Abstract
Urban land expansion in China has attracted considerable scholarly attention. However, more work is needed to apply spatial modeling to understanding the mechanisms of urban growth from both institutional and physical perspectives. This paper analyzes urban expansion in Shanghai and its development zones (DZs). We find that, as nodes of global-local interface, the DZs are the most significant components of urban growth in Shanghai, and major spatial patterns of urban expansion in Shanghai are infilling and edge expansion. We apply logistic regression, geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) and spatial regime regression to investigate the determinants of urban land expansion including physical conditions, state policy and land development. Regressions reveal that, though the market has been an important driving force in urban growth, the state has played a predominant role through the implementation of urban planning and the establishment of DZs to fully capitalize on globalization. We also find that differences in urban growth dynamics exist between the areas inside and outside of the DZs. Finally, this paper discusses policies to promote sustainable development in Shanghai.
Highlights
Chinese cities have been experiencing drastic urban land expansion since the period of economic reform that began in 1978, in turn causing serious social justice, equitable development and environmental protection issues [1,2]
From the state power perspective (Table 5), we found that the distance to railway (DRL) has the strongest negative effect on land conversion probability, which is different from the result of Nanjing and Wuhan [13,48]
In both results of spatial regime and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR), we found that the DLW has a significantly negative influence on the urban land expansion in Shanghai
Summary
Chinese cities have been experiencing drastic urban land expansion since the period of economic reform that began in 1978, in turn causing serious social justice, equitable development and environmental protection issues [1,2]. The institutional perspective has argued that urban growth in Chinese cities is shaped by the state and the market [2,9] The scholars, from this perspective, have investigated the internal land use change of development zones (DZs) [10,11,12]. By applying a patch analysis method in GIS on the land use change images, we identified the spatial patterns of urban land expansion in Shanghai. We applied global logistics regression, logistic spatial regime regression and geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) to investigate the interaction between the development of urban land and accessibility, state policy/planning and neighborhood land use to better understand the mechanisms of urban growth, and to quantify the interactions between state and market powers
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