Abstract
Climatic conditions in Indonesia warm up indicated by the increasing of the average annual temperature by 0.3°C. This may cause higher water evaporation and increased rainfall intensity. Changes in rainfall patterns shift the start of the rainy season to be slower and end faster. These changes the dry season to become longer with shorter time intervals. In case of dam operation, dam manager needs to adapt the effects of climate change. This paper presents trend and future projection in Riam Kanan Catchment Area, Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan. Climate change historical trend analysis was carried out with the observation data used were rainfall and maximum temperature from BMKG climatology station, Banjarbaru Station, in the period 1983 - 2017. Future projection analysis was carried out by using RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario data for projecting rainfall and temperature in the period 2018 - 2100. The result shows that the rainfall, maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration trends in Banjarbaru from 1983 - 2017 were not too significant by +0.1 mm, -0.5°C, and +0.1 mm. While the projection of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario shows increase by +0.1 mm, +0.1°C, +0.1 mm and by +0.1 mm, +3.3°C, and +0.1 mm. Keywords: Climate Change, Trend, Rainfall, Temperature, Evapotranspiration, RCP 2.6, RCP8.5.
Highlights
Climate is an average weather condition over a long period of time
Changes in rainfall patterns cause the beginning of the rainy season to be slower and end faster, so the dry season becomes longer with shorter time
To analyse climate change trends and projected temperature and rainfall, research areas were used in the Riam Kanan Catchment Area in Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan
Summary
The climate on earth is strongly influenced by rainfall and air temperature. Climate conditions in the world are always changing, both according to space and time. Global climate change is caused, among others, by the increase in gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This has happened since the industrial revolution, where energy sources derived from coal, petroleum, and gas, as well as those that dispose of atmospheric gas waste, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) increase [1]. The air condition in Indonesia becomes hotter with the average annual air temperature has increased by approximately 0.3oC and caused high evaporation of water, so the atmosphere gets wet and the intensity of rainfall increases [3]. To analyse climate change trends and projected temperature and rainfall, research areas were used in the Riam Kanan Catchment Area in Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan
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