Workplace Closures Research Articles

Resisting Lockdown: The Influence of COVID-19 Restrictions on Social Unrest

Abstract Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented social and political challenges. Mitigation strategies often disrupt the daily lives of citizens and constrain rights and privileges. Policies intended to contain disease spread have provoked resentment, resistance, and backlash. We examine the extent to which specific COVID-19 policy responses influence the frequency of civil unrest. Combining insights from both grievance and opportunity models of dissent, we contend that pandemic-response policies are most likely to lead to unrest when the grievances and opportunities created by disease-mitigation strategies reinforce each other. We test our arguments with nuanced information on specific pandemic-mitigation policies, combined with geolocated events data on COVID-19-related social unrest activities. We find that policies such as workplace and school closures, which induce intense grievances and reduce the opportunity cost of engaging in collective mobilization, are associated with increases in dissent activities. Policies that restrict opportunities for mobilization, such as restrictions on public transportation, reduce the number of dissent activities. Notably, economic support policies attenuate the effects of workplace closures on dissent. Our results illustrate the varying effects of pandemic-mitigation policies on unrest depending on how the grievances they inspire relate to the opportunity they create.

Has Covid-19 increased gender inequalities in professional advancement? Cross-country evidence on productivity differences between male and female software developers

Objective: This article analyzed gender differences in professional advancement following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic based on data from open-source software developers in 37 countries.
 Background: Men and women may have been affected differently from the social distancing measures implemented to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. Given that men and women tend to work in different jobs and that they have been unequally involved in childcare duties, school and workplace closings may have impacted men’s and women’s professional lives unequally.
 Method: We analyzed original data from the world’s largest social coding community, GitHub. We first estimated a Holt-Winters forecast model to compare the predicted and the observed average weekly productivity of a random sample of male and female developers (N=177,480) during the first lockdown period in 2020. To explain the cross-country variation in the gendered effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on software developers’ productivity, we estimated two-way fixed effects models with different lockdown measures as predictors – school and workplace closures, in particular.
 Results: In most countries, both male and female developers were, on average, more productive than predicted, and productivity increased for both genders with increasing lockdown stringency. When examining the effects of the most relevant types of lockdown measures separately, we found that stay-at-home restrictions increased both men’s and women’s productivity and that workplace closures also increased the number of weekly contributions on average – but for women, only when schools were open.
 Conclusion: Having found gender differences in the effect of workplace closures contingent on school and daycare closures within a population that is relatively young and unlikely to have children (software developers), we conclude that the Covid-19 pandemic may indeed have contributed to increased gender inequalities in professional advancement.

Impacts of social distancing measures on global supply chain configuration

World Health Organisation has advised governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19 by introducing stringent social distancing measures (SDMs) in five levels, ranging from pandemic surveillance, stay-at-home recommendations, workplace closures, to national and international travel restrictions. These measures inevitably disrupt global business environment and supply chain configuration. Existing literature does not comprehensively analyze the five-level SDMs’ impacts on firms and supply chains. Thus, we established a mixed-integer programming model to integrate environment changes in lead time and cost for transportation and processing, market size, and the number of countries (NoC) imposing the SDMs. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate propagation impacts on global supply chains when the SDMs are imposed on firms in different echelons of supply chains. Results show that (i) supply chain losses and disruptions primarily depend on the NoC, followed by restricted transportation, market size, and processing limitations. (ii) When the SDMs, especially restrictions on transportation, are implemented in downstream echelons, the propagation impacts on supply chains and firms become more significant. (iii) Compared with elastic-demand supply chains, the fixed-demand one, e.g. food supply chain, suffers more significantly with the stringent SDMs and high holding costs. Finally, managerial implications are discussed from supply chains, firms, and policymakers.

How have COVID-19 stringency measures changed scholarly activity?

Government restrictions to the movement of people due to the COVID‐19 pandemic have had a wide range of effects on scientific activity. Here, we show that during the pandemic there has been a reduction in the number of registered non‐COVID‐19 clinical trials. Furthermore, using the Oxford COVID‐19 Government Response Tracker Stringency Index (SI) as an indicator of COVID‐19–related workplace adjustment (e.g., restrictions on gatherings, workplace closures, and stay‐at‐home orders), we demonstrate that this drop in clinical trial registration has been greater in countries with a higher SI. This could have significant consequences for the discovery of treatments that are required to reduce the global burden of disease.

Human Close Contact Behavior-Based Interventions for COVID-19 Transmission

COVID-19 has threatened human lives. Countries have implemented various interventions such as vaccination, mask-wearing, body temperature screening, and isolation. However, the effectiveness of single and combined interventions has not yet been accurately analyzed. In this study, an improved SEIR model considering both real human indoor close contact behaviors and susceptibility to COVID-19 was established. Taking Hong Kong as an example, a quantitative assessment of the relationship between the efficiency of single and combined interventions and implementation time and intensity was carried out. The results showed that the infection risk (one-hour close contact with an infected person) of COVID-19 of students, workers, and non-workers/non-students was 3.1%, 8.7%, and 13.6%, respectively. Workplace closures were more effective among built environment interventions. If mask-wearing was mandatorily required in schools, workplaces, supermarkets, shopping centers, and public transport, COVID-19 could not be totally restricted. Workers should be prioritized for vaccination, followed by non-workers/non-students and students. Among all interventions, reducing close contact rate and increasing vaccination rate were better interventions. There was no COVID-19 outbreak (basic reproduction number R0 = 1) if the close contact reduction rate was 59.9% or the vaccination rate reached 89.5%. The results may provide scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control.

Depressive symptoms in higher education students during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of containment measures.

BackgroundStudents are a vulnerable group for the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly their mental health. This paper examined the cross-national variation in students’ depressive symptoms and whether this can be related to the various protective measures implemented in response to the initial stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.MethodsStudent data stem from the COVID-19 International Student Well-being Study, covering 26 countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Country-level data on government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic were retrieved from the Oxford COVID-19 Tracker. Multilevel analyses were performed to estimate the impact of the containment and economic support measures on students’ depressive symptoms (n = 78 312).ResultsSchool and workplace closures, and stay-at-home restrictions were positively related to students’ depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic, while none of the economic support measures significantly related to depressive symptoms. Countries’ scores on the index of these containment measures explained 1.5% of the cross-national variation in students’ depressive symptoms (5.3%). This containment index’s effect was stable, even when controlling for the economic support index, students’ characteristics, and countries’ epidemiological context and economic conditions.ConclusionsOur findings raise concerns about the potential adverse effects of existing containment measures (especially the closure of schools and workplaces and stay-at-home restrictions) on students’ mental health.

The association between COVID-19 policy responses and mental well-being: Evidence from 28 European countries

This study assesses how the implementation and lifting of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), deployed by most governments, to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, were associated with individuals’ mental well-being (MWB) across 28 European countries. This is done both for the general population and across key-groups. We analyze longitudinal data for 15,147 respondents from three waves of the Eurofound-“Living, Working and COVID-19” survey, covering the period April 2020–March 2021. MWB is measured by the WHO-5 index. Our evidence suggests that restriction on international travel, private gatherings, and contact tracing (workplace closures) were negatively (positively) associated with MWB by about, respectively, −0.63 [95% CI: −0.79 to −0.47], −0.24 [95% CI: −0.38 to −0.10], and −0.22 [95% CI: −0.36 to −0.08] (0.29 [95% CI: 0.11 to 0.48]) points. These results correspond to −3.9%, −1.5%, and −1.4% (+1.8%) changes compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, these findings mask important group-differences. Women compared to men fared worse under stay-at-home requirements, internal movement restrictions, private gatherings restrictions, public events cancellation, school closures, and workplace closures. Those residing with children below 12, compared to those who do not, fared worse under public events cancellation, school closures and workplace closures. Conversely, those living with children 12–17, compared to those who do not, fared better under internal movement restrictions and public events cancelling. Western-Europeans vis-à-vis Eastern-Europeans fared better under NPIs limiting their mobility and easing their debts, whereas they fared worse under health-related NPIs. This study provides timely evidence of the rise in inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic and offers strategies for mitigating them.

Association of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to Reduce the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 With Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms: A Multi-National Study of 43 Countries.

Objectives: To examine the association of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with anxiety and depressive symptoms among adults and determine if these associations varied by gender and age. Methods: We combined survey data from 16,177,184 adults from 43 countries who participated in the daily COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey via Facebook with time-varying NPI data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker between 24 April 2020 and 20 December 2020. Using logistic regression models, we examined the association of [1] overall NPI stringency and [2] seven individual NPIs (school closures, workplace closures, cancellation of public events, restrictions on the size of gatherings, stay-at-home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel controls) with anxiety and depressive symptoms. Results: More stringent implementation of NPIs was associated with a higher odds of anxiety and depressive symptoms, albeit with very small effect sizes. Individual NPIs had heterogeneous associations with anxiety and depressive symptoms by gender and age. Conclusion: Governments worldwide should be prepared to address the possible mental health consequences of stringent NPI implementation with both universal and targeted interventions for vulnerable groups.

Off the COVID-19 Epicentre: The Impact of Quarantine Controls on Employment, Education and Health in China's Rural Communities

AbstractThis study documents the COVID-19 disease-control measures enacted in rural China and examines the economic and social impacts of these measures. We conducted two rounds of surveys with 726 randomly selected village informants across seven provinces. Strict disease-control measures have been universally enforced and appear to have been successful in limiting disease transmission in rural communities. The infection rate in our sample was 0.001 per cent, a rate that is near the national average outside of Hubei province. None of the villages reported any COVID-19-related deaths. For a full month during the quarantine, the rate of employment of rural workers was essentially zero. Even after the quarantine measures were lifted, nearly 70 per cent of the villagers still were unable to work owing to workplace closures. Although action has been taken to mitigate the potential negative effects, these disease-control measures might have accelerated the inequality between rural and urban households in China.

Early Care and Education Workers' Experience and Stress during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Early care and education (ECE) workers experience many job-related stressors. During the COVID-19 pandemic, ECE programs either closed or remained open while workers faced additional demands. We deployed a survey of the center-based ECE workforce in Washington State (United States) one year into the COVID-19 pandemic to assess impacts and workers’ perceived stress levels. We describe the prevalence of reported impacts, including workplace closures; job changes; COVID-19 transmission; risk factors for severe COVID-19; the use of social distancing practices; satisfaction with workplace responses; perceptions of worker roles, respect, and influence; and food and financial insecurity. Themes from open-ended responses illustrate how workers’ jobs changed and the stressors that workers experienced as a result. Fifty-seven percent of ECE workers reported moderate or high levels of stress. In a regression model assessing unique contributions to stress, work changes that negatively impacted home life contributed most to stress. Feeling respected for one’s work and feeling positive about one’s role as an “essential worker” contributed to lower levels of stress. Experiencing financial insecurity, caring for school-aged children or children of multiple ages, being younger, and being born in the United States also contributed to higher stress. Findings can inform policies designed to support the workforce.

The effects of COVID-19 on employment, labor markets, and gender equality in Central America

Abstract This study considers the economic impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on commercial enterprises in four Central American countries – El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. At the time of analysis, neither the pandemic nor its economic consequences had fully run their course. It is not, therefore, a definitive analysis, but it is important to try to draw important lessons as soon as possible. The main focus of the study was the initial impact on labor markets. The analysis was based on World Bank Enterprise Surveys undertaken before the outbreak of COVID-19 and follow-up surveys on the effects of the pandemic, also undertaken by the World Bank (Source: Enterprise Surveys, The World Bank, http://www.enterprisesurveys.org). These were combined with data on both government containment measures and rates of morbidity and mortality. The use of enterprise data to analyze labor market issues has some limitations but also many strengths. The data are useful for analyzing the consequences for gender equality in employment. Since the demand for labor is a derived demand, firm-level data provide a clear link to labor market effects. The pandemic has caused a significant loss in sales for many firms. This has created a loss of liquidity, which, in turn, has caused some firms to reduce employment, working hours, and wages. Government containment measures necessary to save lives, such as temporary workplace closures, have added to the burden for both firms and employees. The study starts by using the surveys to identify the important stylized facts. Although some issues are already well documented anecdotally through media reports, this method provides a more evidence-based approach. It also helps identify several issues, such as the impact on gender equality, which has received less journalistic attention. The study is further supported by a regression analysis (ordinary least squares and seemingly unrelated regression equations models) of several key outcomes (changes in sales, employment, the share of females in employment, and expectations of firm survival). A limitation of such an analysis at any enterprise level is heterogeneity and, consequently, a risk of sample selection bias. To provide robustness checks, we use a matching approach. The results suggest that a significant proportion of surviving firms are vulnerable to permanent closure. The ability of firms to retain labor depends on sales, which are affected by both the pandemic itself and the government containment measures. Only a small proportion of firms have received government support, and there is evidence that it could help both firm survival and the retention of labor. There is some doubt whether the four countries have the institutional capacity to provide effective support. If such doubts prove well founded, then support may need to be externally driven.

The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures

This paper examines the economic effects of COVID-19 containment measures using daily global data on containment measures, infections, and economic activity indicators, such as Nitrogen Dioxide ({mathrm{NO}}_{2}) emissions, international and domestic flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures had a significant impact on economic activity—equivalent to about a 10 percent loss in industrial production over 30 days following their implementation. Easing of containment measures results in an increase in economic activity, but the effect is lower (in absolute value) to that of tightening. Fiscal measures used to mitigate the crisis were effective in partly offsetting these costs. We also find that school closures and cancellation of public events are among the most effective measures in curbing infections and are associated with low economic costs. Other highly effective measures like workplace closures and international travel restrictions are among the costliest in economic terms.

Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study

During the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including school closures, workplace closures and social distancing policies have been employed worldwide to reduce transmission and prevent local outbreaks. However, transmission and the effectiveness of NPIs depend strongly on age-related factors including heterogeneities in contact patterns and pathophysiology. Here, using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we develop a branching process model for assessing the risk that an infectious case arriving in a new location will initiate a local outbreak, accounting for the age distribution of the host population. We show that the risk of a local outbreak depends on the age of the index case, and we explore the effects of NPIs targeting individuals of different ages. Social distancing policies that reduce contacts outside of schools and workplaces and target individuals of all ages are predicted to reduce local outbreak risks substantially, whereas school closures have a more limited impact. In the scenarios considered here, when different NPIs are used in combination the risk of local outbreaks can be eliminated. We also show that heightened surveillance of infectious individuals reduces the level of NPIs required to prevent local outbreaks, particularly if enhanced surveillance of symptomatic cases is combined with efforts to find and isolate nonsymptomatic infected individuals. Our results reflect real-world experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which combinations of intense NPIs have reduced transmission and the risk of local outbreaks. The general modelling framework that we present can be used to estimate local outbreak risks during future epidemics of a range of pathogens, accounting fully for age-related factors.

Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Family Mental Health in Canada: Findings from a Multi-Round Cross-Sectional Study.

Pandemic-related disruptions, including school, child care, and workplace closures, financial stressors, and relationship challenges, present unique risks to families’ mental health. We examined the mental health impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic among parents with children <18 years old living at home over three study rounds in May 2020 (n = 618), September 2020 (n = 804), and January 2021 (n = 602). Data were collected using a cross-sectional online survey of adults living in Canada, nationally representative by age, gender, household income, and region. Chi-square tests and logistic regression compared outcomes between parents and the rest of the sample, among parent subgroups, and over time. Parents reported worsened mental health compared with before the pandemic, as well as not coping well, increased alcohol use, increased suicidal thoughts/feelings, worsened mental health among their children, and increases in both negative and positive parent–child interactions. Mental health challenges were more frequently reported among parents with pre-existing mental health conditions, disabilities, and financial/relationship stressors. Increased alcohol use was more frequently reported among younger parents and men. Sustained mental health challenges of parents throughout nearly a year of the pandemic suggest that intervention efforts to support family mental health may not be adequately meeting families’ needs. Addressing family stressors through financial benefit programs and virtual mental health supports should be further explored.

600 days of Battle

According to Silva (2020b), among 108 well–evaluated countries, NZ was the eighth best nation during 180 days of battle against Covid-19, and one year after that publication, on 29th October, 2021, about 5,004,0026 lives were officially lost by Covid–19, while NZ only reported 28 deaths (WORLDOMETERS, 2021). To complement Gomes da Silva (2020) and Silva (2020a; 2020b; 2021a; 2021b) researches, the main aim of this article is to investigate the NZ performance and management practices used to save lives against Covid-19. It uses an online questionnaire with descriptive, bibliographic and documentary approaches to identify management practices, including cultural practices and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) adopted during the pandemic. The main performance is found by using the Fatality Total Index and Resilience Index to compare NZ's performance with 43 countries during 600 days of battle. As a result: 1) among the 44 countries, NZ was the most resilient and the second (FTI600=0.0165) best-best performer, after China (0.0066); 2) among 131 respondents living in NZ, 34.35% don´t believe that cultural practices are decisive for the low rate of Covid–19 death, while 65.65% believe in that. From those that believe, the most decisive cultural practices were wash hands, not hug in public, and not shake hands; 3) for 131 respondents, the ten main policy measures adopted by the National Government that saved lives against the virus are international travel control, public event cancellations, restriction on internal movement, public information campaigns, schools closures, support the expansion of testing system, wage subsidies for workers, workplace closures, increase the medical and personal equipment capacity, and effective public-private collaboration. At the final, lessons are provided from 360 policies, measures, programs, projects, acts/regulations, innovative products/services identified, with the majority led by the Public Sector (66.7%), followed by Corporations (11.4%), Universities (8.9%), Others (8.3%), and Startups (4.7%).

Food insecurity and COVID-19 risk in low- and middle-income countries.

The COVID‐19 pandemic prompted social distancing, workplace closures, and restrictions on mobility and trade that had cascading effects on economic activity, food prices, and employment in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Using longitudinal data from Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria covering a period from October 2020 to April 2021, the paper assesses whether knowledge of a person infected with COVID‐19 is associated with food insecurity, job loss and business closures, and coping strategies to smooth consumption. The likelihood of households to experience food insecurity at the extensive and intensive margins increased among those who knew an infected person in Bangladesh and Kenya.

Impact of the stringency of lockdown measures on covid-19: A theoretical model of a pandemic.

BackgroundHow effective have lockdowns been at reducing the covid-19 infection and mortality rates? Lockdowns influence contact among persons within or between populations including restricting travel, closing schools, prohibiting public gatherings, requiring workplace closures, all designed to slow the contagion of the virus. The purpose of the present study was to assess the impact of lockdown measures on the spread of covid-19 and test a theoretical model of the covid-19 pandemic employing structural equation modelling.MethodsLockdown variables, population demographics, mortality rates, infection rates, and health were obtained for eight countries: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The dataset, owid-covid-data.csv, was downloaded on 06/01/2020 from: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data. Infection spread and mortality data were depicted as logistic growth and analyzed with stepwise multiple regression. The overall structure of the covid-19 data was explored through factor analyses leading to a theoretical model that was tested using latent variable path analysis.ResultsMultiple regression indicated that the time from lockdown had a small but significant effect (β = 0.112, p< 0.01) on reducing the number of cases per million. The stringency index produced the most important effect for mortality and infection rates (β = 0.588,β = 0.702, β = 0.518, β = 0.681; p< 0.01). Exploratory and confirmatory analyses resulted in meaningful and cohesive latent variables: 1) Mortality, 2) Infection Spread, 3) Pop Health Risk, and 4) Health Vulnerability (Comparative Fit Index = 0.91; Standardized Root Mean Square Residual = 0.08).DiscussionThe stringency index had a large impact on the growth of covid-19 infection and mortality rates as did percentage of population aged over 65, median age, per capita GDP, diabetes prevalence, cardiovascular death rates, and ICU hospital beds per 100K. The overall Latent Variable Path Analysis is theoretically meaningful and coherent with acceptable fit indices as a model of the covid-19 pandemic.

Growing Up Under COVID-19: Young People's Agency in Family Dynamics.

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed the nature of family life in countries across the world. School, and workplace closures meant that families spent more time at home and had to confront new economic, social, and psychological challenges as a result of lockdowns and the greater proximity of family members. Policy, research and media coverage of the pandemic’s impact on family life has focused primarily on the economic costs borne by households. This article draws on the findings from an empirical research project funded by the UK Nuffield Foundation on “Politics, Participation and Pandemics: Growing up under COVID-19”, which worked with young people as co-researchers, to present an innovative perspective on the impact of lockdown on family relationships. The research team adopted a longitudinal ethnographic action research approach to document and make sense of the experiences of young people (aged 14–18) in four countries: Italy, Lebanon Singapore and the United Kingdom. The project used digital ethnography and participatory methods to track the responses of 70 young people to the challenges created by the pandemic. The study used the family as a prism for understanding how the lives of children and young people in different family circumstances and relationships were affected by the crisis. This article analyses, firstly, the complex shifting dynamics within households to identify the transformative effects of the pandemic on family life in various socio-cultural contexts. Secondly, it examines how young people’s agency shaped family dynamics. In conclusion, the authors recommend how the findings from the study can be used to inform government interventions designed to minimise the impacts of the pandemic on the social well-being and rights of children and young people, and to recognise them as active participants in family and civic life both during and after the pandemic

What Will Affect the Diffusion of AI Agents?

For billions of people, the threat of the Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and its variants has precipitated the adoption of new behaviors. Pandemics are radical events that disrupt the gradual course of societal change, offering the possibility that some rapidly adopted innovations will persist in use past the time period of the event and, thus, diffuse more rapidly than in the absence of such an event. Human-machine communication includes a range of technologies with which many of us have quickly become more familiar due to stay-athome orders, distancing, workplace closures, remote instruction, home-bound entertainment, fear of contracting COVID-19, and boredom. In this commentary I focus on Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents, and specifically chatbots, in considering the factors that may affect chatbot diffusion. I consider anthropomorphism and expectancy violations, the characteristics of chatbots, business imperatives, millennials and younger users, and from the user perspective, uses and gratifications.

Mobility data to aid assessment of human responses to extreme environmental conditions

Mobility data to aid assessment of human responses to extreme environmental conditions