Urban Growth Simulation Model Research Articles

Remote Sensing-Enabled Urban Growth Simulation Overlaid with AHP-GIS-Based Urban Land Suitability for Potential Development in Mersin Metropolitan Area, Türkiye

This study delves into the integration of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques to identify suitable areas for urban development in six districts within the Mersin Metropolitan Area of Turkey. The specific aim is to generate an urban land use suitability map, in order to facilitate informed decision-making for urban development. Drawing on open Landsat satellite imagery and employing the random forest (RF) algorithm, the study spans a fifteen-year period, over which land use/land cover (LULC) changes are measured. Furthermore, a novel approach is introduced by incorporating the urban land use suitability map into an urban growth simulation model developed using a logistic regression (LR) algorithm. This simulation forecasts urban growth up to 2027, enabling planners to evaluate potential development areas against suitability criteria. Findings reveal spatial patterns of land suitability and projected urban growth, aiding decision-makers in selecting optimal areas for development while preserving ecological integrity. Notably, the study emphasizes the importance of considering various factors such as topography, accessibility, soil capability, and geology in urban planning processes. The results showcase significant proportions of the study area as being moderately to highly suitable for urban development, alongside notable shifts in LULC classes over the years. Additionally, the overlay analysis of simulated urban growth and land suitability maps highlights areas with contrasting suitability levels, offering valuable insights for sustainable urban growth strategies. By overlaying the urban land suitability map with a simulated LULC map for 2027, it is revealed that 2247.3 hectares of potential new urbanization areas demonstrate very high suitability for settlement, while 7440.12 hectares exhibit very low suitability. By providing a comprehensive framework for assessing urban land suitability and projecting future growth, this research offers practical implications for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders involved in Mersin’s development trajectory, ultimately fostering more sustainable and resilient urban landscapes.

Simulation of Space Objects And Future Perspective of Mosul's Space Expansion Until 2027 Under The Ca-Markov Model

Urban growth simulation models have proven their great effectiveness over years, as through these models a geographic information base is built in which presented to planners and specialists in urban planning, and in light of this, informed and correct decisions are made. Therefore, this research focused on predicting changes in the types of land cover in the city of Mosul from 2007 to 2017 to reach a prediction for the year 2027 using the simulation models available in the IDRISI SELVA program, and through the compatibility between geographic information systems and remote sensing programs. The CA-MARKOV model was employed to predict the size of expected changes in the types of land cover and obtain an objective map signifying the spread spatial organisms. The results showed that the city of Mosul is expected to expand spatially in the category of built-up areas to an area of up to (18) km2, where the constructed areas are expected to occupy an area of up to (143.5) km2, and by (79%) of the city region. It is expected that the city will be overcrowded with urbanization and what remains of barren areas and agricultural areas, are very limited and not commensurate with the increase of the city’s population, as it is expected to reach a number of (2,119,363) people in in the year 2027. Consequently, the research suggested expanding outside the city borders for a distance of 7 km2 in all directions by referring to experts in this field in order for the city to be built on a planned approach that does not distort its shape and grow more green spaces.

Influence of multiple spatiotemporal resolutions on the performance of urban growth simulation models

The study developed a framework to investigate the impact of multiple spatial and temporal resolutions on urban growth simulation. The research utilized the convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) model and three regular models and data from 2009 to 2017 to simulate the urban area of Liangjiang New District in 2018 and determine the optimal spatiotemporal resolution for urban expansion models. The results indicated that the ConvLSTM model has the best simulation result and the ideal temporal resolution for Liangjiang district is to include the previous two years of data, with an optimal spatial resolution of 90m and a spatiotemporal simulation zone within a two-year time step and 100×100 spatial information filter. At this combination, the kappa value of the ConvLSTM is 0.87 which is about 5% higher than others. Our findings revealed that the characteristics of input data can have a significant impact on simulation results and should be carefully considered during the simulation process.

Application of urban growth boundary delineation based on a neural network approach and landscape metrics for Khulna City, Bangladesh

The rapid and unprecedented urban growth in Khulna, Bangladesh is making it difficult to implement measures to limit further expansion and define clear administrative boundaries, which is posing a significant threat to the environment and ecological sustainability. Using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based urban growth simulation model and landscape metrics, this study aims to evaluate the spatial extent and direction of urban growth and demarcate an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) by examining the future contiguous expansion of the city for implementing effective land use provision. Utilizing data on biophysical, proximity, neighborhood, and market factors over the past twenty years, the neural network with Markov chain model allocates the land demand for buildup area by 2020 and 2030, concerning twelve explanatory variables. The simulated map of the urban area is further used by landscape metrics to quantify local-level urban patch information viz. landscape pattern, size, aggregation, etc. The compact patch characteristics are mostly found under the Kotwali thana, while, fragmented and unstructured patches are prevailing between urban–rural interfaces. Finally, there has around 95 km2 gap between the existing service provided by KCC and the future demand of Khulna city, creating an imbalance between the supply and demand of urban services. Hence, restricted urban growth would make government investment in service facilities cost-effective and enable planners and decision-makers to intend a feasible trade-off between future land demand and the protection of natural resources.

Robust Facility Location of Container Clinics: A South African Application

There is a lack of dynamic facility location models for developing countries that consider the changes in the problem environment over time, such as patient population and population migration. Therefore, this paper focuses on using optimization and goal programming to locate health care facilities in an uncertain environment using multiple possible future urban development senarios. To achieve this, a robust multi-objective facility location model is developed and used to determine locations for container clinic deployment over multiple years in selected communities in South Africa. A synthetic population and urban growth simulation model are used to estimate population density and distribution from 2018 to 2030 for three development senarios. The results from the urban growth simulation model are then used as input into the facility location model to locate facilities whilst considering the three future development scenarios. Results of the model indicate that the robust model can be used to find locations that provide a relatively good solution to all considered development scenarios, providing key role players with quantitative decision support during network design under uncertainty. An accessibility analysis investigates the impact of the prescribed accessibility percentage on model results and a budget analysis evaluates the impact of a case that includes a budget constraint. From these two analyses it is illustrated that the model is sensitive to changes in parameters and that the model can be used by key stakeholders to combine network design and urban development planning for improved decision making.

Quantify the Potential Spatial Reshaping Utility of Urban Growth Boundary (UGB): Evidence from the Constrained Scenario Simulation Model

Many countries, including China, have implemented the spatial government policy widely known as urban growth boundary (UGB) for managing future urban growth. However, few studies have asked why we need UGB, especially pre-evaluating the utility of UGB for reshaping the future spatial patterns of cities. In this research, we proposed a constrained urban growth simulation model (CUGSM) which coupled Markov chain (MC), random forest (RF), and patch growth based cellular automata (Patch-CA) to simulate urban growth. The regulatory effect of UGB was coupled with CUGSM based on a random probability game method. Guangzhou city, a metropolitan area located in the Peral River Delta of China, was taken as a case study. Historical urban growth from 1995 to 2005 and random forests were used to calibrate the conversion rules of Patch-CA, and the urban patterns simulated and observed in 2015 were used to identify the simulation accuracy. The results showed that the Kappa and figure of merit (FOM) indices of the unconstrained Patch-CA were just 0.7914 and 0.1930, respectively, which indicated that the actual urban growth was reshaped by some force beyond what Patch-CA has learned. We further compared the simulation scenarios in 2035 with and without considering the UGB constraint, and the difference between them is as high as 21.14%, which demonstrates that UGB plays an important role in the spatial reshaping of future urban growth. Specifically, the newly added urban land outside the UGB has decreased from 25.13% to 16.86% after considering the UGB constraint; particularly, the occupation of agricultural space and ecological space has been dramatically reduced. This research has demonstrated that the utility of UGB for reshaping future urban growth is pronounced, and it is necessary for the Chinese government to further strengthen UGB policy to promote sustainable urban growth.

Future urban growth scenarios and ecosystem services valuation in the Tepic-Xalisco Metropolitan area, Mexico

Currently, there is a need to establish new territorial planning instruments focused on sustainable development. The simulation of spatial scenarios is an essential tool to evaluate different alternatives for urban planning. The objective of this work was to explore future urban growth through the analysis of landscape patterns and the economic quantification of ecosystem services of three prospective scenarios, simulated towards the horizon year 2045. Each scenario was formulated, based on the application of different socioeconomic, political and environmental development strategies whose actions have a direct impact on land-use changes. The starting point was an urban growth simulation model, based on Cellular Automata with Markov Chains (CA-Markov), developed from previous work for the study area. Three scenarios were constructed with the intention of showing the spatial characteristics of three different alternatives of the evolution of future urban growth and through them, quantify the economic value and the consequences that would occur in the territory due to the effect of the different decisions taken. Landscape metrics were applied to detect the spatial processes and patterns of urban growth for each of the simulated scenarios and, finally, the costs of ecosystem services associated with the loss or gain of territory (that each of the different land covers and land uses would contribute) were quantified. The three simulated scenarios revealed that the Tepic-Xalisco Metropolitan Zone (MZ) will be in a process of urban coalescence in the next 30 years; and that the path designed to move towards an Industrialisation Scenario (ES2-IN) estimates economic losses of more than $31 million dollars per year for the ecosystem services associated particularly with the reduction of forest cover.

Examining the Use of Urban Growth Boundary for Future Urban Expansion of Chattogram, Bangladesh

With the rapid and unregulated nature of urban expansion occurring in Chattogram, Bangladesh, the adoption of urban growth restriction mechanisms such as the urban growth boundary (UGB) can provide a robust framework necessary to direct the development of built-up areas in a way that curtails the growth in environmentally sensitive areas of the city. Using a support vector machine (SVM)-based urban growth simulation model, this paper examines the areas of future contiguous expansion of the city to aid in the delineation of the UGB. Utilizing landcover, topographic, and population density data from a variety of sources for the past twenty years, the SVM method with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel is used to develop a model based on fourteen predictor variables. A grid-search is used to tune the hyperparameters and determine the best performance combination of the hyperparameters for the RBF kernel function used in the SVM. The final SVM model using the best performance combination of the hyperparameters indicates a high percentage agreement of 91.79% and a substantial agreement for the Kappa coefficient of 0.7699. The developed SVM simulation model identifies potential areas that are more likely to undergo urban expansion in Chattogram in the next twenty years and provides aids for a stringent and strict delineation of UGB for this region.

Simulating urban growth through case-based reasoning

ABSTRACT Case-based reasoning (CBR) simplifies knowledge acquisition and is suitable for researching complex geographical problems. However, CBR analyses of land-use changes are difficult to apply in the study of urban growth due to shortcomings in the case structure and model algorithms. In response, this study proposes a three-step urban-growth simulation model based on CBR (UGSCBR). First, to adapt the CBR to an urban-growth simulation process, the characteristics of regional differentiation in geographical spaces are determined. Second, a comprehensive retrieval method is developed that improves upon traditional case-retrieval methods by giving full play to the comprehensive function of each component of the case. Third, a quantity demand constraint indirectly adds a time factor to solve the initial blurriness of the traditional CBR-inference cycle. Taking Jixi city as the research area, we test the accuracy of the proposed model. The total accuracy of simulation results is 95.4%, and the Kappa is 87.4%. The figure of merit and Mathews correlation coefficient are 0.151 and 0.23, respectively, indicating that the model can meet the application requirements. The results show that the UGSCBR model has strong flexibility and simplicity, and it provides an effective prediction method for urban growth.

Using the T‐EFA method in a cellular automata‐based urban growth simulation's calibration step

AbstractChanges in land cover driven by urban sprawl increase the threat of urbanization of forests and agricultural lands. Therefore, monitoring urban sprawl by creating simulation models is frequently carried out to understand sustainable city management. Cellular automata‐based models are mostly preferred to reduce the damage led by urban sprawl, and the SLEUTH model is the most well known. Several methods have been developed for the SLEUTH model calibration step, such as optimum SLEUTH metrics and total exploratory factor analysis (T‐EFA), to improve the model accuracy. This study aims to create a high‐accuracy urban growth simulation model using low‐resolution data, investigate the T‐EFA method's success in the calibration step, and find the urban sprawl effects on land cover change. Istanbul was selected as our study area due to witnessing its tremendous urban sprawl since the 1950s. According to our results, the urban growth that occurred between 2000 and 2018 could be defined more closely to reality using the T‐EFA method, and Istanbul will continue to grow until 2040, with approximately 428.7 km2 of agricultural lands, 553.4 km2 of forests, and 0.1 km2 of wetlands being transformed to urban. In addition, the geologically risky areas under threat of urbanization will increase by 60% between 2018 and 2040.

Modelling the spatial impact of regional planning and climate change prevention strategies on land consumption in the Rhine-Ruhr Metropolitan Area 2017–2030

Urban sprawl is a ubiquitous with a complex network of driving forces and human and natural impacts on various scales of the coupled human-environment urban system. In Germany, a land consumption of 30 ha per day is envisaged. In that regard, the effect of growing metropolitan areas on the climate of local neighborhoods becomes more and more a topic in regional planning. Accordingly, the objectives of the study are a) to contribute to the climate change related land cover simulation efforts in Germany in a spatially explicit manner with a resolution of 30 m, b) to investigate future land consumption rates and population growth rates having a view on goal 11 of UN’s SDG, and c) analyze the spatial impact of planning policies in regard to land use planning and official climate change prevention strategies using Rhine-Ruhr Metropolitan Area (RRMA) in Western Germany as a study area. The study makes use of land use and land cover classification of multispectral satellite data and the derivation of land surface temperature based on Landsat satellite in order to calibrate and validate the urban growth model SUSM (scenario-based urban growth simulation model). Two scenarios for future land consumption 2030 are implemented and the future impacts of urban growth with the projection of land consumption rate (LCR), population growth rate (PGR), and LCRPGR index on municipality level, as well as the impact on regions vulnerable to climate change evaluated. The comparison of simulated urban growth to observed urban growth from 2005 to 2017 shows that the PA of SUSM for historic scenario is 68.06% with an overall accuracy of 97.15%, a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.66, a figure of merit of 0.51 and area under curve of 0.84. The total quantity of new urban areas of our SUSM simulation 2030 were approximately 283 km2. While the difference in the simulated total quantity is nearly zero, the simulated allocation of new urban areas across the districts can differ by up to 25 km2 in the two scenarios. The number of municipalities with efficient urban land development rates increases in the SUSM scenario where no regional land development plan has been incorporated. This holds true for the number of municipalities with inefficient land use where even an increase from no plan to plan can be observed. LCRPGR is negative in most municipalities reflecting opposing trends of population and land consumption development. Most of new urban areas are distributed in open spaces important for the regional climate change prevention strategy. 32.98 % of new urban areas in our region of interest can be found in these zones in the planning scenario and 25.76 % in the scenario without planning information in SUSM model. It can be concluded that regional planning in RRMA region has no positive effect on the interregional development of future land consumption in terms of quantity, allocation, and impact on climate change prevention.

Using spatial heterogeneity to strengthen the neighbourhood effects of urban growth simulation models

ABSTRACT The transition rules of cellular automata (CA) werestrengthened by incorporating annual growth rate (AGR) to reflect spatially heterogeneous neighbourhoods. We conducted hotspot (AGRHST) and gradient (AGRGDT) analysis of AGR to generate two spatial heterogeneity layers, then constructed three CA models: AGR-CA, AGRHST-CA and AGRGDT-CA. The modeling results showed that AGR-CA performed best in overall accuracy, AGRGDT-CA was superior to other models in terms of landscape pattern, and AGRHST-CA produced unrealistically smooth boundaries. The simulation accuracy of these models exceeds 89%, indicating that logistic regression-based simulation methods can be substantially improved by strengthening the neighbourhood effects.

Optimization of a Novel Urban Growth Simulation Model Integrating an Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm and Cellular Automata for a Smart City

As one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, it is sensible to analysis historical urban land use characteristics and project the potentials of urban sustainable development for a smart city. The cellular automaton (CA) model is the widely applied in simulating urban growth, but the optimum parameters of variables driving urban growth in the model remains to be continued to improve. We propose a novel model integrating an artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA) and CA for optimizing parameters of variables in the urban growth model and make a comparison between AFSA-CA and other five models, which is used to study a 40-year urban land growth of Wuhan. We found that the urban growth types from 1995 to 2015 appeared relatively consistent, mainly including infilling, edge-expansion and distant-leap types in Wuhan, which a certain range of urban land growth on the periphery of the central area. Additionally, although the genetic algorithms (GA)-CA model and the AFSA-CA model among the six models due to the distance variables, the parameter value of the GA-CA model is −15.5409 according to the fact that the population (POP) variable should be positively. As a result, the AFSA-CA model regardless of the initial parameter setting is superior to the GA-CA model and the GA-CA model is superior to all the other models. Finally, it is projected that the potentials of urban growth in Wuhan for 2025 and 2035 under three scenarios (natural urban land growth without any restrictions (NULG), sustainable urban land growth with cropland protection and ecological security (SULG), and economic urban land growth with sustainable development and economic development in the core area (EULG)) focus mainly on existing urban land and some new town centers based on AFSA-CA urban growth simulation model. An increasingly precise simulation can determine the potential increase area and quantity of urban land, providing a basis to judge the layout of urban land use for urban planners.

USING THE TOTAL EXPLORATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS (T-EFA) AS A CALIBRATION TECHNIQUE FOR SLEUTH MODEL

Abstract. Developments in information technologies (IT) allow to modelling dynamic and complex form of cities and several studies have been implemented since 1990s. The cellular automata based urban growth simulation model, SLEUTH is the most well-known one among the simulation models. Calibration is the most important stage of the model created in three stages such as test, calibration, prediction. The more precise the calibration is completed, the more accurate the model generates. Several methods have been developed for the calibration step in which growth coefficients values are calculated by metrics. The study aims to investigate success of the Total Exploratory Factor Analysis (T-EFA) technique, which provides using the 13 metrics all together, in rapid grown settlement areas using high resolution data. In this context, the Sancaktepe district of Istanbul was selected as the study area and a simulation model was generated for the year 2050. The obtained results are promising to apply the T-EFA method in different studies.

Improvement of an Urban Growth Model for Railway-Induced Urban Expansion

Increasing population in urban areas drives urban cover expansion and spatial growth. Developing urban growth models enables better understanding and planning of sustainable urban areas. The SLEUTH model is an urban growth simulation model which uses the concept of cellular automata to predict land cover change using six spatial inputs of historical data (slope, land use, exclusion, urban, transportation, and hill-shade). This study investigates the potential of SLEUTH to capture railway-induced urban growth by testing methods that can consider railways as input to the model, namely (1) combining the exclusion layer with a station map; (2) creating a new input layer representing stations in addition to the default six inputs. Districts in Tsukuba, Japan and Gurugram, India which historically showed evidence of urban growth by railway construction are investigated. Results reveal that both proposed methods can capture railway impact on urban growth, while the former algorithm under the right settings may perform better than the latter at finer resolutions. Coarser resolution representation (300-m grid-spacing) eventually reduces the differences in accuracy among the default SLEUTH model and the proposed algorithms.

An urban growth simulation model based on integration of local weights and decision risk values

AbstractMonitoring and managing the rapid growth of cities, especially in developing countries, highlights the need for appropriate spatio‐temporal models to predict urban growth. The parameters affecting the spatio‐temporal analysis of urban growth play a key role in the prediction results. This study proposes an urban growth simulation model by integrating local subjective–objective weights and decision risk values (ORness) into a CA–Markov model. This involves the use of ordered weighting averaging as one of the multicriteria decision analysis methods to combine the weights and degree of risk for generating a variety of risk‐averse and/or risk‐taking urban growth prediction scenarios. The proposed model has been applied to predict the physical growth of Babol city, located in Mazandaran, Iran. The results indicate that the degrees of ORness = 0.3 and ORness = 0.9 yield better prediction results in the case of using the local and global weighting strategies, respectively. Furthermore, the overall accuracy of local and global weighting strategies at different degrees of risk was 87.6 and 86.8, respectively. This implies that the use of local subjective–objective weights leads to more accurate results than the global weights for simulating urban growth.

Monitoring of Urban Growth with Improved Model Accuracy by Statistical Methods

While the rural population is decreasing day by day, the urban population is increasing rapidly. Urban growth, which occurs as a result of this increase, is sprawling toward natural and environmental areas in urban fringes, and constitutes the main source of many environmental, physical, social, and economic problems. In order to overcome these problems, the direction and rate of urban growth should be determined with simulation models. In this context, many urban growth models have been developed since the 1990s; the SLEUTH urban growth model is one of the most popular among them and has been used in many projects around the world. The brute force calibration process in which the best fit values of growth coefficients are determined is the most important stage of simulation models. The coefficient ranges are initially defined as being between 0 and 100 and are then narrowed in this step according to 13 separate regression scores, which are used to specify the characterization of urban growth. Consensus has not yet been reached as to which metrics should be used for calculating the best fit values, but the Lee–Sallee and Optimum SLEUTH Metric (OSM) methods have been mostly used in past studies. However, in rapidly growing study areas, these methods cannot truly explain urban growth properties. The main purpose of this paper is to precisely calibrate urban growth simulation models. Therefore, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was used to calculate the growth coefficients, as a new statistical approach for calibration, in this study. The district of Sancaktepe, Istanbul, which experienced population growth of 80% between 2008 and 2018, was selected as the study area in order to test the achievement of the EFA method, and two urban growth simulation models were generated for the years 2030 and 2050. According to the results, despite the fact that there is little effect of urban growth in the short term, more than 70% of forests and agricultural lands are at risk of urbanization by 2050.

Urban growth simulation guided by ecological constraints in Beijing city: Methods and implications for spatial planning

An ecologically constrained and scenario oriented urban growth simulation provides an effective means to address and mitigate ecological impacts resulting from urban expansion. However, current urban growth simulations usually set ecological indicators as explanatory variables in the model, while ignoring the trade-off relationship between the requirement for additional urban space and the prevention of ecological loss. In this study, ecological loss was set as a constraint parallel to the urban growth simulation indicator system. The Minimum losses of key ecosystem functions were set as constraints in order to realize optimized urban growth pattern. Taking Beijing's urban growth from 2000 to 2010 as a case, we proposed an optimized coupling model with ecological loss as a constraint in urban growth simulation. The results showed a 22.96% reduction in the total amount of ecological loss under the ecological constraint. According to the urban growth simulation, the “constant growth scenario” had the least ecological loss. Moreover, a combination of multiple ecosystem functions is required for describing the ecological constraint. We suggest that ecological constraint in an urban growth simulation model could be an effective policy tool to plan urban expansion and provide more accurate support for the formulation of spatial planning.

Improving spatial accuracy of urban growth simulation models using ensemble forecasting approaches

This paper aims to improve the spatial accuracy of urban growth simulation models and clarify any associated uncertainties. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR) were implemented to simulate urban growth in the megacity of Tehran, Iran, as a case study. Model calibration was performed using data between 1985 and 1999 whereas the data between 1999 and 2014 was used for model validation. First of all, Transition Index Maps (TIMs) were computed by means of each model to assess the potential of urban growth for each cell. Using the standard deviation, consensus between the TIMs was evaluated. Because the TIMs of the individual models manifested discrepancies, they were combined using a number of ensemble forecasting approaches including median, mathematical average, principle component analysis, and weighted area under the total operating characteristic. The individual and combined TIMs were then put into Cellular Automata (CA) to simulate the future pattern of urban growth in Tehran. The results were evaluated in two stages. At first, the TIMs were evaluated by means of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC), and then a set of statistical indices was used to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the simulated urban growth maps. The best result was obtained by median ensemble forecasting, whereas the LR model showed the lowest level of accuracy. In similar studies, it is recommended to implement and compare different ensemble methods when integrating individual models.

SUSM: a scenario-based urban growth simulation model using remote sensing data

ABSTRACTThe introduction of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy in 1991 made India one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This has had a profound effect on India’s urbanization. The rapid urbanization of Indian cities poses a threat to natural and social environments, as expansion of the cities often outpaces the urban planning process. Thus, smart and strategic planning processes that use current and easily available datasets in combination with future urbanization scenarios are needed. To this end, we developed the scenario-based urban growth simulation model (SUSM), which can be used for impact analysis of different planning measures in both spatial and temporal contexts. SUSM uses remote sensing derived inputs, such as land use maps, slope, roads and centres of urban areas along with urban development scenarios. It uses logistic regression for calibration and a constrained stochastic cellular automaton for simulation of urban growth.SUSM is tested in one of the fastest growing urban agglomerations of India: The Pune metropolis, which covers an area of 1642 km2. SUSM is calibrated using urban growth maps derived from LANDSAT satellite images from 1992 to 2001. Subsequently, SUSM was used to simulate urban growth of Pune for 2013. A comparison of the SUSM simulation result with the actually measured urban growth derived from a LANDSAT 8 scene from 2013 is used to validate SUSM and to assess the effect of urban plans upon the growth of Pune. Our results show that: (i) SUSM is capable of predicting the location of future urbanization with an accuracy of 79% and a fuzzy kappa index of agreement 0.81; (ii) inclusion of official urban development plans as input for SUSM did not provide a better agreement with the observed growth; (iii) SUSM, parameterized with remote sensing data, can be used effectively to understand urban growth and assess the effects of alternative urban development plans in terms of the spatial expansion of cities.