Abstract
Abstract. Developments in information technologies (IT) allow to modelling dynamic and complex form of cities and several studies have been implemented since 1990s. The cellular automata based urban growth simulation model, SLEUTH is the most well-known one among the simulation models. Calibration is the most important stage of the model created in three stages such as test, calibration, prediction. The more precise the calibration is completed, the more accurate the model generates. Several methods have been developed for the calibration step in which growth coefficients values are calculated by metrics. The study aims to investigate success of the Total Exploratory Factor Analysis (T-EFA) technique, which provides using the 13 metrics all together, in rapid grown settlement areas using high resolution data. In this context, the Sancaktepe district of Istanbul was selected as the study area and a simulation model was generated for the year 2050. The obtained results are promising to apply the T-EFA method in different studies.
Highlights
Today’s half of the world population lives in cities and reaching this rate to 67% is expected in 2050
The calculations were made with 5 iterations, and the 13 r2 scores were produced for SLEUTH
An urban growth simulation model was created for the year 2050 in Sancaktepe, Istanbul
Summary
Today’s half of the world population lives in cities and reaching this rate to 67% is expected in 2050. The increase in population leads to physical expansion of urban space, called as urban growth. If urban growth is not controlled, some environmental, physical, social and economic problems (low air and water quality, insufficiency of natural resources, energy consumption, pollution etc.) are emerged. In metropolitan cities, where urban growth is intense, natural and environmental resources are polluted and garbage collection and storage problems threaten public health. Urban growth causes destructions of natural resources and triggers social problems and segregations between luxury residential areas, rural and slum areas, located in urban fringes. In terms of sustainable urban management, urban growth should be monitored and prevented its negative effects
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