Economic Growth Trends Research Articles

Economic growth and population transition in China and India 1990–2018

This paper analyses the trend in economic growth and population transition in China and India during 1990–2018 through a comparative perspective. The analysis follows a decomposition framework which argues that economic growth has a pure demographic component and a pure economic component and it is the latter which actually contributes to improving the standard of living. The analysis reveals that most of the economic growth in China during 1990–2018 has contributed to improving the standard of living but a substantial proportion of economic growth in India has been the result of the demographic factors that contributed little to improve the quality of life of the people. China needs to explore possibilities of productive utilisation of the old people to sustain economic growth whereas India requires reinvigorating the economic system and accelerating population transition to improve the quality of life of its people. The paper concludes that in the context of human well-being, economic growth in India has been less spectacular than that in China.

The making of a city campus

AbstractCampus spatial development has attracted relatively little scholarly research, yet through time major moves reflect and interact with broader policy, design, and societal trends. The city campus as a high‐density, mixed‐use knowledge precinct has emerged as a distinctive type. Its growing prominence points to the convergence of interdependent trends in urban life, higher education, and economic growth. This article describes, contextualises, and reflects upon the physical evolution of the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) in central Sydney. The narrative identifies several distinct development phases: from the urban renewal of a rundown inner‐city precinct through comprehensive replanning following the tenets of high modernism, then adaptive reuse and heritage conservation, to architectural design excellence. In the process, it has become an Australian exemplar of a “tech transformed” contemporary city campus.

The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040

Abstract. Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships emit substantial amounts of sulfur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides, and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions in emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure, and health effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the Port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population-weighted concentrations, and health effects related to NO2, PM2.5, and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg m−3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios; for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from the year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of onshore electricity implementation for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port of up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of onshore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population-weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.

Improvement of Tax Service Efficiency Management

Purpose of the paper is to assess the effectiveness of the Russian tax system in comparison with the development of public service in tax authorities. We use both quantitative methods (e.g. factor analysis, principal component analysis, economic and statistical methods, econometrics, content analysis of legal acts, tabular and graphical visualization, monitoring of tax authorities’ performance indicators) and qualitative methods (comparative legal and comparative historical analysis). The main research results: we proposed a comprehensive methodology for assessing the development of the tax system and service of the Russian Federation in 1991–2018; we have tested this methodology on statistical data and calculated the indices; compiled a chronology of key events in the tax system and tax authorities development of the Russian Federation. We conclude the high degree of statistical compliance of the tax system development indices and the tax service indices. Mismatch in the dynamics of the development of the tax system and tax service in the recent period of 2014–2018 caused by both the post-crisis slowdown in economic growth and negative trends in government regulation (the emergence of new taxes, increased tax burden on businesses etc.). Identified patterns can be used to assess the effectiveness and reform of service in the tax authorities.

THE ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST AND A REVIEW OF THE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON THE GHANAIAN ECONOMY: APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION

This manuscript explores the effects of Covid-19 pandemic on the economic activities of Ghana by first modelling the Economic growth figures of Ghana; discuss the current covid-19 situation and its economic impact on the nation and to wrap things up by suggesting remedial measures necessary to salvage the situation at hand. To model and forecast the Economic growth trend, the times series analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation (Laplace distribution) techniques were employed. The success of the ARIMA model was monitored through Akaike information Criterion (AIC) where irrefutably the absolute number shows the success of the model - the lower the number, the better the model. The research results showed that in spite of promising economic forecasts, with the force of the pandemic soaring universally, there is no doubt that the economic prosperity of Ghana will be disrupted and major revenue margins shrinked this year. However, due to some solid and harsh measures set out by the government we are optimistic that situations will be well contained and managed. The scientific contribution of the research lies in the fact that it will offer a new way of perceiving risks and uncertainties when policy makers are drafting budgets and economic policies going forward. In that capacity, they will not only adapt to practical and analytical methods to forecast but additionally consider some unforeseen circumstances beyond the control of humanity that may have tormenting impact on economic outputs. KEYWORDS: Time series analysis, Covid-19, Monte-Carlo simulation, GDP per Capita, Modelling, Economic Growth.

Construction of modern and high-tech agricultural temporary vegetable storehouses

Introduction. This article addresses the question of existing problems of development of construction industry in agriculture. Outdated old construction technologies and building structures give a reason for optimization and introduction of modern technologies in agricultural production. The outdated technologies of agricultural construction have a negative impact on the position of agricultural industry in the world stage of trade and economy of countries, while optimization and inevitable modernization of agricultural production and construction allow securing a foothold in the world market. Aspiration to take the lead in the world market is one of the most important tasks of agricultural industry. The agricultural industry also plays an oversize role in human life and the health, efficiency, development and activity of citizens depend directly on the quality of products delivered to the shop windows. This scope of research of this article is a comparison of traditional, temporary, field vegetable storehouses operating in winter time with modern technology of construction of these facilities in terms of technology, efficiency, environmental friendliness, mobility, availability, functionality and profitability. Materials and methods. In the course of this work, the following research methods were used: familiarization with the relevant statutes and regulations related to the study area, comparison of traditional and modern methods of vegetable storage in the field environment during the winter period and identification of the main advantages and disadvantages. Results. The positive and negative sides of the design and methods of construction of modern and traditional outdated technology have been revealed, as well as optimization of construction solutions necessary to ensure conditions for maintaining the quality of products in due form. Conclusions. Modern construction concepts and development of agricultural construction is an important area that allows provoking the trend of economic growth of countries, to take a leading position in the world market, to improve the quality of life of citizens, to improve the ecological system of the area and develop business activities.

Empirical Analysis of Economic Growth Trend of Coastal Areas Based on Convergence Effect

Ma, R., 2020. Empirical analysis of economic growth trend of coastal areas based on convergence effect. In: Yang, Y.; Mi, C.; Zhao, L., and Lam, S. (eds.), Global Topics and New Trends in Coastal Research: Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 103, pp. 33–36. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.There are obvious imbalances in the economic development of coastal areas, which has attracted the attention of many scholars, among which the issue of regional economic growth differences and convergence is a research hotspot. Therefore, combined with the convergence effect, the empirical study of the economic growth trend of coastal areas. To obtain the difference of economic development in coastal areas, including absolute difference trend analysis and relative difference trend analysis. Based on this, the paper constructs the convergence and convergence test model, including β convergence and its test model, σ convergence and its test model, club convergence and its test model. Take a coastal province as an example, empirical analysis of economic growth trend. The results show that: From 2011 to 2017, no coastal region showed convergence in the economic growth, which is in a phase of convergence; From 2017 to 2019, the three regions all showed different degrees of convergence, but the convergence of the first region was not significant. On the basis of the results to discuss the coastal areas of economic growth.

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF THE NDC SCENARIO ON ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE IN MAJOR COUNTRIES

The IAM model EMRICES was adopted to analyze the energy and industrial structure trends of the major countries in the world. In the aspect of energy consumption, the energy varieties are subdivided and a random shock model is introduced to depict the declining trend of energy intensity in different sectors. In the aspect of industrial structure, CGE model is used to describe the trend of economic growth. The NDC constraints would affect the total economic output and energy consumption of various industries according to the emission reduction cost function in EMRICES. The results show that the global temperature would be 2.61∘C by 2100 under NDC constraints, and it is still unable to achieve the target of 2∘C warming. The global carbon emission mitigation should be paid to more attention. In terms of energy consumption, the proportion of nonfossil energy and natural gas consumption will be greatly increased. The change of industrial competitive advantage represented by location quotient shows that China’s manufacturing competitiveness will decline, but its relative concentration and specialization level are still higher than the global average level. India’s manufacturing development will improve. In the financial sector, the United States would still be the leader.

Assessment of the tax system and tax authorities efficiency in Russia

In this paper we propose a comprehensive methodology for assessing the development of the tax system and tax service of the Russian Federation in 1991—2018. Then we have tested this methodology on statistical data and calculated the indices, and compiled a chronology of key events in the development of the tax system of the Russian Federation and the development of tax authorities. Also we have verified the hypothesis of the presence of statistical relationship in the development of the tax system and tax authorities. We reveal a high degree of statistical compliance of the tax system and the tax service development indices. Mismatch in the dynamics of their development in the period of 2014—2018 is caused by both the post-crisis slowdown in economic growth and negative trends in government regulation (the emergence of new taxes, increased tax burden on businesses, etc.).

Meta Analyses and Controversy About Financialization, Growth and Stability: A look from post-transition countries of last decade

Abstract In the recent theory of economic growth, there are multiple explanations for the “downward trend of economic growth”, which is already happening during the past decade in developed and emerging markets. Almost all economists have avoided researching the “hypothesis of a world without growth”, dealing with Krugman’s rhetoric of “secular stagnation is probable” or thinking about Koehn’s rhetoric get rid of dependence on growth”. The cult of growth is embedded in the economic, political and social heads so deeply that for each of them growth is an imperative of life and death. By reviewing certain literature and papers, we can draw a conclusion about trends in the world economy, the dominant macroeconomic mainstream and reconsider and we can a critically resist the role of “rule taker” in the economic policy of post-transition countries in the past ten years. This paper does not investigate or establish a research gap, and does not offer a solutions to current problems that may arise from comparative analyzes, but give a qualitative assessment of the neoliberal tone of global economic policy, note the controversies of economic growth and financial stability and reinterprets earlier doctrinal conflicts in the global economy, which can give perspective possible solutions or policies for post-transition countries today. The key goal of this paper is to give rise to future research.

Sustainability and Infrastructure Investment: National Development Banks in Africa

The need for infrastructure finance in Africa is tremendous. A 2009 report by the World Bank suggests that the continent faces needs of US$93 billion per year. More recent studies, pointing to economic and population growth trends and using more sophisticated methods of assessing needs, indicate that infrastructure needs are actually much higher. Existing financing sources have not been able to keep pace. In this context, the role of national development banks (NDBs) in the continent merits attention. As will be shown below, many African countries have NDBs, although the vast majority are quite small, with limited access to finance and short on capacity. A few, however, are more significant players, particularly in infrastructure (notably in Algeria and South Africa), and others are undergoing reforms under governments that see their potential as an additional source of finance and expertise to promote their country’s development (such as Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda). The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the activities of NDBs in Africa, and present two case studies of South African NDBs — Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) and the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) — that may provide lessons for other NDBs in Africa and beyond. Where data permit, the paper considers general characteristics of the NDBs as well as specific information regarding investment in sustainable infrastructure.

Investment as a region's economic growth key driver

Subject. This article discusses the issues related to investment as a factor in the region's economic growth. Objectives. The article aims to explore investment activities in the region, identify trends in economic growth, develop mechanisms to stimulate investment activity and modernize the regional economy. The Republic of Dagestan is considered as a case study. Methods. For the study, we used the abstract-logical, statistical, analytical methods, and a scholarly literature review. Results. The article proposes a set of reasonable measures to stimulate investment activities in the region and developed tools to involve the authorities in creating the necessary prerequisites for the inflow of private investment. Conclusions. Budget funds play a key role in the amount of investments in Dagestan's economy. Banking capital is practically not involved in the modernization of the region's economy.

An Evaluation of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria Using the Sectorial Economic Function Approach

This study investigates the effect of government public expenditures on Nigeria’s economic growth and development using the sectorial economic function approach. The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the outcome variable in this study, was employed as the proxy for economic growth while government’s expenditures on administrative services, economic services, social and community services, and transfers were used as the predictor variables in this study. Surprisingly, the results from the cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model estimate reveal that all the predictor variables, apart from expenditure on administration, have a positive relationship with economic growth. While expenditures on economic services and social and community services have positive and significant relationship with economic growth, government transfers has a positive but insignificant relationship with economic growth. Emphatically, expenditure on administrative services has a significant negative relationship with economic growth. The result from Wald coefficient diagnostic test reveals that there is short run causality running from the public expenditure aggregates to economic growth. Thus, this study recommends, among others, that efforts should be made to reduce the deadweight aggregate public expenditure on administrative services since it has a significant negative impact on economic growth trend in Nigeria.

Tax Revenue and Economic Growth of Sierra Leone

The positive trend in world economic growth can be attributed to differential growth across the world. The Republic of Sierra Leone is one of the countries in the emerging sub-Saharan African region. Despite Africa’s growth prospects, the region is still one of the global hubs of poverty. This study examined the effect of tax revenue and economic growth of Sierra Leone for the period 1987-2017. This study adopted the ex-post facto design. Data relating to revenues from different tax components and GDP were collected for the years 1987-2017. The study concluded that tax revenue has significant effect on the economic growth of Sierra Leone, although Companies Income Tax (CIT), Custom Excise Duties (CED) and Road Taxes have not contributed positively to economic growth of this nation over the period of study. The intent of government with such tax should be communicated to the general public. In so doing, a separate body should be set up to inspect and ensure that the funds generated by government through tax at each level of government is properly used and any level of government that fails to utilise such taxes as communicated to the public should be charged to court.

Modeling Institutional Reengineering for Inclusive Development (IRID) in Africa

Inclusive development is a newly emerging notion that is gaining substantial attention, especially in international civil societies. The aim of this study, therefore, is to discuss the drivers of inclusive development in Africa, paying special attention to the political economy and structural change variables. Ordinary Least Squares regression is run in STATA 14 to test if there are statistically significant correlations between the five-year average scores of inclusive development index (IDI) as an endogenous variable and (proxies of) the five-year trend in economic growth, technology, structural change, trade, and political economy as exogenous variables. The panel data are pooled from 21 African countries among which 9 countries are landlocked. The regression is run in two scenarios. As an alternative scenario, IDI is pooled from the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2017 report and used as a dependent variable. In the other scenario, IDI is computed by incorporating variables relevant to the African context then used as a dependent variable. In the IRID customized version, the five-year trends of GDP, health facility, the institutional and structural change variables viz. democracy and employment opportunity in the industry sector are statistically significant determinants of inclusive development. Accordingly, an inference is drawn claiming that inter alia a nation is as prosperous, inclusive and resilient as the quality of its governance institutions and enforcement capability. This is in line with the conventional thought in African studies which claim that a natural resource endowment per se is not the sole determinant of development. Finally, to anchor IDI with a pragmatic paradigm, a three-stage institutional reengineering model is proposed which could be applied in different development governance endeavors.

Investigation and Ranking of Factors Influencing Satisfaction of Tehran BRT Public Transport System by TOPSIS Multiple Attribute Decision Making Method

According to the growing trend of IT-based systems and rapid economic growth, the number of private vehicles in most cities is growing at an unprecedented rate. This leads to serious and negative situations, such as increasing traffic congestion and environmental pollution, increasing time and capital losses on roads. Public transport is due to higher capacity as an alternative to the private vehicle. CRM is one of the fast-growing management approaches that leads to improved competitive position, greater market share and profitability. In this research, after identifying the factors affecting the use of public transport based on field surveying, using the fuzzy TOPSIS method, the ranking of the factors affecting the use of public transport is done. For this purpose, after identifying the factors affecting customer satisfaction that were ranked through questionnaires distributed among 500 users of public transport system over 5 time periods by multi-criteria decision making system and ranking results of the different periods are compared.

LEGITIMACY OF GREEN SOLOW MODEL AND ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: A PANEL ANALYSIS FOR ASIAN COUNTRIES

Legitimate countries try to sustain the economic growth and on other side face the pollutant emissions during the production process. Global warming and climate changes are results of these pollutant emissions. The study estimates the Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis empirically in the panel of Asian developed and developing countries. The numbers of cross sections are five with time period ranges from 1981 to 2010. The empirical results are obtained by fixed effect method. In addition, dynamic relationship between CO2 emission per capita, energy consumption per capita, export product diversification (Theil index) and economic growth per capita is checked. The value of Theil index suggests that in developed countries export product diversification is elastic whereas it is inelastic in developing countries. It suggests that developed countries export basket has items with less pollutant emissions effect. On other hand, export basket of developing countries still has large pollutant emission items. The energy consumption in industries for production is positively involved in CO2 emission. The GDP per capita is positively involved in CO2 emission whereas, squared GDP per capita involve in reduction of CO2 emission. The signs of GDP and squared GDP per capita provide the evidence of EKC hypothesis. In addition, study checks the validity of Green Solow model in Asian developed and developing countries with five numbers of cross sections. The validity is checked by Mann-Kendall trend test. The results infer that except Singapore, no other country exhibits the initial increasing and then decreasing trend to support the green Solow model. Moreover, graphical representation of Mann-Kendall trend test indicates that GDP or economic growth trend is higher than emission trend in Hong Kong and Singapore.

Deforestation and economic growth trends on oceanic islands highlight the need for meso-scale analysis and improved mid-range theory in conservation

Bhatia, N., and G. S. Cumming. 2020. Deforestation and economic growth trends on oceanic islands highlight the need for meso-scale analysis and improved mid-range theory in conservation. Ecology and Society 25(3):10. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-11713-250310

Analysis of the Description of Experiential Marketing, Store Atmosphere and Local Retail Customer Satisfaction of Gorontalo City, Indonesia

The trend of economic growth in Gorontalo City, surpassing national economic growth, is one reason why retail businesses develop here. This study aims to describe experiential marketing, the atmosphere of a local modern retail satisfaction store in Gorontalo City. The research was conducted on the local retail type of Gorontalo City, Indonesia. The population of this study was local minimarket retail customers in Gorontalo City. The sample size used was 190 respondents. The average value of the Experiential Marketing indicator is 4.05, which means that respondents tend to agree that retailers have good relationships with consumers directly. The sales assistant communicates well with consumers to maintain relationships, thus establishing good relationships with consumers directly.Moreover, the sales assistant to communicate well with consumers to maintain relationships has contributed to the Relate indicator. The description of the shop atmosphere's average value is reflected through four indicators, namely the Store Exterior, General Interior, Store Layout, Interior Display, and Store Layout indicators, which have the highest rating compared to other indicators with an average value of 4.34. Customer Satisfaction's average value is 3.99, meaning that the respondent feels satisfied shopping at local modern retail. This is reflected in the respondent's statement who has the highest average value, namely, Saying positive things about retail to others. In the following statements, the respondent tends to agree to service exceeded expectations. Customer Satisfaction is formed by indicators of saying positive things about retail to others, in the aftermath of the service exceeding expectations, then intending to shop again.

The effect of the state of the banking system on national economic resilience

Economic resilience is directly related to the level of development of the banking system within a single economic space. This article identifies the degree of influence of the main indicators of the state of the banking system on the values of the resilience of the national economy of Russia. A review of the main research results in this area is carried out and the similarity of the positions of various authors on the issue of direct influence between the dynamics of banks’ development and economic growth trends is revealed. The dynamic and structural analysis reflecting the degree of integration of the banking system and the Russian economy is carried out. The main determinants of the banking system, which have a direct impact on the dynamics of the national economy, are identified and systematized. An econometric analysis is carried out in the form of a regression model describing the degree of connection and influence of the main banking indicators on the stability of the Russian economy in terms of GDP per capita. The results obtained reflect a high degree of connection between the dynamics of indicators of the state of the banking system and the level the national economic resilience.