Simulation of Space Objects And Future Perspective of Mosul's Space Expansion Until 2027 Under The Ca-Markov Model

Abstract

Urban growth simulation models have proven their great effectiveness over years, as through these models a geographic information base is built in which presented to planners and specialists in urban planning, and in light of this, informed and correct decisions are made. Therefore, this research focused on predicting changes in the types of land cover in the city of Mosul from 2007 to 2017 to reach a prediction for the year 2027 using the simulation models available in the IDRISI SELVA program, and through the compatibility between geographic information systems and remote sensing programs. The CA-MARKOV model was employed to predict the size of expected changes in the types of land cover and obtain an objective map signifying the spread spatial organisms. The results showed that the city of Mosul is expected to expand spatially in the category of built-up areas to an area of up to (18) km2, where the constructed areas are expected to occupy an area of up to (143.5) km2, and by (79%) of the city region. It is expected that the city will be overcrowded with urbanization and what remains of barren areas and agricultural areas, are very limited and not commensurate with the increase of the city’s population, as it is expected to reach a number of (2,119,363) people in in the year 2027. Consequently, the research suggested expanding outside the city borders for a distance of 7 km2 in all directions by referring to experts in this field in order for the city to be built on a planned approach that does not distort its shape and grow more green spaces.