Synergistic development of heating system decarbonization transition and large-scale renewable energy penetration: A case study of Beijing

Abstract

In response to climate change, China has set the target to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The large-scale development of renewable energy and the decarbonization transition of the heating system are crucial for achieving this target. Is there a synergistic effect between the heating system's decarbonization transition and the use of large-scale renewable energy sources? What effect does this synergistic development have on the CO₂ emissions and the economic costs of an energy system? This paper conducts a case study of Beijing, China, and designs three technical path scenarios for heating system decarbonization transition in the future, namely, business as usual scenario where existing policies and regulations are applied, the electricity substitution scenario where the traditional fossil fuel heating system is replaced by electric heat pump, and the synergistic development scenario where the existing thermal power units are retrofitted to replace the consumption of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. Using the EnergyPLAN model, the hourly operation of Beijing's power and heating systems under the three scenarios are simulated. The research results are: Firstly, the proportion of local renewable energy will be over 70% in all three scenarios, and in the synergistic development scenario, the electricity and heating demand can be met by 100% renewable energy, reducing CO₂ emissions resulted from fossil fuel combustion; secondly, in view of the real-time match of power supply and demand in the power system, at times renewable energy supply would exceed demand. The rational use of the surplus renewable energy can promote further the synergistic development of decarbonization transition of heating system and renewable energy, reducing the primary energy consumption and CO₂ emissions by over 16% and 28% respectively in the future heating system; Thirdly to improve the economic benefit of a synergistic electric power and heating system, focus should be on the reduction of infrastructure construction cost rather than the reduction of fuel consumption. The proposed method can be extended to regional energy systems with more energy sectors, and can be used to formulate decarbonization transition schemes for industry, agriculture, etc.