Wien Automatic System Planning Research Articles

Strategies for the symbiotic development of renewable power and nuclear power under the ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy in South Korea: Part II. Technical solutions for expanding renewable power generation

In recent years, the Korean government has recently implemented the ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy to substantially expand renewable energy without the inclusion of nuclear and coal-fired power plants. This study analyzes the changing conditions of the national power system on the assumption that ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy achieves the goal of the expansion of renewable energy generation to 20% by 2030. Korean government needs to consider the effects of technological innovation, changes in market, and the possibility of social consensus deduction. The Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) model was used to verify the implementation of the long-term power development plan within specified constraints. The extension methodology of renewable power equipment was verified using the WASP model, which provides the basis for the application of scientific logic and suggestion to drive the national energy transition policy efficiently. Currently, technological and economic uncertainties related to nuclear and renewable power generation need to be investigated. Thereafter, energy transition needs to be examined to promote an alternative energy policy considering the technological innovation and the social consensus. The national energy transition policy will likely succeed, if based on the accurate technical planning and evaluation of the symbiotic strategies for nuclear and renewable power generation.

The WASP model on the symbiotic strategy of renewable and nuclear power for the future of ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy in South Korea

The Korean government has recently implemented the energy transition ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy to expand dramatically renewable energy without adding nuclear and coal-fired power plants. This study provides an opportunity to use scientific analysis to investigate the ripple effects of the ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy, which expects renewable energy generation to reach 20% by 2030, and the policy enforcement of efficient energy transition. More specifically, the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) model has been used to verify the implementation of the long-term power development plan within specified constraints. In accordance with the methodology in the WASP-ΙV model, assuming that the ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy succeeds, additional charges of approximately 144 billion KRW by 2035 has been estimated. Therefore, a combination of continuous baseload power and variable renewable power plants can help to implement the ‘Renewable Energy 3020’ policy successfully. If technological and economic uncertainties related to renewable and nuclear powers are neglected, the second-best energy transition would need to be examined to promote an alternative energy policy, considering the technological innovation and the social consensus.

Projected Avoided Costs of Conventional Power Plants in Libya Using Wind Energy

This paper investigates the costs that can be avoided by using wind energy in the central coastal area of Libya. The investigation of the capacity credit was performed in a previous work. The analysis included Fuel saving, capacity saving and emission reduction (NO, SO2 and CO2) to the atmosphere. The avoided costs were translated into equivalent energy costs of wind energy systems. The evaluation was conducted using the reliability (LOLP) analysis and the contribution of wind system during peak demand to the utility total electricity generation system. The calculations were carried out using WASP (Wien Automatic System Planning Package) for the proposed period of 2009-2019 where wind power installation would increase from 100 MW in 2009 to 500 MW in 2019. The results showed that the avoided costs of wind energy will increase from 2.4 c/kWh in 2009 to 8.6 c/kWh in 2019. The mean value of the avoided costs of wend energy over the 10-year period is 6 c/kWh, which would make wind power economically competitive with conventional power plants in Libya. Further investigations of detailed external costs of all energy systems in the national energy mix, as well as the feed in tariff, are recommended and should be introduced to the national energy sectors in order to promote implementation of wind energy and other renewable energy technologies.

MATPLAN: A probability-based planning tool for cost-effective grid integration of renewable energy

This paper describes the developed MATPLAN - a probability-based production costing tool that treats renewable energy sources as candidates in a power system expansion planning study. Similar to the structure of the well-known Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) package, MATPLAN comprises six modules: LOAD-CALC, EXIST-GEN, CANDI-GEN, CONFIG, OPTIMIZE and ELCC. MATPLAN takes into account the variable nature of renewable energy sources, including both solar and wind farms, and allows a user to consider renewable energy as options for expansion planning using a probability-based model. In contrast to the current practice that treats renewable energy sources as negative loads, MATPLAN enables system planners to take renewable sources as normal options for generation expansion planning problems, which can directly determine the optimal expansion policy and ELCC analysis of a system with high renewable penetration. MATPLAN is also designed as an open access software package which academics and practitioners can adapt to their specific situations and run many case studies as a screening tool. In the case studies, the tool was validated by comparing its resulting optimal expansion planning plan against that of the well-known WASP package and further tested using realistic field data. The complete MATPLAN code repository has been released under open-source licenses for public access, URL: https://github.com/wasp2019/MATPLAN. MATPLAN Wiki is also available, providing MATPLAN overview, features, user guides and developer resources.

Applications of Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) Model to Non-Standard Power System Expansion Problems

This paper presents several applications of Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) tool to address specific modeling challenges encountered in power system expansion planning problems. Although WASP has been used by power system planners around the world for many decades, its standard formulation does not allow the user to explicitly model many situations that can occur in realistic power systems. Examples of such situations include dual-fuel plants, options for electricity exports, energy exchange agreements with neighboring systems, and considering large generating units as candidates in relatively small-size systems. A number of alternative modeling solutions are proposed in the paper based on the authors’ long-term experience in carrying out generation expansion studies for electricity systems of various types and sizes. These solutions demonstrate the flexibility of using WASP to model atypical features of power systems.

Competitiveness of open-cycle gas turbine and its potential in the future Korean electricity market with high renewable energy mix

In this paper, we analyzed the competitiveness of an open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) in the Korean electricity market and found reasons why OCGT has not been constructed since 2001, when the market opened. Through the analysis, we found that OCGT was weak in the Korean electricity market due to 3 factors: high load factor, high price of liquefied natural gas, and existing inefficient power plants. Using the conformity theory of the optimum in resource planning and the equilibrium in market dynamics, we verified the reasons by implementing resource planning using the Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP)-Ⅳ package with actual market data for the 16 years from 2001 to 2016. In addition, considering the new energy policy of Korea, shifting main sources of electricity generation from nuclear and coal to clean renewable energies and natural gas, we analyzed the competitiveness of OCGT in the future Korean electricity market. We identified the factors unfavorable for OCGT in the current market and suggested what should be changed to cope with high renewable energy penetration.

Analyzing Reliability of Tamil Nadu Power Grid for the Year 2015 using Wasp-IV

Reliability is the core element measure to be taken into account in electrical power system planning, design and in operation. This reliability of power system is viewed as the probability of providing uninterruptable/continuous power supply to the consumers in an efficient way meeting their load demand. The objective of this paper is to study, analyze and examine the reliability of Tamil Nadu power grid by accounting the load demand for the year 2015. For an effective and error free analysis of this reliability, generation reliability indices of Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Energy Not Served (ENS) are used as reliability deciding criteria. In accordance with the objective, the reliability analysis for the restricted peak demand of the state of Tamil Nadu for the year 2015 has been made using Wien Automatic System Planning IV (WASP IV). The Progress Report for 2015 issued by Southern Regional Power Committee is used for collecting official and authentic data for the study. Methodology for this study is formulated by applying Forced Outage Rate (FOR) at two different ways whereby reliability indices are analyzed. The study reveals that in the first approach FOR is hypothetical as per its commencement period of the plants, where as in second approach deals with approximate unavailability data. Attempt is made to improve the reliability in Tamil Nadu Power Grid by adapting to expected measures. This analysis is made by applying Demand Side Management (DSM) with the implementation of energy sufficient programs. The results showed that there is a reduction in the Loss of Load Probability and Energy Not Served when energy efficient program in demand side is adapted.

Expansion Planning of Electricity Generating System Using the VALORAGUA and WASP-IV Models in Nepal

This paper presents a framework for a possible expansion plan of Nepal’s electricity generation system using VALORAGUA and Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP-IV) models as examples. Given that Nepal seeks to add several hydropower plants to the Integrated National Power System (INPS) in the next few years, this type of planning is crucial. To explore potential expansion plans, the 48 hydropower plants (20 of which are currently operating) within 18 hydro networks and two diesel plants are included, and different options such as the possibility of export, seasonal variations in hydrology, and projected growth rates in gross domestic product are considered. The results illustrate the long run marginal cost (LRMC) and loss of load probability (LoLP) through 2030 in Nepal. It is found that LRMC is 3.50 Nepali Rupees per kilowatt hour at 4.1% of average LoLP. While scrutinizing the results, it is found that LoLP is higher in early stage of projections due to generation capacity limitations from 2014 to 2016. However, by the end of 2017, the LRMC and LoLP begin to decrease significantly. On this premise, the model suggests to introduce large storage plants for hydropower generation and export of that excess energy. Furthermore, a proper implementation of proposed peaking and storage plants to meet rising demand can offset the need to obtain electricity through more expensive and less environmentally-friendly means such as thermal/diesel plants.HYDRO Nepal JournalJournal of Water, Energy and EnvironmentIssue: 19Page: 45-51

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LOSS OF LOAD EXPECTATION AND RESERVE MARGIN FOR OPTIMAL GENERATION PLANNING

Generation planning utilizes reliability indices as criteria to ensure adequacy in terms of total installed capacity. Reserve Margin and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) are the most widely-used indices in generation adequacy evaluation. Reserve Margin is a measure of available capacity over and above the capacity needed to meet normal peak demand levels. In Peninsular Malaysia, the amount of Reserve Margin has been perceived to be high. Generally, high Reserve Margin can provide high reliability. However, it acquires more generation plant, for which some of them may not be necessary. This may indicate over investment which will be reflected in the tariff structure. LOLE is a probabilistic measure which indicates the risk at which the generation capacity fails to meet the demand and its evaluation involves specific parameters such as the plant capacity and outage rate of each generating unit. Therefore, in order to have optimum generation planning and investment efficiency, it is necessary to perform a study on the practical Reserve Margin level with respect to the current LOLE requirement without endangering the overall power system reliability. This research studies the factors affecting LOLE and evaluates the relationship between Reserve Margin and LOLE under various conditions. A modified Peninsular Malaysia system is simulated using Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP -IV) to determine LOLE focusing on thermal power plants. This study concludes that peak load and forced outage rate give significant impacts to the LOLE and thus, the reliability of the system. Effort to ensure availability especially during peak load may need to be intensified. The study also establishes an inverse exponential curve for the relationship between Reserve Margin and LOLE. It is found that the outcome of the study is to enhance generation planning decision making in obtaining the optimum Reserve Margin considering the LOLE under various conditions.

Analysis of electric vehicle charging using the traditional generation expansion planning analysis tool WASP-IV

Electric vehicles (EV) are proposed as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in transport and support increased wind power penetration across modern power systems. Optimal benefits can only be achieved, if EVs are deployed effectively, so that the exhaust emissions are not substituted by additional emissions in the electricity sector, which can be implemented using Smart Grid controls. This research presents the results of an EV roll-out in the all island grid (AIG) in Ireland using the long term generation expansion planning model called the Wien Automatic System Planning IV (WASP-IV) tool to measure carbon dioxide emissions and changes in total energy. The model incorporates all generators and operational requirements while meeting environmental emissions, fuel availability and generator operational and maintenance constraints to optimize economic dispatch and unit commitment power dispatch. In the study three distinct scenarios are investigated base case, peak and off-peak charging to simulate the impacts of EV’s in the AIG up to 2025.

Generation Expansion Planning Model Supporting Diverse Environmental Policies for Reduction of Greenhouse Gases

The purpose of this paper is to a develop model for generation expansion planning that can support diverse environmental policies for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) of South Korea. South Korea is required to reduce its GHG emissions by 30% from the BAU level by 2020. The Wien Automatic System Planning Package currently used in South Korea has limitations in terms of the application of renewable energy policies and GHG targets; this paper proposes the use of an equipment planning model named generation and transmission expansion program, which has been developed to resolve such limitations. For verification of the model, a case study on the 6th Basic Plan of Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand has been conducted. The results show that for the year 2020 South Korea's annual GHG emissions will be 36.6% more than the GHG Target Management System (GHG TMS) target set for the same year (30%). To achieve the GHG TMS target, the costs involved amount to about 72 trillion KRW (70 billion USD). Consequently, the South Korean government needs to review the performability of this target.

Generation expansion planning for Tamil Nadu: a case study

Summary Generation expansion planning (GEP) is a highly constrained, non-linear optimization problem. The selection of the best expansion alternative for long-term planning horizon is commonly referred as GEP problem. In this paper, the GEP problem is solved for Tamil Nadu, an Indian state for the period of 30 years from 2012 to 2041 using a state-of-the-art computer model Wien Automatic System Planning IV package. In the year 2012, the peak load for Tamil Nadu was approximately 12 000 MW and had a peak load shortage of 3500–4000 MW. A load growth rate of 6.65% per annum is assumed on the basis of past data. Raising coal costs, pollution impacts associated conventional plants make renewable sources an attractive proposition for development. Renewable energies such as wind and solar are considered as expansion candidates in addition to conventional plants. The impact of incorporating renewable energy resources into an electric utility's generation expansion plan has been studied with different penetration level. The reliability criteria, loss of load probability, and energy not served are also calculated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Macro Scale Modelling of Wind Plants in Long Term Planning Studies - A Sri Lankan Case Study

Harnessing Non Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) sources as small-scale embedded generation is rapidly increasing around the world. Modeling most NCRE based generation becomes an arduous task owing to their extremely volatile nature of resource availability along with present day economic, technical, social and environmental constraints. In this context, Sri Lanka is no exception. According to the energy policy-2006, energy share from NCRE is targeted to reach 10% of total electricity generation by 2015. According to National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) report [1], wind energy potential in Sri Lanka is high compared with other technologies; mini hydro and biomass. Recent commissioning of about 30 MW of wind plants in Kalpitiya peninsula is an indication of investor interest in wind energy development for power generation. Therefore , modeling of wind power plants in long term planning can no longer be simple, such as representation as a lumped equivalent thermal plant with high Forced Outage Rate (FOR). Preparation of a macro scale wind plant model for Sri Lanka has not been undertaken before using the economic optimization tool Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) package. This gap is addressed in this paper. Two models were initially prepared to be compatible with WASP. An in-depth study using (i) Modified Load Duration Curve method and (ii) Run of River (ROR) type hydro equivalent wind model based on five state probabilistic distributions, were investigated. Compatibility of new models was tested with WASP for dispatching as embedded generators. Considering the model simplicity, requirement of time & effort for sensitivity analyses and modifications, the later approach was concluded as the most appropriate for long term planning studies. ENGINEER, Vol. 46, No. 01, pp. 11-20, 2013

Modelling of Mini Hydro Plants in Long Term Planning Studies - A Sri Lankan case study

The development of green energy and cutting down fossil fuel fired brown energy is now matured from the voluntary commitment stage up to a level of fixing national policy targets even in developing countries [1], [2] including Sri Lanka [3]. Thus, the share of Non Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) in electricity generation is becoming crucial in modern generation planning studies. As a result, many advanced research studies have been conducted around the world [8]-[13]. In particular, no national level detailed study has yet been conducted to model the macro impacts of large numbers of distributed mini hydro plants, in long term planning studies. Owing to the increasing share of contribution from mini hydro power plants, especially as embedded, non-dispatchable generation, simplified models such as the thermal equivalent model with high Forced Outage Rate (FOR) which is the current practice will no longer be justifiable. A suitable model should accommodate the seasonal variation of energy availability as well as the operational aspects specific to embedded generation. This study proposes a probabilistic model to meet this vital requirement of the entire group of mini hydro plants. The operational aspects of the model have been verified by using the optimization tool Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP), the same planning tool used by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) and many other utilities worldwide for generation planning. Special attention has been paid to ensure that the model will be suitable for conducting sensitivity studies. The predictability of the model has been checked with past data. Although a Sri Lankan case study was applied to validate the model, the technique is more general and can be adapted for any other case studies as well. ENGINEER, Vol. 46, No. 01, pp. 1-10, 2013

Projected Avoided Costs of Conventional Power Plants in Libya Using Wind Energy

This paper investigates the costs that can be avoided by using wind energy in the central coastal area of Libya. The investigation of the capacity credit was performed in a previous work. The analysis included Fuel saving, capacity saving and emission reduction (NO, SO2 and CO2) to the atmosphere. The avoided costs were translated into equivalent energy costs of wind energy systems. The evaluation was conducted using the reliability (LOLP) analysis and the contribution of wind system during peak demand to the utility total electricity generation system. The calculations were carried out using WASP (Wien Automatic System Planning Package) for the proposed period of 2009-2019 where wind power installation would increase from 100 MW in 2009 to 500 MW in 2019. The results showed that the avoided costs of wind energy will increase from 2.4 c/kWh in 2009 to 8.6 c/kWh in 2019. The mean value of the avoided costs of wend energy over the 10-year period is 6 c/kWh, which would make wind power economically competitive with conventional power plants in Libya. Further investigations of detailed external costs of all energy systems in the national energy mix, as well as the feed-in tariff, are recommended and should be introduced to the national energy sectors in order to promote the implementation of wind energy and other renewable energy technologies.

Optimization Model using WASP-IV for Pakistan’s Power Plants Generation Expansion Plan

This paper introduces novel framework for the modeling of hydro and thermal power plants generation system expansion plan for Pakistan. The modeling is achieved by using WASP-IV (Wien Automatic System Planning) model. It consists of seven modules. Each module determines different outputs with their respective inputs. Electricity demand is rapidly increasing as the population rises. The Electricity demand increased with devastating rate of 7.8% per year from 2003 to 2011. The installed capacity is not fulfilling the electricity demand. An mandatory generation mix supply is required for the time period 2011-2030. The Power Expansion Planning is done on generation level. In 2011, electricity demand raised to 25,400 MW. . In this paper load is forecasted with standard regression method. It helps in prediction of different types of loads. Then the Load Duration Curves generated are normalized against capacity factor at which power plant is operated. Further several necessary parameters are evaluated which are involved in generation expansion plan. Moreover, the selection of plants is achieved through screening curves. It allow us to know the most economical plants for base load, base load and peak load at different capacity factors. Screening curve is created by finding annualized cost, capital cost, heat rate, fuel rate and fixed costs for each plant. Thus by comparison, it helps us in a more convenient way to select the most feasible plant in correspondence of economical and fuel constraints. The result illustrates the Optimized Cost of Generation Plan, Generation Mix Supply for Pakistan (year 2030). It emphasizes on Investment and Production Costs ($ US Million), Fuel requirement and their costs, Operation and Maintenance Costs, and Loss of Load Probability. In the end, least cost financial plan for the whole time period is determined.

Challenges of nuclear power for sustainable role in Korean energy policy

This study aims to introduce the current role of nuclear power in Korea as the economic resource and low carbon emitter using WASP-IV (Wien Automatic System Planning Package) code for the long term electric power expansion planning. The current role of nuclear power in the long term power expansion is expressed as the portion of installed or generation capacity comparing coal, LNG or renewables. Analysis on the nuclear role is carried out in terms of the total power system operation cost, benefit of carbon reduction and stable power supply. The objective and approach of this study are to compare the different types of scenarios in terms of the system cost changes, CO 2 emission reduction and system reliability. The results from this analysis are useful for the Korean government in charge of long term energy policy to go over what kinds of role can each electric resource play and what are the best way to solve the triangular dilemma as economics, environmental friendliness, stable supply of the future energy policy.

Development of regional capacity expansion plan in Russia (application of the WASP model)

The Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP) is used for the development of an optimal capacity expansion plan in Russia. The object of the WASP study is the Central power pool, which is the largest power pool in Russia and has an essential share of nuclear power in electricity generation. The object of the study is to assess the long–term competitiveness of nuclear power in the region. A regional optimal capacity expansion plan developed with WASP shows that nuclear power can retain its role as one of the major electricity generation sources in the region. The most important factor with a positive effect upon the competitiveness of nuclear power plants is the projected escalation of the prices of fossil fuels.

A hybrid genetic algorithm/dynamic programming approach to optimal long-term generation expansion planning

This paper describes an application of a hybrid approach to optimal generation expansion planning (GEP) using a refined genetic algorithm (GA) and the tunnel-based dynamic programming (DP). Long-term GEP is concerned with a highly constrained non-linear discrete dynamic optimization problem that can only be fully solved by complete enumeration, a process which is computationally infeasible in a real-world GEP problem. For this reason, commercial packages have searched a reduced solution space or applied mathematical programming algorithms, which result in being stuck in a local optimum. This paper proposes a hybrid approach combining a refined GA with the tunnel-based DP, a method employed in the Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP). The main advantage of this approach lies in the GA's capability to find the global optimum and the tunnel-based DP's high performance to get a local optimum. The framework developed can simultaneously overcome the “curse of dimensionality” and a local optimal trap inherent in the conventional mathematical programming approaches. The suggested method has been successfully applied to two test systems with 15 existing power plants, five types of candidate plant and a 14-year planning period, and a practical long-term system with a 24-year planning period.