ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF THE NDC SCENARIO ON ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE IN MAJOR COUNTRIES

Abstract

The IAM model EMRICES was adopted to analyze the energy and industrial structure trends of the major countries in the world. In the aspect of energy consumption, the energy varieties are subdivided and a random shock model is introduced to depict the declining trend of energy intensity in different sectors. In the aspect of industrial structure, CGE model is used to describe the trend of economic growth. The NDC constraints would affect the total economic output and energy consumption of various industries according to the emission reduction cost function in EMRICES. The results show that the global temperature would be 2.61∘C by 2100 under NDC constraints, and it is still unable to achieve the target of 2∘C warming. The global carbon emission mitigation should be paid to more attention. In terms of energy consumption, the proportion of nonfossil energy and natural gas consumption will be greatly increased. The change of industrial competitive advantage represented by location quotient shows that China’s manufacturing competitiveness will decline, but its relative concentration and specialization level are still higher than the global average level. India’s manufacturing development will improve. In the financial sector, the United States would still be the leader.