Assessing the impacts of human disturbance on ecosystem services under multiple scenarios in karst areas of China: Insight from ecological conservation red lines effectiveness

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Exploring the impacts of human disturbance on ecosystem services (ESs) in karst areas is crucial for regional sustainable management, and China’s ecological conservation red lines (ECRLs) could provide innovative solutions for global biodiversity conservation. However, it remains unclear how the implementation of ECRLs policies will change the mechanism of human disturbance on ESs. Based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent (CLUE-S) model, we projected land use changes in 2035 under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, Ecological Protection (ELP) scenario, and Future City Plan (FCP) scenario in Weining County, China. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-off (InVEST) model was used to quantify six ESs—crop production, water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, nitrogen export, habitat quality—and total ecosystem services (TES). Then, we analyzed the impacts of human disturbance changes on ESs. Our research showed that under the ELP scenario, the human disturbance index would decrease by 6.18% and increase in soil conservation (0.34%), carbon storage (21.27%), and habitat quality (9.14%) compared with 2015. A greater area of forest and grassland would lead to a reduction in cropland area, which would lower crop production by 20.76%, with water yield and nitrogen export decreasing by 6.63% and 19.91%, respectively, from 2015 to 2035. The ELP scenario would lessen trade-offs between water yield and carbon storage and habitat quality, such that water yield and nitrogen export would be similar. Meanwhile, to ensure future crop production, more attention should be given to the increase in water yield and nitrogen export caused by cropland expansion, especially in its non-karst areas. TES would increase by 9.27%, which is higher than that obtained under either the BAU or FCP scenario. Eco-environmental conservation and restoration policies were proposed to help its regional high-quality development. Our research provides a decision-making basis to evaluate the implementation effects of ECRLs policies in karst areas and inform the directed management of ecosystems by the government.