Analysis Of Historical Trends Research Articles

Thirty years of research in tropical medicine: historical trends for the world and for the Revista de Biología Tropical (1990-2020)

Introduction: The importance of tropical medicine cannot be overstated, since by the end of the 2030s, most humans will live in the tropics and will need protection from tropical diseases. Nevertheless, until now, there are no bibliometric studies about tropical medicine as a whole; all previous studies are limited to diseases, countries or particular journals, and are often limited to brief periods of time. Here we present an analysis of historical trends for the world and for the Revista de Biología Tropical in celebration of the journal’s 70th anniversary. 
 Objective: To assess geographic and historical trends in the study of tropical medicine included in a general database, the Web of Science and from a detailed analysis of one journal of particular importance for the field in the neotropical region. 
 Methods: We limited our data to journals covered by the Web of Science category “tropical medicine” in the Science Citation Index Expanded (data updated 19 January 2022) and the Journal Citation Report on 30 June 2021. 
 Results: We retrieved 69 480 articles, of which 44 % resulted from international collaboration with 194 participating countries; articles may reach 17–21 citations each, and the countries with outstanding results in the database include USA, Brazil, UK, Kenya and Switzerland. Research focus changes as diseases such as HIV, Dengue and tuberculosis become more or less important over time, but overall there was much research on Plasmodium, leishmaniasis and schistosomiasis. The journal Revista de Biología Tropical has significantly increased the number of topics covered, but still publishes studies about tropical biomedical subjects.
 Conclusions: While countries with large research budgets have a large presence in this database, lower income tropical countries like Brazil and Kenya have done a remarkable contribution in the field of tropical medicine. The Revista de Biología Tropical has been publishing quality research about tropical medicine for the last seven decades.

A comprehensive assessment of transportation emissions in Nigeria: Trends, drivers, and impacts

This study presents an in-depth investigation into the complex dynamics surrounding transportation emissions in Nigeria against the backdrop of rapid urbanization, population growth, and economic development. Through an extensive analysis of historical trends and recent developments, the article elucidates the escalating challenges posed by emissions. Examining the drivers of transportation emissions, including population growth, economic development, and fuel choices, the study underscores the significant correlation between economic growth and emissions while scrutinizing their environmental and public health ramifications. It also explores the prevalent use of fuels in Nigeria's transportation sector, highlighting the imperative of transitioning to cleaner energy sources and leveraging technological innovations for emission reduction and sustainability. Evaluation of existing policy frameworks and regulatory mechanisms offers insights into their efficacy in emission mitigation, along with emphasizing Nigeria's commitments under international agreements like the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. The socioeconomic impacts of transportation emissions, encompassing public health costs, economic losses from traffic congestion, and broader economic implications, are scrutinized. The study concludes with a compelling call to action for immediate policy reforms, sustainable transportation solutions, and international collaboration. As the world grapples with climate change and environmental degradation, this comprehensive assessment aims to inform policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders, serving as a crucial resource for charting a sustainable course for Nigeria's transportation sector.

Streamlining Data Archiving for Enhanced Historical Insight and Trend Analysis

Efficient data archiving is crucial for organizations aiming to derive valuable insights from historical data for trend analysis and decision-making. This paper explores various approaches and strategies for optimizing data archiving processes to facilitate historical analysis. It delves into the challenges associated with managing large volumes of historical data and proposes solutions to address these challenges. Additionally, the paper highlights the importance of efficient data retrieval techniques and discusses emerging trends and technologies shaping the future of data archiving for historical analysis n 2023, Throughout my tenure up to 2023 as a Senior Big Data Engineer at Wells Fargo, I have been at the forefront of navigating and resolving complex data challenges. This paper reflects the culmination of insights and experiences gained during this period, focusing on optimizing data archiving processes for historical analysis. The financial sector, known for its stringent regulatory requirements and the critical importance of data integrity and security, offered a unique set of challenges, particularly in the realm of data archiving and historical data analysis.

Sales Forecast of New Energy Vehicles in China Based on LSTM Model

With the increasingly serious environmental protection problems and the rapid increase of global energy consumption, new energy vehicles, as an alternative to traditional fossil fuel vehicles, show a strong development trend in China and the global automobile market. Therefore, whether we can accurately predict the future sales of new energy vehicles is of great significance for government decision-making, enterprise investment strategy and other aspects. Through the analysis of historical sales data, market trends and related factors, we use the long-term and short-term memory (LSTM) model to predict the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China. The experimental results indicate that the model has high accuracy and reliability in predicting the sales of new energy vehicles.

Evaluating the long-term geomorphic process in-relation to hydrodynamics in the central coastal zone of Bangladesh

The central coast of Bangladesh is dynamic for its geographical location, hydrodynamic characteristics and residual flow. The research employed the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), an ArcGIS extension tool, to conduct a historical trend analysis of shoreline. The study demonstrates that the central coast is eroding to the north and accreting to the south. The highest accretion value was found as 195.42 m/year, whereas the maximum value of erosion was estimated as −185.83 m/year, according to End Point Rate (EPR). The Linear Regression Rate (LRR) indicates that the average rate of erosion and accretion are −17.77 m/year and 17.88 m/year, respectively. Meanwhile, using Weighted Linear Regression (WLR), 0.48% of all transects demonstrated statistically significant erosion, while 0.43% showed statistically significant accretion. During the wet season, heavy river discharge leads to a low salt level in the ocean. Ocean currents hit central coast of Bangladesh from east to west, affecting the majority of the islands in the Meghna Estuary in the dry season. Changes in current directions can be seen during the wet seasons. Southern central coast areas are hit by south-east currents that split in two directions. The Sandwip Channel has a flow of 10,000 to 15,000 m³ s−1 northward. The Tetulia River, Shahbazpur Channel, and Hatia-Sandwip flow southward at rates ranging from 3000 to 17,000 m³ s−1, 14,000 to 60,000 m³ s−1, and 7000 to 39,000 m³ s−1, respectively. In the Meghna Estuary, the combined forces result in a counter-clockwise residual circulation, with the northward flow in the Sandwip channel and southbound flow in the Hatia and Shahbazpur channels. As a result of hydrodynamic, ocean currents, and residual flow, the Central Coast of Bangladesh is continually changing in appearance.

A universal optimization framework for commercial building loads using DERs from utility tariff perspective with tariff change impacts analysis

To accommodate the changes in the nature and the pattern of electricity consumption with the available resources, utilities have introduced variety of tariffs over the years. This paper develops a comprehensive optimization framework that addresses the challenges associated with the diversity of utility tariffs for commercial loads. Optimization of commercial building net load through Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) and renewable energy resources is modeled and explored for minimizing billing cost for different tariffs. Cost functions are formulated for each possible commercial utility tariff type, engendering the universal cost function format. An algorithm is developed to apply the optimization model and generate the desired optimal outputs (e.g., optimal net load and BESS power, costs and savings, etc.). The results for several building loads and all tariff types are compared and analyzed to present the findings. An impacts analysis is performed to observe how different changes in tariffs affect the optimizations results. Results exhibit that for same building load and renewable generation, the tariff type can have an overwhelming impact on costs and savings. Tariffs without Time of Use (TOU) charges or peak demand charge components offer lower savings opportunity from BESS optimization. Price change sensitivities showed the complicated dynamics among TOU price components on savings and historical trend analysis as an effective tool to predict future savings. Tradeoff between energy and demand charge heavy tariff options are also discussed for user benefit. The recent change in TOU time periods presents limited desired benefits while the modified tariff proposed in this paper exhibit significant improvement in terms of utility operation.

Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6

This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to identify the climate change scenario that is most closely aligned with the socio-environmental conditions of the south-southeast zone of Mexico and that has the greatest impact on the region’s average temperature. The downscaling method of bias correction was conducted at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, and an analysis of historical trends was performed for the period 1980–2014 with ERA5 and four CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0). This process was extended to future projections. The models indicated temperature differences of less than 0.5 °C with respect to ERA5, in agreement with other studies. Additionally, the current study calculated future trends for the south-southeast region using three of the CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). The z-eq proposal was used to compare the slopes, enabling us to determine which of the three scenarios corresponded to the historical trend, assuming identical socio-environmental conditions. The SSP4-6.0 scenario was found to correspond to the historical trend.

Prediction of climate change impacts on availability of surface water resources in the semi-arid Tugwi Mukosi catchment of Zimbabwe

Climate change impact drivers includes increased rainfall variability, increased extreme events, and changes in the mean behaviour of hydro-meteorological variables such as air temperature, rainfall, and runoff. As such, this study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on surface water resources in a semi-arid Tugwi Mukosi catchment of Zimbabwe. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis, climate change downscaling and streamflow modelling were used as the primary methodology. The analysis of historical hydro-climatic data trends were performed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope method. Equally, observed daily rainfall was extended using bias-corrected CHIRPS satellite rainfall. Thus, a total of 9 Global Climate Models including (CCCma-CanESM2, Miroc Miroc 5, MOHCHadGEM2, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, and NCCNorESM1-M) on the Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI) Rosby Centre Atmosphere model version 4 (RCA4) RCM under the Representative Concentrated Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were extracted and analysed for the 2030s (2021–2050) and 2060s (2051–2080) period. The results show significant (p<0.05) decreasing rainfall trends at the analysed stations, as well as significant decrease in rainfall for the 2030s and the 2060s under GCMs CCCma-CanESM 2 model. The Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrological modeling System (HECHMS) (1997–1999) was calibrated and validated for the period 1981–2016. Calibration results on gauged catchment runoff and peak flows are satisfactory (Ngezi observed peak discharge and simulated peak discharge at 42.4 m3/s and 34.8 m3/s respectively, NSE 62.8%, Upper Muzhwi 30 m3/s and 19.5 m3/s, NSE 53.55%, Musogwezi 18.7 m3/,s and 16.5 m3/s, NSE 58.4%). The GCM-CanESM RCP 4.5 model showed a decrease in the runoff predicted of above 17% in both the 2030s and a significant decrease in the 2060s of 28.41% and 5% respectively. The combination of climate downscaling and water resources modelling is paramount to the management of water resources in a semi-arid area. Hydrological modelling and climate downscaling techniques gives important insights for water resources planning and development to support the water sector adaptation to climate change. The methodology applies to other data-scarce and semi-arid areas whose climate change impacts require further investigation.

Historical Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Shoreline Change at the Nile Delta Using RS Data and GIS with the DSAS Tool

Coastal areas are increasingly endangered by climate change and associated sea level rise, which could have serious consequences, such as shoreline erosion and coastal city submergence. The current study aims to conduct a historical trend analysis (HTA) and predict the shoreline changes of the Nile Delta coasts. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software, with the GIS environment, is used for monitoring the shoreline changes using a number of statistical methods (SCE, NSM, EPR, WLR and LRR). Satellite images from 1974 to 2022 were collected and geometrically corrected using supervised classification to detect the shoreline change of the Nile Delta. The GIS was used for detecting and monitoring changes in the shoreline, as well as forecasting future changes in the shoreline for the next 10 and 20 years (2033–2043). The critical sections of the Nile Delta were identified, and a time series analysis of shoreline changes was conducted. For each section, linear equations were established to predict probable changes in the shoreline. Between 1974 and 2022, the shoreline of the Nile Delta moved inland in different directions due to coastal erosion, and predictions indicate that this erosion will continue until both 2033 and 2043, particularly affecting the Rosetta and Damietta sections. The erosion rate ranged between 30–60 and 10–25 m/year at Rosetta and Damietta, respectively, but at Manzala, it ranged between 8–15 m/year. Continued erosion of the Nile Delta shoreline could have severe consequences that could affect the inhabitants, economy, buildings, roads, railways, and ports. These areas need an integrated coastal management strategy which incorporates increasing consciousness, urban development, and the implementation of rules and adaptation plans. The results of the current study and forecasting the shoreline change could help in protecting such areas.

Aging and Economic Preferences: Cumulative Meta-Analyses of Age Differences in Risk, Time, Social, and Effort Preferences.

Several theories predict changes in individuals' economic preferences across the life span. To test these theories and provide a historical overview of this literature, we conducted meta-analyses on age differences in risk, time, social, and effort preferences as assessed by behavioral measures. We conducted separate meta-analyses and cumulative meta-analyses on the association between age and risk, time, social, and effort preferences. We also conducted analyses of historical trends in sample sizes and citation patterns for each economic preference. The meta-analyses identified overall no significant effects of age for risk (r=-0.02, 95% CI [-0.06, 0.02], n=39,832) and effort preferences (r=0.24, 95% CI [-0.05, 0.52], n=571), but significant effects of age for time (r=-0.04, 95% CI [-0.07, -0.01], n=115,496) and social preferences (r=0.11, 95% CI [0.01, 0.21], n=2,997), suggesting increased patience and altruism with age, respectively. Equivalence tests, which compare these effects to practically important ones (i.e., r=|0.1|), however, suggest that all effects are of trivial significance. The analyses of temporal trends suggest that the magnitude of effects and sample sizes have not changed significantly over time, nor do they dramatically affect the extent that articles are cited. Overall, our results contrast with theories of aging that propose general age effects for risk and effort preferences, yet provide some but tenuous support for those suggesting age-related changes in time and social preferences. We discuss implications for theory development as well as future empirical work on economic preferences.

Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Multiple PSO-LSSVM under Electricity Market Environment

Affected by the development of the electricity market and many other factors, it is very difficult to obtain high-performance short-term load forecasting methods. The day-ahead load forecasting of the power grid is deeply studied by dividing 24 hours forecast outputs into several groups and optimizing them respectively. As a result, a new short-term load forecasting method is proposed by considering the load variation trend in different periods. First, through the historical load variation trend analysis, the 24 hours load forecasting output is divided into several sets. Then, the prediction algorithm combining multi-group particle swarm optimization and least squares support vector machine is proposed. Finally, the improved algorithm and the original particle swarm optimization, and the least squares support vector machine algorithm are used to predict the short-term load data of Jiangxi Province. The experiment results show that the improved algorithm can identify the load characteristics of a different time with high prediction accuracy, which has practical application value.

Undue Burdens: State Abortion Laws in the United States, 1994-2022.

State laws have influenced access to abortion in the 50 years since Roe v. Wade. The 2022 Dobbs decision returned questions about the legality of abortion to the states, which increased the importance of state laws for abortion access. The objective of this study is to illustrate trends in abortion-restrictive and abortion-supportive state laws using a unique longitudinal database of reproductive health laws across the United States from 1994 to 2022. This study offers a descriptive analysis of historical trends in state-level pre-viability abortion bans, abortion method bans, efforts to dissuade abortion, TRAP (targeted regulation of abortion providers) laws, other laws that restrict reproductive choice, and laws that expand abortion access and support reproductive health. Data sources include state statutes (from Nexis Uni) and secondary sources. The data reveal that pre-viability bans, including gestation-based bans and total bans, became significantly more prevalent over time. Other abortion-restrictive laws increased from 1994 to 2022, but states also passed a growing number of laws that support reproductive health. Increasing polarization into abortion-restrictive and abortion-supportive states characterized the 1994-2022 period. These trends have implications for maternal and infant health and for racial/ethnic and income disparities.

Effects of Grassland Afforestation on Water Yield in Basins of Uruguay: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical Trends Using Remote Sensing and Field Measurements

The afforestation of grasslands can alter different ecosystems’ functional processes; it affects the water balance due to the high water demand, caused by the increased productivity of the plantations, increase evapotranspiration, and reduces base flow of the basins. In Uruguay, there are two scenarios; the headwaters of the Tacuarembó River, where the area of plantations has increased for more than 30 years, and the headwaters of the Río Negro, where mainly grasslands are preserved without significant changes. This article evaluates the dynamics of grassland afforestation in the two basins, through the spatial and temporal analysis of historical trends with the use of remote sensors and considering the effect on water yield through field measurements, in the period 1984–2014. The spatial analysis shows an increase in the area of the forested basin, and the temporal analysis shows a reduction in the runoff coefficient due to the effect of the afforestation of pastures. Therefore, the movement from grassland to forest plantations reduces water flow considerably; this was identified through base flow measurements in the field with the integration of remote sensors. This allowed the observation of the relevant changes in the two basins studied, which may be related to climate change and human activities.

The evolution of recreational activities trends, impacts and future prospects

In our study, we embark on a comprehensive exploration of the evolving landscape of recreational activities, investigating the main trends that have shaped it, the profound impacts these activities exert on societal, economic, and health parameters, as well as the exciting prospects lying in the future. Throughout history, the character and function of recreational activities have been continually molded by a variety of driving factors. Key among these are advancements in technology, changes in demographic composition, shifts in societal attitudes and practices, and alterations in leisure time and work-life balance. We argue that the transformations seen in the realm of recreation have extensive ramifications, ranging from reshaping social relationships and community structures, impacting physical and mental health outcomes, to stimulating economic growth and innovation. Our work utilizes a multi-faceted methodological approach that includes historical review, trend analysis, predictive modeling, and scenario planning. We also delve into the role of emerging technologies, particularly focusing on how innovations like virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and digital gaming platforms are poised to redefine recreational norms and practices. The future of recreation, we propose, will be increasingly characterized by digital, immersive, and personalized experiences. The findings of our research have broad implications, providing critical insights for a range of stakeholders including policymakers, urban planners, entrepreneurs, and community leaders. As they look to make strategic decisions, develop policies, or design innovative solutions, understanding the trajectory of recreational activities will be invaluable. Finally, we identify several promising avenues for future research, with the goal of further expanding the boundaries of knowledge in this dynamic and influential field.

Вопросы семьи и детства в 1940–1960-е гг., и их отражение на страницах периодической печати Ростовской области

Introduction. The article is devoted to the study of individual measures of the Soviet government within the framework of the social policy of the USSR aimed at improving the living conditions of families, their material well-being and increasing the birth rate of the population in the Rostov region. Materials and methods. Special attention is paid to the materials of the periodical press of the Rostov region of 1940-1970, on the pages of which the problems of raising children and youth were reflected, moral themes were highlighted, negative images of irresponsible parents were criticized. The regional newspapers made it possible to conduct a comparative historical analysis of trends and contradictions between the policy of the CPSU and the government carried out “from above” and its perception in society, especially among women. Analysis. The article emphasizes the importance of publications in newspapers and magazines devoted to the topic of “single mothers” and their children who have a dash in the column “father” in the metric certificate. It is noted that, despite the seriousness of the problem that needs to be solved, declared by the society, it remained without attention from the authorities. Results. It is concluded that the periodical press was aimed at the broad strata of the population and promoted family values, formed the image of the ideal Soviet family. In addition, it is emphasized that the tone and vector of publications set the direction for the steady formation of a positive image of a Soviet woman, mother, worker in the reader.

“Lost hope?” Covid-19 Pandemic, its Implications, and Prospects for the Deep Integration of the East African Community

20 years after the re-establishment of the East African Community (EAC), the core regional countries of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi are still struggling to harmonize policy regarding trade and the free movement of labor with informal trade bearing the brunt. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic brought to light some of these challenges. While reactive measures were instituted to ensure that the import and export trade continued there was certainly a lot left to be desired concerning governance and social policy harmonization. This paper takes a historical trend analysis to assess the progress of the EAC integration in light of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify prospects that should guide regional integration in East Africa and Africa. Informed by the cracks brought to fore by COVID-19, we consider its implication on the resilience and cohesiveness of the EAC. This paper makes use of both primary and secondary information to make conclusions and recommendations.

Annual Excess Crude Mortality in Europe during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Historical Trends from 2000 to 2021

COVID-19 represents the greatest health crisis in recent human history. To date, it is still difficult to estimate its impact on mortality. This paper investigates the excess crude mortality in 27 European countries. The differences between the values observed in 2020 and 2021 with those predicted by a joinpoint regression model were evaluated. A multi-regression analysis was implemented to assess the relationship between health variables and excess mortality. Europe experienced a marked and surprising (S-value &gt; 52) increase in crude mortality during 2020 (Δ% = +10.0%, 95% CI: [2.5; 18.7]) and 2021 (Δ% = +12.1%, 95% CI: [4.3; 21.2]). The difference between average excesses of Eastern and Western countries was not surprising (S &lt; 2) and had little relevance (ΔE-W = −2.4, 95% CI: [−2; 7]) during 2020 but was more pronounced (S = 15, ΔE-W = +17.2, 95% CI: [11.0; 23.5]) during 2021. Excess crude mortality increased in 2021 (Δ% = +65%, 95% CI: [12.6; 118], S = 5.9). Evidence has been found for a surprising and marked negative linear relationship between COVID-19 vaccinations and excess mortality (“2021 excess mortality = A + BX4”, with “A = 58 ± 7, S = 28” and “B = −0.65 ± 0.10, S = 22, Radj2 = 0.65, 95% CI: [0.38; 0.82]). In light of the current literature, these findings provide solid evidence of the substantial role of COVID-19 in the unexpected and marked excess mortality recorded in Europe. COVID-19 vaccinations have appeared to be one of the main determinants for reducing mortality. Future research should explore these aspects in more detail.

Soft regulation of women on boards: Evidence from Canada

AbstractIn this study, I examine the effectiveness of a national board gender diversity disclosure requirement, which is, arguably, on the “soft” end of the continuum of boardroom interventions. Using a panel dataset of 1847 hand‐collected corporate disclosures from 2015 to 2018, I perform a post‐event, historical trend analysis of the efficacy of Canada's 2014 intervention. I find evidence of real progress in the 4 years following intervention against several benchmarks. Specifically, improvements in critical mass are documented, with the proportion of boards with three of more women reaching 18.8% in 2018. Tokenism remains an issue with very little change in the number of Canadian boards with only one woman. Further analyses using a sorting methodology and panel regression analysis reveal that progress toward board gender diversity is achieved by those with board gender targets, board seat renewal policies, and written board diversity policies. In addition, I find that larger companies achieve greater progress and that progress is clustered by industry.

River dynamics - a geospatial analysis of Jamuna (Brahmaputra) River in Bangladesh during 1973-2019 using Landsat satellite remote sensing data and GIS.

The present study is designed to illuminate the dynamics of the Jamuna River in Bangladesh for 46years, from 1973 to 2019. About 240km of the Jamuna River course was assessed using remote sensing and GIS. Landsat remote sensing imageries were processed, and bank lines were extracted and analysed using GIS. The main objective of the study was to understand the pattern of bed movement of the Jamuna River. The river dynamics were assessed based on bank erosion, accretion, bank line shifts, channel width, and river course and confluence shift. Area vulnerable to erosion was assessed using historical erosion rate and trend analysis. The result revealed that the river area increased by about 48% over 46years. The total eroded area was about 1038 km2, with 35.40% more erosion on the left bank than on the right. Due to higher erosion than deposition, the river widened. The average width of the river increased by about 56.40% during the period. The average rate of shifting was higher on the left bank than on the right, indicating the eastward movement of the river. Impact analysis showed that overall, a total of 822 km2 and 390 km2 of croplands and settlements were eroded during the period 1973-2019. The width of the confluence at the Padma River junction decreased by about 28%. The straight shift of the confluence was 9.27km towards the southeast. The vulnerable area assessment anticipated that there would be more erosion on the left bank than on the right, and that Kurigram, Tangail and Jamalpur are the districts most susceptible to future left bank erosion. And, the lower reach of the right bank of the Padma River is at high vulnerable to erosion at the confluence. The methods and analysis adopted in this study can be applied to any other braided river to monitor the dynamics of the river and to formulate an action plan to protect the river from erosion.

The Impact of Climate Change on Operational Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates

AbstractThe safety of high‐risk water infrastructure, such as dams and nuclear power plants, is often assessed by reference to their ability to accommodate floods derived from the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). However, a key shortcoming of traditional PMP estimates is the assumption of a stationary climate, with evidence indicating that key meteorological conditions related to the magnitudes of extreme storms, such as atmospheric moisture, are changing in a warming climate. Due to the pragmatic nature of PMP methods derived for design purposes, inferring potential changes in PMP estimates based solely on trends or projections of atmospheric variables can ignore PMP method complexities and constraints. Here we explore how different traditional PMP methods will respond to a potential increase in atmospheric moisture. We find that increases in persisting dewpoint will lead to increases in PMP estimates, and the nature of this impact depends on whether the moisture maximization step is based on local or transposed regional information. An historical trend analysis reveals annual maximum persisting dewpoint temperatures have increased continuously over Australia over the past 60 years, with further increases predicted over the coming decades for all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). PMP estimates across Australia are predicated to increase by an average value of 13% by 2100 based on the conservative SSP1‐2.6, compared to 33% for SSP5‐8.5. We conclude PMP methods will require regular updating to account for changing persisting dewpoints and likely progressive increases in PMP, and the ensuing flood estimates.