Urban Land Expansion In China Research Articles

Urban Land Expansion Simulation Considering the Increasing versus Decreasing Balance Policy: A Case Study in Fenghua, China

Under the political dominance of urbanization, the policy of increasing versus decreasing balance (IVDB) between urban and rural construction land has had a profound influence on urban land expansion in China. The purpose of this study is to reveal the impact of the IVDB policy on the process of urban land expansion. Considering the transition process among different land use types under the IVDB policy, this study proposes two situations of urban land expansion. A future land use simulation (FLUS) model is applied to simulate the expansion process over three steps. A case study of Fenghua District in Ningbo City, China, shows the following: (1) In the first situation of village land directly transformed into urban land, the transformation is concentrated in the northern and western parts of Fenghua District. The expansion trends are particularly pronounced along existing urban land and main traffic lines. (2) In the second situation of village land reclamation for agricultural land and urban land occupation for agricultural land, the spatial differences in village land conversion to arable land or other agricultural land are relatively small, and the degree of concentration of arable land is significantly increased after reclamation. Urban land expansion mainly occurs close to Ningbo City. With the help of transfer quotas “produced” by other areas, expansion land can be balanced within Fenghua District. This research helps to shed light on the urban land use growth process and provides beneficial insights for stock spatial planning in China.

Urban land expansion, fiscal decentralization and haze pollution: Evidence from 281 prefecture-level cities in China

Urban land expansion will influence aspects of economy and society, including the quality of the urban environment. This study aims to examine the impacts of urban land expansion in China on haze pollution under the fiscal decentralization system using the spatial Durbin model. Urban land expansion is measured using two dimensions of urban land expansion, namely, intensity and orderliness of the structure of urban land expansion. The results reveal that urban haze pollution in China exhibits significant positive spillover characteristics, which manifest as “high–high” and “low–low” characteristics of spatial agglomeration. In general, improving the expansion intensity of urban land and the orderly structure of urban land expansion can reduce haze pollution in local and surrounding areas. With the improvement of the degree of fiscal decentralization, the positive effect of an orderly urban land structure in reducing haze pollution will be weakened. The above-mentioned influences depict distinct heterogeneities at the levels of city size, type, and location.

Simulation of urban land expansion in China at 30 m resolution through 2050 under shared socioeconomic pathways

ABSTRACT Rapid urbanization has profoundly impacted social and environmental systems. China is the world’s largest developing country. Projecting future urban expansion in China is critical to alleviate any adverse impacts and achieve sustainable development goals. However, the existing national-scale urban expansion simulations at low or medium resolutions produce significant distortions in urban spatial patterns, limiting the utility of future projections. High-resolution simulation of urban expansion is challenging on a large scale owing to high computational demands. In this study, we used a high-performance cellular automata model (Tensor-FLUS) to simulate the urban expansion of China from 2015 to 2050, at 30 m spatial resolution, under shared socioeconomic pathways. The high-resolution (30 m) urban expansion simulations preserve greater spatial details and avoid 34.07–37.60% underestimation of the urban area, compared with simulation at 1 km resolution. The environmental impact assessments revealed that future urban expansion mainly encroaches on cropland (88.00–88.29%), with a greater likelihood of occupying productive cropland, placing substantial pressure on food production. Although the proportion of occupied natural land is relatively small (11.32–11.60%), newly expanded urban areas will tend to consume woodland and grassland of high ecological value, leading to profound impacts on the ecosystem. In general, the produced high-resolution future simulations can reduce the uncertainty of environmental impact assessment at the national scale. Furthermore, it can provide consistent projection data for research at the provincial or metropolitan scales to support urban planning and local climate change mitigation.

Tropospheric Ozone Perturbations Induced by Urban Land Expansion in China from 1980 to 2017.

Urbanization perturbs air pollutants from a dynamic and thermodynamic perspective, which has inspired extensive investigations in China due to rapid urban land expansion in the past four decades. However, knowledge gaps remain in the long-term and nationwide responses to air pollutants to urbanization. The evolution of tropospheric ozone associated with urban land expansion across China was assessed from 1980 to 2017 using a coupled WRF-Chem model based on a recently updated land use change (LUC) data set. The results revealed that urban-land expansion drove growing ozone trends for this period and contributed about 3-9% to its summer maximum concentrations during the 2010s in major urban agglomerations across China. The association between a long-term change in summer O3 concentrations and LUC after excluding the effect of precursor emissions and meteorological conditions and causes of interannual (short-term) variations in O3 concentrations induced by urban-land expansion were also explored by examining the relationships between ozone fluctuations and meteorological variables.

China’s Socioeconomic and CO2 Status Concerning Future Land-Use Change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

China has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China’s latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO2 emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO2 emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO2 emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal.

The varying driving forces of urban land expansion in China: Insights from a spatial-temporal analysis

The impacts of socioeconomic development on urban land expansion in China vary across space and time; however, comprehensive investigation of this issue remains scarce in the existing literature. This study used a geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR) to examine the spatiotemporally heterogeneous impacts of socioeconomic factors on urban land expansion in China using a newly available annual urban land-use dataset from 2000 to 2015. We found that although the eastern region has maintained its leading role (53.79%) in terms of urban expansion, the share of the central (20.34%) and western (16.13%) regions is gradually increasing. Cities with a higher administrative status tended to expand more rapidly; however, increasingly expansion has also taken place in the prefecture-level cities in recent years. We further found that Gross domestic product (GDP) growth, population density, and capital investment positively contributed to the expansion, although the directions and strengths of association between these factors and urban expansion varied across space and time. Industrial structure and foreign direct investment (FDI) showed a similar variation change trend, with the number of cities evidencing a negative relationship rapidly expanding and increasingly being seen not just in northwest China but also in the southeast during the study period. We also found that the correlation between public finance expenditure and urban expansion presented significant north-south differentiation. It is worth noting that governmental behavior plays a significant role in driving urban land expansion. Our empirical study confirmed the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of socioeconomic factors on urban expansion in China, providing useful insights for city governments and urban planners.

Do high-speed railways accelerate urban land expansion in China? A study based on the multi-stage difference-in-differences model

High-speed railway (HSR) have become the main transportation mode in China and a crucial contributing factor for the formation and development of urban and regional spatial structure. This study aims to investigate the effects and mechanisms of HSR on urban land expansion in China. The multi-stage difference-in-differences (DID) estimation method is used to explore the cases of 35 mega cities. The main results are presented as follows. 1) Opening HSR can positively influence urban land expansion, as evidenced by the 9.5% increase in the urban land expansion index after such opening. 2) The increase in the number of HSR station and route can accelerate urban land expansion. Each newly added station increases the urban land expansion index by 2.4%, and urban land expansion increases 4.8% when a new HSR route is added. 3) The positive effects of the opening of HSR on urban land expansion generally have a time lag of five years. 4) Compared with cities in the east, the midwestern ones are more vulnerable to the impact of HSR. The net effect of HSR on urban land expansion for midwestern cities is 10.9% higher than that for cities in the east. Furthermore, the mechanisms of the effect of HSR on urban land expansion are the industrial agglomeration effect of HSR and the incentive effect of local governments’ land finance alongside the development of HSR.

Assessing Interannual Urbanization of China’s Six Megacities Since 2000

As a large and populous developing country, China has entered the rapid urbanization stage since 2000. Until 2018, China has accounted for nearly 1/5 of global megacities. Understanding their urbanization processes is of great significance. Given the deficiencies of existing research, this study explored the interannual urbanization process of China’s six megacities during 2000–2018 from four aspects, namely, the basic characteristics of urban land expansion, expansion types, cotemporary evolution of urban land–population–economy, and urbanization effects on the local environment. Results indicated that (1) urban lands in China’s six megacities increased by 153.27%, with distinct differences across megacities; (2) all of six megacities experienced the expansion processes from high-speed to low-speed, but they varied greatly in detail; (3) the speeds of urban land expansion in China’s megacities outpaced the population growth but lagged behind in GDP increase; and (4) urbanization has triggered an environmental crisis, which is represented by the decline in vegetation coverage and the increase in land surface temperature in newly expanded urban lands. This study enriched the content of urbanization, supplemented the existing materials of megacities, and provided a scientific reference for designing rational urban planning.

Urban land expansion in China's six megacities from 1978 to 2015

Megacities pose both challenges and opportunities for the transition towards sustainability, and understanding the evolution of urbanization in megacities has profound implications for human societies in an increasingly urbanized world. Here, we mapped and quantified spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion in China's six megacities (i.e., Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin) from 1978 to 2015, integrating remote sensing and GIS technology combined with landscape metrics and urban growth type analysis. The results show that six Chinese megacities have all undergone extensive physical expansion over the past four decades, and the magnitude of urban expansion is ranked in the order of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Beijing, with annual growth rates of 11.02%, 8.07%, 5.80%, 5.37%, 4.56% and 3.46%, respectively. The megacities with smaller initial urban areas were associated with higher urban expansion rates. Differences in the direction, extent and location of expansion for each megacity related largely to the topography, policies and urban master planning. Temporal dynamics of urban growth and landscape metrics suggested that the urbanization processes of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin were basically consistent with urban growth theory, while those of Chongqing and Guangzhou did not match the theory well. Temporal coevolution of the urban area with urban population implied efficiency of urban land use in Shenzhen and Beijing, which are the first special economic zone and the capital of China, respectively. The efficiency of wealth creation in the urbanized area base was observed for all Chinese megacities, signifying the effectiveness of urban expansion as a vehicle to promote economic growth. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between the benefits and costs of urban agglomeration.

Urban land expansion and regional inequality in transitional China

Rising inequality and spatial concentration in China have drawn considerable scholarly interest and social concern. However, sources of spatial inequality in China remain under-studied. This article analyzes spatial patterns and dynamics of urban land expansion in China to better understand the role of institutions and urbanization in spatial inequality. We find that urban land expansion in China is highly uneven at both intra-provincial and intra-prefectural levels, and inequalities are much higher in the Western region than the Eastern region. We also find that provincial-level development policies tend to increase urban land expansion and economic development gaps across prefectures, while urban land expansion tends to converge within prefectures. Such core-periphery growth patterns have intensified economic gaps across prefectures and provinces in China.

Management of urban land expansion in China through intensity assessment: A big data perspective

Rapid urbanization and widespread urban sprawl have induced a new era of urban resource management that focuses on efficiency, particularly in megacities in China. Big data is a platform for multi-source data fusion that helps to create spatially explicit decisions in regulating urban land expansion. In this study, we use big data to assess the intensity of urban land use in the metropolitan areas of China. OpenStreetMap and point-of-interest data are used to infer the urban function of each established parcel. Geographical weighted regression (GWR) is used to generate input–output matchups and to formulate integrated urban land use intensity values. To incorporate spatial relations among cities into a final assessment, spatial networks derived from check-in data of the social media platform, “Weibo,” are used to rank through the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS). Results show that Guangzhou has the most efficient urban land use system, followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen, and that Suzhou has the lowest urban land intensity. It is also revealed that the megalopolises in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are superior in urban land use in general, whereas urban land use in the northern and western areas of China are less efficient. The megacities have strengths and weaknesses with respect to urban land use efficiency, and they advance at different stages when characteristic input–output relationships are identified. This advancement is largely attributed to their unique political, economic, and cultural roles in China. Further improvements in each land use function will be proposed in the future and the profound networked big data from each city will be utilized to improve urban resource management.

Impact of land revenue on the urban land growth toward decreasing population density in Jiangsu Province, China

Although land conveyance fees have accounted for a large portion of local governments' fiscal revenues and have been associated with rapid urban land expansion in China during the past two decades, little attention has been paid to the effect of land revenue on urban development intensity in China. This study focuses on the linkage between land revenue and urban land growth toward a decreasing population density (sparse pattern), termed “sparse effect” of land revenue in this study. A classification approach, based on the rate of demographic and urban land growth, was used to categorize urban land growth in Jiangsu Province, China. By dummy coding those categories, the dependent variable was generated and the multilevel logit model was used to examine the “sparse effect”. From 2000 to 2010, 63 analytical units experienced a sparse pattern. Local governments showed some land management behaviors specific to land revenue, including newly-converted-land-prioritized and employment-land-prioritized, which resulted in “expansive effect” of land revenue on urban land growth. Taking advantage of the hukou system (household registration), land revenue cast the “selective absorbing effect” on population. The study indicated that the “expansive effect” together with “selective absorbing effect” of land revenue has resulted in the “sparse effect”, which could be weaker in a poor, less-developed region.

Differences in driving-force mechanisms in urban land expansion in China

Differences in driving-force mechanisms in urban land expansion in China

Balancing act: Economic incentives, administrative restrictions, and urban land expansion in China

We examine how the system of “federalism, Chinese style” functions in the context of land allocation. China's land laws give provision of land a central role in local officials' growth promotion strategies. Requisitions of farmland by local authorities have engendered significant rural unrest. In response, the central government has attempted to re-establish control over the pace of urban land expansion by enacting regulations limiting conversion of rural land to urban uses. We derive theoretically the conditions under which non-compliance with such regulations is optimal. An econometric investigation shows that legal restrictions on farmland conversion had little or no effect on rates of farmland loss but did limit urban spatial growth. Our econometric evidence is consistent with limited enforcement of those legal limits on farmland conversion.

Zone Fever, Project Fever: Development Policy, Economic Transition, and Urban Expansion in China

With the pursuit for global competitiveness and economic growth, Chinese cities have recorded massive urban land expansion. This article examines the effects of development policies and economic restructuring on urban land expansion in China through a case study of Nanjing, representing the rapidly growing and globalizing coastal cities in China. Wei investigate the development process and changing contents of government policies, and analyze development zones and key projects as privileged, trait making, and even path‐breaking elements of the development process. We highlight the transition and paradox of the Chinese state in the urban development process, and the broad contexts underlying urban land expansion in Chinese cities. We see urban expansion in China as a process largely responding to top‐down policy change and economic transition initiated by the central government. We hold that the role of the state has to be analyzed to understand urban transformation and land expansion, moving beyond local factors of accessibility and feasibility. Development‐zone and project fevers, and lagging administrative reforms, however, have made Chinese cities heavy with debt and led to wasteful development, corruption, and social unrest in China.

Urban land expansion under economic transition in China: A multi-level modeling analysis

China is undergoing an unprecedented urbanization process in which massive amounts of rural land has been converted to urban use. Indeed, rapid urban land expansion in China has generated heightened concerns over consequences of urbanization and challenges to sustainability and public policy. This study applies the triple transition framework of globalization, marketization, and decentralization to study how economic transition influences urban land expansion in China. Using official land use conveyance data from 2005 to 2008, we have found that significant spatial variation at both provincial and prefectural levels exist in urban land expansion. Regression analysis at the prefectural level reveals that the theoretical framework explains urban land expansion. While marketization is more important to overall urban land expansion, globalization plays a critical role in industrial land expansion. Further applying a multi-level modeling analysis, we find that two-level modeling can considerately improve the model and, more importantly, decentralization significantly contributes to the expansion of construction and industrial land. These results indicate that China's process of urban land expansion is influenced by global forces (globalization), the transition from a socialist to a market economy (marketization), and the process of decentralization dismantling totalitarianism of socialism and mobilizing local resources for development. We argue for integrating global and local forces to more fully understand urbanization process and sustainability challenges.

Urban Land Expansion and Spatial Dynamics in Globalizing Shanghai

Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs). We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.

Economic transition and urban land expansion in Provincial China

China has undergone economic transition characterized by marketization, globalization and decentralization, which has resulted in profound change in land use and urban space. This paper integrates globalization, institutional change, and China's economic transition to better understand urban land expansion in China. We use land use survey data in Jiangsu province at the county level to shed the light on the impact of economic transition on land use change and urban land expansion in China. We have found that a dramatic land use change in Jiangsu characterized by rapid urban land expansion, particularly Sunan (Southern Jiangsu) and municipal districts. This can be well explained by government policies including tax reform and intergovernmental competition, the participation in the global economy, and the development of a market economy. We have also found that urban land expansion has a temporal dimension, and was driven mainly by local governments in the early stage of the reform, followed by marketization, and more recently globalization after China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO).

A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km2 from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km2 and 12,568,000 km2, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km2 more likely.

Spatio-temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Urban Land Expansion in China during the Economic Reform Era

Along with its economic reform, China has experienced a rapid urbanization. This study mapped urban land expansion in China using high-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper data of 1989/1990, 1995/1996 and 1999/2000 and analyzed its expansion modes and the driving forces underlying this process during 1990-2000. Our results show that China's urban land increased by 817 thousand hectares, of which 80.8% occurred during 1990-1995 and 19.2% during 1995-2000. It was also found that China's urban expansion had high spatial and temporal differences, such as four expansion modes, concentric, leapfrog, linear and multi-nuclei, and their combinations coexisted and expanded urban land area in the second 5 y was much less than that of the first 5 y. Case studies of the 13 mega cities showed that urban expansion had been largely driven by demographic change, economic growth, and changes in land use policies and regulations.