Workplace Closures Research Articles

Coronavirus and Social Distancing: Do Non-Pharmaceutical-Interventions Work (at Least) in the Short Run?

Using detailed daily information covering 100 countries and an event-study approach, we estimate the short run effects of implementing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) on the spread of the COVID-19 virus at the early stages of the pandemic. We study the impact of two NPIs – stay-at-home requirements and workplace closures – on three outcomes: daily residential and workplace mobility; the daily growth rate of cases; and the daily growth rate of fatalities. Acknowledging that we observe a mobility reduction in countries before they implemented NPIs, we find that immediately after NPIs were implemented, mobility declined by 0.2 standard deviation (SD), and two weeks afterwards it was down by 0.7 SDs. 25 days after the NPIs were implemented, the daily growth rate of cases and deaths was lower by 10% and 8.4% respectively. Our results reveal that between 53 and 72 percent of the reduction of the daily growth rate of cases and deaths associated with a reduction of mobility is caused by NPIs.

Coronavirus and Social Distancing: Do Non-Pharmaceutical-Interventions Work (at Least) in the Short Run?

Using detailed daily information covering 100 countries and an event-study approach, we estimate the short run effects of implementing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) on the spread of the COVID-19 virus at the early stages of the pandemic. We study the impact of two NPIs -stay-at-home requirements and workplace closures- on three outcomes: daily residential and workplace mobility; the daily growth rate of cases; and the daily growth rate of fatalities. Acknowledging that we observe a mobility reduction in countries before they implemented NPIs, we find that immediately after NPIs were implemented, mobility declined by 0.2 standard deviation (SD), and two weeks afterwards it was down by 0.7 SDs. 25 days after the NPIs were implemented, the daily growth rate of cases and deaths was lower by 10% and 8.4% respectively. Our results reveal that between 53 and 72 percent of the reduction of the daily growth rate of cases and deaths associated with a reduction of mobility is caused by NPIs.

Resisting Lockdown: The Influence of COVID-19 Restrictions on Social Unrest

Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented social and political challenges. Mitigation strategies often disrupt the daily lives of citizens and constrain rights and privileges. Policies intended to contain disease spread have provoked resentment, resistance, and backlash. We examine the extent to which specific COVID-19 policy responses influence the frequency of civil unrest. Combining insights from both grievance and opportunity models of dissent, we contend that pandemic response policies are most likely to lead to unrest when the grievances and opportunities created by disease mitigation strategies reinforce each other. We test our arguments with nuanced information on specific pandemic mitigation policies, combined with geo-located events data on COVID-19-related social unrest activities. We find that policies such as workplace and school closures, which induce intense grievances and reduce the opportunity cost of engaging in collective mobilization, are associated with increases in dissent activities. Policies that restrict opportunities for mobilization, such as restrictions on public transportation, reduce the number of dissent activities. Notably, economic support policies attenuate the effects of workplace closures on dissent. Our results illustrate the varying effects of pandemic mitigation policies on unrest depending on how the grievances they inspire relate to the opportunity they create.

Elections and Policies: The Case of COVID Responses

This paper analyzes the impact of foreseen political elections on the non-economic policies aimed at reducing the spread of infection and implemented all over the world during the pandemic of 2020. The policies analyzed include schools closures, stay-at-home requirements, workplace closures, canceling of public events, and restrictions on gatherings. The analysis suggests that schools closures and stay-at-home requirements were loosen before the elections in democratic countries. There is no evidence of political cycles found in autocracies.

Economic and Financial Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Review and Analysis

One year ago, both the World Health Organization and the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services declared the outbreak of COVID-19 to be a public health emergency. Within weeks, confirmed cases were announced in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Responses in the form of lockdowns, travel restrictions, widespread cancellation of events, facility and workplace closures, and agricultural disruption resulted in vast social and economic disruption. These disruptions led to stress and volatility in the financial markets and the largest global recession since the Great Depression. While regulatory measures instituted since the Great Financial Crisis have increased resiliency in the core of the financial system, the COVID-19 shocks nevertheless revealed systemic financial problems. The crisis also saw unprecedented intervention by central banks in the form of credit and liquidity facilities. Combined with additional fiscal and monetary policy responses, as well as regulatory intervention, the government responses reached truly unprecedented levels.This paper provides a review and framework for policymakers, regulators and educators to evaluate the U.S. financial and economic policy responses undertaken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, it examines several critical areas of financial stability concern that were brought to light during the pandemic: stresses in central clearing counterparties, pre-emptive redemption of money market fund shares by investors in response to broaching of weekly liquid asset levels, and extreme dysfunction in credit and U.S. Treasury markets. Finally, this paper touches on the critical equity and financial inclusion impacts of COVID-19, as an area that deserves urgent attention and the full force of economic and financial policy.

The Effects of Covid-19 on Employment, Labour Markets and Gender Equality in Central America

This study considers the economic impact of Covid-19 on enterprises in four Central American countries – El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. At the time of the analysis neither the pandemic nor its economic consequences had fully run their course. It is not, therefore, a definitive analysis but it is important to try to draw important lessons as soon as possible. The main focus of the study was the initial impact on labour markets. The analysis was based on World Bank enterprise surveys undertaken before the outbreak of Covid-19 and follow-up surveys on the effects of the pandemic, also undertaken by the World Bank. These were combined with data on government containment measures and on morbidity and mortality rates. The use of enterprise data to analyse labour market issues has some limitations but also many strengths. The data is useful for analysing the consequences for gender equality in employment. Since the demand for labour is a derived demand firm level data provides a clear link to labour market effects. The pandemic has caused a significant loss in sales for many firms, This creates a loss of liquidity which, in turn, has caused some firms to reduce employment, working hours and wages. Government containment measures necessary to save lives such as temporary workplace closures have added to the burden for both firms and employees. The study starts by using the surveys to identify the important stylised facts. Although some issues are already well documented anecdotally through media reports this provides a more evidence based approach. It also helps identify several issues, such as the impact on gender equality which have received less journalistic attention. The study is further supported by a regression analysis (OLS and SURE) of several key outcomes (changes in sales, employment, the share of females in employment and firm expectations of survival). A limitation of such analysis with any enterprise level is heterogeneity and, in consequence, a risk of sample selection bias. To provide robustness checks we use a matching approach. The results suggest that a significant proportion of surviving firms are vulnerable to permanent closure. The ability of firms to retain labour depends on sales which are affected by both the pandemic itself and the government containment measures. Only a small proportion of firms have received government support and there is evidence that it could help both firm survival and the retention of labour. There is some doubt whether the four countries have the institutional capacity to provide effective support. If such doubts prove well founded then support may need to be externally driven.

Hotline Number to Reach and Offer Agricultural Information to Plain Anabaptists during the COVID-19 Workplace Closures

The Penn State Extension Animal Systems Team developed a toll-free hotline phone number to convey short educational messages to maintain contact and outreach to Pennsylvania’s animal producing Amish, Mennonite, and other plain Anabaptist populations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Penn State Extension’s programming went largely online via webinars, online courses, and emails. This change in programming excluded a large sector of Pennsylvania farmers who do not use or have access to the internet and, as such, were liable to miss important best management practice reviews and timely updates in animal agriculture. The Animal Systems Hotline offered callers the choice to listen to pre-recorded messages from dairy, equine, livestock, and poultry Extensions. Across the Animal Systems Team, during a span of approximately 22 weeks, a total of 111 messages were uploaded to the Hotline, with a total of 2,201 people calling in to the Hotline. Topics varied across the Extensions from the basics of animal husbandry and health to pasture and nutrition management. Since the development of the Hotline, Extension educators have received calls from plain producers requesting more information about the topics covered on the Hotline messages. While there were challenges with the system used for the Hotline and data collection, the broad reach and numerous callers indicates that the Hotline was a successful method of connecting with plain audiences. [Abstract by authors.]

Reduction of COVID-19 Incidence and Nonpharmacologic Interventions: Analysis Using a US County-Level Policy Data Set.

BackgroundWorldwide, nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs) have been the main tool used to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. This includes social distancing measures (closing businesses, closing schools, and quarantining symptomatic persons) and contact tracing (tracking and following exposed individuals). While preliminary research across the globe has shown these policies to be effective, there is currently a lack of information on the effectiveness of NPIs in the United States.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to create a granular NPI data set at the county level and then analyze the relationship between NPI policies and changes in reported COVID-19 cases.MethodsUsing a standardized crowdsourcing methodology, we collected time-series data on 7 key NPIs for 1320 US counties.ResultsThis open-source data set is the largest and most comprehensive collection of county NPI policy data and meets the need for higher-resolution COVID-19 policy data. Our analysis revealed a wide variation in county-level policies both within and among states (P<.001). We identified a correlation between workplace closures and lower growth rates of COVID-19 cases (P=.004). We found weak correlations between shelter-in-place enforcement and measures of Democratic local voter proportion (R=0.21) and elected leadership (R=0.22).ConclusionsThis study is the first large-scale NPI analysis at the county level demonstrating a correlation between NPIs and decreased rates of COVID-19. Future work using this data set will explore the relationship between county-level policies and COVID-19 transmission to optimize real-time policy formulation.

COVID-19, government policy responses, and stock market liquidity around the world: A note

Unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions targeted to curb the spread of COVID-19 exerted a dramatic impact on the global economy and financial markets. This study is the first attempt to investigate the influence of these government policy responses on global stock market liquidity. To this end, we examine daily data from 49 countries for the period January-April 2020. We demonstrate that the impact of the interventions is limited in scale and scope. Workplace and school closures deteriorate liquidity in emerging markets, while information campaigns on the novel coronavirus facilitate trading activity.

Long but Unreal Lockdowns in Latin America. Comment on Chen, Y.T.; Yen, Y.F.; Yu, S.H.; Su, E.C. An Examination on the Transmission of COVID-19 and the Effect of Response Strategies: A Comparative Analysis. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, E5687.

Lockdowns have been important elements of epidemic control over time. During the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been implemented in many countries, at very different times, and accompanied by school or workplace closures, restrictions on mass gatherings, and public transport closure in different combinations. Recent evidence published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health suggests that SARS-CoV-19 transmission is diminished when strict lockdowns, contact tracing, and good public cooperation are implemented. However, in Latin America, not all lockdowns are real, and rapid increases in a few weeks in the number of infected, hospitalized, and deceased populations have been observed. In these cases, the effect of lockdowns is weakening of democracy.

The Role of Administrative and Secondary Data in Estimating the Costs and Effects of School and Workplace Closures due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

As a part of mitigation strategies during a COVID-19 pandemic, the WHO currently recommends social distancing measures through school closures (SC) and work closures (WC) to control the infection spread and reduce the illness attack rate. Focusing on the use of administrative and secondary data, this study aimed to estimate the costs and effects of alternative strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia, by comparing the baseline (no intervention) with SC + WC for 2, 4, and 8 weeks as respective scenarios. A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model accounting for the spread of infection during the latent period was applied by taking into account a 1-year time horizon. To estimate the total pandemic cost of all scenarios, we took into account the cost of healthcare, SC, and productivity loss due to WC and illness. Next to costs, averted deaths were considered as the effect measure. In comparison with the baseline, the result showed that total savings in scenarios of SC + WC for 2, 4, and 8 weeks would be approximately $24 billion, $25 billion, and $34 billion, respectively. In addition, increasing the duration of SC and WC would increase the number of averted deaths. Scenarios of SC + WC for 2, 4, and 8 weeks would result in approximately 159,075, 173,963, and 250,842 averted deaths, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the wage per day, infectious period, basic reproduction number, incubation period, and case fatality rate were found to be the most influential parameters affecting the savings and number of averted deaths. It can be concluded that all the mitigation scenarios were considered to be cost-saving, and increasing the duration of SC and WC would increase both the savings and the number of averted deaths.

The Distributional Consequences of Social Distancing on Poverty and Labour Income Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper estimates the potential distributional consequences of the first phase of the COVID-19 lockdowns on poverty and labour income inequality in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. We estimate the share of individuals that are potentially able to remain active under the lockdown by taking into account individuals' teleworking capacity but also whether their occupation is affected by legal workplace closures or mobility restrictions. Furthermore, we compare the shares under the formal (de jure) lockdown policies assuming perfect compliance with the shares under de facto lockdowns where there is some degree of non-compliance. We then estimate individuals' potential labour income losses and examine changes in poverty and labour income inequality. We find an increase in poverty and labour income inequality in most of the LAC countries due to social distancing; however, the observed changes are lower under de facto lockdowns, revealing the potential role of non-compliance as a coping strategy during the lockdowns. Social distancing measures have led to an increase in inequality both between and within countries. Lastly, we show that most of the dispersion in the labour income loss across countries is explained by the sectoral/occupational employment structure of the economies.

Using volunteered geographic information to assess mobility in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: a\xa0cross-city time series analysis of 41 cities in 22 countries from March 2nd to 26th 2020

ObjectivesRestricting mobility is a central aim for lowering contact rates and preventing COVID-19 transmission. Yet the impact on mobility of different non-pharmaceutical countermeasures in the earlier stages of the pandemic is not well-understood.DesignTrends were evaluated using Citymapper’s mobility index covering 2nd to 26th March 2020, expressed as percentages of typical usage periods from 0% as the lowest and 100% as normal. China and India were not covered. Multivariate fixed effects models were used to estimate the association of policies restricting movement on mobility before and after their introduction. Policy restrictions were assessed using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index as well as measures coding the timing and degree of school and workplace closures, transport restrictions, and cancellation of mass gatherings.Setting41 cities worldwide.Main outcome measuresCitymapper’s mobility index.ResultsMobility declined in all major cities throughout March. Larger declines were seen in European than Asian cities. The COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index was strongly associated with declines in mobility (r = − 0.75, p < 0.001). After adjusting for time-trends, we observed that implementing non-pharmaceutical countermeasures was associated with a decline of mobility of 10.0% for school closures (95% CI: 4.36 to 15.7%), 15.0% for workplace closures (95% CI: 10.2 to 19.8%), 7.09% for cancelling public events (95% CI: 1.98 to 12.2%), 18.0% for closing public transport (95% CI: 6.74 to 29.2%), 13.3% for restricting internal movements (95% CI: 8.85 to 17.8%) and 5.30% for international travel controls (95% CI: 1.69 to 8.90). In contrast, as expected, there was no association between population mobility changes and fiscal or monetary measures or emergency healthcare investment.ConclusionsUnderstanding the effect of public policy on mobility in the early stages is crucial to slowing and reducing COVID-19 transmission. By using Citymapper’s mobility index, this work provides the first evidence about trends in mobility and the impacts of different policy interventions, suggesting that closure of public transport, workplaces and schools are particularly impactful.

Consequences of parental job loss on the family environment and on human capital formation-Evidence from workplace closures

We study the consequences of mothers’ and fathers’ job loss for parents, families, and children. Rich Swedish administrative data allow us to identify workplace closures and account for non-random selection of displaced workers. Our main conclusion is that effects on children are limited, although parents and families are negatively affected in terms of parental health, labour market outcomes and separations. We find no effects of parental job loss on childhood health. While educational and early adult outcomes are unaffected by paternal job loss, we find small negative effects of maternal job loss, which contradicts some of the earlier evidence. Limited effects on family disposable income suggest that welfare institutions successfully insure families, in particular, those with low income, thus protecting the family environment. A dual earner norm and strong incentives for female labour supply may contribute to the absence of positive effects of maternal job loss.

Public Perceptions and Attitudes Toward COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Across Six Countries: A Topic Modeling Analysis of Twitter Data.

BackgroundNonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (such as wearing masks and social distancing) have been implemented by governments around the world to slow the spread of COVID-19. To promote public adherence to these regimes, governments need to understand the public perceptions and attitudes toward NPI regimes and the factors that influence them. Twitter data offer a means to capture these insights.ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to identify tweets about COVID-19 NPIs in six countries and compare the trends in public perceptions and attitudes toward NPIs across these countries. The aim is to identify factors that influenced public perceptions and attitudes about NPI regimes during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe analyzed 777,869 English language tweets about COVID-19 NPIs in six countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The relationship between tweet frequencies and case numbers was assessed using a Pearson correlation analysis. Topic modeling was used to isolate tweets about NPIs. A comparative analysis of NPIs between countries was conducted.ResultsThe proportion of NPI-related topics, relative to all topics, varied between countries. The New Zealand data set displayed the greatest attention to NPIs, and the US data set showed the lowest. The relationship between tweet frequencies and case numbers was statistically significant only for Australia (r=0.837, P<.001) and New Zealand (r=0.747, P<.001). Topic modeling produced 131 topics related to one of 22 NPIs, grouped into seven NPI categories: Personal Protection (n=15), Social Distancing (n=9), Testing and Tracing (n=10), Gathering Restrictions (n=18), Lockdown (n=42), Travel Restrictions (n=14), and Workplace Closures (n=23). While less restrictive NPIs gained widespread support, more restrictive NPIs were perceived differently across countries. Four characteristics of these regimes were seen to influence public adherence to NPIs: timeliness of implementation, NPI campaign strategies, inconsistent information, and enforcement strategies.ConclusionsTwitter offers a means to obtain timely feedback about the public response to COVID-19 NPI regimes. Insights gained from this analysis can support government decision making, implementation, and communication strategies about NPI regimes, as well as encourage further discussion about the management of NPI programs for global health events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Agent-based modelling for SARS-CoV-2 epidemic prediction and intervention assessment: A methodological appraisal.

BackgroundOur purpose is to assess epidemiological agent‐based models—or ABMs—of the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic methodologically. The rapid spread of the outbreak requires fast‐paced decision‐making regarding mitigation measures. However, the evidence for the efficacy of non‐pharmaceutical interventions such as imposed social distancing and school or workplace closures is scarce: few observational studies use quasi‐experimental research designs, and conducting randomized controlled trials seems infeasible. Additionally, evidence from the previous coronavirus outbreaks of SARS and MERS lacks external validity, given the significant differences in contagiousness of those pathogens relative to SARS‐CoV‐2. To address the pressing policy questions that have emerged as a result of COVID‐19, epidemiologists have produced numerous models that range from simple compartmental models to highly advanced agent‐based models. These models have been criticized for involving simplifications and lacking empirical support for their assumptions.MethodsTo address these voices and methodologically appraise epidemiological ABMs, we consider AceMod (the model of the COVID‐19 epidemic in Australia) as a case study of the modelling practice.ResultsOur example shows that, although epidemiological ABMs involve simplifications of various sorts, the key characteristics of social interactions and the spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 are represented sufficiently accurately. This is the case because these modellers treat empirical results as inputs for constructing modelling assumptions and rules that the agents follow; and they use calibration to assert the adequacy to benchmark variables.ConclusionsGiven this, we claim that the best epidemiological ABMs are models of actual mechanisms and deliver both mechanistic and difference‐making evidence. Consequently, they may also adequately describe the effects of possible interventions. Finally, we discuss the limitations of ABMs and put forward policy recommendations.

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures

Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity—equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries

ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally.DesignNatural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis.Setting149 countries or regions,...

Intersecting household-level health and socio-economic vulnerabilities and the COVID-19 crisis: An analysis from the UK.

The effects of COVID-19 are likely to be socially stratified. Disease control measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic mean that people spend much more time in their immediate households, due to lockdowns, the need to self-isolate, and school and workplace closures. This has elevated the importance of certain household–level characteristics for individuals’ current and future wellbeing. The multi-dimensional poverty and health inequalities literature suggests that poor health and socio-economic conditions cluster in the general population, which may exacerbate societal inequalities over time. This study investigates how COVID-19-related health- and socio-economic vulnerabilities co-occur at the household level, and how they are distributed across household types and geographical areas in the United Kingdom. Using a nationally representative cross-sectional study of UK households and individuals and applying principal components analysis, we derived summary measures representing different dimensions of household vulnerabilities critical during the COVID-19 epidemic: health, employment, housing, financial and digital. Our analysis highlights four key findings. First, although COVID-19-related health risks are concentrated in retirement-age households, a substantial proportion of working-age households also face these risks. Second, different types of households exhibit different vulnerabilities, with working-age households more likely to face financial and housing precarities, and retirement-age households health and digital vulnerabilities. Third, there are area-level differences in the distribution of household-level vulnerabilities across England and the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Fourth, in many households, different dimensions of vulnerabilities intersect; this is especially prevalent among working-age households. The findings imply that the short- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to significantly vary by household type. Policy measures that aim to mitigate the health and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic should consider how vulnerabilities cluster and interact with one another both within individuals and different household types, and how these may exacerbate already existing inequalities.

Setting up and relaxation of public health social and physical distancing measures for COVID-19: a rapid review.

IntroductionPhysical and social distancing refer to purposeful reduction of close contact between people, such as school closures and workplace closures. These measures are useful in containing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but have negative effects on social structures and the economy. There is thus a need for optimal timing on when to setup and relax them. We examined the evidence regarding the initiation and lifting of these public health measures.MethodsWe searched for eligible studies in PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar in April 2020, and conducted a qualitative synthesis of the study findings.ResultsWe searched for eligible studies in PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar in April 2020, and conducted a qualitative synthesis of the study findings. The electronic searches yielded 2503 records, from which we included 10 observational and mathematical modeling studies. These studies used data from one or multiple countries on COVID-19 (nine studies) or another viral epidemic such as Zika (one study). Most of the studies show the importance of using physical and social distancing at the start of the epidemic and utilising a staggered approach when easing the restrictions, while scaling up testing. The lifting of lockdown measures should be accompanied by continued use of personal protective equipment, the limiting of workdays, and wide-scale testing.ConclusionThis review highlights the importance of timeous action when faced with an epidemic, let alone a pandemic. The setting up and relaxation of public measures are time sensitive and data-driven actions. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine, these findings are relevant for the sustainable containment of COVID-19 in African countries.