the largest. (2) Carbon storage gradually decreased in Suqian City, with a total reduction of 1.23 × 106 tons over 20 years and an annual decrease of 1.46%. The carbon density of forested space was significantly higher than that of other spaces. The conversion of agricultural production space and forestland space to urban–rural construction space was the main factor driving a decrease in carbon storage. (3) Territorial spatial transformation is a spatial manifestation of the evolution of human–land relationships. Regulating the function, scale, structure and layout of territorial space as a whole and implementing differentiated management of specific space will be beneficial to optimize carbon storage in Suqian.

Simulation and attribution analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Hainan Island from 2015 to 2050

Terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) could significantly affect the concentration of atmospheric CO2, which is critical for climate change prediction. Along these lines, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was employed to determine the TECS of Hainan Island (HN) from 2015 to 2050 accurately. Besides, the Future Land-use Simulation model combined with natural and anthropogenic factors was used to forecast the land-use types from 2025 to 2050 in HN by considering different Shared-socioeconomic pathway-Rrepresentative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Finally, the geographical detector explored the influence mechanism concerning the TECS. Under the SSP1-RCP1.9 scenario, the TECS of HN will be gradually increased to 388.10 million tons in 2050, mainly due to the increase in forest areas and the fact that the majority of grassland in the western part of HN is being converted into forest. Under different SSP-RCP scenarios except for SSP1-RCP1.9, HN's TECS is expected to gradually decrease from 2015 to 2050, mainly due to the loss of grassland and forest in coastal low-altitude areas. From the single/pair factor perspective influenced mechanism concerning the TECS, the elevation (DEM) and DEM∩Slope were found to be the dominant single/pair factor under the SSP1-RCP1.9, SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP2-RCP4.5 scenarios. The least distance to residential area (LDP) and LDP∩LDR (i.e. LDP and least distance to roads or railways) were found to be the dominant factors under the SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP4-RCP3.4, SSP4-RCP6.0, SSP5-RCP3.4 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. Besides, the pair factors provided a higher determinant power for TECS than a single factor. Given the results of the TECS and the influence mechanism concerning the TECS under different SSP-RCP scenarios, we suggest reasonably planning the transportation network and limiting the disorderly expansion of construction land.

Microplastics alter soil carbon cycling: Effects on carbon storage, CO2 and CH4 emission and microbial community

Abstract Microplastics (MPs) are carbon-rich polymers that are ubiquitous in the environment. With the increase of plastic production, microplastic pollution may be exacerbated and result in significant changes in microbial communities and biogeochemical processes such as carbon cycling, eventually impacting greenhouse gas emission and carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. However, current research on the effect of MPs on soil carbon cycling is still limited, and there is a lack of systematic review of the scattered information obtained from previous studies. Accordingly, this review provides a systematic overview of the current knowledge on the effects of MPs on soil carbon cycling and gives future research suggestions. Emerging evidence indicates that MPs could affect soil carbon stability and CO2 and CH4 emission by modifying soil physicochemical and microbiological properties; though biodegradable MPs often exhibit a greater effect than nonbiodegradable ones, the specific effects are highly dependent on plastic type, size and concentration. The specific mechanisms of MPs’ impact on soil carbon cycles remain elusive, which are discussed mainly from the perspective of microbial changes, including microbial biomass, microbial community composition, and key enzymes and functional genes associated with carbon metabolism. Further research is needed to elucidate whether MPs have a positive priming effect on soil carbon decomposition and the biotic and abiotic mechanisms involved. This review paper helps researchers gain a clearer picture of how and through which way MPs impact carbon cycling in soil ecosystems.

Analysis and prediction of the spatiotemporal characteristics of land-use ecological risk and carbon storage in Wuhan metropolitan area

In the context of global warming, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic of carbon storage, land-use related ecological risks, and how ecological risks are correlated with carbon storage, is vitally significant for enhancing regional carbon-sequestration capacity, promoting the rational exploitation of land and green and low-carbon development. Using land-use data, this study employed the InVEST and PLUS models to analyze and forecast spatiotemporal variation in land-use, land-use ecological risks, and terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in the Wuhan metropolitan area under multiple-scenarios. Spearman’s correlation and spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to explore spatial correlations between carbon storage and land-use ecological risk. The following was found: (1) From 2000 to2020, the area of arable land, grassland, water body, and unused land reduced. In contrast, the area of forestland and built-up land increased. Similar land-use changes were observed in 2030 under the natural development scenario. The area of forestland, grassland, and water body increased, and the expansion of built-up land is effectively controlled under the ecological protection scenario. (2) Land-use ecological risks in the study area first declined and then increased over the research period, with an overall increase. (3) From 2000 to 2030, the carbon storage within the Wuhan metropolitan area declined. In the 2030 ecological protection scenario, the reduction in carbon storage is lower than under the natural development scenario. Through the lens of land-use categories, the entire carbon storage was, in descending order, arable land, forestland, built-up land, grassland, unused land, and water body. (4) Land-use ecological risk and carbon storage were negatively correlated and dominated by Low-High and High-Low aggregation zones. This study can serve as a reference for the future optimal layout of land-use and sustainable development of ecosystems in metropolitan areas.

Integrating national integrated assessment model and land-use intensity for estimating China's terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage

Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions.

Prediction and Evolution of Carbon Storage of Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Qinling Mountains North Slope Region, China

The Qinling Mountains north slope region constitutes a vital terrestrial ecosystem reserve within China. This study employs land use and land cover (LULC) data spanning from 1990 to 2020. Utilizing methodologies encompassing land use classification, transfer matrix analysis, and the application of the PLUS and InVEST models, this research endeavors to elucidate the spatial-temporal dynamics of land use patterns and associated carbon storage in the region. These analyses are conducted within the context of four prospective scenarios: Natural Development Priority, Arable Land Protection Priority, Ecological Protection Priority, and Urban Development Priority, all projected onto the landscape for 2030. Notably, our findings reveal a consistent decline in carbon storage across all four scenarios for 2030 compared to the baseline year 2020. This stark reality presents substantial challenges to achieving the region’s targets of carbon peaking and eventual carbon neutrality. Furthermore, this paper meticulously delineates six key drivers contributing to this decline in carbon storage. In conclusion, it proffers nine strategic recommendations aimed at augmenting carbon storage, with an overarching objective of establishing a harmonized mechanism capable of balancing urban development, safeguarding cultivated land, fortifying ecological preservation, and enhancing carbon sequestration within the area.

Evaluating the impact of multi scenario land use change simulation on carbon storage at different scales: a case study of Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is crucial to advance carbon neutrality and support sustainable development. Extensive studies have explored the effect of land use change on carbon storage, especially urban expansion. As one of the world’s top urban agglomerations, the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) is facing a dramatic loss of carbon storage along with urbanization. Coordinating economic development and ecological protection and achieving low-carbon green development are urgently needed to alleviate the decline in urban carbon storage. Here, we quantified land use change in the historical period (2000, 2010, 2020) and in 2030 and then estimated carbon storage dynamics at different scales by combining the PLUS model and the InVEST model. We found that: (1) Construction land significantly increased simultaneously with considerable losses of farmland (2273.29 km2) and forestland (949.98 km2) from 2010–2020. In 2030, construction land will expand by 997.83 km2 (12.51%), 1419.97 km2 (17.79%), and 238.60 km2 (2.99%) under the natural growth (NG), urban expansion (UE), and low carbon development (LCD) scenarios, respectively. (2) Compared to 2020, carbon storage under the LCD will reach 6.51×108 Mg, with the lowest decline rate (0.35%). (3) At the city level, Shenzhen had the highest decline rate under various scenarios, followed by Zhuhai and Guangzhou. At the county scale, carbon storage followed the order NG > UE > LCD in 2000–2030. At the grid scale, carbon storage showed a declining trend from the central PRDUA region to marginal areas. Thus, comprehensive considering the multiscale effects of land use change on carbon storage was beneficial to formulate reasonable measures for specific areas. Differentiated development categories at different scales and low-carbon industrial upgrading should be implemented to maintain ecosystem services and achieve sustainable development.

Coupling coordination analysis of industrial mining land, landscape pattern and carbon storage in a mining city: a case study of Ordos, China

Analyzing and optimizing the spatio-temporal characteristics of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, as well as examining their coupling and coordination relationships with industrial mining land and landscape pattern, can become a reference in the pursuit of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality for mining cities. This research takes the typical mining city of Ordos as the study target. Based on the LULC, the Multi-objective Planning (MOP) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model are used to predict the LULC under the natural development (Q1), ecological protection (Q2) and economic development (Q3) scenarios of 2030, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model is used to analyze the dynamics of carbon storage, finally a coupling coordination of industrial mining land, landscape pattern and carbon storage is constructed to investigate the interrelationship between them. The results show: (1) From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage shows an inverted ‘V’ shape of rising and then falling; (2) Compared to carbon storage in 2020, the Q1 demonstrates a decrease, while the Q2 and Q3 demonstrate increases; (3) From 2000 to 2020, the coupling coordination degree decreases, and in the future, Q2 and Q3 show an increase in it relative to the Q1.

A Bibliometric Analysis of the Research Progress and Trends during 2002–2022 on the Carbon Stocks in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Improving the carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems can effectively reduce atmospheric CO2, which is one of the important ways of mitigating global climate change. The knowledge on terrestrial carbon stock research is relatively mature in the international community; however, the research pulse, hotspots, and trends in terrestrial ecosystems carbon stock research are not clear. To better understand the research focus and developmental directions of terrestrial ecosystems’ carbon storage, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of 6305 research articles between 2002 and 2022, which were gathered from the Web of Science Core Database. The temporal distribution, country/region distribution, co-citation network, keyword evolution and clustering, journals, and authors of the literature were analyzed, and the knowledge domain was mapped using the CiteSpace visualization software. This study established the following three observations: (1) The number of publications on carbon stock research in terrestrial ecosystems continues to expand, and the trend in the number of publications proves that carbon sinks in terrestrial systems remain an important research topic internationally. (2) Important issues concerning terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock research have evolved from monitoring the carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems to the mechanism of carbon stock formation for the realization of monitoring and management under global climate change. Furthermore, the research methodology has evolved from small-scale, fixed-point instrumental observations to large-scale remote sensing and model simulations, with diversifications in research content and methodology. (3) In the future, academic research on carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems will focus more on international and interdisciplinary cooperations, increasing the intensity in surveying and monitoring carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems, and realizing the accurate monitoring, assessment, management, and enhancement of carbon stocks from the integrated carbon stock computation system for “sky, air, and land.” The results of this study comprehensively demonstrate the current status and development of the research on carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide, and provide a reference for future research on the sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems within the context of global warming.

Multi-scenario Land Use Optimization and Carbon Storage Assessment in Northwest China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the main factor leading to the change in carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the process of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in the future will help to formulate scientific land use policies and increase regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. The GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of land use and carbon storage in northwest China from 2000 to 2020 through multi-source data and to predict the land use and carbon storage in northwest China in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and comprehensive development (CD). The results showed that:①from 2000 to 2020, the area of grassland decreased by 1680.99×104 hm2, and the area of cultivated land, forest land, water area, wetland, construction land, and unused land increased by 201.19×104, 208.47×104, 91.54×104, 51.30×104, 157.40×104, and 971.09×104 hm2, respectively. ②From 2000 to 2020, soil and underground carbon storage decreased, dead organic matter and aboveground carbon storage increased, and total carbon storage decreased by 677.97×106 t. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage. ③Compared to that in 2020, the total carbon storage in the ND scenario was reduced by 63.12×106 t, and the total carbon storage in the ED, EP, and CD scenarios increased by 759.19×106, 804.57×106, and 817.89×106 t, respectively; the CD scenario was the optimal development model. These results can provide a reference for regional land use planning and the increase of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Yellow River Basin

The accurate estimation of a regional ecosystem’s carbon storage and the exploration of its spatial distribution and influencing factors are of great significance for ecosystem carbon sink function enhancements and management. Using the Yellow River Basin as the study area, we assessed the changes in regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage through geographically weighted regression modeling based on a large number of measured sample sites, explored the main influencing factors through geographic probe analysis, and predicted the carbon sequestration potentials under different scenarios from 2030 to 2050. The results showed that (1) the total carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin in 2020 was about 8.84 × 109 t. Above-ground biological carbon storage, below-ground biological carbon storage, and soil carbon storage accounted for 6.39%, 5.07%, and 89.70% of the total ecosystem carbon storage, respectively. From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the basin showed a trend in decreasing and then increasing, and the carbon storage in the west was larger than in the east and larger in the south than in the north. (2) Forest ecosystem was the main contributor to the increase in carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation were the main factors influencing the spatial pattern of carbon storage. (3) The ecological conservation scenario had the best carbon gain effect among the four future development scenarios, and appropriate ecological conservation policies could be formulated based on this scenario in the future to help achieve the goals of carbon sequestration and sink increase.

Impact of ecological conservation policies on land use and carbon stock in megacities at different stages of development

Urban expansion, especially the construction of megacities, increases carbon emissions and adversely affects the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. However, scientific land-use management policies can increase carbon storage. This study takes two megacities at different stages of development, Beijing and Tianjin, as examples to explore the impact of different ecological conservation scenarios on both urban land use and carbon storage to provide recommendations for the construction planning of large cities with low-carbon development as the goal. Furthermore, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to simulate land use and carbon storage under a natural development scenario, a planned ecological protection scenario (PEPS), and a policy-based ecological restoration scenario (PERS). From 2000 to 2020, both cities had different degrees of construction land expansion and carbon loss, and Tianjin's dynamic degree of construction land was 0.94% higher than Beijing's, with a carbon loss 183,536.19 Mg higher than Beijing's; this trend of reducing carbon reserves will continue under the natural development scenario (NDS). Under the PEPS and PERS, the carbon stock of both cities increases, and the impact on Tianjin is greater, with an increase of 4.51% and 8.04%, respectively. Under PERS, the carbon stock increases the most, but the dynamic degree of construction land use is negative for both cities. Beijing's carbon stock is 0.40% lower than Tianjin's, which deviates slightly from the trend of urban economic development. Megacities in the rapid development stage can refer to Tianjin, strictly following the ecological protection land planning scope and vigorously implementing ecological restoration policies to effectively increase regional carbon stock. Megacities in the mature stage of development can refer to Beijing, and flexibly implement ecological restoration policies to increase regional carbon stock without affecting the city's economic development.

Spatial–Temporal Changes and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Tibetan Plateau Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

The changes in the recent and future spatial–temporal patterns of carbon storage of the Tibetan Plateau and its dominant factors in different periods were unclear, and were conducive to optimizing the spatial layout of land. Exploring the spatial and temporal changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and their influencing factors during a long study period had important theoretical and practical significance for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. In this study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model (InVEST) was used to analyze the changes in carbon storage based on vegetation-type data during 2000–2020. The Path-generating Land-Use Simulation model (PLUS) was then used to predict the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the Tibetan Plateau in 2030 and 2060 under inertial development, farmland protection and ecology priority scenarios. The results showed that: (1) The degradation of vegetation types reduced the carbon storage during the study period. During 2000–2020, the desert shrub and non-vegetation area expanded by 63.21% and 13.35%, respectively, while the deciduous scrub, mixed forest and low coverage grassland decreased accordingly. The carbon storage of the Tibetan Plateau showed a decreasing trend by 0.37 × 106 t. (2) The spatial distribution patterns of carbon storage were consistent with that of the vegetation types. (3) In 2030 and 2060, under the constraint of the ecological priority development, the reduction in carbon storage was the smallest, at 0.01 × 106 t and 0.16 × 106 t, respectively. Under the constraint of the inertial development, carbon storage had the largest reduction, at 0.12 × 106 t and 0.43 × 106 t, respectively. (4) During 2000–2020, the dominant single factor that had the greatest impacts on the changes in carbon storage was FVC (vegetation coverage), with q values of 0.616, 0.619 and 0.567, respectively. The interactive dominant effects were mainly nonlinear enhancement and double-factor enhancement. The interactive dominant factors that had the greatest impact were FVC and the DEM (Digital Elevation Model), with q values of 0.94, 0.92 and 0.90, respectively. Therefore, ecological land with a high FVC should be protected and the expansion of non-vegetation areas should be restricted in future planning to improve the carbon storage level of the Tibetan Plateau and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.

An analysis of regional carbon stock response under land use structure change and multi-scenario prediction, a case study of Hefei, China

As the largest global carbon pool system, terrestrial ecosystems have an important role to maintain the stability of ecosystems. Human activities affect the structural changes in the ground surface and interfere with terrestrial ecosystem evolution, and consequently, carbon stock is changed in the region. Therefore, forecasting future carbon stock changes under different land use scenarios has important research implications for promoting stable evolution and cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. This study is conducted with the land use data from 2000 to 2020, and incorporates the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs model to analyze the changes in land use in Hefei, and its influence on the carbon stock in Hefei in various scenarios. During the study period, the mutual conversion between different land types in Hefei City made the land structure change within the study area more significant. The rapidly evolving surface structure is the reason for the decrease of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, with a cumulative decrease of 1.2 × 108 t. The spatial distribution in carbon storage in the study area shows a distribution pattern of low in the north and high in the south. The high carbon storage area is obviously banded in the study area. The area with obvious changes in surface structure has more obvious changes in carbon storage. Compared with the natural development scenario, the downward trend of carbon storage in the ecological protection scenario and the comprehensive development scenario has slowed down due to the restrictions on the structural transformation of land types and the implementation of relevant ecological protection policies. Therefore, this study will support the future management and policy making of Hefei City with the background of China's “double carbon” target and the significant position of Hefei City.

Dynamic simulation of land use and land cover and its effect on carbon storage in the Nanjing metropolitan circle under different development scenarios

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a pattern of alteration of the Earth’s land surface cover by human society and have a significant impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Optimizing the distribution of LULC is critical for the redistribution of land resources, the management of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, and global climate change. We integrated the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to simulate and assess future LULC and ecosystem carbon storage in the Nanjing metropolitan circle in 2030 under four scenarios: natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and collaborative development (CD). The results showed that (1) LULC and carbon storage distribution were spatially heterogenous in the Nanjing metropolitan circle for the different scenarios, with elevation, nighttime lights, and population being the main driving factors of LULC changes; (2) the Nanjing metropolitan circle will experience a carbon increase of 0.50 Tg by 2030 under the EP scenario and losses of 1.74, 3.56, and 0.48 Tg under the ND, ED, and CD scenarios, respectively; and (3) the CD scenario is the most suitable for the development of the Nanjing metropolitan circle because it balances ED and EP. Overall, this study reveals the effects of different development scenarios on LULC and ecosystem carbon storage, and can provide a reference for policymakers and stakeholders to determine the development patterns of metropolitan areas under a dual carbon target orientation.

Safety Net Ontario: Ontario’s outsized role in the “Global Safety Net” for climate and biodiversity

Dinerstein et al. present a spatially explicit global framework for protected areas needed to reverse catastrophic biodiversity losses and stabilize climate. The Province of Ontario (Canada) stands out in this “Global Safety Net (GSN)” as a critical jurisdiction for meeting those goals, because of both the large extent of roadless lands and high carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Simultaneously, pressure is increasing to develop unmanaged lands in Ontario, particularly in the Far North, for resource extraction. Here, we extract data from the GSN to identify and calculate the areal extent of target regions present in Ontario and critically review the results in terms of accuracy and implications for conservation. We show that when region-specific data are incorporated, Ontario is even more significant than what is shown in the GSN, especially in terms of carbon stocks in forested and open peatlands. Additionally, the biodiversity metrics used in the GSN only partially capture opportunities for conservation in Ontario, and the officially recognized extent of Indigenous lands vastly underestimates the role of First Nations in conservation. Despite these limitations, our analyses indicate that Ontario plays an outsized role in terms of its potential to impact the trajectories both of biodiversity and climate globally.

Evolution and Simulation of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Sustainability Assessment in Karst Areas: A Case Study of Guizhou Province

Against the background of "carbon neutrality" and sustainable development goals, it is of great significance to assess the carbon storage changes and sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems in order to maintain the coordinated sustainable development of regional ecological economies and the balance of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in Guizhou from 2010 to 2020 was assessed with the InVEST model. Using the PLUS model, the distribution of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage by 2030 and 2050 was predicted. The current sustainable development level of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was evaluated after establishing an index system based on SDGs. The results showed the following: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage decreased by 1106.68 × 104 Mg. The area and carbon storage of the forest and farmland ecosystems decreased while the area and carbon storage of the grassland and settlement ecosystems increased. (2) Compared with 2020, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage will be reduced by 4091.43 × 104 Mg by 2030. Compared with 2030, the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage will continue to decrease by 3833.25 × 104 Mg by 2050. (3) In 2020, the average score of the sustainable development of the terrestrial ecosystem was 0.4300. Zunyi City had the highest sustainable development score of 0.6255, and Anshun had the lowest sustainable development score of 0.3236. Overall, the sustainable development of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was found to be high in the north, low in the south, high in the east, and low in the west. The sustainable regional development of the terrestrial ecosystem of Guizhou was found to be unbalanced, and the carbon storage of the terrestrial ecosystem will keep decreasing in the future. In order to improve the sustainable development capacity of the terrestrial ecosystem, the government needs to take certain measures, such as returning farmland to forests and grasslands, curbing soil erosion, and actively supervising.

Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

In considering regional sustainable development, optimizing the distribution of land use and land cover (LULC) and improving terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) have emerged as major concerns. In this study, considering the synergistic effect between LULC and CS, a coupling model (named MPI) that integrates Multi-objective Optimization (MOP) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, was proposed to simulate the 2030 CS and explore its spatial-temporal characteristics in a Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH). The MPI model, which combines the advantages of the above three models, can optimize the LULC structure, simulate the LULC distribution, and efficiently extract CS variation. The results indicated that: (1) LULC changes in BTH were mostly represented in transfers between cropland, forest, and grassland; (2) three different scenarios were simulated using the MPI model, named BAU (Business as usual), EDP (Ecological development priority), and EEB (Ecological and economic balanced). The simulation results of the three scenarios are in line with their respective goals, and the results are quite different; (3) cropland, water, and bare land, will be reduced, and the constant shrinking of water is a pressing issue that must be addressed; and (4) the EEB scenario balanced ecological services and economic rewards, increased the ecosystem carbon sink function, and is an efficient way to investigate “carbon neutrality”. The application of the MPI model is of reference value for exploring the optimal configuration of land resources.