Brazilian Transportation Sector Research Articles

Brazilian light vehicle fleet decarbonization scenarios for 2050

To encourage sustainable actions in the transportation sector, energy scenarios play a critical role in defining public policies. Possible scenarios for the technological distribution of light vehicles in 2050 were discussed to decarbonize the Brazilian transportation sector. These scenarios included internal combustion vehicles utilizing ethanol, gasoline hybrid vehicles, and battery-electric vehicles. An emissions minimization algorithm was proposed to identify potential decarbonization scenarios, considering fleet growth conditions obtained from national databases and Brazilian electric generation mix projections. The target was to achieve a 58% reduction in emissions by 2050. A 10% level of battery electric vehicle integration, combined with the widespread use of ethanol as a fuel source for internal combustion vehicles, could achieve the 58% reduction target. This highlights the importance of biofuels in low-carbon policies. Increasing the efficiency of the ethanol production chain could bring the decarbonization target up to 77%. The maximum sustainable share of electric vehicles in the Brazilian electric mix was 38%, indicating favorable scenarios for increasing the use of electric vehicles. The study highlights the potential for reducing emissions in the transportation sector using biofuels and electric vehicles, as well as the importance of optimizing the production chain of biofuels to maximize their efficiency.

Development of Policy-Relevant Dialogues on Barriers and Enablers for the Transition to Low-Carbon Mobility in Brazil

Establishing viable targets and pathways to achieve low-carbon mobility is proving to be a growing challenge, especially in emerging economies. Brazil has faced persistent economic and political crises, impacting current and future climate policies. The acceleration of resource exploitation and environmental degradation has increased the role of the transport sector in mitigating Brazilian emissions. Despite advances in instruments aimed at high-capacity infrastructure and the biodiesel and ethanol markets, electric mobility and other advanced biofuels, such as biokerosene and green diesel, are moving slowly. Part of this stems from severe technical, policy, and financial barriers that need to be addressed. This paper identifies the main barriers faced and the instruments needed to accelerate decarbonization in the Brazilian transport sector. To this purpose, a stakeholder-oriented approach is developed and applied to distill low-carbon opportunities and enablers over the next decade. This article reveals the important relationship between climate commitments, the different obstacles faced, and the possible consequences, taking different perspectives on appropriate reference points. By 2025, instruments aimed at electric mobility and public transport, although still scarce in current policies, will have greater potential for implementation. This contrasts with other advanced biofuels, which are not expected until the end of the decade.

Evaluation of indicators for vehicle penetration routes in the Brazilian transport sector

Climate change is upon us. The exponential use of fossil fuels for over two centuries is changing the world as we know it. An energy transition towards a greener world is needed and it may entail the decarbonization of several sectors, such as the passenger transport sector. This work aims to evaluate the role of four vehicle technologies, based on six vehicle penetration scenarios. This assessment is made using the comparison of three indicators for these scenarios, energy consumption, water consumption, and required infrastructural change. It was found that a pure battery-electric fleet would require the least amount of energy in 2050. There is also the issue with the loss of jobs in the sugar and alcohol sector, which can be reduced in this scenario of a battery electric vehicle fleet. The opportunities to maintain ethanol production as an energy vector in the transport sector are apparent.

An explanatory model of stock prices in the Brazilian transport sector

The aim of this study is to establish an explanatory model of the variation of the prices of shares from the transport sector listed in B3. Methodology: Daily stock prices were collected from companies in the transport sector listed on B3 since its IPO until December 31, 2019. Companies that were not on the floor on this date were discarded. As an analysis tool, simple and multiple linear regressions were used. The dependent variable (annual variation in the share price of the transport sector) was subjected to variables such as exchange rate variation, economic activity, as well as important inputs such as wages and fuel, and the Ibovespa variation. Results and conclusions: a model with less variables (Ibovespa variation and inflation variation) was adopted, where a determination coefficient of 0.5131 was obtained (linear coefficient of 0.716). The model, therefore, is closely linked to the stock index and the variation in the inflation index, giving a much more financial profile to these assets.

Estimated evolution of total pollutant gas emissions associated with vehicle activity in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre until 2030.

In recent years, the majority of economic sectors in Brazil have gone through processes of development and transformation. These processes have led to increases in environmental pollution of all kinds; air pollution being one of the most adverse. The Brazilian transportation sector, which heavily affects the air quality, experienced a significant increase in its vehicle fleet thus provoking larger emissions of pollutant gases, mainly in regions with high population density such as the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre (MRPA). Within this research, considering mainly the ozone precursor species and Carbon Monoxide and using the year 2001 as a base year, scenarios are obtained for vehicular emissions of pollutant gases in the MRPA until the year 2030. In addition, scenarios related to the evolution of the study region's vehicle fleet were estimated. The statistical tool LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) was used. The scenario analysis shows that the vehicle fleet will grow exponentially until 2030, considering that the Light Flex vehicles category will mainly contribute to this increase. It is also noted that vehicle emissions of CO, NOx, and THC decrease in the region. The decrease is caused mainly by the renewal of technology in new vehicles and the implementation of emission control programs created by the government.

Localização-alocação de centros de integração logística submetidos a demandas par-a-par

A partir do lançamento do Plano Nacional de Logística e Transporte – PNLT, o planejamento estratégico do setor de transportes brasileiro passou a apontar para a necessidade de instalação de Centros de Integração Logística – CILs; visando promover a intermodalidade e, consequentemente, aumentar tanto a eficiência do setor quanto a competitividade do país. Este trabalho investiga o uso de um modelo matemático de localização-alocação para o problema. O modelo se baseia no atendimento explícito de demandas par-a-par e na minimização dos custos logísticos envolvidos. Foi testado considerando um cenário que envolve quatro produtos economicamente relevantes e utilizando a base de dados georreferenciada do PNLT, estimada para o ano de 2023. Os resultados obtidos propõem a abertura de 10 CILs, reduzindo custos de transporte e gerando ganhos de eficiência para o setor, como um todo.

The carbon footprint appraisal of local visitor travel in Brazil: A case of the Rio de Janeiro-São Paulo itinerary

Tourism transportation contributes substantially to the global carbon footprint. This contribution is predicted to enlarge, especially in ‘emerging’ tourism markets, and hence urgent carbon mitigation is necessary. Effective mitigation is determined by reliable carbon footprint assessments whose number is however limited, particularly for developing countries with growing tourism. This study applied the life cycle assessment (LCA) based method to appraise the carbon significance of various transport modes between Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, the key itinerary for travel with leisure and tourism purposes by local residents and overseas visitors in Brazil. Given the envisaged rise in biofuel use in the Brazilian transportation sector, this study is unique in that it evaluated the carbon reduction potential offered by biofuel. The study demonstrated that overland public transport represents the most carbon-efficient mode of local transportation. It further highlighted the crucial role of biofuel in minimising the carbon intensity of transportation between Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. Policy-making and managerial recommendations were put forward to facilitate more climate-benign local transportation practices.

Renewable and non-renewable exergy costs and CO2 emissions in the production of fuels for Brazilian transportation sector

An exergy and environmental comparison between the fuel production routes for Brazilian transportation sector, including fossil fuels (natural gas, oil-derived products and hydrogen), biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) and electricity is performed, and the percentage distribution of exergy destruction in the different units of the processing plants is characterized. An exergoeconomy methodology is developed and applied to properly allocate the renewable and non-renewable exergy costs and CO2 emission cost among the different products of multiproduct plants. Since Brazilian electricity is consumed in the upstream processing stages of the fuels used in the generation thereof, an iterative calculation is used. The electricity mix comprises thermal (coal, natural gas and oil-fired), nuclear, wind and hydroelectric power plants, as well as bagasse-fired mills, which, besides exporting surplus electricity, also produce sugar and bioethanol. Oil and natural gas-derived fuels production and biodiesel fatty acid methyl-esters (FAME) derived from palm oil are also analyzed. It was found that in spite of the highest total unit exergy costs correspond to the production of biofuels and electricity, the ratio between the renewable to non-renewable invested exergy (cR/cNR) for those fuels is 2.69 for biodiesel, 4.39 for electricity, and 15.96 for ethanol, whereas for fossil fuels is almost negligible.

The impact of a growing bioethanol industry on food production in Brazil

The Brazilian production of major food commodities increased fivefold between 1961 and 2008. In the same time, the area cropped with sugar cane increased with high growth rates, currently covering 3% of the area dedicated to agricultural production in Brazil. In order to assess a possible competition between biofuel and food production, the development of agricultural productivity and area expansion in the past was analysed. Furthermore, the future situation of land resources for agricultural production was illustrated. The findings of this study indicated that area resources of more than 20 million hectare would be available for agricultural production in the upcoming years. A current constraint of food production throughout land dedicated to biofuels was not found. Three scenarios were investigated, simulating possibilities of future changes in Brazilian agriculture. The results demonstrated that primary food production could be enhanced by 1.5 times while bioethanol production was enhanced simultaneously by 1.8 times over the years 2007/2008 and 2020. The generated bioethanol volumes would meet 38% of the total energy demand in Brazilian transport sector, applied to the year 2007. The second scenario evaluated an agricultural development with a higher focus on biofuels. It was projected that the production of bioethanol could be increased by 3.0 times to 76.7 million m 3 of bioethanol, while increasing at the same time primary food production with the factor 1.4 aligned to the projected population growth. This bioethanol volume represents 67% of the total energy demand in Brazilian transport sector in the year 2007. A third scenario demonstrated that food production could be increased even with no area expansion higher than the projected population growth, due to a continued increase of productivity. At the same time bioethanol production would rise to 32 million m 3 without occupying more area.

Brazilian transport initiatives with GHG reductions as a co-benefit

High oil prices and poor air quality in the urban areas are important factors that motivate efforts to cut consumption of petroleum products. Four public policy initiatives for the Brazilian transport sector are analysed: the adoption of flexfuel technology; the National Biodiesel Programme; the National Vehicle Efficiency Programme; and the Rio de Janeiro State Light Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programme. Economic impacts (petrol and diesel avoided) are shown. Significant co-benefits are shown in terms of reduced CO2 emissions that are often not considered or accounted for by Brazilian policy makers. Lessons from these initiatives for domestic and international policy are presented.

Brazilian transport initiatives with GHG reductions as a co-benefit

High oil prices and poor air quality in the urban areas are important factors that motivate efforts to cut consumption of petroleum products. Four public policy initiatives for the Brazilian transport sector are analysed: the adoption of flexfuel technology; the National Biodiesel Programme; the National Vehicle Efficiency Programme; and the Rio de Janeiro State Light Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programme. Economic impacts (petrol and diesel avoided) are shown. Significant co-benefits are shown in terms of reduced CO2 emissions that are often not considered or accounted for by Brazilian policy makers. Lessons from these initiatives for domestic and international policy are presented.

Railway Reform in Brazil: Recent Performance and Prospects

The privatization of the rail network, which started in 1996, is the main motivation for this analysis of the recent performance of and prospects for the sector. The paper starts with a brief description of the evolution of the Brazilian transport sector and its relationship with the country’s economic development. The second section presents an overview of the size and relative importance of the transport sector by mode, and the characteristics of intermodal competition. The operational and cost structure of the rail sector is then analyzed in detail and compared to its tariffs. The limited cash flow generation of the rail concessionaires is set against the investment needs of the sector for service expansion. The conclusions drawn from the financial performance analysis prompt a discussion of the prospects for the Brazilian rail sector.

The Regulatory Challenges of the Brazilian Transportation Sector

This paper identifies the main challenges regarding the regulation of the transportation sector in Brazil after the privatization phase that recently occurred. The complexities of the regulatory and institutional aspects of the transportation sector are emphasized with respect to the complementary and competitive elements that exist among suppliers, links and subsystems. The analysis focuses on ports, railways and highways subsectors.

00/02982 The use of ethanol from sugar cane in the Brazilian transport sector

00/02982 The use of ethanol from sugar cane in the Brazilian transport sector