Economic Growth Trends Research Articles

Trends in economic growth and levels of wealth inequality in G20 nations: 2001–2013

During the first 13 years of the twenty-first century, the world economy experienced a period of economic volatility with a rapid boom followed by a strong contraction and then a prolonged recession. This volatility provides a unique opportunity to examine the associations between economic growth and levels of wealth inequality. In this paper, I use data published by the World Bank to examine trends in economic growth; data published by Credit Suisse to examine trends in levels of wealth inequality; and data collated from the billionaires lists published by Forbes Magazine to examine the concentration of wealth at the very top of the distribution in the G20 nations. Overall, the results presented in this paper indicate that rapid economic growth was associated with increased wealth inequality and exceptionally large increases in the number of billionaires, whereas negative or low levels of economic growth were associated with declining or stable levels of wealth inequality and more moderate increases, or a decline, in the numbers of billionaires.

Designing an Alternative Public Pension Scheme: A Korean Case Study

The trends of ageing population and slow economic growth have become a major concern for public pension schemes with the defined benefit (DB) type. To mitigate the impact of this trend and secure long-term financial sustainability, several countries have recently adopted notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes. In this paper, we show how to apply an NDC scheme to the public pension system of Korea, arguably the fastest ageing country. In particular, we create a new pension system by combining the current Korean pension scheme and an NDC. Through simulations it is shown that the proposed scheme can reduce the financial instability caused by the changes in demographic and economic factors, while retaining the income redistribution component. We further consider applying a German-type automatic balancing mechanism to the proposed scheme, by using the average income to determine the return rate of the fund, to make it sustainable in the long term.

Adaptability Adjustment of China’s Fiscal and Taxation Policies under “New Normal”—Based on Korea’s Experience

In recent years, the economic development of China has gradually showed the different characteristics from the past and has entered the new normal. Under the new normal, China’s economic growth trends and characteristics have undergone the great changes, the economic growth is in transition from high-speed growth to the medium-high-speed growth, and the economic growth model will be transferred from relying on exports and investment to relying on being driven by the domestic demand, the key for economic growth will be transferred from the factor driven to the innovation driven. At present, the main task of China’s economic development is to adapt to new normal. As an important means of national macro-control, fiscal and taxation policies have their own problem of inadequate system supply. This thesis intends to study the deficiencies of China’s fiscal and taxation policies under new normal, and propose the suggestions for the adaptability adjustment of fiscal and taxation policies. The study finds that under new normal, there’s difficult economic transition due to the insufficient supply of China’s fiscal and taxation policies in terms of the income, encourage innovation and environmental protection, and it is urgent to supplement and adjust China’s existing fiscal and taxation policies. Based on the reference to beneficial experiences of adjustment of Korea’s fiscal and taxation policies, combined with the actual situation of China, this thesis puts forward that the fiscal and taxation policies in China under new normal should be improved greatly from the aspects of tax structure, fiscal and taxation support of the scientific and technological innovation and fiscal and taxation policies of environmental protection, and others.

Economic growth constraints in Vietnam: A study using the growth diagnostic approach

Recent studies have clearly pointed out a decreasing trend of Vietnam's economic growth in the short and the medium terms. This paper presents a study applying the growth diagnostic method for Vietnam to determine growth constrains. The binding growth constrains of Vietnam are found to include a poor business environment; an underdeveloped infrastructure, especially the transportation network market; failures related to information externalities, learning externalities and coordination failures. Notably, the energy infrastructure could be a vital constraint in a near future, but is not a binding constraint at present. The inefficiency of financial intermediaries and the government's over-investment could become a binding constraint when the economy returns to its high growth path.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI MINAT INVESTASI DI DAERAH : STUDY KASUS DI KABUPATEN JEMBER JAWA TIMUR

The trend of economic growth in Jember region is tremendously sophisticated. It needs more resources support especially from potential investors either government or private sector. Investigation on the partner's environments is normally been conducted before coming to the field. The perceptions of this potential investor will derive their expectation and contribute significantly to investment climate in Jember. The aims of this research are: (1) to determine the economic and non economic potential factors in Jember region and to attract the investors (2) to test the reliability and validity of the potential factors. Besides twenty two economic and non economic factors, there are six variables produced by EFA method. These variables are potentially influence the investors' attractiveness. There are economic stabilization, administration, government policy, institutional, and securities. Reliability and validity test imply that the factors are able for further statistical analysis.

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.

Growth Acceleration of the Indian Economy in the Post-Independence Era: A Story of Sustained Savings and Investment

The present paper discussed the procyclicality story of savings in India since independence and then analyzed the trends in savings, investment, and economic growth of India for the period from 1950-51 to 2010-11, and finally examined the Feldstein-Horioka proposition by taking into account South Asia, East Asia, and Latin American economies. It strongly argued that India's growth is largely financed by the availability of domestic savings, and household savings are the main contributor to domestic savings. The Feldstein-Horioka proposition was validated for all the countries taken for the study, which suggested that domestic investments were predominantly determined by domestic savings. Moreover, India's long term capital-output ratio, which shows the efficiency of resource use is around 4, which can be compared to the best in the world. As household savings play a vital role in the domestic savings, and the deficit public sector and private sector draw on household savings to meet their investment requirements and finance the resource gaps, a two-pronged approach with the incentive-based measures to induce the motivation to save, and the productivity-based measures to increase income and strengthen the capacity to save would be useful to generate higher savings and reinforce the acceleration of income and growth.

The Economic Contribution of Turkish Tourism Entrepreneurship on the Development of Tourism Movements in Islamic Countries

It is certainly an undeniable fact that the sectors constituting the global economy have screened a significant structural change as the degree of causality relationship between the world economy and globalization proliferates. In addition to this affirmative unfolding, all of these sectors have got through an economic growth period in real terms, while forcing themselves to change structurally. As this economic growth trend pervaded in the world geography, considerable raises were observed in the volume of consumer masses and the markets in which these sectors operate. The pervasiveness come into existence in the world geography has also caused to step up the dynamism of tourism industry. Together with the globalization and rising incomes, it is clearly uncovered that the tourism movements have not only an economic dimension but also other components such as particularly the social, cultural, religious, political, sportive, environmental, etc. dimensions. In our study, we will be trying to figure out whether Islamic Countries take a sufficient share from that ambitious economic growth trend and magnificent structural change process of the world tourism sector, as well as questioning how to expand the amount of this share through the leadership of Turkish tourism entrepreneurship.

Forecasting growth and stock performance using government and corporate yield curves: Evidence from the European and Asian markets

Past research has shown that the government yield curve and credit spreads can predict future macroeconomic parameters such as the growth rate. However, it has focused mostly on the US government yield curve. In this study we extend the existing notion by using both government and corporate yield curves to predict economic growth and stock market behavior in three main markets outside the US.The results we obtained from the British, European and Japanese markets reveal that government and corporate yield curves can indeed predict future economic growth and stock market trends.

LIVESTOCK FARMING GROWTH IN THE HIGHLAND DAGESTAN (CALLED AVARIA) IN THE XIX CENTURY

The paper explored livestock farming‟ growth in the high-land Dagestan in the XIX century and impact the cattle-breeding exerted on the farming growth due to its leading position in this sector of national economy of Dagestan over the period explored. The study also mentioned specif-ic patterns of keeping stock used to apply in the highlands of Dagestan. Attention has been paid to raising crops, cat-tle-breeding operations, having impact on the advancement of the Dagestan region community over the period speci-fied. The author has drawn attention to uneven trend of economic growth in Dagestan of the XIX and early XX cen-turies. Speaking about the feudal trend emerged in the Avarian society, scholars have argued in a traditional style that it followed the path of cattle-breeding‟ advancement, with the cattle stock concentrated at the disposal of the feudal mi-nority, and evolution of patterns of land ownership related to this main trend of economy growth as well.

Options for sustainable development planning based on “GHGs emissions reduction allocation (GERA)” from a national perspective

Climate change phenomenon can be seen as a simple but daunting problem. The lack of equity in emission reduction burden sharing regime, will cause a need for a greater sacrifice for poor or less developed countries. Thus, the evaluation of different aspects of equity at a national scale and presenting a top–down model of equity for allocation of GHGs emission (such as GERA) in line with sustainable development is the main objective of this study. In this study, the five equity principles proposed in the literature namely (1) population distribution, (2) GHGs emissions, (3) GDP, (4) trend of economic growth and (5) per capita of carbon productivity as appropriate criteria of equity estimation. Due to the different decision makers' preferences, different weights are allocated to indicators and analyzed. Iran has been considered as a case study, and these criteria were applied at national level to propose an allowance allocation scheme. The result of applying GERA for Iran, at provincial level and under the five equity criteria, determines which provinces have to shoulder higher reduction burdens, and makes a room for less developed provinces for growth. Based on these results, this model demonstrated to be more sensitive to criteria selection rather than to the weight factors. In addition, shifting to low carbon technologies or renewables, careful evaluation of current emission–income pattern, improving of energy intensity and finally, adjustment of secondary industries (manufacturing) based on ecological and natural resources of each region are suggested as the most efficient approaches toward sustainability and green development for the case study.

Energy security and sustainable competitiveness of industry development

The article deals with an urgent contemporary issue of sustainable development by tackling controversy and incompatibility of economic aims: to combine energy security, economic growth, steward environmental health and maintain long-term competitiveness. A discussion about perception of energy security, future trends of energy consumption, economic growth and mode of impact of energetically secure economic growth on environment and level of international competitiveness is elaborated on. The authors suggest conceptual approaches towards formulating measurable aims for sustainable and internationally competitive economic developments, which would allow us to achieve comparative compatibility of unrestricted energy availability and development of industrial constitute of countries economies, which would not lead to gradual degradation of environment and decline of international competitiveness in the long run.

Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong SAR’s economic growth with mainland China and the United States. This paper identifies trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, the paper confirms whether real consumption in Hong Kong SAR and mainland China satisfy the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. It then identifies the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. It uses structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the United States affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. The paper’s main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the United States remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong SAR’s business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong SAR’s trend growth.

Analysis of the most Pressing Vulnerabilities of the Romanian Economy at the Start of the Global Financial Crisis

Abstract In Romania, as well as in other Central and Eastern Europe countries, the recent financial crisis has halted the economic growth trend, revealing major structural vulnerabilities. This research aims to identify whether bad economic policies adopted in times of economic expansion could lead to limited options of stimulating the economy in times of recession. In pursuit of this objective, the author analyzed the evolution of Romania's main macroeconomic indicators during economic boom, the crisis and the post-crisis period. Following the empirical analysis, the author expects to point out the main weaknesses of the economy and to determine whether the nature of the economic policies adopted during the pre-crisis period exposed the Romanian economy further more to the negative effects of the economic crisis in 2007-2008 time period.

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU IN POST-CRISIS PERIOD

Labour productivity and economic growth are the major factors to sustain and improve the performance and competitiveness of countries. The paper is devoted to the analysis of recent trends of labour productivity and economic growth in the European Union (EU) countries in post-crisis period in comparison with the trends in pre-crisis and crisis periods. The paper analyses the impact of changes in labour productivity and the effect on the macroeconomic indicators. The research focuses on the European Union countries that experienced the most severe crisis and afterwards the most rapid recovery in post-crisis period (as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia). The research findings argue that there are weak or no relations between productivity increase and economic growth in pre-crisis period and the first phase of post-crisis period; however, the increase of productivity during the crisis is a significant driver of the economy after a period of time. The research covers the time period from 2004 to 2012 that can be subdivided into three periods – 2004-2007 (pre-crisis), 2008-2010 (crisis) and starting from 2011 (post-crisis). It should be stressed that “pre-crisis” period is defined only for research purposes (to compare pre and post-crises periods) and it is not an official definition of this time period, as well economic cycles strongly vary amid the countries. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.19.3.7819

The suburbanization of poverty? An alternative perspective

A popular and powerful narrative focuses on a crisis of suburban decline in the United States. However, a consensus regarding the scope and scale of one dimension of suburban decline—poverty—is hindered by the use of contradictory definitions of suburban space. This research presents an alternative approach to measuring suburban poverty that is less computationally intensive yet capable of capturing complex shifts in the spatial distribution of poverty within metropolitan areas. An analysis of the distribution of poverty in the largest 100 metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2007–11 concludes that while poverty is increasing in the low-density suburbs of a handful of large metropolitan areas, the more general trend in most other metropolitan areas is an increase in poverty in moderately dense residential areas. Implicated in these trends are long-term trends in metropolitan area economic growth, a secular decline in inner-ring suburbs, and the impact of gentrification on housing opportunities for at-risk populations in large cities.

Where's the capital? A geographical essay.

This paper is inspired by Thomas Piketty's book Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Piketty does a wonderful job of tracing income and wealth over time, and relating changes to trends of economic and population growth, and drawing out the implications for inequality, inheritance and even democracy. But, he says relatively little about where capital is located, how capital accumulation in one place relies on activities elsewhere, how capital is urbanized with advanced capitalism and what life is like in spaces without capital. This paper asks 'where is the geography in Capital' or 'where is the geography of capital in Capital'? Following Piketty's lead, the paper develops its analysis through a number of important novels. It examines, first, the debate that Jane Austen ignored colonialism and slavery in her treatment of nineteenth century Britain, second, how Balzac and then Zola provide insight to the urban political economy of capital later in the century, and third, how Katherine Boo attends to inequality as the everyday suffering of the poor.

Labour Productivity, Economic Growth and Global Competitiveness in Post-crisis Period

Labour productivity and economic growth are key factors to maintain and improve the competiveness of nations in the global market. The paper is devoted to the analysis of recent trends of labour productivity and economic growth in post-crisis period in comparison with the trends in pre-crisis and crisis periods. The paper analyzes the impact of changes in labour productivity and its effect on the nation's global competitiveness. The research focuses on the European Union countries that experienced the most severe crisis and afterwards the most rapid recovery in post-crisis period (as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia). The research findings argue that there are weak or no relations between productivity increase and economic growth in pre-crisis period and the first phase of post-crisis period; however, the increase of productivity during the crisis is a significant driver of the economy after a period of time.

Apertura comercial y desarrollo económico mundial en la globalización

La política económica neoliberal ha promovido a escala global la apertura comercial bajo la hipótesis de que la liberalización del comercio da lugar automáticamente a un quiebre positivo en la tendencia de crecimiento económico. Esta acción de política económica está sustentada fundamentalmente en la teoría de la ventaja comparativa desarrollada por David Ricardo en la segunda década del Siglo XIX. Sin embargo, la ausencia de un incremento generalizado del PIB que acompañe la apertura comercial implementada a partir de la década de los ochenta en una gran cantidad de países nos muestra señales de que algo ha sucedido en el modelo exportador adoptado contrario a las expectativas favorables prometidas. México y muchos otros países se encuentran en un callejón sin salida, con problemas que se han profundizado con la reciente crisis económica que hasta ahora, especialmente en EE.UU. y Europa, no muestra señales de una recuperación global.

Trends in mortality decrease and economic growth.

The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are trying to link mortality dynamics with observable factors. This serves as an intermediate step between the two methods. We perform a comprehensive analysis on the relationship between the latent trend in mortality dynamics and the trend in economic growth represented by gross domestic product (GDP). Subsequently, the Lee-Carter framework is extended through the introduction of GDP as an additional factor next to the latent factor, which provides a better fit and better interpretable forecasts.