Planning natural gas supply chain pathways for energy system decarbonisation: An Australian case study

Abstract

The future role of natural gas systems in a deeply decarbonised world is very uncertain. This work seeks to characterise the changes that the clean energy transition is likely to induce in the natural gas chain, across extraction and transmission, distribution networks and gas consumption/use trends, for various scenarios with different demand and supply drivers. First, the results of a least-cost macro-scale energy system planning optimisation are explored to identify future natural gas demand and supply requirements. Second, those findings are used as inputs to a detailed analysis of the full gas supply chain, from extraction to final use, to examine the evolution of i) stored resource levels; ii) transmission and distribution networks operation and financing; and iii) required capacity and siting of gas generation; all, with a realistic account of the related infrastructure. Australia is investigated as a case study that relies on natural gas for both domestic and export purposes. Results project a shift towards a more localised gas consumption to be largely supplied by fewer basins, with associated potential transmission and extraction bottlenecks. They anticipate an overall less utilised, ageing distribution network with potential challenges to asset reliability and financing. Finally, they demonstrate both the scheduled and early retirement of fossil generation assets can allow the siting of considerable amounts of new gas power firming capacity on brownfield sites, thus offering an opportunity to reduce total system costs.