Spatiotemporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems at Multiple Development Stages in Beijing City Based on the Plus and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Models

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, and their carbon sequestration capacity is vital for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics significantly alter this capacity. This study scrutinizes the LULC evolution within the Beijing metropolitan region from 1992 to 2022, evaluating its implications for ecosystem carbon storage. It also employs the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LULC patterns under four scenarios for 2035: an Uncontrolled Scenario (UCS), a Natural Evolution Scenario (NES), a Strict Control Scenario (SCS), and a Reforestation and Wetland Expansion Scenario (RWES). The InVEST model is concurrently used to assess and forecast ecosystem carbon storage under each scenario. Key insights from the study are as follows: (1) from 1992 to 2022, Beijing’s LULC exhibited a phased developmental trajectory, marked by an expansion of urban and forested areas at the expense of agricultural land; (2) concurrently, the region’s ecosystem carbon storage displayed a fluctuating trend, peaking initially before declining, with higher storage in the northwest and lower in the central urban zones; (3) by 2035, ecosystem carbon storage is projected to decrease by 1.41 Megatons under the UCS, decrease by 0.097 Megatons under the NES, increase by 1.70 Megatons under the SCS, and increase by 11.97 Megatons under the RWES; and (4) the study underscores the efficacy of policies curtailing construction land expansion in Beijing, advocating for sustained urban growth constraints and intensified afforestation initiatives. This research reveals significant changes in urban land use types and the mechanisms propelling these shifts, offering a scientific basis for comprehending LULC transformations in Beijing and their ramifications for ecosystem carbon storage. It further provides policymakers with substantial insights for the development of strategic environmental and urban planning initiatives.