An analysis of the U.S. - China Trade War’s impact on global natural gas markets and the U.S. Coast Guard’s LNG inspection workforce

Abstract

In this paper, the development and capabilities of the 2020 World Gas Model (WGM) are presented and exemplified through the analysis of two important case studies currently facing the natural gas market, a key component of the global energy sector. The goal of the United States–China Trade War case study is to analyze the potential short- and long-term effects of a prolonged trade war under several different, possible scenarios. Results from the study indicate that while increased tariffs on LNG trade from the U.S. to China greatly reduce the amount of trade volume between the two countries; however, the overall economic effect is negligible. The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) LNG inspection workforce planning case study utilizes the WGM to provide future workforce demand for USCG personnel based on the growth of the U.S. LNG industry. The results from the study indicate that in order to avoid restriction on the U.S. LNG industry, the USCG must increase its LNG inspection workforce at a rate between 10% to 15% per annum. The U.S. - China Trade War effects on the USCG LNG inspection workforce were found to negligible as U.S. trade levels remain heightened and ever-growing despite increasing tariffs or Chinese domestic gas production.