Impact of land revenue on the urban land growth toward decreasing population density in Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

Although land conveyance fees have accounted for a large portion of local governments' fiscal revenues and have been associated with rapid urban land expansion in China during the past two decades, little attention has been paid to the effect of land revenue on urban development intensity in China. This study focuses on the linkage between land revenue and urban land growth toward a decreasing population density (sparse pattern), termed “sparse effect” of land revenue in this study. A classification approach, based on the rate of demographic and urban land growth, was used to categorize urban land growth in Jiangsu Province, China. By dummy coding those categories, the dependent variable was generated and the multilevel logit model was used to examine the “sparse effect”. From 2000 to 2010, 63 analytical units experienced a sparse pattern. Local governments showed some land management behaviors specific to land revenue, including newly-converted-land-prioritized and employment-land-prioritized, which resulted in “expansive effect” of land revenue on urban land growth. Taking advantage of the hukou system (household registration), land revenue cast the “selective absorbing effect” on population. The study indicated that the “expansive effect” together with “selective absorbing effect” of land revenue has resulted in the “sparse effect”, which could be weaker in a poor, less-developed region.