THE ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST AND A REVIEW OF THE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON THE GHANAIAN ECONOMY: APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION

Abstract

This manuscript explores the effects of Covid-19 pandemic on the economic activities of Ghana by first modelling the Economic growth figures of Ghana; discuss the current covid-19 situation and its economic impact on the nation and to wrap things up by suggesting remedial measures necessary to salvage the situation at hand. To model and forecast the Economic growth trend, the times series analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation (Laplace distribution) techniques were employed. The success of the ARIMA model was monitored through Akaike information Criterion (AIC) where irrefutably the absolute number shows the success of the model - the lower the number, the better the model. The research results showed that in spite of promising economic forecasts, with the force of the pandemic soaring universally, there is no doubt that the economic prosperity of Ghana will be disrupted and major revenue margins shrinked this year. However, due to some solid and harsh measures set out by the government we are optimistic that situations will be well contained and managed. The scientific contribution of the research lies in the fact that it will offer a new way of perceiving risks and uncertainties when policy makers are drafting budgets and economic policies going forward. In that capacity, they will not only adapt to practical and analytical methods to forecast but additionally consider some unforeseen circumstances beyond the control of humanity that may have tormenting impact on economic outputs. KEYWORDS: Time series analysis, Covid-19, Monte-Carlo simulation, GDP per Capita, Modelling, Economic Growth.