Prediction of wind and PV power by fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a PSO-BiLSTM model

Abstract

Accurate prediction of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power is essential to ensure the stable operation of power systems. However, the conventional power prediction methods face the challenges in capturing the stochastic fluctuations of wind and PV power. A wind and PV power prediction method fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM) model is developed. To illustrate the oscillation and instability of wind and PV power, the symplectic geometry model decomposition (SGMD) is presented to decompose the feature data and obtain multiple feature sub-sequences. Due to the excessive feature decomposition using the conventional methods, such as empirical modal decomposition, the kernel principal component analysis is utilized to reduce the dimensionality of the nonlinear sub-sequences of the wind and PV power. Compared to the traditional LSTM that ignores the inverse-time correlation between power and meteorological features and is sensitive to the model hyper-parameters, a power prediction model based on PSO-BiLSTM is developed. Using the power data from a power station in Xinjiang Province, China, as an example, the experimental results show that wind and PV power can be accurately forecasted using the developed method with high prediction accuracies of 97.9 % and 98.5 %, respectively.