Wind Power Prediction Research Articles

Short-term wind power prediction using a novel model based on butterfly optimization algorithm-variational mode decomposition-long short-term memory

The precise forecasting of wind power output is crucial for the integration of large-scale renewable energy generation into the power grid. It plays a vital role in ensuring safe and stable operation of power grid, diminishing fuel consumption, and minimizing environmental impacts. This research presents a machine learning prediction model that integrates intelligent optimization algorithms and data decomposition techniques for short-term wind power output forecasting. The initial phase of this research develops a prediction model utilizing variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks. To mitigate the randomness and uncertainty of wind energy, and improve prediction accuracy, the butterfly optimization algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks. Several in-depth case studies are carried out on the actual wind power generation dataset in mainland China to confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the compared model in terms of prediction accuracy across different seasons, showing good practicality and generalizability.

Wind Power Prediction Model Using Machine Learning

Before installing a wind turbine, it's essential to conduct wind power forecasting to gauge the effectiveness of the wind power initiative. Conventionally, wind speed measurements have been conducted instantaneously between various points. These measurement points solely indicate the locations where wind turbines will be positioned. However, these locations might exhibit reduced wind speeds, potentially making them less suitable for the optimal placement of the wind turbine. To address location challenges, we suggest conducting wind power predictions in areas where wind measuring instruments are yet to be installed. The study relies on the instantaneous measurements already performed at the site set up at the Dedan Kimathi University of Technology. To this end, a wind power forecasting model has been created. Real-time data from the site was gathered via a wireless sensor node utilising the Internet of Things (IoT). Additionally, a machine learning prediction model based on time series analysis was developed. Our forecasts were moderately aligned with the testing values, showing seasonality throughout the year. Therefore, the developed machine learning model captured the underlying patterns, trends, and seasonality in the wind data, making its forecasts reliable.

Ultra-short-term wind power prediction model based on fixed scale dual mode decomposition and deep learning networks

In recent years, decomposition-based combination models have been widely used in wind power prediction. This type of method decomposes the highly volatile wind power into some relatively smooth subsequences, which reduces the difficulty of modeling. However, this might use information from future data in advance, creating the illusion of high prediction accuracy. Therefore, this paper proposes a wind power ultra-short-term prediction model based on fixed scale dual mode decomposition (FSDMD) and deep learning networks. First, the wind power series after fixed scale blocking is decomposed using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and use the improved variational mode decomposition (VMD) based on Spearman rank order correlation coefficient (SROCC) to decompose the obtained high-frequency components twice. Then, the appropriate mode components were selected by calculating the SROCC and experimental analysis, and combined with the convolutional neural network (CNN) and the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network to train the model. Finally, the historical data of wind turbines in a wind farm in Northwest China is used for example verification, and the comparison with other models in the two scenarios of sufficient and insufficient features. The results show that the proposed FSDMD–CNN–BiLSTM model has high prediction accuracy in both scenarios. Especially in the scenario of insufficient features, compared with CNN-BiLSTM model, RMSE, MAE and MAPE are reduced by 8.20,14.24 and 0.15, respectively. In addition, this paper verifies that mode decomposition can improve the performance of prediction model without using future features, which provides ideas for solving similar problems.

An adaptive distribution-matched recurrent network for wind power prediction using time-series distribution period division

Precise wind power prediction (WPP) can address the issue caused by large-scale wind power grid integration to the power system operation. Most WPP research focus on the randomness and high volatility problem of wind power but ignore the time-series distribution shift (TSDS) problem. To solve the TSDS issue, this study proposes a novel hybrid model that incorporates complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), time-series distribution period division (TSDPD) and adaptive distribution-matched GRU (ADMGRU). First, CEEMD is utilized to decompose the nonstationary data into in sub-sequence, reducing complexity and randomness. Second, TSDPD is employed to automatically identify the underlying temporal segments within wind power sequence by maximizing discrepancies in distribution information between two periods, determining the quantity and respective boundaries of periods. Finally, ADMGRU, comprising Pre-train and Boosting-based importance assessment components, learns prediction model accurately by dynamically matching distribution periods. The former component initializes predictive model parameters and the latter learns the importance of each hidden state to assigns corresponding weights to different distributions. Numerous comparative experiments demonstrate the CEEMD-TSDPD-ADMGRU hybrid model surpasses existing popular models. Especially in spring scenario, compared with other four advanced models, the maximum reduction in MAE and RMSE are 54.64 % and 73.33 %, respectively.

The Effect of Varying Artificial Neural Network and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Parameters on Wind Energy Prediction: A Comparative Study

Owing to the development of technology, the majority of nations throughout the world now rely on fossil fuels and nuclear power plants to meet their energy needs. However, as academic research on this subject has shown, it has become clear that alternative energy uses are necessary due to the gradual depletion of these fuels and their significant negative effects on the environment. In order to ensure energy diversity and end the energy shortage, the development of renewable energy sources is crucial. The prediction of wind power is crucial for effectively utilizing the potential of wind energy. In this study, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and an artificial neural network (ANN) have been developed for the prediction of wind power. In this study, data sets were created by taking the daily average wind speeds of the selected wind turbine, the daily average power values it produces, and the daily average wind speed values in the Velimese region. By creating single-hidden layer and multi-hidden layer ANN models, the network was trained multiple times with different activation functions and different numbers of neurons, and wind power prediction was performed. In the ANFIS model, the number of membership functions is kept constant, and wind power prediction is performed using different membership functions. With these ANFIS and ANN models developed with different parameter combinations, it is aimed to determine the most efficient model by performing daily average wind power prediction. Parameter combinations were tested to determine the appropriate models, and as a result, the ANN and ANFIS models were compared with each other.

A design of power prediction algorithm based on health assessment optimized neural network

Wind power prediction holds significant value for the stability of the electrical grid when wind power is connected to the grid. Using neural networks for wind power prediction may have some limitations, such as slow speed and low accuracy. This paper proposes to enhance the power prediction accuracy and speed by optimizing the neural network through health assessment wind turbines. Firstly, based on wind turbine actual operating data, a health assessment is conducted to obtain a health matrix of wind turbine. Then, by calculating the weights of the matrix, the power prediction strategy of the network is optimized. Following that, matrix approximation hyperparameters are utilized to expedite the optimization process. Finally, some tests are conducted on neural network power prediction, act as optimized back propagation (BP) neural network and whale swarm algorithm–support vector regression (WSA-SVR) neural networks are employed for wind power prediction. Results show noticeable optimization: after optimizing the BP network, power prediction accuracy increased by about 40%, and prediction speed rose by about 20%; after optimizing the WSA-SVR network, power prediction accuracy improved by 10%, and prediction speed surged by about 45%. Further analysis shows that this method can improve the accuracy and speed of most neural network wind power prediction algorithms.

A Time Series Prediction Model for Wind Power Based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition–Convolutional Neural Network–Three-Dimensional Gated Neural Network

In response to the global challenge of climate change and the shift away from fossil fuels, the accurate prediction of wind power generation is crucial for optimizing grid operations and managing energy storage. This study introduces a novel approach by integrating the proportional–integral–derivative (PID) control theory into wind power forecasting, employing a three-dimensional gated neural (TGN) unit designed to enhance error feedback mechanisms. The proposed empirical mode decomposition (EMD)–convolutional neural network (CNN)–three-dimensional gated neural network (TGNN) framework starts with the pre-processing of wind data using EMD, followed by feature extraction via a CNN, and time series forecasting using the TGN unit. This setup leverages proportional, integral, and differential control within its architecture to improve adaptability and response to dynamic wind patterns. The experimental results show significant improvements in forecasting accuracy; the EMD–CNN–TGNN model outperforms both traditional models like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), and similar neural network approaches, such as EMD–CNN–GRU and EMD–CNN–LSTM, across several metrics including mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). These advancements substantiate the model’s effectiveness in enhancing the precision of wind power predictions, offering substantial implications for future renewable energy management and storage solutions.

Prediction of wind and PV power by fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a PSO-BiLSTM model

Accurate prediction of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power is essential to ensure the stable operation of power systems. However, the conventional power prediction methods face the challenges in capturing the stochastic fluctuations of wind and PV power. A wind and PV power prediction method fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM) model is developed. To illustrate the oscillation and instability of wind and PV power, the symplectic geometry model decomposition (SGMD) is presented to decompose the feature data and obtain multiple feature sub-sequences. Due to the excessive feature decomposition using the conventional methods, such as empirical modal decomposition, the kernel principal component analysis is utilized to reduce the dimensionality of the nonlinear sub-sequences of the wind and PV power. Compared to the traditional LSTM that ignores the inverse-time correlation between power and meteorological features and is sensitive to the model hyper-parameters, a power prediction model based on PSO-BiLSTM is developed. Using the power data from a power station in Xinjiang Province, China, as an example, the experimental results show that wind and PV power can be accurately forecasted using the developed method with high prediction accuracies of 97.9 % and 98.5 %, respectively.

LSTM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Data Preprocessing and Variational Modal Decomposition for Soft Sensors.

Soft sensors have been extensively utilized to approximate real-time power prediction in wind power generation, which is challenging to measure instantaneously. The short-term forecast of wind power aims at providing a reference for the dispatch of the intraday power grid. This study proposes a soft sensor model based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network by combining data preprocessing with Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD) to improve wind power prediction accuracy. It does so by adopting the isolation forest algorithm for anomaly detection of the original wind power series and processing the missing data by multiple imputation. Based on the process data samples, VMD technology is used to achieve power data decomposition and noise reduction. The LSTM network is introduced to predict each modal component separately, and further sum reconstructs the prediction results of each component to complete the wind power prediction. From the experimental results, it can be seen that the LSTM network which uses an Adam optimizing algorithm has better convergence accuracy. The VMD method exhibited superior decomposition outcomes due to its inherent Wiener filter capabilities, which effectively mitigate noise and forestall modal aliasing. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was reduced by 9.3508%, which indicates that the LSTM network combined with the VMD method has better prediction accuracy.

Multi-temporal Scale Wind Power Forecasting Based on Lasso-CNN-LSTM-LightGBM

Due to the increasingly severe climate problems, wind energy has received widespread attention as the most abundant energy on Earth. However, due to the uncertainty of wind energy, a large amount of wind energy is wasted, so accurate wind power prediction can greatly improve the utilization of wind energy. To increase the forecast for wind energy accuracy across a range of time scales, this paper presents a multi-time scale wind power prediction by constructing an ICEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM-LightGBM model. Initially, feature selection is performed using Lasso regression to identify the most significant variables affecting the forecast for wind energy across distinct time intervals. Subsequently, the ICEEMDAN is utilized to break down the wind power data into various scales to capture its nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. Following this, a deep learning model based on CNN and LSTM networks is developed, with the CNN responsible for extracting spatial features from the time series data, and the LSTM designed to capture the temporal relationships. Finally, the outputs of the deep learning model are fed into the LightGBM model to leverage its superior learning capabilities for the ultimate prediction of wind power. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed ICEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM-LightGBM model achieves higher accuracy in multi-time scale wind power prediction, providing more reliable decision assistance with the management and operation of wind farms.

An Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Quadratic Decomposition and Multi-Objective Optimization

To augment the accuracy, stability, and qualification rate of wind power prediction, thereby fostering the secure and economical operation of wind farms, a method predicated on quadratic decomposition and multi-objective optimization for ultra-short-term wind power prediction is proposed. Initially, the original wind power signal is decomposed using a quadratic decomposition method constituted by the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Fuzzy Entropy (FE), and Symplectic Geometry Mode Decomposition (SGMD), thereby mitigating the randomness and volatility of the original signal. Subsequently, the decomposed signal components are introduced into the Deep Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (DBiLSTM) neural network for time series modeling, and the Sand Cat Swarm Optimization Algorithm (SCSO) is employed to optimize the network hyperparameters, thereby enhancing the network’s predictive performance. Ultimately, a multi-objective optimization loss that accommodates accuracy, stability, and grid compliance is proposed to guide network training. Experimental results reveal that the employed quadratic decomposition method and the proposed multi-objective optimization loss can effectively bolster the model’s predictive performance. Compared to other classical methods, the proposed method achieves optimal results across different seasons, thereby demonstrating robust practicality.

Prediction of wind energy with the use of tensor‐train based higher order dynamic mode decomposition

AbstractAs the international energy market pays more and more attention to the development of clean energy, wind power is gradually attracting the attention of various countries. Wind power is a sustainable and environmentally friendly resource of energy. However, it is unstable. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms for its prediction. In this paper, we apply a recently developed algorithm that effectively combines the tensor train decomposition with the higher order dynamic mode decomposition (TT‐HODMD). The dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a data‐driven technique that does not need a prior mathematical model. It is based on the measurement data or time slots. As demonstrated, for prediction it is important to use the higher order DMD (HODMD). In turn, HODMD might lead to very large scale arrays that are sparse. The tensor train decomposition provides a highly efficient way to work with such arrays. It is demonstrated that the combined TT‐HODMD algorithm is capable of providing quite accurate prediction of wind power for months ahead.

Research on Wind Power Prediction Model Based on Random Forest and SVR

Wind power generation is random and easily affected by external factors. In order to construct an effective prediction model based on wind power generation, a wind power prediction model based on principal component analysis (PCA) noise reduction, feature selection based on random forest model and support vector regression (SVR) algorithm is proposed. First, in the data preprocessing stage, PCA is used for sample data denoising; then the random forest model is used to calculate the importance evaluation value of each feature to optimize the selection of feature parameters; finally, The SVR algorithm is applied for training and prediction. Experiments show that the prediction effect of the model based on random forest and SVR is excellent, the root mean square error(RMSE) is 0.086, the average absolute percentage error(MAPE) is 23.47%, and the coefficient of determination(R2) is 0.991. Compared with the traditional SVR model, the root mean square error of the method proposed in this paper is reduced by 95.9%, and the prediction accuracy and the fit of the prediction curve are significantly improved.

Development and trending of deep learning methods for wind power predictions

With the increasing data availability in wind power production processes due to advanced sensing technologies, data-driven models have become prevalent in studying wind power prediction (WPP) methods. Deep learning models have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability of handling high-dimensional input, automating data feature engineering, and providing high flexibility in modeling. However, with a large volume of deep learning based WPP studies developed in recent literature, it is important to survey the existing developments and their contributions in solving the issue of wind power uncertainty. This paper revisits deep learning-based wind power prediction studies from two perspectives, deep learning-enabled WPP formulations and developed deep learning methods. The advancement of WPP formulations is summarized from the following perspectives, the considered input and output designs as well as the performance evaluation metrics. The technical aspect review of deep learning leveraged in WPPs focuses on its advancement in feature processing and prediction model development. To derive a more insightful conclusion on the so-far development, over 140 recent deep learning-based WPP studies have been covered. Meanwhile, we have also conducted a comparative study on a set of deep models widely used in WPP studies and recently developed in the machine learning community. Results show that DLinear obtains more than 2% improvements by benchmarking a set of strong deep learning models. Potential research directions for WPPs, which can bring profound impacts, are also highlighted.

Self‐paced learning long short‐term memory based on intelligent optimization for robust wind power prediction

AbstractGiven the unpredictable and intermittent nature of wind energy, precise forecasting of wind power is crucial for ensuring the safe and stable operation of power systems. To reduce the influence of noise data on the robustness of wind power prediction, a wind power prediction method is proposed that leverages an enhanced multi‐objective sand cat swarm algorithm (MO‐SCSO) and a self‐paced long short‐term memory network (spLSTM). First, the actual wind power data is processed into time series as input and output. Then, the progressive advantage of self‐paced learning is used to effectively solve the instability caused by noisy data during long short‐term memory network (LSTM) training. Following this, the improved MO‐SCSO is employed to iteratively optimize the hyperparameters of spLSTM. Ultimately, a combined MO‐SCSO‐spLSTM model is constructed for wind power prediction. This model is validated with the data of onshore wind farms in Austria and offshore wind farms in Denmark. The experimental results show that compared with the traditional LSTM prediction method, the proposed method has better prediction accuracy and robustness. Specifically, in the onshore and offshore wind power prediction experiments, the proposed method reduces the minimum MAE by 5.44% and 4.96%, respectively, and reduces the MAE range by 4.45% and 17.21%, respectively, which could be conducive to the safe and stable operation of power system.

Short-term Wind Power Forecasts based on VMD-KPCA and CFSBOA-BiLSTM

Accurate prediction of wind power is of great significance to reduce the impact of large-scale wind power connection and improve the security and stability of power grid. A short-term wind power forecasting method based on VMD-KPCA and CFSBOA-BiLSTM is proposed. Firstly, the key environmental factors restricting the volatility of wind power are fully considered, and the variational mode decomposition method is used to decompose the wind power and meteorological factors. Secondly, the kernel principal component analysis method is used to reduce the dimension and construct the sub-sequence characteristic data set. Finally, the multi-strategy improved butterfly algorithm is used to optimize the BiLSTM network hyperparameters and establish the CFSBOA-BiLSTM prediction model. The simulation analysis uses the measured data of a wind farm in northwest China. The experimental results show that the combined forecasting model can fully mine the hidden information of the data and improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting. Compared with the BiLSTM model, RMSE, MAE and MAPE decreased by 60.37%, 66.6% and 67.59%, respectively.

Novel wind power ensemble forecasting system based on mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection strategy

Accurate wind power forecasting helps to maximize the utilization of wind energy resources, enhance wind power generation efficiency, and optimize grid operation. This study proposes an innovative mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection-based ensemble wind power forecasting system. Specifically, the data preprocessing module preprocesses wind speed and wind power data at different frequencies. The mixed-frequency modeling module then constructs 12 mixed-frequency and machine learning models to predict wind power, with a comprehensive evaluation metric to determine their optimal lags. Subsequently, the base model selection module effectively combines the elastic net and Shapley additive explanation methods to identify individual models that contribute significantly to the prediction target as base models. Finally, the ensemble module integrates the optimization algorithms with a machine learning model to ensemble the selected base models. The key findings are as follows: (1) mixed-frequency wind speed and wind power data effectively improve forecasting performance, and (2) the proposed base model selection strategy greatly enhances the accuracy and interpretability of the modeling process. This model could robustly predict two datasets from Inner Mongolian wind farms, with average absolute percentage errors of 2.4505% and 4.8270%, respectively, establishing this as a useful technique for wind power prediction.

Optimized extreme learning machine using genetic algorithm for short-term wind power prediction

Through the much defiance facing energy today, it has become necessary to rely on wind energy as a source of unlimited renewable energies. However, energy planning and regulation require wind capacity forecasting, because oscillations of wind speed drastically affect directly power generation. Therefore, several scenarios must be provided to allow for estimating uncertainties. To deal with this problem, this paper exploits the major advantages of the regularized extreme learning machine algorithm (R-ELM) and thus proposes a model for predicting the wind energy generated for the next hour based on the time series of wind speed. The R-ELM is combined with the genetic algorithm which is designed to optimize the most important hyperparameter which is the number of hidden neurons. Thus, the proposed model aims to forecast the average wind power per hour based on the wind speed of the previous hours. The results obtained showed that the proposed method is much better than those reported in the literature concerning the precision of the prediction and the time convergence.

A STAM-LSTM model for wind power prediction with feature selection

In an effort to enhance the precision of wind power prediction, this study proposes a wind power prediction model with a secondary-weighted attention mechanism, which is based on feature selection. During the pre-processing stage, wavelet denoising is employed on the original dataset to eliminate noise and enhance the convergence rate of the model. As for model improvement, a secondary-weighted time attention mechanism-LSTM (STAM-LSTM) model is proposed. Additionally, the random forest algorithm is employed to analyse the feature correlation, leading to the best feature combination for the construction of the final input vector. In the comparative experiments, the STAM-LSTM model shows good performance and stability compared to the other nine models and three reference methods. In addition, to validate the effectiveness of feature selection, different combinations of features are entered for prediction. The results show that the model metrics reach a better level after feature selection. Finally, the effects of the STAM mechanism and the Random Forest feature screening assistance strategy, on the model are analysed through ablation experiments.

A Compound Approach for Monitoring the Variation in Wind Turbine Power Performance with SCADA Data

The performance of wind turbines directly determines the profitability of wind farms. However, the complex environmental conditions and influences of various uncertain factors make it difficult to accurately assess and monitor the actual power generation performance of wind turbines. A data-driven approach is proposed to intelligently monitor the power generation performance evolution of wind turbines based on operational data. Considering the inherent nonlinearity and structural complexity of wind turbine systems, a data-derived characteristic construction and dimensionality reduction method based on KPCA is adopted as a prerequisite. Additionally, an AdaBoost-enhanced regressor is applied to wind power prediction with adequate inputs, and day-oriented deviation indicators are further constructed for quantifying performance fluctuations. The final validation phase includes two application cases: In the first case, the results show that the proposed method is sensitive enough to capture the early characteristics of blade damage faults. In the second case, an uncertainty error within ±0.5% demonstrates that the proposed method has high-level accuracy in the quantitative assessment of the power performance and good practical effectiveness in real engineering applications.