Abstract
The Coffee culture is the most important agricultural activity when it comes to social and economic aspects in Espírito Santo. The state is Brazil’s second largest producer including arabica and conilon coffee, with a production of 13.7 million bags, which represents 22.3% of the Bazillian coffee. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk in arabica coffee cultivation comparing manual and semi-mechanized harvesting to different productivity levels. For the feasibility analysis, the techniques of Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return were used and the sensitivity analysis was used for the risk assessment. The risk statistics evaluated by the standard deviation and coefficient of variation indicate that it is less risky to produce at the productivity levels of 50 bags per hectare in manual harvesting and over 40 bags per hectare in semi-mechanized harvesting. Keywords: Coffee. Risk. Investment. Modernization.
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