Abstract
This paper assesses the impact of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment in South Africa. The cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD) is utilized to project two energy mix scenarios and their associated employment implications at provincial level. While the business as usual (BAU) scenario shows a continuous use of coal capacity in the South African power sector until 2050, the 2 °C scenario exhibits a phase-out of coal by 2040 and a higher diversification of power generation dominated by solar and wind capacity.The increase in renewable energy sources (RES) generates employment in the energy sector which can partially substitute the decline in coal related jobs in affected regions. However, it is not certain that the employment created by RES will directly benefit those negatively impacted by the transition. The results of a sensitivity of the 2 °C scenario provide a near cost-optimal energy system in line with a just transition towards a 2 °C world that limits the employment impacts for former coal regions. Thus, a technological transition from a coal- to a RES-based system needs comprehensive plans for job-transfers, policy formulations, support mechanisms and structural transformation.
Highlights
The worldwide commitment to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to stay within a 2 ◦C pathway implies the need for a phase-out of fossil fuels and especially coal
While the business as usual (BAU) scenario shows a continuous use of coal capacity in the South African power sector until 2050, the 2 ◦C scenario exhibits a phase-out of coal by 2040 and a higher diversification of power generation dominated by solar and wind capacity
The South African energy sector is dominated by fossil fuels
Summary
The worldwide commitment to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to stay within a 2 ◦C pathway implies the need for a phase-out of fossil fuels and especially coal. The consequential decrease of coal demand on the global market and the obligation to reduce emissions on a national level will greatly affect carbon intensive countries like South Africa (Burton et al, 2018a; International Energy Agency, 2019c; IPCC, 2018). South Africa is the sixth largest steam coal exporting country in the world (International Energy Agency, 2019a) and the economic income and national employment structure highly depend on mining of and trade with coal (Burton et al, 2018a). As a country dealing with high unemployment and extreme poverty, it will face financial, technological and social challenges as the transition towards a low-carbon energy system progresses (World Bank Group, 2019a; Sta tistics South Africa, 2018). Jobs and revenues related to coal deployment lead to dependencies of different aspects which need to be considered to allow for a just transition
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