Optimization Model using WASP-IV for Pakistan’s Power Plants Generation Expansion Plan

Abstract

This paper introduces novel framework for the modeling of hydro and thermal power plants generation system expansion plan for Pakistan. The modeling is achieved by using WASP-IV (Wien Automatic System Planning) model. It consists of seven modules. Each module determines different outputs with their respective inputs. Electricity demand is rapidly increasing as the population rises. The Electricity demand increased with devastating rate of 7.8% per year from 2003 to 2011. The installed capacity is not fulfilling the electricity demand. An mandatory generation mix supply is required for the time period 2011-2030. The Power Expansion Planning is done on generation level. In 2011, electricity demand raised to 25,400 MW. . In this paper load is forecasted with standard regression method. It helps in prediction of different types of loads. Then the Load Duration Curves generated are normalized against capacity factor at which power plant is operated. Further several necessary parameters are evaluated which are involved in generation expansion plan. Moreover, the selection of plants is achieved through screening curves. It allow us to know the most economical plants for base load, base load and peak load at different capacity factors. Screening curve is created by finding annualized cost, capital cost, heat rate, fuel rate and fixed costs for each plant. Thus by comparison, it helps us in a more convenient way to select the most feasible plant in correspondence of economical and fuel constraints. The result illustrates the Optimized Cost of Generation Plan, Generation Mix Supply for Pakistan (year 2030). It emphasizes on Investment and Production Costs ($ US Million), Fuel requirement and their costs, Operation and Maintenance Costs, and Loss of Load Probability. In the end, least cost financial plan for the whole time period is determined.