Analysis Of Historical Trends Research Articles

Analysis and Projection of Land-Use/Land-Cover Dynamics through Scenario-Based Simulations Using the CA-Markov Model: A Case Study in Guanting Reservoir Basin, China

Understanding the rate and process of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change in a watershed is essential for managing natural resources and achieving sustainable development. Therefore, this study aims to analyze historical LULC change from 1980 to 2010 and project future changes in 2030, 2060, and 2090 in the Guanting Reservoir Basin (GRB), China, a critical water-supplying watershed for China’s capital Beijing, through scenario-based simulations. Two LULC scenarios, ‘business-as-usual’ and ‘governance’ (Gov), were projected using the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA–Markov) model. Historical LULC trend analysis shows that built-up land increased from 2.6% in 1980 to 5.26% in 2010, while cropland, grassland, and water body decreased. LULC conversion analysis indicates that, in general, grassland, cropland, and woodland were converted to built-up area from 1980 to 2010. The BAU scenario projects a dramatic increase in built-up area, rising from 2296.98 km2 (5.26%) in 2010 to 11,757.35 km2 (26.93%) in 2090 at the expense of cropland and grassland areas. Conversely, the Gov scenario predicts an increase in water body, woodland, and grassland, encouraging sustainable development. Overall, these results provide useful inputs to the LULC planners and water resources managers to elaborate on eco-friendly policies and regulations for GRB.

Projecting China's future water footprint under the shared socio-economic pathways

Increasing water scarcity in China is further exacerbated by the rapid socio-economic development and uneven spatial distribution of water resources. Current studies on water footprint have mainly focused on historical accounting and trend analysis at the provincial scale. However, a comprehensive exploration of future water footprint would be vital to a better understanding of future water shortage challenges, and more importantly, would allow the mitigation of water scarcity and inequal water distribution. In this paper, we present an approach to project the future water footprint of China at a fine resolution (0.125 arc-degree) under the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenario framework, which described five future alternative socio-economic development pathways over the 21st century. We first simulated the future spatial patterns of built-up land using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and derived the future population growth and urbanization rate from the population projection provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Then future water footprint was projected according a log-transformed linear regression calibrated with historical data during 2007–2012. We found that the total volume of China's water footprint will increase significantly in the future under the SSP1, SSP4 and SSP5 scenarios, reaching up to nearly 400 billion m3 in 2050, equivalent to almost 40% increase compared to that in 2010. The spatial patterns of future water footprint show dramatic increase (up to 100–130%) in the eastern provinces (Shandong, Henan, and Hebei), and slight decrease were found in the western provinces (Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Qinghai). In addition, the future water footprints were found to share very similar spatial patterns at local pixel scale among different SSP scenarios in three of the largest metropolitan areas of China (Beijing-Hebei-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta). These findings provide extensive knowledge of the future water footprint and suggest a more severe water scarcity in the future from a consumption-oriented perspective. More effective water management policies are urgently needed to mitigate future water resource scarcity and inequality.

ОЦЕНКА АТМОСФЕРНОЙ ЭМИССИИ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ГАЗОВ ОТ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ПЕРЕВОЗОК ИЗ РОССИИ ВОЗДУШНЫМ И ВОДНЫМ ТРАНСПОРТОМ

The current intensive development of shipping and aviation is accompanied by an increase in anthropogenic impact on the environment and climate. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) assessments, greenhouse gas emissions from international air and sea traffic are expected to increase by 2-3 times by 2050. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from international aviation and navigation from the territory of Russia for the period of 1990-2018 were estimated, the dynamics and the main drivers of emissions changes are analyzed, international comparisons are provided. The calculation was made in accordance with the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on the data from the Federal Air Transport Agency and IAA «Port News». Analysis of historical trends shows that greenhouse gas emissions dynamics during the reporting period for international sea and air shippingis almost the same. In 2018, the total emission of CO2, СH4 and N2O from international transport from the territory of Russia amounted to 47.0 million tons of CO2-equivalent, which is 2.7 times higher than in 1990. Carbon dioxide dominates in the component composition of the emissions, its share in the total emission amounted to 99.5%. Contributions of methane and nitrous oxide emissions were 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Shipping makes a major contribution to emissions. Russia's share of worldwide carbon dioxide emission from international water and aviation transport does not exceed 3.5%.Emissions from aviation and shipping have been largely driven by economy and international trade. Greenhouse gases emissions from international aviation and maritime transport are expected to decrease in the coming years related to IMO's banon high-sulfur fuel use and reduction of international air and sea traffic in the light of the spread of the coronavirus in 2020.

LITHUANIAN ETHNOMUSICOLOGY AT THE TURNS OF CENTURIES: HISTORICAL OVERVIEW AND PERSPECTIVES

The purpose of this submitted scientific article is based on emphasizing of historical overview and perspectives of Lithuanian ethnomusicology at the turns of the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries. The target of this investigation is defined on analysis of actual historical publications and research trends and directions in Lithuanian ethnomusicology. The methods of this represented exploration are formed on the basis of historical method, where some well-known stereotypes have to be re-thought. Systemic method is also important here to understand the whole scientific context of contemporary and historical investigations on Lithuanian singing folklore, traditional choreography and instrumental music. The structurally analytical method allows maximal profoundly holding out the contemporary outlook concerning previous actual investigations on this theme. The scientific newness of the presented article is determined by new facts concerning the evaluation of Lithuanian folklore heritage research, dissemination and propagation process during last 150 years. The actual facts discovering from large period of historical times in Lithuanian ethnomusicology might be understood as also important novelty of this our scientific work. Conclusions. Lithuanian ethnomusicology historically may be presented as quite closed system of internal musical folklore studies in defined Lithuanian ethnic regions and in Lithuania in general. Right now we have very new situation with open cultural and intercultural contacts between neighbouring and even far-away located states and cultures. It is important to develop scientific studies of Lithuanian ethnomusicology at present in two main directions. The first direction is to continue deep and complex studies of our local and regional Lithuanian musical folklore. The second direction is to look for contacts in interdisciplinary studies. We will be able to understand the motivation of particular our musical folklore forms, connecting our knowledge with linguists, historics, archaeologists, etc. And, of course, we have not to forget, that ethnomusicology is a part of musicology in general. So, we have to be well educated in theory and history of music, both traditional and professional ones.

Colonialism and the Agikuyu Women Indigenous Knowledge Systems on Food Crop Production in Kiambu Kenya 1902-1918

The introduction colonial capitalist economic policies and practices such as land alienation, forced labour and commercial crop production acted as a major catalyst of change on the existing African indigenous subsistence production especially the Agikuyu Women’s Indigenous Knowledge System (AWIKS). This research paper focused on examining the effects of European colonialism on the AWIKS on food crop production from 1902-1918. The study employed descriptive research design and historical trend analysis and it was done in three sub-counties of Kiambu West, namely, Limuru, Lari and Kikuyu. Purposive and snowballing technique was used to get the respondents who were the bearers of the most relevant information. The main source of information was the corroboration of oral interviews, archival records analysis and secondary data. Oral interviews data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) and reported using basic simple descriptive statistics. The Women and Development (WAD) theory helped to examine the nature in which the Agikuyu women were integrated in colonial capitalist economy, which explains their marginalization, subordination, oppression and dependency on men. The study found out that during the establishment of colonial rule the Agikuyu people were moved from their indigenous land and were pushed to poor, marginal and unproductive reserve areas where they did not have enough experience and accumulated indigenous knowledge system of the new agro-ecosystem. In addition, most of the drought tolerant food crops were neglected and others destroyed a move that may have led to underutilization of AWIKS on food crop production. This implied that the food supply was compromised and the society became more vulnerable to drought and famine. Therefore, in order to enhance food supply in the households some of the AWIKS on food crop production may be integrated into the modern western agricultural production practices.

Health morbidity in Brazilian prisons: a time trends study from national databases

ObjectiveThe goal of this study was to explore the surveillance data about mandatory reporting diseases, included in the official information systems, and evaluate the historical trend analysis in prisoners in...

Міграція українців на доіндустріальному етапі суспільного розвитку

The subject of the research is the migration history of Ukrainians at the pre-industrial stage of social development. The purpose of the article is the historical and economic analysis of migration trends and the identification of geographical vectors of the first migration flows on Ukrainian lands and the institutional factors and socioeconomic consequences of the spread of migration sentiment among the population during the period. The result of the study is the identification of features of the first migration flows in the Ukrainian territory, the classification of migration according to its causes, the identification of directions of the resettlement of Ukrainians and the consequences of emigration of Ukrainians. It was revealed that the labour migration of Ukrainians was preceded by political migration related to the regular attacks of Tatars and Turks, the fall of Kievan Rus, the loss of national statehood, the colonization of Ukrainian lands by foreign states. In spite of a number of negative consequences, the Ukrainian people received both economic benefits and qualitative progress in state-building. At the same time, labour migration led to the irreversible loss of the economically active working population, above all the peasantry, who were the most important group among Ukrainian emigrants. The main factors contributing to the labour migration of Ukrainians were similar: institutional (abolition of serfdom), demographic (reduction of mortality rate, while maintaining high fertility), socio-economic (low-income Ukrainian peasants, mass impoverishment and low standards of living), innovative infrastructure (development of the newest means of communication and large geographical discoveries) that encouraged intercountry resettlement. However, the vector of migratory flows of Ukrainians was rather diverse: Ukrainians under Austro-Hungary (Galicia, Northern Bukovina and Transcarpathian Ukraine) were covered by intercontinental migration (USA, Canada, Brazil and Argentina), while the peasants of the Left Bank and Central Ukraine migrated to the Northern Caucasus and the Far East.

Analysis of climate change and future projection of rainfall, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in Riam Kanan catchment area, Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan

Climatic conditions in Indonesia warm up indicated by the increasing of the average annual temperature by 0.3°C. This may cause higher water evaporation and increased rainfall intensity. Changes in rainfall patterns shift the start of the rainy season to be slower and end faster. These changes the dry season to become longer with shorter time intervals. In case of dam operation, dam manager needs to adapt the effects of climate change. This paper presents trend and future projection in Riam Kanan Catchment Area, Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan. Climate change historical trend analysis was carried out with the observation data used were rainfall and maximum temperature from BMKG climatology station, Banjarbaru Station, in the period 1983 - 2017. Future projection analysis was carried out by using RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario data for projecting rainfall and temperature in the period 2018 - 2100. The result shows that the rainfall, maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration trends in Banjarbaru from 1983 - 2017 were not too significant by +0.1 mm, -0.5°C, and +0.1 mm. While the projection of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario shows increase by +0.1 mm, +0.1°C, +0.1 mm and by +0.1 mm, +3.3°C, and +0.1 mm. Keywords: Climate Change, Trend, Rainfall, Temperature, Evapotranspiration, RCP 2.6, RCP8.5.

Research on the Composite Index of the Modern Chinese Energy System

The Chinese government is going to “push ahead the revolution of energy production and consumption, and establish a clean, low-carbon, secure, and efficient energy system”, which points out a direction for the energy industry in the new era. Using the analytic hierarchy process of the system analysis method, we constructed an indicator system of the modern Chinese energy system, and by determining the weighting of each indicator, we obtained the composite index of the modern Chinese energy system, as well as four sub-indexes of clean, low-carbon, secure, and efficient. Then, we investigated policy changes and energy development characteristics of important periods, and performed historical trend analysis. Finally, we forecasted the composite index and four sub-indexes by 2050, and proposed an energy development path and policy suggestions to achieve a modern Chinese energy system as soon as possible.

Cohort Analysis and Reporting for Graduate Attribute Assessment

The Graduate Attribute Information Analysis system (GAIA) was developed at the University of Ottawa to support data collection and performance management of graduate attributes for engineering programs at the program level and at the course level [10]. This paper reports on our research to develop support for cohort analysis and reporting by providing a single consistent view of graduate attributes (GA) and performance indicators for groups of students who started and finished an engineering program at the same time. This is supported by two special purpose reports: Graduate Attribute Report per Cohort (GAR/C) and Course Progression Report per Cohort (CPR/C). The former shows average GA data per attribute, the latter tracks student achievement as students progress in their program. It also adds to the historic data trend analysis for a program. Furthermore, a COOP Progress Report per cohort (COOPR/C) is generated.

Historical shoreline trend analysis and drivers of coastal change along the Ravenna coast, NE Adriatic

One of the most important aspects of coastal zone management is the analysis of shoreline dynamics. Over the last years, beaches of the Ravenna coast (NE Italy) experienced large modifications, in some places narrowing or even being completely lost, thus threatening tourism, coastal assets and nature. Coastal erosion has direct consequences for Ravenna tourist-based economy, which largely depends on the attraction provided by sandy beaches. In this study, long-term (> 50 years) coastal analysis was used to identify the sectors along the coast where the shoreline position has changed, either advancing or retreating. Shoreline changes were measured on GIS environment by means of Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) extension. Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) strategies were employed to examine shoreline variability and reveal erosional/accretional trends. The results show that significant shoreline changes affected the entire coastal region, with most of the study area under retreat, mainly in the most valuable tourist assets of the littoral. The effects were found to be worsened by impacts of land subsidence, presence of harbor infrastructure and deficit in sediment budget. A simple shoreline classification was performed over the DSAS results and cross-checked with local knowledge of the area. The measurement of erosion or accretion rates in each studied segment is found to be useful for land use planning and coastal management plans, especially regarding the prediction of future shoreline positions. Especially important is the potential of the classification to identify areas of significant position change, with current and future implications for the design of sustainable shoreline management and mitigation measures.

Historical trend analysis and future projections of precipitation from CMIP5 models in the Alborz mountain area, Iran

Precipitation changes in annual and seasonal time series over the Alborz Mountains area during 1950–2014 were analyzed using historical observations from 154 rain gauge stations. The projected changes in precipitation for the twenty-first century were evaluated using three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets. Trends in the precipitation time series were detected by linear regression and its significance was tested by t test. Mann–Kendall rank test (MK test) and Sen’s slope estimator were also employed to confirm the results. Sequential Mann–Kendall test (SQ-MK test) was also applied for change point detection in annual and seasonal precipitation time series. Pre-whitening was used to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the MK test. Future precipitation was analyzed by GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-AO and MPI-ESM-MR models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The analysis of the historical precipitation series indicated an insignificant trend in the annual and seasonal series at most stations. The highest numbers of stations with negative significant trends occurred in winter and with positive significant trends in summer. The results of change point detection in annual and seasonal precipitation series show that most of the significant mutation points began in the 1970s. The future projections showed that precipitation may decrease according to most of the models under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, while the decrease may not be large, except in the summer season for the end of this century.

The Trend Analysis of Lakes Region Precipitation Data in Turkey

In recent years, population growth, urbanization, tainted water use
 policies, water pollution due to industrialization and climate change has led
 to the re-evaluation of water resources. Because the protection plans developed
 in the past have lost their validity, the new prevention plans made today have
 caused to the critical analysis. In this research, the monthly precipitation
 data was analyzed for Lakes Region located in the Middle Mediterranean Regionin
 Turkey. For this purpose, the data were subjected to homogeneity test, and the
 Mann Kendall test, the Sen’s test and the lineer regression for trend analysis
 were applied to data. The analyses for historical monthly precipitation records
 were made to nine meteorological stations which identified in the study area:the Ağlasun, Barla,
 Aksu, Bucak, Yalvaç, Sütçüler, Kızılkaya, Kasımlar, and Gelendost stations. Also, 3, 6,
 9, 12 monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values of these stations
 were examined by using the Mann Kendall test, Sen’s test and lineer regression
 to support historical trend analysis. According to the results of the tests, a
 decreasing trend has been observed in most of the nine stations.

Historical Analysis of Bibliometric Trends in the Journal of Pediatric Orthopaedics With a Particular Focus on Sex.

Orthopaedics is the clinical discipline with the lowest percentage of female residents and faculty. Pediatric orthopaedics has a higher percentage of women than other orthopaedic subspecialties. It was the purpose of this study to examine bibliometric trends in the Journal of Pediatric Orthopaedics (JPO) with a specific focus on sex. A bibliometeric analysis for the years 2015, 2005, 1995, 1985, 1981 was performed. The names of first and corresponding authors; corresponding author position; country of origin; number of institutions, countries, authors, printed pages, and references was tabulated. Author sex was identified for the first and corresponding authors using the "Baby Name Guesser" (www.gpeters.com/names/baby-names.php). A P<0.05 was considered significant. There were 746 publications; 68.7% were from North America. The average number of authors, corresponding author position, collaborating institutions, countries, and number of references increased, whereas the number of printed pages decreased. Asia had the greatest number of authors (4.4), with Australia/New Zealand the fewest (3.4). Sex was determined for 98.3% of the first authors and 98.5% of the corresponding authors. There was a significant increase in the number of female first authors over time (5.9% to 25.6%, P<10), especially in Europe and North America. There were significant increase in the number of female corresponding authors over time (5.8% to 17.6%, P=0.000009). There was a significant trend to have a greater percentage of both female first and corresponding authors over time (P=0.0005) with a reverse trend for both male first and corresponding authors (P<10). In this study, we noted that the number of female first and corresponding authors in Journal of Pediatric Orthopaedics has been steadily increasing. This should result in more female pediatric orthopaedic surgeons in academic faculty positions.

Analysis of Historical Trend of Eutrophication in Lake Nakaumi, Japan, Using Concentrations of Several Index Elements in Sediment Cores

Analysis of Historical Trend of Eutrophication in Lake Nakaumi, Japan, Using Concentrations of Several Index Elements in Sediment Cores

Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil

ABSTRACT The intensification of drought incidence is one of the most important threats of the 21st century with significant effects on food security. Accordingly, there is a need to improve the understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on this hazard. This study assessed long-term trends in probability-based drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index) in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Owing to the multi-scalar nature of both indices, the analyses were performed at 1 to 12-month time scales. The indices were calculated by means of a relativist approach that allowed us to compare drought conditions from different periods. The years 1961-1990 were used as the referential period. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first time that such relativist approach is used in historical trend analysis. The results suggest that the evapotranspiration rates have intensified the regional drought conditions. The time scale used to calculate the indices significantly affected the outcomes of drought trend assessments. The reason behind this feature is that the significant changes in the monthly regional patterns are limited to a specific period of the year. More specifically, virtually all significant changes have been observed during the first trimester of the rainy season (October, November and December). Considering that this period corresponds to critical plant growth stages (flowering/regrowth/sprouting) of several major crops (e.g. Sugarcane and Citrus), we may conclude that these significant changes have increased the risk of crop yield reductions due to agricultural drought.

History and Prospects of Natural Gas Pricing in Continental Europe in Conditions of Instability of World Oil Prices

The article substantiates the need to assess changes in world prices for natural gas in conditions of volatility in world oil prices. The study is aimed at making forecasts of changes in world prices for natural gas in Continental Europe based on historical trend analysis. The main method of the study is the method of correlation-regression analysis, with the help of which the strength of the correlation of world prices for natural gas from world oil prices was revealed. Also, methods of historical trend and mathematical analysis were used to determine the main forecast scenarios for natural gas price levels. The study is a new approach to analyzing the pricing of world prices for natural gas based on the revealed dependence on world oil prices. The article examines the natural gas market of Continental Europe in dynamics and analyzes its evolution, as well as a link to the world oil market to make forecasts of the cost of natural gas.

Forecast Scenarios of World Prices for Natural Gas

The study proposes forecast scenarios for the development of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling and the analysis of the historical trend of extraction, consumption, export and import of natural gas. The main research method is correlation-regression analysis which allowed establishing how strong the correlation of world prices for natural gas and world oil prices is. Also, the methods of historical trend and mathematical analysis were used to determine the main forecast scenarios for price levels of natural gas. The study represents a new approach to the analysis of the dynamics of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling. The article examines the dynamics of the global natural gas market and analyzes trends in price changes, as well as establishes the relationship between global prices for natural gas and the world oil market for making forecasts of the cost of natural gas.

Analysis of historical trend of pollution sources of lead in Tokyo Bay based on lead isotope ratios in sediment core

The historical trend of pollution sources of Pb in Tokyo Bay, Japan was investigated on the basis of Pb isotope ratios in a sediment core. The isotope ratios of anthropogenic Pb decreased gradually with increasing Pb concentration in the 1900s–1970s, suggesting a combination of Pb sources with various isotope ratios. In contrast, the isotope ratios of anthropogenic Pb in the 1980s–2000s showed no significant trend, and corresponded to the Pb isotope ratios in the three principal rivers flowing into the bay. It is probable that river bottom sediments contaminated with Pb are principal sources of anthropogenic Pb in Tokyo Bay.

Analysis of Historical Trends and Recent Elimination of Malaria from Sri Lanka and Its Applicability for Malaria Control in Other Countries.

Sri Lanka is a tropical island located South of India in the Indian Ocean. Malaria has been prevalent in the island for centuries but the country succeeded in eliminating the disease in 2013. Factors governing the past endemicity of malaria and its successful elimination from Sri Lanka in 2013 are analyzed. There is evidence that malaria might have been first introduced in the thirteenth century into a dry zone area with extensive irrigation works. Regular widespread epidemics of the disease have been documented in the twentieth century. The island nature of Sri Lanka, generally low transmission rates, widespread and accessible government hospitals and clinics that provide free and readily available diagnosis and treatment for malaria, adequate financial support and commitment to the Antimalaria Campaign (AMC), national and decentralized malaria control efforts sustained over a long period by dedicated and competent AMC staff, and the absence of zoonotic malaria are recognized as key factors responsible for eliminating malaria from Sri Lanka. These factors are analyzed in the context of their relevance to the present malaria elimination efforts in other countries with the overall aim of globally eradicating the disease.