The impact of the economic crisis on Indonesian palm oil exports: a long term simulation analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of the economic crisis on Indonesia’s palm oil exports. The relationship between factors in palm oil trade was analyzed using the simultaneous equation system model and estimated using the Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) method. This research uses time-series data (years 2000 - 2018). The results showed that Indonesia’s economic growth contracted up to 5.32% leading to an economic recession due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the United States-China trade war which caused Indonesia’s palm oil exports to decline significantly. However, the increase in domestic palm oil consumption is thought to be due to lower palm oil prices and the implementation of domestic industrial policies. In this condition, the depreciation of the rupiah (11%) and the reduction in import tariffs for palm oil from trading partner countries are predicted to be able to improve the performance of Indonesia’s palm oil exports, but still low in net compared to conditions of average economic growth. This proves that the reduction in export tariffs (Indonesia) and import tariffs (trading partners) during the depreciation of the Rupiah due to contraction in economic growth can improve the performance of Indonesia’s palm oil exports.