The varying driving forces of urban land expansion in China: Insights from a spatial-temporal analysis

Abstract

The impacts of socioeconomic development on urban land expansion in China vary across space and time; however, comprehensive investigation of this issue remains scarce in the existing literature. This study used a geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR) to examine the spatiotemporally heterogeneous impacts of socioeconomic factors on urban land expansion in China using a newly available annual urban land-use dataset from 2000 to 2015. We found that although the eastern region has maintained its leading role (53.79%) in terms of urban expansion, the share of the central (20.34%) and western (16.13%) regions is gradually increasing. Cities with a higher administrative status tended to expand more rapidly; however, increasingly expansion has also taken place in the prefecture-level cities in recent years. We further found that Gross domestic product (GDP) growth, population density, and capital investment positively contributed to the expansion, although the directions and strengths of association between these factors and urban expansion varied across space and time. Industrial structure and foreign direct investment (FDI) showed a similar variation change trend, with the number of cities evidencing a negative relationship rapidly expanding and increasingly being seen not just in northwest China but also in the southeast during the study period. We also found that the correlation between public finance expenditure and urban expansion presented significant north-south differentiation. It is worth noting that governmental behavior plays a significant role in driving urban land expansion. Our empirical study confirmed the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of socioeconomic factors on urban expansion in China, providing useful insights for city governments and urban planners.