United States China Trade Research Articles

The Trump effect: the perpetuation of populism in US–China trade

Abstract Our article analyses the enduring influence of Donald Trump's populist narrative on United States–China trade policies under Joe Biden's administration. We extend the literature on the effect of populism and populist leaders by examining what happens after a populist leader leaves office, and to what extent an expectation of populism perpetuates a populist narrative despite a change in leadership. In the case of US–China trade, the Biden administration that followed Trump's has carried on with a populist trade narrative and protectionist policies towards China, despite predictions that the US would return to ‘normal’ economic relations after Trump left office. Through textual analysis of speeches by both administrations, we identify a narrative coherence between Trump's nationalist–populist discourse and the trade rhetoric of the Biden administration, revealing a legacy of narrative expectation that constrains policy choices. Our findings demonstrate how Trump's populist framework persists, shaping White House discourse and policy decisions in the economic realm even after he has left office, and we showcase the enduring effect of populist language in political spheres.

Indonesia’s macroeconomic conditions during United States-China trade war

The trade war between the United States and China can affect the Indonesian economy. It is because the United States and China are Indonesia's main trading partners in International trading. Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators affected by the trade war are exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. This research examines the trade war's partial and simultaneous effect on Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions, such as exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. The data used in this study is secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI) in 2017 – 2020. The data analysis technique used is MANOVA (Multivariate Analysis of Variance). The empirical results showed that trade war simultaneously affects exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. Meanwhile, the trade war partially affects exports, imports, and interest rates but not inflation. Our research concluded that trade conflicts between Indonesia's two main trading partners, namely the United States and China, affect Indonesia's macroeconomic conditions, especially on exports, imports, interest rates, and inflation. Indonesia must take strategic steps to anticipate the impact of the trade war, especially on export, import, and interest rate policies.

Shaping the Global Business Environment on the United States-China Trade War

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the United States-China trade war, examining its causes, unfolding events, and significant impacts on global trade, economic stability, and bilateral relations. The research objectives are threefold: (1) to analyze the key causes and concerns that led to the initiation of the trade war, including trade imbalances, intellectual property theft, state subsidies, and national security concerns; (2) to assess how the trade war events unfolded, characterized by escalating tariffs and retaliatory measures across distinct phases; and (3) to examine the significant impacts and consequences of the trade war on global trade, economic stability, and bilateral relations, with a focus on global supply chain disruption, economic effects, the agriculture sector, technological competition, and geopolitical implications. The findings highlight the disruptive effects of the trade war on global supply chains, increased costs for businesses and consumers, negative economic consequences for both countries, challenges in the agriculture sector, intensified technological competition, and strained U.S.-China relations with broader geopolitical implications. Addressing the underlying concerns, promoting dialogue, and fostering cooperation between the United States and China are emphasized as crucial steps toward resolving the conflict and achieving a more stable and mutually beneficial trade relationship. This study contributes to the understanding of the trade war's multifaceted nature and underscores the importance of international collaboration and fair trade practices in shaping a prosperous global business environment.

무역정책 불확실성의 전이가 한·중·일의 환율변동성에 미치는 영향

Purpose – This study aims to analyze the spillover effect of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the United States and three Northeast Asian countries (Korea, China, and Japan). Additionally, this study examines the effect of net pairwise directional connectedness (NPDC), derived from TPUs on exchange rate volatility (ERV), as well as the causal relationship between NPDC and ERV. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study derives NPDC using the dynamic connectedness method, as developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), from January 2000 to May 2022. Furthermore, the study applies the panel pooled mean group (PMG) technique and panel causality methodology, developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012), from August 2005 to May 2022 to analyze the impact of NPDC on ERV and their causal relationships. Findings – According to the analysis, the United States-China trade dispute increased the volatility of trade policy through the contraction of international trade, and COVID-19 affected the TPU regarding the stagnation of global production activities and lack of effective demand. Furthermore, this study confirms the empirical results that an increase in NPDC magnifies ERV, and there is bidirectional causality between ERV and NPDC according to time lags. Research Implications – Investors and trade firms must closely examine the interrelationship between NPDC and ERV, and effectively deal with foreign exchange markets and international trade uncertainties to reduce system risks in Northeast Asia.

The United States–China Trade War and Impact on the Post-Conservation Reserve Program Land Allocation

AbstractWe use a Bayesian approach to estimate elasticities of former Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land allocation and the impact of the US–China trade conflict on post-CRP land transitions. Economically acceptable elasticities of land exiting CRP are important for applied analysis, including market shocks and environmental policy. Taking as given the total area exiting the CRP, the Phase 1 deal raised the posterior mean of national post-CRP soybean area by 155 thousand acres and the market facilitation program by 89 thousand acres. Cross-commodity effects are important, and elasticities vary depending on the direction and magnitude of changes in net returns and payments.

The United States–China Trade War: Timeline, Consequences, and Prospects for the US Economy. An Analysis Based on the Textile Industry

In this paper, we investigate the scale of the drop in American imports after it imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese goods. Our analysis spans the whole period of Donald Trump’s presidency (January 2017 – January 2021). In contrast to existing studies, which are mainly devoted to the impact of reduced trade flows on the key macroeconomic indicators, we focus on the specific market of textile products, which was among the most affected by the protectionism measures. The quantitative analysis allows us to conclude that the imposed duties severely hit the textile industry, bringing a noticeable drop in US imports of selected groups of products from China. Furthermore, the review of long‑term consequences indicates that the ongoing trade war has not only adversely affected the macroeconomic fundamentals of the US economy, but it is also likely to have a long‑lasting impact on global supply and production chains.

Another Hole in China’s ‘Great Wall of Money’? Conceptualizing the Involvement of Foreign Investments in the Chinese Non-performing Loans Market Under the US-China Trade Deal

In early 2020, the world economy plunged into a major recession due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and non-performing loans (NPLs) went back on the agenda for banks and regulators in many countries. This is a timely article as it focuses on an attention-drawing regulatory catalyst for changes to the position of foreign investors in the Chinese NPLs disposal market. It uses the Phase One Trade Deal between the United States (US) and China as an opportunity to assess whether or not China is ready to shift towards a new approach for foreign investors trading in the primary NPLs market. Existing studies have been quick to conclude that the US–China Phase One Trade Deal will lead to a policy shift in the Chinese NPLs market through Article 4.5 contained therein. If the US– China Phase One Trade Deal is reviewed in its entirety and if China’s concepts of stability, its state ownership policy and its recent treaty practice are all carefully considered, however, the involvement of foreign investment in the NPLs market may be viewed less optimistically. Using the US–China Phase One Trade Deal as a prism, it can be seen that bilateralism in trade policy may have its own limitations. China’s perception of and policy towards international institutions and regimes show its willingness to integrate into the existing multilateral trade order even though its policy is still obscure and hesitant. Washington should be prepared to soften its decoupling stance to promote cooperation and coordination of the two countries in multilateral institutions. China, United States, US–China Phase One Trade Deal, US–China Trade Tensions, Non-Performing Loans, Foreign Investment, State-Ownership, Financial Stability, Bilateralism, Multilateralism

Impact of the US–China trade war on resource allocation: Evidence from China's land supply

This study investigates the impact of the current United States (US)–China trade war on resource allocation, using monthly panel data at the city level; the data relate to the transfer of local government-controlled land from 2017 to 2019. The results show that the trade war significantly changed local governments' economic development strategies. As the trade war progressed, Chinese local governments shifted their attention to boosting the development of high-tech industries by significantly increasing the proportion of land supply for these industries. After the trade war, for every 1% increase in the US exports as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), land supply to high-tech industries increased by 0.25%. This effect is more prevalent in cities with more fiscal resources, a younger secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Municipal Committee, lower levels of public nationalism, and a larger share of foreign enterprises among exporters. These results are consistent with our assumption that the pressure generated by the US–China trade war has significantly increased the potential returns for local governments in terms of developing high-tech industries.

Regulation of platform market access by the United States and China: Neo‐mercantilism in digital services

AbstractChina and the United States host the world's largest digital platforms. Platforms are multisided markets that facilitate value‐creating exchanges among users, such as social media, e‐commerce, software QJ;application downloads, search, email, and cloud services. Internet access and the purely digital nature of many of the products and services make digital platforms potentially global in scope. This means that the rules and restrictions governing the flow of capital and information services among national markets strongly influence the economic and social potential of digital platforms. The paper conducts a sequential analysis of the rise of barriers to the United States–China trade in ICT and digital platform markets from 2000 to 2021. We find that China's thriving platform economy was relatively open, competitive and market‐driven in its early stages, and benefited from U.S. capital and the entry of U.S. firms. Since 2009, both countries have progressively restricted access to each other's domestic information services markets. In both cases, the primary stated rationale involved national security claims rather than trade policy concerns. Drawing on International Political Economy theory, we label the United States–China interaction pattern digital neo‐mercantilism. Digital neo‐mercantilism fuses the power and security of the national state with economic development in the digital economy. Policymakers represent information flows and digital technologies in domestic policy discourse as critical to the security and relative power of the state, and pursue various forms of industrial policy, data localization, trade protectionism, or exclusion of foreigners as a result. Both the United States and China are following this policy.

PROACTIVE SUSTAINABLE APPROACHES BY MALAYSIAN FEEDER SERVICE COMPANIES IN THE DISRUPTIVE ERA

Feeder services play a significant role in Malaysian shipping economy. A total of 87.5 per cent of feeder companies have established themselves in Port Klang, as their focal point of service, while the remaining 12.5 per cent have chosen neighbouring Singapore Port as their base. Recently, the industry players have faced many challenges, such as hyper-competition, price wars, the COVID-19 pandemic, and threats of bankruptcy, which leads to the situation known as the disruptive era. While plenty of studies have discussed the issues of feeder services by focusing on the “hub and spoke” design, route design and environmental context, there is lack of research on proactive sustainable approach in the case of Malaysia feeder services. As a result, this paper reviews the impact of the United States-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic and hyper-competition among feeder service companies in Malaysia. An extensive literature review and online interviews are conducted with feeder service operators, government agencies and port authorities, and the data analysed using Thematic Analysis. The results show that offering competitive freight rates, reliable services and alliance between feeder operators are important in business sustainability. Meanwhile, unstable oil prices, high chartering costs and less creativity in problem-solving are factors that reduce business sustainability. This paper hopes to assist feeder service operators, researchers and government agencies in understanding and planning sustainable strategies for the industry in the disruptive era.

A Critique of the 2020 United States China Trade Agreement and Suggested Corrective Measures

A Critique of the 2020 United States China Trade Agreement and Suggested Corrective Measures

Implementation of Economic Policy Facing The China American Trade War In The Framework of Nirmilitary Defense

Non-military defense is a defense to deal with non-military threats that can endanger or have implications for national defense. Non-military threats have the dimensions of ideology, politics, economy, socio-culture, technology, public safety, and legislation. In the main points of the general policy of state defense for 2020-2024, it is stated that in the policy of implementing non-military defense, it is directed to deal with the dimensions and types of threats by determining the ministry/institution as the main element. The United States-China trade war is a policy involving two superpowers that have had a major influence on the global economy to date. The government's policy in dealing with the trade war is the program to attract investors as contained in the 16th Indonesian Economic Policy Package (PKE), including Tax Holiday. The purpose of the study is to provide government input on the implementation of economic policies in the face of the US-China trade war in the context of Non-Military Defense. Research with qualitative methods is aimed at understanding social phenomena from the perspective of the participants. The results achieved are in accordance with the theory of Policy Implementation related to Resources, Communication, Disposition and Bureaucratic Structure, a strategy is needed to revamp the bureaucratic structure and recalculate budget resources.

An analysis of the U.S. - China Trade War’s impact on global natural gas markets and the U.S. Coast Guard’s LNG inspection workforce

In this paper, the development and capabilities of the 2020 World Gas Model (WGM) are presented and exemplified through the analysis of two important case studies currently facing the natural gas market, a key component of the global energy sector. The goal of the United States–China Trade War case study is to analyze the potential short- and long-term effects of a prolonged trade war under several different, possible scenarios. Results from the study indicate that while increased tariffs on LNG trade from the U.S. to China greatly reduce the amount of trade volume between the two countries; however, the overall economic effect is negligible. The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) LNG inspection workforce planning case study utilizes the WGM to provide future workforce demand for USCG personnel based on the growth of the U.S. LNG industry. The results from the study indicate that in order to avoid restriction on the U.S. LNG industry, the USCG must increase its LNG inspection workforce at a rate between 10% to 15% per annum. The U.S. - China Trade War effects on the USCG LNG inspection workforce were found to negligible as U.S. trade levels remain heightened and ever-growing despite increasing tariffs or Chinese domestic gas production.

Activating Consumer Demand as a Key to Successful Development of the PRC Economy.

—In the 14th five-year plan of the PRC (2021–2025), consumer demand is considered as the basis for future economic development and GDP per capita growth. Stimulating consumption within the PRC is one of the tasks of the government for 2021. This article analyzes the factors affecting the expansion of consumer demand, and also analyzes the economic indicators associated with the selected issue. The article also draws conclusions about the impact of the United States-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic on changing consumption patterns in the PRC.

Mexico’s Trade Relationship with China in the Context of the United States–China Trade war

The Mexico–China economic relationship is highly asymmetric, although the amount of total trade between the two countries has grown rapidly in the last ten years. Chinese exports to Mexico have grown exponentially and have diversified into different economic sectors. In contrast, Mexican exports to China have also grown but at a much slower pace and the pattern shows more concentration in fewer products. Paradoxically, in the context of the United States–China trade war, the Mexican economy has benefitted from the increase in tariffs that the United States has imposed on Chinese products. In 2019, for the first time, Mexico displaced China as a main trade partner of the United States. In this context, this article analyses the current economic relationship of Mexico with China and the United States in a triangular scheme, the impact of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement on the China–Mexico relationship, and Mexico's trade relationship with both economies in the context of the trade war.

The Spillover of Inflation among the G7 Countries

Many global shocks, including the renegotiation of NAFTA, the United States–China trade war, the Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic, may have recently influenced the inflation spillover in the G7 countries. The current literature overlooks the influence of these important events on the inflation spillover of the G7 countries. This study fulfills this gap and investigates the nature of inflation spillover in the short, medium, and long term. Using the monthly data from 1956:6 to 2020:12, the study finds that Japan and the United States are the main transmitters of inflation. International trade, purchasing power parity, low-cost technology, and the Abenomics policy were found to be responsible for the inflation spillover. We suggest that the central banks of these countries collaborate to achieve the targeted inflation rate.

The Supply Chain Diversification and India–South Korea Cooperation in a Contested East Asia in the Post-COVID-19 Era

This paper analyzes the dynamics of supply chain diversification in a contested East Asia and their implications for India–South Korea cooperation in the post-COVID-19 era. Major powers have sought to restructure supply chain by designing a strategy to reduce their reliance on China-controlled supply chain. The United States–China trade and technological war, Asian regional powers’ escalating conflicts with a rising China, and pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions have played key roles in driving the restructuring process. India and South Korea, Asia’s two major economies, have also re-evaluated their supply chain strategies. As this paper explains, on the one hand, India has been striving to emerge as a supply chain hub for key industries by ending China’s control. On the other hand, South Korea has also been aiming to diversify its supply chain beyond China under the New Southern Policy. Against that backdrop, critical developments concerning supply chain cooperation have occurred between the two countries amid the COVID-19 crisis. The pandemic has not only facilitated the opening of high-level political exchanges on supply chain but also brought tangible outcomes, as Korean companies have become active participants in India’s quest to build an India-centric supply chain. I conclude this study by contending that the two countries are “natural partners” in reshaping the supply chain dynamics in East Asia in the post-COVID-19 era.

The Impact of The United States-China Trade War on The Rest of World Economy

This study discusses the impact of the trade war between China and the United States due to the heating up of relations between the two countries and its impact on the Rest of the World (ROW), which will be seen based on economic performance through GDP, import exports, and employment. Using GTAP software by performing two simulations, the results of simulation 1 value of Real GDP of Rest of World decreased. The highest labor absorption was in the TextWapp sector, with the highest exports in the LightMnfc sector, in simulation 2 the value of Real GDP of Rest of the World increased, absorption the highest workforce in the TransComm sector, with the highest exports in the TransComm sector. The trade war between the United States and China affects the world economy globally, as evidenced by changes in the increase and decrease in GDP, employment and commodity exports in the rest of the world. Keywords: trade war, economy impact, GTAP analysis, rest of world, policy DOI: 10.7176/JESD/12-12-12 Publication date: June 30 th 2021

US economic and trade sanctions against China: A loss-loss confrontation

The economic and trade sanctions implemented by the United States (US) against China have lasted for a few decades and the structural imbalance of the US–China trade relationship has ultimately been escalated to a trade war recently. We examine the economic impacts of US sanctions against China on both sponsor and target countries during the last 20 years. We find that such impacts have significantly changed over time. On one hand, US economic sanctions have gradually extended from China’s labour-intensive to high value-added products and they have largely slowed down China’s trade growth for the last decade. On the other hand, US consumers and businesses have faced higher prices and production costs for Chinese imports (or import substitutes) in the wake of the increasing US trade sanctions, leading to great deadweight losses to the sponsor country. In addition, US economic and trade sanctions against China have largely impacted other economies involved in US–China trade as well. The intermediary status of the Hong Kong SAR has been greatly challenged. Overall, US economic and trade sanctions have caused pain on both China and the US, but their impact on China (the target country) has been largely weakened.

The impact of the economic crisis on Indonesian palm oil exports: a long term simulation analysis

This study aims to analyze the impact of the economic crisis on Indonesia’s palm oil exports. The relationship between factors in palm oil trade was analyzed using the simultaneous equation system model and estimated using the Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) method. This research uses time-series data (years 2000 - 2018). The results showed that Indonesia’s economic growth contracted up to 5.32% leading to an economic recession due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the United States-China trade war which caused Indonesia’s palm oil exports to decline significantly. However, the increase in domestic palm oil consumption is thought to be due to lower palm oil prices and the implementation of domestic industrial policies. In this condition, the depreciation of the rupiah (11%) and the reduction in import tariffs for palm oil from trading partner countries are predicted to be able to improve the performance of Indonesia’s palm oil exports, but still low in net compared to conditions of average economic growth. This proves that the reduction in export tariffs (Indonesia) and import tariffs (trading partners) during the depreciation of the Rupiah due to contraction in economic growth can improve the performance of Indonesia’s palm oil exports.