Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use and Cover Change: A Case Study of Jiangsu Coastal Cities in China

Abstract

Accurate estimation of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and the scientific formulation of ecological conservation and land use policies are essential for promoting regional low-carbon sustainable development and achieving the goal of “carbon neutrality.” In this study, the FLUS–InVEST model was used to evaluate the carbon stocks of the Jiangsu coastal zone in China from 1995 to 2020 and scientifically forecast the changes in carbon stocks in 2030 under three scenarios: natural exploitation, ecological protection, and economic development. The results are as follows: (1) From 1995 to 2020, carbon storage in the coastal zone initially remained stable before declining, a trend closely linked to the accelerated urbanization and economic growth of Jiangsu Province. (2) By 2030, carbon storage under the three scenarios exhibits a pattern of “S1 decrease–S2 increase–S3 decrease,” with a more significant increase in construction land under the natural development and economic development scenarios compared to the ecological protection scenario. (3) The sensitivity of carbon storage to land use changes varies across scenarios. In the natural development scenario, carbon storage is most affected by forest reduction and construction land expansion. In the ecological protection scenario, it is more responsive to increases in non-construction land. In the economic development scenario, the expansion of construction land leads to the most significant decrease in carbon storage. Therefore, when formulating future territorial spatial planning policies and urban development strategies, it is essential to consider ecological protection and economic development scenarios comprehensively, taking into account carbon sequestration capabilities. This approach will ensure effective conservation and restoration of damaged ecosystems while safeguarding the robust development of urban economies and societies.