Usual Scenario Research Articles

Sustainable aviation fuels and imminent technologies - CO2 emissions evolution towards 2050

Nowadays, concerns about rising emissions and climate change have raised the issue of decarbonization. Several approaches have been promoted in the aeronautical sector to reduce CO2 emissions. The present work provides quantitative data to support decision-making for the first pillar of International Air Transport Association (IATA) strategy to mitigate aviation climate impact. This strategy comprises improving aircraft technology and deploying sustainable low-carbon fuels. The most promising technologies for an imminent application are new engine architecture and natural laminar flow. On the other hand, efforts have been put to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) reaching the point where some methods for the production of alternative jet fuel are already approved by ASTM. Therefore, the present work quantifies the future reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 in the aeronautical sector with these strategies. For this purpose, two methodologies are used, a numerical model to calculate fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from the global air transport fleet. For the SAF analysis, it is developed an approach that considers, besides the SAF production, the feedstocks, and the production pathway. Two cases and three scenarios represent the technological improvements and quantify the effects of new aircraft concepts and technologies on future CO2 emissions. For the SAF analysis, four scenarios and two conditions assess the different production capacities and feedstocks. The combined effect of technologies with SAF is considered verifying if the goals proposed by IATA, carbon-neutral growth from 2020, and a reduction of 50% in net emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 levels are achieved. The assessment results reveal that the goals cannot be met only with the combined action of imminent aircraft technologies and the use of alternative fuels. Carbon-neutral growth is only reached when it is considered the combined effect of technologies with the scenario where the amount of SAF introduced is higher (an increase of 15% annually between 2030 and 2050). However, this carbon-neutral growth is only possible to start in 2040. Imminent aircraft technologies can reduce up to 15% in CO2 emissions when compared to the Business as Usual scenario. The different feedstocks used in each process to produce SAF do not have a considerable impact on reducing CO2 emissions, the maximum difference registered between each condition was 1.47%.

Effects of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment effects in South Africa

This paper assesses the impact of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment in South Africa. The cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD) is utilized to project two energy mix scenarios and their associated employment implications at provincial level. While the business as usual (BAU) scenario shows a continuous use of coal capacity in the South African power sector until 2050, the 2 °C scenario exhibits a phase-out of coal by 2040 and a higher diversification of power generation dominated by solar and wind capacity.The increase in renewable energy sources (RES) generates employment in the energy sector which can partially substitute the decline in coal related jobs in affected regions. However, it is not certain that the employment created by RES will directly benefit those negatively impacted by the transition. The results of a sensitivity of the 2 °C scenario provide a near cost-optimal energy system in line with a just transition towards a 2 °C world that limits the employment impacts for former coal regions. Thus, a technological transition from a coal- to a RES-based system needs comprehensive plans for job-transfers, policy formulations, support mechanisms and structural transformation.

Sustainable land preparation for farmer-managed lowland agriculture in Indonesia

In almost all forms of agriculture and farming practice, land clearing is the initial step. In Indonesia, in general, the most cost effective means of clearing land is through the use of fire. However, this use of fire often results in uncontrolled outbreaks, particularly in lowland areas especially and during prolonged dry seasons. In recent years, these uncontrolled fire outbreaks have had a catastrophic environmental, social and economic impact. The Indonesian government has expressed a strong commitment to controlling these outbreaks, as demonstrated by a broad set of laws, regulations, decrees, guidelines, and directives to control and manage land and forest fire. However, despite these measures, the occurrence of widespread, high-intensity fire outbreaks is still unacceptably high. This study assessed land-clearing techniques associated with a low risk of fire outbreaks, comparing the costs associated with a range of these techniques. It then analyzed intervention options that would involve the adoption of these techniques by farmers. These low-risk techniques included: (i) zero-burning practices involving traditional machinery and farmer groups; (ii) zero-burning involving modern machinery and partnerships with government agencies/private enterprises; (iii) controlled burning; and (iv) the chemical removal of biomass using herbicides. The study finds that the costs for all four of these options are higher than with land-clearing techniques that use fire alone. However, it also showed that the cost implications for farmers could be mitigated by taking a more holistic view of farming practices as a system, rather than focusing only on land-clearing practices in isolation. It found that when land-clearing practices that involve low risks of fire outbreak are combined with good agricultural practices (GAP), farmers could still achieve higher levels of profitability and productivity than under a business as usual (BAU) scenario. The study produced scenarios involving BAU practices; land clearing without fire and with BAU practices; and land clearing without fire and with good agricultural practices (GAP) for four agricultural commodities (oil palm, cocoa, rubber, and paddy). It found that the return on land (NPV) in the case of the scenario involving land clearing without fire and with GAP was still higher than under the BAU scenario, except in the case of rubber, with which the NPV was higher in the scenario with modern machinery and GAP. The study concludes that a systems approach is necessary to effectively control fire outbreaks. Government programs should be designed and implemented on the basis of this systems approach with the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, including through partnerships with the private sector operators, to effectively control the risk of fire outbreaks while at the same time supporting farmers' livelihoods by ensuring that they are enabled to generate higher levels of productivity and profitability from their land.

Comparing different approaches for assessing the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on urban air quality in Reading, UK

Many studies investigated the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on urban air quality, but their adopted approaches have varied and there is no consensus as to which approach should be used. In this paper we compare three of the main approaches and assess their performance using both estimated and measured data from several air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) in Reading, Berkshire UK. The approaches are: (1) Sequential approach – comparing pre-lockdown and lockdown periods 2020; (2) Parallel approach – comparing 2019 and 2020 for the equivalent time of the lockdown period; and (3) Machine learning modelling approach – predicting pollution levels for the lockdown period using business as usual (BAU) scenario and comparing with the observations. The parallel and machine learning approaches resulted in relative higher reductions and both showed strong correlation (0.97) and less error with each other. The sequential approach showed less reduction in NO and NOx, showed positive gain in PM10 and NO2 at most of the sites and demonstrated weak correlation with the other two approaches, and is not recommended for such analysis. Overall, the sequential approach showed −14, +4, −32, and + 56% change, the parallel approach showed −46, −43, −43 and + 7% change, and the machine learning approach showed −47, −44, −38 and + 5% change in NOx, NO2, NO and PM10 concentrations, respectively. The pollution roses demonstrated that the UK received easterly polluted winds from the central and eastern Europe, promoting secondary particulates and O3 formation during the lockdown. Changes in pollutant concentrations vary both in space and time according to the approach used, environment type of the monitoring site and the data type (e.g., deweathered vs. raw data). Therefore, the reported results (here or elsewhere) should be viewed in light of these factors before making any conclusion.

Environmental and techno-economic assessment of power system expansion for projected demand levels in Kenya using TIMES modeling framework

This study develops a new national-scale bottom-up energy system optimization model called Kenya-TIMES. The model evaluates the implication of greenhouse gas emission's reduction on the techno-economic and environmental evolution of Kenya's power system under three government-projected electricity demand levels, which covers the 2020–2045 period. To assess the implications of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures, a business as usual and a carbon emission cap scenarios were developed. The model shows that energy security can be achieved under the two scenarios, and for all the three demand levels. The generation mix suggested by the model is dominated by renewable sources under the carbon emission cap scenario compared to the business as usual scenario. The higher share of renewable technologies under the carbon emission cap scenario results in lower emission but increased electricity cost. Consequently, to meet its emission reduction targets, the Kenyan government need to enact and implement policies that will enhance deployment of renewable energy technologies. The findings indicate that the Kenyan government should prioritize developing geothermal and hydropower resources in the short- to medium-term, which can provide affordable and secure energy while limiting GHG emissions.

Sustainable alternative futures for urban India: the resource, energy, and emissions implications of urban form scenarios

Abstract India’s rapid urbanisation underscores the need to balance growing consumption patterns, development goals, and climate commitments. The scenarios presented in this paper were created using our Sustainable Alternative Futures for India (SAFARI) model, a system dynamics model that simulates interlinkages between sectors in India and their competition for resources and energy at the national scale. This study presents insights from scenarios based on SAFARI’s housing and transport modules, as well as synergies and trade-offs with the industries, water, land, and agriculture modules. It focuses on urban form scenarios and their implications for energy, emissions, and resources. Using a vertically compact residential built form and less energy-intensive materials (such as aerated autoclaved concrete blocks), coupled with greater uptake of public transport and shorter trip lengths, was found to be most beneficial overall. This scenario could reduce residential land consumption by 85%, particulate emissions three-fold, embodied emissions of construction by 11%–13%, and total space cooling energy by 31%–46%, compared to the business as usual scenario. Overall, this scenario could offer a 9.1%–9.6% reduction in cumulative economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions between 2020 and 2050. An urban sprawl scenario (with longer trip lengths) could have the opposite effect, impinging on agricultural land and furthermore, exacerbating food security concerns by 2050. The paper concludes with future research directions, which include exploring the combined potential effects of urban heat islands, alternative materials, and compact urban form on space cooling energy in India.

Introducing a Method for Calculating Carbon Emission Reduction on the Seagrass Ecosystem for Indonesia’s Low Carbon Development Initiative

The increase of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) since the industrial revolution era affects the global carbon cycle and triggers climate changes. Indonesia has ratified the Paris Agreement and declared the emission reduction for climate action (Sustainable Development Goal 13) up to 29% (independently) or 41% (with international support) in 2030 relative to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. The effort to achieve this target is implemented on Low Carbon Development Initiative (LCDI) starting in 2020. LCDI adopts marine and fisheries as one of the implementing sectors that focus on blue carbon. To implement the activities as part of the carbon emission reduction within the LCDI, we have to establish a calculation method that should be measurable, reportable, and verifiable (MRV). The present article introduces the MRV method for calculating the carbon emission reduction for the Conservation/Protection Seagrass Ecosystem’s climate change mitigation activity on Marine Protected Area (MPA). We present how to calculate the baseline emission (business as usual), emission leakage when implementing the activity, and emission reduction. A case study on seagrass meadows of Kepulauan Seribu MPA is presented for the trial of the introduced method and formula. Using the proposed method is reliable enough to estimate carbon emission reduction from seagrass conservation activity within the MPA. We can calculate the carbon emission will reduce 4.35 tC relative to the BAU on Kepulauan Seribu MPA by 2030.

Benefits of a regional co-processing scheme: The case of steel/iron and cement industries in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia

South-East Asia has one of the highest economic growth rates in the world. Although industrial activity is rapidly expanding, production practices to increase material circularity and reduce environmental impact have yet to see sufficient progress. This article analyses the environmental benefits of implementing a regionally based co-processing scheme between the iron-steel and cement industries of three emergent South-East Asian economies: Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. Vietnam, already ranked as the 8th largest cement producer, can be a crucial contributor to a more symbiotic exchange of wastes with regional neighbours. A plan to increase the co-processed iron/steel slag at cement facilities (from 1 to 10 per cent) would translate into substantial gains in material circularity (0.83–8.33 M. tons of raw material savings per year) and carbon emission reductions in the region (0.95–9.07 Mt CO2, i.e. 1.6 to 15.6 per cent of business as usual scenarios equal to reductions of 6 per cent of the total emissions). This scheme could provide further benefits over a nationally self-oriented strategy, revealed by the levels of material exchange within the countries. However, several considerations are essential to make such a scheme feasible. We discuss these critical factors, which are fundamental for a prospective join industrialisation strategy.

LEAP simulated economic evaluation of sustainable scenarios to fulfill the regional electricity demand in Pakistan

Some planning problems in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain, and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for simulating Pakistan’s electrical system from 2016 to 2040. It has forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS), and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analysed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower generation than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Respiratory performance of humans exposed to moderate levels of carbon dioxide.

In a business as usual scenario, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2 ) could reach 950 parts per million (ppm) by 2100. Indoor CO2 concentrations will rise consequently, given its dependence on atmospheric CO2 levels. If buildings are ventilated following current standards in 2100, indoor CO2 concentration could be over 1300ppm, depending on specific ventilation codes. Such exposure to CO2 could have physiological and psychological effects on building occupants. We conducted a randomized, within-subject study, examining the physiological effects on the respiratory functions of 15 persons. We examined three exposures, each 150min long, with CO2 of: 900ppm (reference), 1450ppm (decreased ventilation), and 1450ppm (reference condition with added pure CO2 ). We measured respiratory parameters with capnometry and forced vital capacity (FVC) tests. End-tidal CO2 and respiration rates did not significantly differ across the three exposures. Parameters measured using FVC decreased significantly from the start to the end of exposure only at the reduced ventilation condition (p<0.04, large effect size). Hence, poor ventilation likely affects respiratory parameters. This effect is probably not caused by increased CO2 alone and rather by other pollutants-predominantly human bioeffluents in this work-whose concentrations increased as a result.

Future energy planning to maximize renewable energy share for the south Caspian Sea climate

In recent decades global warming has turned into an international concern. Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases (GHG) are produced through burning fossil fuel leading to an increase in the global warming effect; thus, GHG reduction contributes to mitigating climate change. Utilizing renewable energies, increasing efficiency of and capacity factor (CF) of existing power plants, and recycling waste energy in various industries are convenient solutions to improve the energy systems performance to reduce fossil fuel consumption, leading to GHG emission. So, there is a substantial need for planning and evaluating the energy systems in which various technologies are used, technically and economically. Theis study's main objectives are utilizing the capacity of renewable energies such as biomass, wind, solar, hydropower, and enhancement of CF and efficiency of the power plants in the Mazandaran region in the south of the Caspian Sea. The energy system considered for the region is modeled and analyzed by six scenarios in this paper. The results indicated that the share of renewable energies in electricity production could be increased from 5.4% to 47.7%. The results of cost analysis show that by applying the sixth scenario, which is integrated policies of increasing RER share and improvement of efficiency and capacity factor. The trends of total annual cost, CO2 emission, and fossil fuel consumption are reduced compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. The average cost saved by this scenario is about 220 MUSD/year. The average amount of fossil fuels and CO2 emission save are 11 TWh/year and 2.438 Mt/year between 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Land use land cover change and the resilience of social-ecological systems in a sub-region in South west Cameroon.

The old paradigm of horizontal expansion of agricultural land and built-up areas over highland and lowland ecosystems remains highly prevalent in Cameroon, causing significant changes in LULC and undermining the resilience and sustainability of social-ecological systems. We analysed satellite imagery of 1986 and 2018 to examine the extent and spatial patterns of LULCC in Fako sub-region of Cameroon. In addition, we explored the likelihood of LULCC and magnitude of impact of the drivers and predictors of LULCC in the sub-region by engaging 25 stakeholders in a focus group survey. Other cultivated areas of cropland, built-up, oil palm, and banana plantation covers increased by 21,360ha (10.5%), 3152ha (1.6%), 5721ha (2.8%), and 1823ha (0.9%), while dense forest, rubberand tea plantation covers decreased by - 44,945ha (- 22.1%), - 15,557ha (- 7.7%), and - 110ha (- 0.1%), respectively, from 1986 to 2018. Most of the deforestation and LULCC was caused by expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland by smallholders, contrary to the widely publicised narrative of agro-industrial and built-up areas expansion. The spatial pattern of LULCC showed that expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland and agro-industrial plantations were highest in the north and east zones, respectively, while expansion of built-up areas and decrease in agro-industrial plantation covers were highest in the central, south and western coastal zones of Fako division. The variations in the spatial patterns of LULCC between the sub-divisions are attributed to differences in rates of population growth and urbanisation, topography, size of farming population, proportion of cultivable land, socio-economic opportunities, and strength and resilience of local economy. The presence of the Mount Cameroon (4095m), with high value forests, endemism, and conservation attractiveness restricted increased LULCC with elevation, while LULCC increased with nearness to the sea and national road networks. The likelihood of change from one LULC to oil palm plantation, banana plantation, and other cultivated areas and from rubber plantation, dense forest, lowland grassland to other land uses was 95% and 90%, respectively. Population growth, agricultural and farmland expansion, and infrastructural development were ranked asthe three most important drivers of degradation under the business as usual scenario, while sustainable land management, good governance, and reforestation were ranked as thethree most important predictors of LULCC reduction under the green economy scenario. In general, production and living space functions significantly increased at the expense of ecological land cover. Prioritising and increasing the legal protection of the mountain and coastal land-boundary ecosystems while providing for production and living land areinvaluable for the sustainability of the social-ecological systems in the western highlands of Cameroon.

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada’s western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (∼10 ha) 10- to 20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models to project change in habitat availability from 2020 to 2050 under six alternative scenarios (three management × two fire alternatives). The simulation models projected that the cumulative effects of land use conversion, forest harvesting, and fire will reduce the area of olive-sided flycatcher habitat by 16–18% under Business As Usual management scenarios and by 11–13% under scenarios that include protection of 30% of the land base. Scenarios limiting the size of all clearcuts to ≤10 ha resulted in a median habitat loss of 4–6%, but projections were highly variable. Under all three management alternatives, a 50% increase in fire frequency (expected due to climate change) exacerbated habitat loss. The projected losses of habitat in western boreal forest, even with an increase in protected areas, imply that reversing the ongoing population declines of olive-sided flycatcher and other migratory birds will require attention to forest management beyond protected areas. Further work should examine the effects of multiple stressors on the demographic mechanisms driving change in aerial insectivore populations, including stressors on the wintering grounds in South America, and should aim to adapt the design of protected areas and forest management policies to projected climate-driven increases in the size and frequency of wildfires.

Future Precipitation Scenarios over Italy

To support the development of national adaptation policies and measures addressing climate change impacts over Italy, this work aims to analyze projected changes in mean temperatures and precipitations, and extreme events such as droughts and floods, highlighting some local trends in the different Italian regions that have been little considered to date. The investigations are made on the basis of a set of high-resolution Euro-CORDEX models (horizontal resolution 0.11°, about 12 km) to infer quantitative assessments about the danger of climate changes under three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): business as usual scenario, i.e., without a reduction in green-house gas emissions (RCP 8.5), medium stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5) and mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6). After filtering the models with limited performances in reconstructing the current climate, the multi-model climate change scenarios were characterized by comparing the ensemble mean values computed for the base-line period (1971–2000) with those elaborated for the short- (2021–2050), medium- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100). Two WMO ETCCDI indices were considered to investigate climate extremes: Consecutive Dry Days and extreme precipitations. Despite some uncertainties (related to discrepancies among the models), drought conditions and extreme precipitations will likely exacerbate in the coming decades without mitigation (RCP 8.5). Such conditions will be less critical if partial mitigation actions will be undertaken (RCP 4.5) and are expected to be significantly reduced with decarbonization policies (RCP 2.6).

Opportunities for forest sector emissions reductions: a state-level analysis.

The forest sector can play a significant role in climate change mitigation. We evaluated forest sector carbon trends and potential mitigation scenarios in Vermont using a systems-based modeling framework that accounts for net emissions from all forest sector components. These components comprise (1) the forest ecosystem, including land-use change, (2) harvested wood products (HWP), and (3) substitution effects associated with using renewable wood-based products and fuels in place of more emission-intensive materials and fossil fuel-based energy. We assessed baseline carbon trends from 1995 through 2050 using a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Emission reductions associated with different forest management and HWP scenarios were evaluated relative to the BAU scenario from 2020 to 2050. We estimated uncertainty for each forest sector component and used a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the distribution of cumulative total mitigation for each scenario relative to baseline. Our analysis indicates that the strength of the forest sector carbon sink in Vermont has been declining and will continue to decline over coming decades under the BAU scenario. However, several scenarios evaluated here could be effective in reducing emissions and enhancing carbon uptake. Shifting HWP to longer-lived commodities resulted in a 14% reduction in net cumulative emissions by 2050, the largest reduction of all scenarios. A scenario that combined extending harvest rotations, utilizing additional harvest residues for bioenergy, and increasing forest productivity resulted in a 12% reduction in net cumulative emissions. Shifting commodities from pulp and paper to bioenergy showed a 7.3% reduction in emissions. In contrast, shortening rotations to increase harvests for bioenergy use resulted in a 5.5% increase in emissions. In summary, model simulations suggest that net emissions could be reduced by up to 14% relative to BAU, depending on the management and HWP-use scenario. Combining multiple scenarios could further enhance reductions. However, realizing the full climate mitigation potential of these forests may be challenging due to socioeconomic barriers to implementation, as well as alternative management objectives that must be considered along with carbon sequestration.

Decarbonizing the electricity system in Sumatra region using nuclear and renewable energy based power generation

The Indonesian national energy policy mandates that the new and renewable energy in 2025 reaches a share of 23% and in 2050 rises a share of 31% in the primary energy mix. The energy mix by types is further detailed in the national energy plan (RUEN). Since Indonesia is committed to participating in efforts to mitigate global climate change, the energy sector is expected to contribute to the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of up to 29% (unconditional) and 41% (conditional) under Business as Usual (BAU) by 2030. The use of nuclear power and renewable energy-based power generations can reduce GHG emissions in the electricity sector. Sumatra region is a potential region for the development of renewable energy. In this study, various options were made to reduce GHG emissions by utilizing nuclear power and renewable energy-based power generations. Assuming that electricity planning in the Sumatra region, as stated in the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) from PLN as a Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, then an alternative scenario can be made by replacing coal power generation using low-carbon power generation. Hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear power generations are prospective options as they have large capacity per unit. At the same time, the utilization of other renewable energy sources still face some challenges due to the intermittent generation. The east coast regions of Sumatra that do not have the potential hydropower and geothermal sources, suit for nuclear power generation.

Numerical assessment of climate change impact on the hydrological regime of a small Mediterranean river, Lesvos Island, Greece

Abstract Frequency of flash floods and droughts in the Mediterranean climate zone is expected to rise in the coming years due to change of its climate. The assessment of the climate change impact at a basin scale is essential for developing mitigation and adaptation plans. This study analyses the variation of the hydrologic regime of a small Mediterranean river (the Kalloni river in Lesvos Island, Greece) by the examination of possible future climate change scenarios. The hydrologic response of the basin was simulated based on Hydrologic Modeling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS). Weather Generator version 6 from the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS-WG 6.0) was utilized to forecast climate data from 2021 to 2080. These forecasted climate data were then assigned as weather inputs to HEC-HMS to downscale the climate predictions of five large-scale general circulation models (GCMs) for three possible emission scenarios (such as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The alteration of the Kalloni hydrologic regime is evaluated by comparing GCMs based estimates of future streamflow and evapotranspiration with business as usual (BaU) scenario. Variation was noted in seasonal and in annual scale forecasting of long-term average discharges, which show increasing trend in autumn and decreasing in summer and there is observed a general upward trend of actual evapotranspiration losses.

Redistribution of Sumatran orangutan in the Leuser ecosystem due to dispersal constraints and climate change

Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii) is one of the great apes that lives in Asia. The species’ population suffered a significant reduction due to altered habitat and climate shifting; thus, this species is critically endangered (CR) based on The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list. Nowadays, the vast majority of the species only occur in the Leuser ecosystem (LE). The population estimation of Sumatran orangutan towards ground-truthing methods still became a challenge to carry out conservation planning; therefore, the ecological niche modeling (ENM) will be a gan excellent alternative to evaluate this species’ population dynamics. Here we present the potential distribution changes of the Sumatran orangutan in the LE under mitigation and business as usual (BAU) scenarios of climate change. This study also conducted the effects of environmental constraint (i.e., deforestation and rivers) on the Sumatran orangutan’s future dispersal in LE. We collected the Sumatran orangutan occurrences data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and literature reviews of orangutan inventory in the Leuser ecosystem. The ENM and dispersal constraints have been conducted using ENMTML and MigClim R package script-codes, respectively. This study provides novel information regarding future orangutan distribution.

Evaluating Social Policy Scenarios for Tourism Development of Barú Island (Colombia) Using Structural Qualitative Modeling

Social policies are commonly defined from scattered knowledge. It is hard to find examples of social policy design based on a systemic perspective, and even harder with formal modeling support. To advance in filling this gap, we studied the case of the tourism development on Barú Island. In this place, tourism is a critical economic activity based on local ecosystem services, but it is being developed without planning and outside of a sustainability focus. We build a qualitative model of the social structure of tourism development that is taking place in the locality. Model building was based on experiences and opinions of local stakeholders, gathered through participatory procedures. Using our model, we projected the future states of the system, assuming several hypothetical public policy scenarios. More specifically, we evaluated the system responses to: (a) a multivariate business–as–usual (BAU) scenario, and (b) two multivariate aprioristic scenarios, pointed to improve expected outcomes. These scenarios were based on the opinions of both stakeholders and experts. We also tested: (c) simple (univariate) aposterioristic scenarios, built from the structural analysis of the system using the sensitivity matrix. Finally, we included: (d) a trivial (and unattainable) scenario, in which every model variable was increased or decreased at convenience. The outcomes of our scenario analysis were evaluated using four different weight sets applied to the projected states of system variables, representing different strategic priorities: social-economic, environmental, mixed, and plain. Our results show that the projected outcomes differ among the tested scenarios and the strategic priority to be adopted. However, in all cases the BAU scenario was markedly the worst. For every strategic priority, some simple aposterioristic scenarios performed slightly better, as compared to the more complex aprioristic ones, and even better than the trivial scenario. This result was more noticeable under the plain strategy. We conclude that aposterioristic scenarios derived from the sensitivity matrix of the qualitative model, particularly decreasing migration risk and increasing governance strength, are the best candidates for tourism policy-making in Barú among the evaluated alternatives. These results should be put in its context and adapted before they can be transferred to other study-cases. Our findings suggest that social policy-making can benefit from structural qualitative modeling. In particular, this approach may give analytical support to the selection of intervention measures from a structural perspective, based on defined strategic priorities. For this purpose, however, the model itself and the outcomes obtained from its analysis should be updated steadily.

Exploring sustainability potentials in vineyards through LCA? Evidence from farming practices in South Africa

PurposeFollowing the urgency to curb environmental impacts across all sectors globally, this is the first life cycle assessment of different wine grape farming practices suitable for commercial conventional production in South Africa, aiming at better understanding the potentials to reduce adverse effects on the environment and on human health.MethodsAn attributional life cycle assessment was conducted on eight different scenarios that reduce the inputs of herbicides and insecticides compared against a business as usual (BAU) scenario. We assess several impact categories based on ReCiPe, namely global warming potential, terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, terrestrial toxicity, freshwater toxicity, marine toxicity, human carcinogenic toxicity and human non-carcinogenic toxicity, human health and ecosystems. A water footprint assessment based on the AWARE method accounts for potential impacts within the watershed.Results and discussionResults show that in our impact assessment, more sustainable farming practices do not always outperform the BAU scenario, which relies on synthetic fertiliser and agrochemicals. As a main trend, most of the impact categories were dominated by energy requirements of wine grape production in an irrigated vineyard, namely the usage of electricity for irrigation pumps and diesel for agricultural machinery. The most favourable scenario across the impact categories provided a low diesel usage, strongly reduced herbicides and the absence of insecticides as it applied cover crops and an integrated pest management. Pesticides and heavy metals contained in agrochemicals are the main contributors to emissions to soil that affected the toxicity categories and impose a risk on human health, which is particularly relevant for the manual labour-intensive South African wine sector. However, we suggest that impacts of agrochemicals on human health and the environment are undervalued in the assessment. The 70% reduction of toxic agrochemicals such as Glyphosate and Paraquat and the 100% reduction of Chlorpyriphos in vineyards hardly affected the model results for human and ecotoxicity. Our concerns are magnified by the fact that manual labour plays a substantial role in South African vineyards, increasing the exposure of humans to these toxic chemicals at their workplace.ConclusionsA more sustainable wine grape production is possible when shifting to integrated grape production practices that reduce the inputs of agrochemicals. Further, improved water and related electricity management through drip irrigation, deficit irrigation and photovoltaic-powered irrigation is recommendable, relieving stress on local water bodies, enhancing drought-preparedness planning and curbing CO2 emissions embodied in products.