Abstract

BackgroundWorldwide, nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs) have been the main tool used to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. This includes social distancing measures (closing businesses, closing schools, and quarantining symptomatic persons) and contact tracing (tracking and following exposed individuals). While preliminary research across the globe has shown these policies to be effective, there is currently a lack of information on the effectiveness of NPIs in the United States.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to create a granular NPI data set at the county level and then analyze the relationship between NPI policies and changes in reported COVID-19 cases.MethodsUsing a standardized crowdsourcing methodology, we collected time-series data on 7 key NPIs for 1320 US counties.ResultsThis open-source data set is the largest and most comprehensive collection of county NPI policy data and meets the need for higher-resolution COVID-19 policy data. Our analysis revealed a wide variation in county-level policies both within and among states (P<.001). We identified a correlation between workplace closures and lower growth rates of COVID-19 cases (P=.004). We found weak correlations between shelter-in-place enforcement and measures of Democratic local voter proportion (R=0.21) and elected leadership (R=0.22).ConclusionsThis study is the first large-scale NPI analysis at the county level demonstrating a correlation between NPIs and decreased rates of COVID-19. Future work using this data set will explore the relationship between county-level policies and COVID-19 transmission to optimize real-time policy formulation.

Highlights

  • In the absence of effective vaccines or therapeutics targeting SARS-CoV-2, nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs) have been the only effective measures for containing the current COVID-19 pandemic [1,2,3,4]

  • This study is the first large-scale NPI analysis at the county level demonstrating a correlation between NPIs and decreased rates of COVID-19

  • The full county NPI data set, hereon referred to as the “all policies” data set, yielded 2704 observations of NPI policies described in Table 1 in 1320 counties from all 50 states in the United States

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Summary

Introduction

In the absence of effective vaccines or therapeutics targeting SARS-CoV-2, nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs) have been the only effective measures for containing the current COVID-19 pandemic [1,2,3,4]. Examples of social distancing measures include closing businesses, closing schools, and quarantining symptomatic persons [6]. While China was initially slow to implement NPIs, models have shown that China’s social distancing measures were sufficient to control COVID-19 [1,2]. The United States has implemented NPIs more variably, which may be related to the higher rates of transmission [8]. Nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs) have been the main tool used to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. This includes social distancing measures (closing businesses, closing schools, and quarantining symptomatic persons) and contact tracing (tracking and following exposed individuals). While preliminary research across the globe has shown these policies to be effective, there is currently a lack of information on the effectiveness of NPIs in the United States

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