Usual Scenario Research Articles

Characterization and functional analysis of the hypothetical protein in Yersinia pestis

A hypothetical protein is a protein which exists but the function is not known. These are the proteins for which there is no experimental evidence that it is expressed in vivo. The usual scenario involving a hypothetical protein is gene identification during genome analysis. The function of a hypothetical protein can also be predicted by domain homology searches with various confidence levels. The Human Genome project and the genome projects of many other organisms has been a source for the information on the sequences and their functional aspects. However, this resulted in identification of many proteins which are hypothetical. Our project is mainly focused on these proteins. One of the hypothetical proteins with accession number AAM86904 is analyzed. This protein is from the organism Yersinia pestis KIM. This is a bacteria and kim is the strain to which the bacteria belongs. This study revealed a good amount of information about this protein. The protein characteristics, properties and similarities with other proteins are identified. The main principle for this study is that similar sequences having structural similarity are functionally related.

FRESHER: Challenges and opportunities for building Health/Healthy futures

Abstract Background FRESHER (2016-2018) Foresight and modelling for European health policy and regulation - is a H2020 project that aimed at representing alternative health Scenarios to test future policies for tacking Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). The key added-value consists in the combination of qualitative foresight and quantitative forecast approaches: a micro-simulation model, specifically developed by the project, computed the health outcomes of the four FRESHER Scenarios. Methods The Scenarios building activities involved overall more than four-hundred experts and stakeholders, with different backgrounds within and beyond health fields, throughout all the steps of the process, in two surveys and nine workshops. The horizon scanning phase led to identify a wide range of societal trends that impact health and NCDs. Considering a long-term horizon at 2050, eight trends were then selected and ranked according to their importance and uncertainty. Results In the Scenario Building phase, the combination of different evolutions of the selected trends resulted in four alternative futures: a Business as Usual Scenario, “The rich get healthier”, two response Scenarios, “We will Health you” and “Healthy together”, and a worst case Scenario “Desolation Health”. The scenarios imagine different futures and depict how health would subsequently change in such worlds. Conclusions Given the increasing need to put health at the centre of all policies, it is necessary to make more evident the relationship between societal trends and their impact on health, specifically for NCDs. The translation of trends, and their evolutions, into changes of risk factors is a viable option to assess the impact of public health policy. FRESHER aimed to trigger a dialogue across different scientific and policy communities outside the health sector in order to define innovative strategies and identify disruptive innovations.

Evaluation and prediction of land use change impacts on ecosystem service values in Nanjing City from 1995 to 2030.

Land use changes have a considerable impact on ecosystem services (ESs). In recent years, land use changes caused by urban expansion in Nanjing City have been obvious and are expected to further change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to quantitatively assess ecosystem service value (ESV) changes caused by previous land use changes and future potential changes in Nanjing. In this study, land use data products based on remote sensing images, Dyna-CLUE model, and the ESV equivalent coefficient method were applied to assess the impact of land use changes on ESVs in Nanjing City over the past 23 years (1995-2018), and to forecast the changes of ESV in 2030. The results indicated that the total ESVs of Nanjing City displayed a trend of first increasing and then declining in 1995-2018. From the land use classification, the water area had the largest ESV in Nanjing, followed by arable land. Additionally, the regulating service value was the highest among the four primary ESs in Nanjing from 1995 to 2030, with the highest value of 13.73 billion yuan in 2015. Among the three forecast scenarios, the ecological protection scenario had the highest total ESV and was followed by the urban expansion and business as usual scenarios. These findings may assist for the scientific decision-making of sustainable land use and ecosystem management in Nanjing City.

Progress towards achieving child survival goals in Kenya after devolution: Geospatial analysis with scenario-based projections, 2015-2025.

Subnational projections of under-5 mortality (U5M) have increasingly become an essential planning tool to support Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda and strategies for improving child survival. To support child health policy, planning, and tracking child development goals in Kenya, we projected U5M at units of health decision making. County-specific annual U5M were estimated using a multivariable Bayesian space-time hierarchical model based on intervention coverage from four alternate intervention scale-up scenarios assuming 1) the highest subnational intervention coverage in 2014, 2) projected coverage based on the fastest county-specific rate of change observed in the period between 2003-2014 for each intervention, 3) the projected national coverage based on 2003-2014 trends and 4) the country-specific targets of intervention coverage relative to business as usual (BAU) scenario. We compared the percentage change in U5M based on the four scale-up scenarios relative to BAU and examined the likelihood of reaching SDG 3.2 target of at least 25 deaths/1,000 livebirths by 2022 and 2025. Projections based on 10 factors assuming BAU, showed marginal reductions in U5M across counties with all the counties except Mandera county not achieving the SDG 3.2 target by 2025. Further, substantial reductions in U5M would be achieved based on the various intervention scale-up scenarios, with 63.8% (30), 74.5% (35), 46.8% (22) and 61.7% (29) counties achieving SDG target for scenarios 1,2,3 and 4 respectively by 2025. Scenario 2 yielded the highest reductions of U5M with individual scale-up of access to improved water, recommended treatment of fever and accelerated HIV prevalence reduction showing considerable impact on U5M reduction (≥ 20%) relative to BAU. Our results indicate that sustaining an ambitious intervention scale-up strategy matching the fastest rate observed between 2003-2014 would substantially reduce U5M in Kenya. However, despite this ambitious scale-up scenario, 25% (12 of 47) of the Kenya's counties would still not achieve SDG 3.2 target by 2025.

The effect of COVID-19 lockdown on atmospheric total particle numbers, nanoparticle numbers and mass concentrations in the UK

The main aim of the COVID-19 lockdown was to curtail the person-to-person transmission of COVID-19. However, it also acted as an air quality intervention. The effect of the lockdown has been extensively analysed on NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5, however, little has been done on how total (TPN) and nanoparticle numbers (NPN) have been affected by the lockdown. This paper quantifies the effect of the lockdown on TPN and NPN in the UK, and compares how the effect varies between rural, urban background and traffic sites. Furthermore, the effect on particle numbers is compared with particle mass concentrations, mainly PM10 and PM2.5. Two approaches are used: (a) comparing measured levels of the pollutants in 2019 with 2020 during the lockdown periods; and (b) comparing the predictions of machine learning with measured concentrations using business as usual (BAU) scenario during the lockdown period. P100 (particle size ≤100 nm) increased by 39% at Chilbolton Observatory (CHO) and decreased by 13% and 14% at London Honor Oak Park (LHO) and London Marylebone Road (LMR), respectively. Particles from 101 to 200 nm (P200) showed a similar trend to P100, however, average levels of particles 201–605 nm (P605) decreased at all sites. TPN, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations decreased at LMR and LHO sites. Estimated PM10, PM2.5 and TPN decreased at all three sites, however, the amount of change varied from site to site. Pollutant concentrations increased back the to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting more sustainable interventions for permanent air quality improvement.

Cartan F(R) Gravity and Equivalent Scalar–Tensor Theory

We investigate the Cartan formalism in F(R) gravity. F(R) gravity has been introduced as a theory to explain cosmologically accelerated expansions by replacing the Ricci scalar R in the Einstein–Hilbert action with a function of R. As is well-known, F(R) gravity is rewritten as a scalar–tensor theory by using the conformal transformation. Cartan F(R) gravity is described based on the Riemann–Cartan geometry formulated by the vierbein-associated local Lorenz symmetry. In the Cartan formalism, the Ricci scalar R is divided into two parts: one derived from the Levi–Civita connection and the other from the torsion. Assuming the spin connection-independent matter action, we have successfully rewritten the action of Cartan F(R) gravity into the Einstein–Hilbert action and a scalar field with canonical kinetic and potential terms without any conformal transformations. red Thus, symmetries in Cartan F(R) gravity are clearly conserved. The resulting scalar–tensor theory is useful in applications of the usual slow-roll scenario. As a simple case, we employ the Starobinsky model and evaluate fluctuations in cosmological microwave background radiation.

Scenario simulation and analysis in the transboundary Yarmouk River basin using a WEAP model

ABSTRACT Water is a finite resource but an essential one. The continuously increasing demand leads to competition and conflict over limited resources. Syria, Jordan, and Israel compete over the water resources in the transboundary Yarmouk River basin where two water agreements dictate the allocation of water. The two arrangements are far from being efficient and fair while little cooperation is being made over sharing the resources that are being over-exploited. In this study, water sustainability was investigated under projected developments and trends based on the current use and allocation regime in the watershed using several scenarios. A one bucket soil moisture model was adopted and optimized in order to fully represent the ever-changing hydrology of the basin using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool. Demands along with the existing water infrastructure and their operation were modelled despite the lack of many data and the huge uncertainty in some. Simulation of business as usual scenario showed that continuing with the current use cannot be sustainable in the short and long term. The growth of both agriculture and population produced huge water shortages in all demand sectors. Under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, surface water availability and the retention of dams reduced significantly. The share of Jordan from the Yarmouk River was the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Enhancing irrigation efficiency and a more stable population growth based on the UN medium variant population projection showed improvements in water coverage within all demand sectors. Analysis of future scenarios suggests that water shortage is expected in all riparian states of the basin but can be mitigated by reducing demands.

Synergistic development of heating system decarbonization transition and large-scale renewable energy penetration: A case study of Beijing

In response to climate change, China has set the target to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The large-scale development of renewable energy and the decarbonization transition of the heating system are crucial for achieving this target. Is there a synergistic effect between the heating system's decarbonization transition and the use of large-scale renewable energy sources? What effect does this synergistic development have on the CO₂ emissions and the economic costs of an energy system? This paper conducts a case study of Beijing, China, and designs three technical path scenarios for heating system decarbonization transition in the future, namely, business as usual scenario where existing policies and regulations are applied, the electricity substitution scenario where the traditional fossil fuel heating system is replaced by electric heat pump, and the synergistic development scenario where the existing thermal power units are retrofitted to replace the consumption of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. Using the EnergyPLAN model, the hourly operation of Beijing's power and heating systems under the three scenarios are simulated. The research results are: Firstly, the proportion of local renewable energy will be over 70% in all three scenarios, and in the synergistic development scenario, the electricity and heating demand can be met by 100% renewable energy, reducing CO₂ emissions resulted from fossil fuel combustion; secondly, in view of the real-time match of power supply and demand in the power system, at times renewable energy supply would exceed demand. The rational use of the surplus renewable energy can promote further the synergistic development of decarbonization transition of heating system and renewable energy, reducing the primary energy consumption and CO₂ emissions by over 16% and 28% respectively in the future heating system; Thirdly to improve the economic benefit of a synergistic electric power and heating system, focus should be on the reduction of infrastructure construction cost rather than the reduction of fuel consumption. The proposed method can be extended to regional energy systems with more energy sectors, and can be used to formulate decarbonization transition schemes for industry, agriculture, etc.

Kink-antikink collision in the supersymmetric \U0001d7194 model

This paper investigates a model containing \U0001d7194 kinks interacting with fermions. The fermion back-reaction is included in the equations of motion, which affects the kink-antikink collisions. We show that the fermion field generates a force that can be either attractive or repulsive. Moreover, we investigate three different scenarios, which exhibit a wide variety of behaviors, including the usual scenarios observed in the \U0001d7194 model as well as the formation of two oscillons, reflection without contact, one-bounce resonance windows, and the creation of kink-antikink pairs. We also find evidence that the fermion field can store part of the energy responsible for the energy exchange mechanism.

Assessing the impacts of human disturbance on ecosystem services under multiple scenarios in karst areas of China: Insight from ecological conservation red lines effectiveness

Exploring the impacts of human disturbance on ecosystem services (ESs) in karst areas is crucial for regional sustainable management, and China’s ecological conservation red lines (ECRLs) could provide innovative solutions for global biodiversity conservation. However, it remains unclear how the implementation of ECRLs policies will change the mechanism of human disturbance on ESs. Based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent (CLUE-S) model, we projected land use changes in 2035 under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, Ecological Protection (ELP) scenario, and Future City Plan (FCP) scenario in Weining County, China. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-off (InVEST) model was used to quantify six ESs—crop production, water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, nitrogen export, habitat quality—and total ecosystem services (TES). Then, we analyzed the impacts of human disturbance changes on ESs. Our research showed that under the ELP scenario, the human disturbance index would decrease by 6.18% and increase in soil conservation (0.34%), carbon storage (21.27%), and habitat quality (9.14%) compared with 2015. A greater area of forest and grassland would lead to a reduction in cropland area, which would lower crop production by 20.76%, with water yield and nitrogen export decreasing by 6.63% and 19.91%, respectively, from 2015 to 2035. The ELP scenario would lessen trade-offs between water yield and carbon storage and habitat quality, such that water yield and nitrogen export would be similar. Meanwhile, to ensure future crop production, more attention should be given to the increase in water yield and nitrogen export caused by cropland expansion, especially in its non-karst areas. TES would increase by 9.27%, which is higher than that obtained under either the BAU or FCP scenario. Eco-environmental conservation and restoration policies were proposed to help its regional high-quality development. Our research provides a decision-making basis to evaluate the implementation effects of ECRLs policies in karst areas and inform the directed management of ecosystems by the government.

Editorial: academic peer reviewers – The good, bad, and the ugly

Editorial: academic peer reviewers – The good, bad, and the ugly

Multifrequency Observations of Postmidnight Ionospheric Irregularities From an Anomaly Crest Location

AbstractThe paper reports occurrences of postmidnight to early morning ionospheric depletions in total electron content (TEC) observed using the Low Earth Orbiting satellite beacon from Calcutta (22.57°N, 88.36°E geographic, and 32°N magnetic dip) situated around the northern crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the Indian longitude sector for the period 2015–2016. These results are novel and contrary to the usual scenario of equatorial ionospheric irregularities being dominant during the early evening to pre‐midnight hours of equinoctial months. The TEC depletions, commonly called “bite‐outs,” exhibit amplitudes of 1–2.5 TECU, with maximum depletion found near the northern crest of the EIA around subionospheric coordinates 25.8°N and 82.2°E. These bite‐outs exhibited seasonal variabilities, with maximum occurrences found during local summer months. The observed TEC depletions during postmidnight hours point toward irregularities, which are not generated over the magnetic equator and drifted along magnetic field lines. A case study of the observation of these ionospheric disturbances has also been presented across a spectrum of frequencies, namely 150 and 400 MHz (Low Earth Orbit satellites), 250 MHz (Geostationary satellites), and 1.5 GHz (GPS—Medium Earth Orbit satellites) to establish the presence of irregularities of different scale sizes even during postmidnight hours.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategies in the Transportation and Solid Waste Sector in Cilacap Regency

Every year, population growth in Cilacap Regency inevitably results in various impacts in various fields, including transportation and solid waste. The number of motorized vehicles in the Cilacap Regency has increased from 588,283 units in 2017 to 714,533 units in 2020. On the other hand, solid waste generation in Cilacap Regency in 2020 reached 0.22 tons per capita per year. Both activities can potentially reduce the air quality of the Cilacap Regency. One of the causes of the decline in air quality is CO2, CH4, and N2O gases, which can cause global warming. This study aims to inventory and project GHG emission loads, determine mitigation strategies and design regulations related to GHG emission reduction in the transportation and solid waste sector in Cilacap Regency. The method used to inventory GHG emissions in this research is the 2006 IPCC method with Tier 1 and Tier 2 accuracy. Then it is projected for the next ten years with a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. To determine the selected reduction strategy using SWOT and QSPM analysis. The inventory results and projected GHG emissions in the solid waste sector in 2030 are 109.29 Gg CO2e. 4 GHG emission reduction programs in the solid waste sector could reduce up to 29.49% Gg CO2-e in 2030. Then the BAU scenario GHG emissions in the transportation sector in 2030 reached 21,417 Gg CO2e. The six proposed scenarios were able to produce a percentage of GHG reduction of 7 65% in 2030 or 1,638,409 Tons of CO2e or 1,638 Gg CO2e from 2021-to 2030 with a priority strategy for reducing GHG emissions is increasing pollution buffers by building green open space and non-motorized pathways with a reduced rate of 2%.

Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Evaluating the impacts of land-use change (LUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) is necessary for regional sustainable development, especially for the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), an ecologically sensitive and fragile region. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LUC on the ESs and provide valuable information for regional planning and management in the FPENC. To accomplish this, we assessed LUC in the FPENC from 2010 to 2020 and simulated land-use patterns in 2030 under three plausible scenarios: the business as usual scenario (BAUS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then, we quantified five ESs (including crop production, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage) for 2020–2030 and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies among ESs in all scenarios. The results show that FPENC experienced expanding farming land and built-up land throughout 2010–2020. Under the BAUS and EDS from 2000 to 2030, especially EDS, the increase in farming land and built-up land will continue. As a result, crop production and water yield will increase, while soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage will decrease. In contrast, EPS will increase soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage at the cost of a decline in crop production and water yield. These results can provide effective reference information for future regional planning and management in the farming–pastoral ecotone.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, China

Rapid urbanization and human activities enhanced threats to the degradation of various ecosystem services in modern urban agglomerations. This study explored the response of ecosystem service values (ESVs) to land use changes and the trade-offs among various ESVs in urban agglomerations under different future development scenarios. The patch-general land use simulation (PLUS) model and ESV calculation method were used to simulate the ESVs of Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration under the Business As Usual scenario (BAU), Ecological Conservation scenario (EC), and Economic Development scenario (ED) in 2030. Global and local Moran’s I were used to detect the spatial distribution pattern, and correlation analysis was used to measure trade-offs among ecosystem services. The results showed that: (1) The simulated result of land use in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration showed high accuracy compared to the actual observed result of the same period, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.912. From 2000 to 2030, land use changes were significant, with the rapid decrease in farmland and an increase in construction land. The area of woodland increased significantly under the EC scenario, and the area of construction land increased rapidly under the ED scenario. (2) The decline of total ESV was CNY 218 million from 2000 to 2020, and ESVs remained the downward trend in the BAU and ED scenarios compared to 2020, decreasing by CNY 156 million and CNY 4731 million, respectively. An increasing trend of ESV showed under the EC scenario, with a growth of CNY 849 million. (3) Significant spatial autocorrelation showed in Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration, as the Global Moran’s I were all positive and the p-values were zero. The ESV grids mainly showed “High-High” clusters in the mountainous areas and “Low-Low” clusters in plain areas. Except for food production, a majority of ecosystem services exhibited positive synergistic relationships. In future planning and development, policymakers should focus on the coordinated development of the urbanization process and ecological preservation to build an ecological safety pattern.

Modeling the Next Decade of Energy Sustainability: A Case of a Developing Country

The development of any country is closely related to its ability to provide access to electricity for productive labor. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have low electrification rates for commercial, industrial and residential consumers. This study focuses on Nigeria, which has one of the largest populations and economies in sub-Saharan Africa. Although Nigeria possesses abundant renewable energy resources that can increase electricity generation, it has suffered a significant setback in electricity generation. However, for Nigeria to become one of the leading industrialized countries by 2030, access to clean, reliable, and sustainable energy sources is vital (Vision 20: 2030). This study assesses the possibility of Nigeria developing and transitioning to the use of various energy sources. Additionally, this study evaluates greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation plans and future trends in energy sustainability through multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), considering the technical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions of the sustainability structure. A total of twelve (12) sustainability indexes were taken into consideration; these consist of two (2) technical, three (3) social, three (3) environmental, and four (4) economic indicators. A scenario-based software called Long-range Energy Alternative Plan (LEAP) was used to integrate the analysis criteria and forecast a sustainable energy generation mix for the future. It considered three scenarios, namely: the business as usual scenario (BAU); renewables, natural gas and biomass scenario (RNB); and renewables and coal scenario (REC). It was concluded that the renewables, natural gas, and biomass scenario (RNB) is the best scenario to solve Nigeria’s energy problem based on the aim of the study.

Effective dynamics of spin-1/2 particles in a rainbow universe

In this study, we mainly focus our attention on discussing exact solutions of the Dirac equation in a topologically trivial Gödel-type space–time in the framework of rainbow gravity (RG). On this purpose, we obtain exact analytical solutions and the corresponding energy spectrum of the Dirac particles for the considered cosmological model. In a further step, we scrutinize the results by considering rainbow scenarios and evaluate the corresponding energy spectra from a graphical perspective. We investigate how the energy spectrum is altered by rainbow scenarios compared with the solutions obtained with the usual scenario of general relativity theory (GRT).

Magnetic freeze-out and anomalous Hall effect in ZrTe5

The ultra-quantum limit is achieved when a magnetic field confines an electron gas in its lowest spin-polarised Landau level. Here we show that in this limit, electron doped ZrTe5 shows a metal-insulator transition followed by a sign change of the Hall and Seebeck effects at low temperature. We attribute this transition to a magnetic freeze-out of charge carriers on the ionized impurities. The reduction of the charge carrier density gives way to an anomalous Hall response of the spin-polarised electrons. This behavior, at odds with the usual magnetic freeze-out scenario, occurs in this Dirac metal because of its tiny Fermi energy, extremely narrow band gap and a large g-factor. We discuss the different possible sources (intrinsic or extrinsic) for this anomalous Hall contribution.

A New Approach to a Self-Organizing Federation of MQTT Brokers

In the Publish/Subscribe (PS) communication paradigm clients producing content (i.e., publishers) send it to a broker, which relays the content to consumers (i.e., subscribers). Communication can happen asynchronously, leaving all the hurdles to the server/broker. MQ Telemetry Transport (MQTT) is the most used P/S protocol in designing IoT applications. The usual MQTT scenario comprises a single broker, making it a potential bottleneck and a single point of failure. Clustering of brokers is the typical approach for scaling MQTT, usually restricting deployment to a single administrative domain. The federation of autonomous brokers is a more flexible approach for scaling the MQTT protocol, with just one representative self-organizing protocol at the moment. We present a new variant for such protocol, providing a well-structured mechanism for building and orchestrating the federation of brokers. The main contribution of this study is to offer a feasible solution for deploying the MQTT federation without requiring critical changes to regular clients. By following the topic naming conventions, clients are unaware they rely on a federation of brokers. To provide a glimpse of our solution in action, a case study demonstrates that the protocol can easily provide flexible reliability with low complexity.

Relativistic Bose-Einstein condensate in the rainbow gravity

In this paper, we study the effects of a modified theory of gravity —the rainbow gravity— on the relativistic Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC). We initially discuss some formal aspects of the model in order to compute the corrections to the relevant quantities of the condensate. Following, we evaluate the generating functional from which we obtain some thermodynamic parameters. Then we calculate the corrected critical temperature T c that sets the relativistic Bose-Einstein condensate considering the three principal rainbow functions, finding, in addition, a phenomenological upper bound for the parameters involved in the model. Finally, we discuss how harder it is for the particles at an arbitrary temperature T < T c to enter the condensed state compared to the usual scenario, i.e., without rainbow gravity.