Abstract
The Chinese government is going to “push ahead the revolution of energy production and consumption, and establish a clean, low-carbon, secure, and efficient energy system”, which points out a direction for the energy industry in the new era. Using the analytic hierarchy process of the system analysis method, we constructed an indicator system of the modern Chinese energy system, and by determining the weighting of each indicator, we obtained the composite index of the modern Chinese energy system, as well as four sub-indexes of clean, low-carbon, secure, and efficient. Then, we investigated policy changes and energy development characteristics of important periods, and performed historical trend analysis. Finally, we forecasted the composite index and four sub-indexes by 2050, and proposed an energy development path and policy suggestions to achieve a modern Chinese energy system as soon as possible.
Highlights
IntroductionSustainable development has been one of the key guiding principles for the whole world
In the last decades, sustainable development has been one of the key guiding principles for the whole world
We established the framework of the modern Chinese energy system according to its connotation and the content of security, efficiency, low-carbon development, and cleanliness, obtained indicator weightings with AHP according to the scoring given by experts in various fields, and thereby, calculated the composite index and the sub-indexes of security, efficiency, low-carbon development, and cleanliness of the modern Chinese energy system
Summary
Sustainable development has been one of the key guiding principles for the whole world. A 2008 Management Science paper reviewing 15 years of progress in all areas of multi-criteria decision making showed that AHP publications have far outnumbered those in any other area [16] It has been extensively studied and refined in the index research field. By applying the AHP method to confirm indicator weights, we established a gradation indicator system for the modern Chinese energy system, including a composite index of the modern Chinese energy system and sub-indexes of low-carbon, cleanliness, efficiency, and security. To the best of our knowledge, the modern Chinese energy index system has never been documented in the previous literature This index can more comprehensively reflect existing energy in the development of a variety of questions that need to be improved, and promote the construction of a modern Chinese energy system with more guiding significance
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