Economic Growth Trends Research Articles

The Moderating Effect of Population Growth on the Relationship between Carbon Emission and Economic Development in Surigao Del Norte, Philippines using Predictive Algorithm

This paper explored the moderating effect of population growth on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in Surigao del Norte. The descriptive research design of the study has been complemented by data mining techniques in the analysis of the gathered data. The results revealed that the trend of population growth, economic growth, and carbon emission in Surigao del Norte from 2019-2022 were fluctuating based on pre- and post-pandemic effects as well as increased economic activities, industrial growth, and changes in energy consumption patterns. Moreover, the forecasted trend of population growth, economic development, and carbon emission in the next decade is also fluctuating based on the data but notable increase in the population growth for the province will significantly be seen and since the forecasted trend of population growth, economic growth, and carbon emission is fluctuating, it does have a significant contribution to the Philippines population growth, economic development, and carbon emission in the next decade. Consequently, the economic development in the province of Surigao del Norte poses a significant impact towards the province’s carbon emission in the next years and lastly the population growth of Surigao del Norte has a significant and positive influence towards the economic development of the province and its corresponding carbon emissions in the next years.

Evaluating the Economic and Trade Cooperation Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China-Pakistan Relations

The BRI, initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, sounds like an ambitious scheme for the development of integration and network cooperation scheme in the Asia-Europe-Africa region. Pakistan is the closest ally of BRI since it occupies a strategic position as a transit route for exchange. The China-Pakistan Financial Passage (CPEC), a lead venture of the BRI, centers on improving financial participation and foundation improvement between the two nations. Whereas the BRI has encouraged Pakistan's framework development and expanded two-sided exchange with China, challenges such as debasement, responsibility, obligation supportability, and territorial security dangers have risen. Understanding the BRI's effect on China-Pakistan relations makes a difference in the project's openings, challenges, and potential dangers while directing decision-making and collaborative endeavors. To evaluate the BRI's impact, a combination of descriptive, regression, and comparative analyses was used, along with qualitative insights from policymakers. Data conception further illustrates trends in trade, investment, and economic growth.

An Analysis of the Economic Performance of Nepal’s Provinces

This study analyzes the economic performance of Nepal’s provinces by employing descriptive approach. Secondary data related to the key indicators showing economic performance of provinces, i.e. economic growth, per capita income, contribution to gross domestic product, expenditure and receipt were examined for the period 2018/19-2022/23. The findings reveal a concerning trend of weak economic growth across Nepal’s provinces. The per capita income of most of the provinces is low while provincial transfer dependency is high. Provinces were found to allocate relatively higher proportion of their budget to capital expenditure compared to re-current expenditure. Among the provinces, Bagmati, Gandaki and Koshi have relatively better economic performance compared to other provinces in terms of indicators considered.

The role of project management in driving innovation, economic growth, and future trends

The role of project management in driving innovation, economic growth, and future trends

Money growth and inflation in the Euro Area, UK, and USA: measurement issues and recent results

Abstract This paper identifies several ways in which “measurement matters” in detecting quantity-theoretic linkages between money growth and inflation in recent data from the Euro Area, United Kingdom, and USA. Elaborating on the “Barnett critique,” it uses Divisia aggregates in place of their simple-sum counterparts to gauge the effects that monetary expansion or contraction is having on inflationary pressures. It also uses one-sided time series filtering techniques to track, in real time, slowly shifting trends in velocity and real economic growth that would otherwise weaken the statistical money growth-inflation relationship. Finally, it documents how measures of inflation based on GDP were distorted severely, especially in the EA and UK, during the 2020 economic closures. Using measures based on consumption instead, estimates from the P-star model confirm that changes in money growth have strong predictive power for subsequent movements in inflation.

Exploring the pathways accounting: Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for idiosyncratic risk, sectoral GDP, economic activity, and economic growth

This study examines the interaction between foreign direct investment (FDI), idiosyncratic risk, sectoral GDP, economic activity, and economic growth in ASEAN countries using structural equation modeling (SEM) performed using AMOS software. The analysis uses data from the ASEAN Statistics Database 2023 to distinguish the significant direct and indirect impacts of FDI on idiosyncratic risks, sectoral GDP, economic activity and aggregate economic growth can. ASEAN, which includes ten Southeast Asian countries, has experienced rapid economic growth and increasing integration in recent decades, making it an interesting area to study these relationships. The study covers a comprehensive period to capture trends and differences among ASEAN member states. Applying SEM with AMOS allows a detailed examination of complex relationships between important economic variables. The results show a clear link between FDI inflows, idiosyncratic risks, industry GDP performance, economic activity, and overall economic growth. More specifically, FDI inflows have a notable direct influence on idiosyncratic risks, which then impact GDP growth by sector, and the level of economic activity and ultimately contribute to economic growth trends. economy more broadly in ASEAN countries. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and effectively managing the dynamics between FDI and various economic indicators to promote sustainable economic development across ASEAN. This information can inform policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in developing targeted strategies and policies that maximize the benefits of FDI while minimizing related risks to promote strong and inclusive economic growth in the region. This study highlights the multifaceted relationships in the ASEAN economic context, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions and policy frameworks to exploit the potential of foreign investment directed at ASEAN, to the Sustainable Development Goals and long-term economic prosperity in the region.

How feasible is it to mobilize $31 billion a year for pandemic preparedness and response? An economic growth modelling analysis

BackgroundCovid-19 has reinforced health and economic cases for investing in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR). The World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO) propose that low- and middle-income governments and donor countries should invest $31.1 billion each year for PPR. We analyse, based on the projected economic growth of countries between 2022 and 2027, how likely it is that low- and middle-income country governments and donors can mobilize the estimated funding.MethodsWe modelled trends in economic growth to project domestic health spending by low- and middle-income governments and official development assistance (ODA) by donors for years 2022 to 2027. We modelled two scenarios for countries and donors – a constant and an optimistic scenario. Under the constant scenario we assume that countries and donors continue to dedicate the same proportion of their health spending and ODA as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI), respectively, as they did during baseline (the latest year for which data are available). In the optimistic scenario, we assume a yearly increase of 2.5% in health spending as a share of GDP for countries and ODA as a share of GNI for donors.FindingsOur analysis shows that low-income countries would need to invest on average 37%, lower-middle income countries 9%, and upper-middle income countries 1%, of their total health spending on PPR each year under the constant scenario to meet the World Bank WHO targets. Donors would need to allocate on average 8% of their total ODA across all sectors to PPR each year to meet their target.ConclusionsThe World Bank WHO targets for PPR will not be met unless low- and middle-income governments and donors spend a much higher share of their funding on PPR. Even under optimistic growth scenarios, low-income and lower-middle income countries will require increased support from global health donors. The donor target cannot be met using the yearly increase in ODA under any scenario. If the country and donor targets are not met, the highest-impact health security measures need to be prioritized for funding. Alternative sources of PPR financing could include global taxation (e.g., on financial transactions, carbon, or airline flights), cancelling debt, and addressing illicit financial flows. There is also a need for continued work on estimating current PPR costs and funding requirements in order to arrive at more enduring and reliable estimates.

Water-Energy-Food-Forest Nexus in The Amazon Conservation Unit

Objective: The general objective of this research is to analyze the integration of forests into the water-energy-food nexus in a Conservation Unit in the Brazilian Amazon, aiming to verify how traditional populations, in whose areas they inhabit, use two natural and non-wood resources for their survival. Theoretical Framework: The approach to the water-energy-food nexus emerged in the last decade around concerns such as global trends in population growth, economic growth and climate changes that place pressure on water, energy, food and forest resources. Method: The adopted methodology uses a qualitative approach, given the importance of understanding how the water, energy, food and forest resources in the Lago do Cuniã Extractive Reserve are explored. An exploratory-descriptive type of research, with a central concern in carrying out a preparatory analysis of a known context, meanwhile little explored in the Amazon. The collection of data was carried out by means of interviews with the application of questionnaire and application of non-participant observation techniques. Results and Discussion: The results demonstrate that studies with a nexus approach with four elements provide no understanding of the exploration of sustainable development in the environment of conservation units. Furthermore, the study reveals that maintaining forest resources improves water quality not only, but also controls erosion and resilience against droughts and floods; Contributing to the energy supply, in addition, contributes to the safety of feeding the residents of the conservation unit. Research Implications: For public policy makers, the results demonstrate the need for management practices for the conservation of forests, protection of the quantity and quality of existing rivers and lakes in the conservation unit and protection of aquatic and agricultural ecosystems. Originality/Value: The originality of the article is in the analysis of the role of addressing water, energy and food within an area of ​​environmental protection in the Amazon, and by including the element forest it was possible to find out its triangulation with the other elements and their implications for economic, social and economic factors. you set the mood.

Dynamics Between Sustainable Economic Development and Macro-Economic Variables: Indian Evidence

This paper examines the relationships among selected macro-economic variables such as GDP, GCI, GCNI, SSI, CDI, CPI, and HDI from 2001 to 2022. Utilizing multiple regression analysis, the ARIMA model, co-integration, and causality techniques, the research finds a decreasing trend in economic growth over the coming years. There is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, along with short-run uni-directional relationships among a few variables. The forecasted values of these macroeconomic variables, projected from the base year 2018 up to 2025, indicate that while economic growth (GDP) gradually declines, the other variables show a slow but not significant increase. This suggests that adverse economic growth may hinder the remarkable performance of other variables.

Precarious Tightrope Between External Debt and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

In recent years, the foreign debt in South Asian economies has risen to concerning levels, suggesting that these governments are unable to generate enough revenues to finance their budget, which could most likely increase the risks of a debt crisis. This study looks at the relationship between foreign debt and the economic growth of two South Asian countries—Sri Lanka and Bangladesh—using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models from the period of 1984 to 2022. The comparative results demonstrate a persistent detrimental impact of foreign debt on both countries' economic growth trajectories. Moreover, our research emphasizes the importance of the debt-to-ԌDP ratio, suggesting that a higher percentage of external debt increases the adverse impact on ԌDP growth. The study compares the external debt levels of both countries and its consequences on their economies. Both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka suffer negative consequences from external debt. However, the study indicates that Sri Lanka, burdened with heavier debt, experiences a more pronounced impact on its economic growth trend as compared to Bangladesh. The study aims to address the pressing issue of rising foreign debt in South Asian economies, provide empirical evidence of its impact on economic growth, and offer policy recommendations. The findings have implications for both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, emphasizing the importance of managing debt effectively.

A Study on The Problematization of Logistics in Agricultural Production in The State of Tocantins

Objective: the research aims to describe the logistical service system, observing the problematization of agricultural production in the state of Tocantins, considering that this sector is one of the most promising in terms of socioeconomic and regional development in the country. Theoretical benchmark: with the growing advancement of agricultural production and the exploration of new frontiers, Brazil stands out as one of the main exporters of agricultural products today. Given the significant development of agriculture, it is observed that the logistical factor, mainly costs and infrastructure, is among the elements with the greatest impact on the efficiency of the entire agricultural production chain in the state of Tocantins. Method: the methodology adopted will be the deductive method, based on theoretical logistics studies, applicable legislation, and support materials for logistics learning systems, in addition to economic representation in the state of Tocantins. The resources used include bibliographic and documentary material and other instruments or research techniques in accordance with the adopted methodology, aiming to provide support for research on the proposed theme. Results and conclusion: given the content of this study, it is highlighted that the chain of agricultural processes encompasses a complex network of activities in the production chain, and cannot be conceived solely as a relationship between producer and consumer, given its breadth of action. In this context, it should be noted that logistics services end up representing one of the obstacles to the development of agriculture in the State of Tocantins, mainly due to its geographic location. Implications of the research: the approach adopted in this research offers unprecedented scientific contributions to the field of logistics, providing theoretical bases for interventions and public policies that can impact this economic activity in a Brazilian state with strong economic and social growth trends, whose production has repercussions at national and international levels. Originality/value: the social transformations of recent decades, related to the process of globalization of the economy and technology, have directly influenced the social and economic life of countries, affecting production and service chains and interfering in labor relations. Therefore, the increase in regions dedicated to agribusiness activities is a general trend among emerging countries, requiring a deeper understanding of the territorial approach to regional development, especially in economic activities hampered by bottlenecks in the logistics system, both national and international. Thus, new reflections and planning are necessary and imperative elements in Brazilian states like Tocantins.

Modelling the GDP of KSA using linear and non-linear NNAR and hybrid stochastic time series models.

Gross domestic product (GDP) serves as a crucial economic indicator for measuring a country's economic growth, exhibiting both linear and non-linear trends. This study aims to analyze and propose an efficient and accurate time series approach for modeling and forecasting the GDP annual growth rate (%) of Saudi Arabia, a key financial indicator of the country. Stochastic linear and non-linear time series modeling, along with hybrid approaches, are employed and their results are compared. Initially, conventional linear and nonlinear methods such as ARIMA, Exponential smoothing, TBATS, and NNAR are applied. Subsequently, hybrid models combining these individual time series approaches are utilized. Model diagnostics, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), are employed as criteria for model selection to identify the best-performing model. The findings demonstrated that the neural network autoregressive (NNAR) model, as a non-linear approach, outperformed all other models, exhibiting the lowest values of MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The NNAR(5,3) projected the GDP of 1.3% which is close to the projection of IMF benchmark (1.9) for the year 2023. The selected model can be employed by economists and policymakers to formulate appropriate policies and plans. This quantitative study provides policymakers with a basis for monitoring fluctuations in GDP growth from 2022 to 2029 and ensuring the sustained progression of GDP beyond 2029. Additionally, this study serves as a guide for researchers to test these approaches in different economic dynamics.

Economic analysis of world cities using improved deep shallow learning network with intelligent shell game optimization

An economic analysis is required to determine the financial status of every city throughout the world The economic growth of a city depends on multiple factors like health, finances, transport, industry, and so on. Therefore, it is necessary to have a user-friendly factor for handling the economic data regarding the financial evaluation outcomes The main motive behind this research work is to tackle the issue of low prediction accuracy of the conventional economic and financial growth trend assumption model by developing a model using the latest deep network technology. The data regarding the economic status of a city is collected from standard online sources. The collected data are given to the preprocessing for economic prediction in any city throughout the world phase. After that the optimal attributes from the preprocessed data are extracted with the help of a newly suggested Accuracy-based Shell Game Optimization (ASGO) algorithm Consequently, the chosen optimal attributes are given as input to the final prediction stage. The economy prediction of a city is done using the Optimized and Deep Shallow Learning Network (ODSLN). The parameters in the ODSLN are tuned using the same ASGO algorithm. This helps in enhancing the prediction functionality of the deployed model over large dimensional data. The developed model is validated with standard performance metrics against other conventional prediction models. Throughout the result analysis, the developed model attains a 94% accuracy rate and 93% sensitivity rate which is much better than the existing approaches. The efficiency of the suggested deep learning-based economic prediction model is evaluated against the recently developed model based on several performance measures.

Supply Side Reform of Tourism in Ethnic Areas Empowers Common Wealth--The Perspective of Tourism Talent Resources

Abstract This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the types of tourism resources in ethnic regions and develops a framework for tourism supply-side reform in these areas, emphasizing the role of tourism talent resources. Utilizing the BCC and Malmquist models of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), this study measures the technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency, and total factor productivity of selected ethnic regions from 2006 to 2015. Employing panel data, the study examines the current status and trends of human resources and tourism economic growth, using regression analysis and the Granger causality test to investigate their relationship. The findings reveal a strong correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of tourism employees and tourism economic growth in Ethnic Group A over the study period. The regression significance level is 0.000, indicating a probability less than 0.05, which confirms a positive correlation between the level of tourism human resources and regional tourism supply-side reforms that enhance collective wealth. This research contributes a novel perspective to the discourse on high-quality tourism development and regional economic growth.

INTERACTIONS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, PRODUCTIVITY, INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

The aim of this article is to discuss the relationship between economic growth, productivity, investment and employment in the economy of the Republic of Armenia by using econometric and mathematical toolkits. The study examined long-term quantitative and qualitative changes in the structure of the RA economy and their impact on economic growth, productivity, investment and employment dynamics. The study showed that during the period under review, although a stable trend of economic growth was maintained in the RA economy, the trend of labor productivity, which determines the quality of this growth, was negative, which is associated with the ongoing deterioration of the structure of the economy, in particular, declining share of industries with a high share of value added and high productivity and reducing the influence and of these type of industries. In parallel, the relationship and interaction of real economic growth, productivity, investment and employment were studied using quantitative assessment toolkit.

Prospects for the Construction of Techno-Cities in Siberia

The article discusses the prospects for industrial development in the Siberian region and the Irkutsk region, in particular, and assesses the need to build new cities for the development of such industry. The research is based on a brief analysis of the development of the industrial sector in this region, as well as a more complete analysis of the idea of creating new techno-cities and clusters in Siberia. Relevance. The trend of economic growth allows us to emphasize the importance of ensuring the sustainable development of industry in the Russian Federation. Stable existence in such conditions is ensured by the mechanism of sustainable modernization. He is able to direct the activities of the organization taking into account all the features of the economic and financial system, as well as to ensure a long-term crisis-free existence. The novelty of the study. The creation of techno-cities and the full industrialization of this region occupies a small share in modern research. The purpose of the article is to identify the features of the sustainable development of industry in the Irkutsk region by the example of the implementation of the idea of creating techno-cities in Siberia. Materials and methods of research. The methodological basis of this research is: methods of deduction and induction, methods of comparison, analysis and synthesis. Results and conclusions. The conducted research shows that the creation of new industrial clusters and techno-cities on the territory of the Siberian region is a difficult task and has a huge number of nuances.

Human capital quality and its impact on economic growth of Russian regions

Purpose: is to empirically substantiate the impact of human capital quality on the economic growth of the regions of Russia on the basis of theoretical and methodological generalization of its main aspects.Methods: along with traditional methods, specific methods were used, such as content analysis, methods of expert assessments and comparative analysis, and the calculation and graphic technique of Xiang-Yeaple, which allowed to identify the state of human capital quality, as well as establish its optimal structure suitable for dynamic economic development.Results: the cognitive and non-cognitive parameters of human potential are established as a realistic factor in the dynamics of gross regional product that determines the future pace of economic development. A comparative analysis of the labor demand and supply elasticity coefficients has revealed the degree of impact of its quality in ensuring the corresponding trends of economic growth. It was proven that significant investments in human capital and high levels of its development represent only a factor of ensuring economic growth and don’t guarantee its achievement. Recommendations for ensuring the development of labor potential as determinant of economic development, the growth rates of which largely depends on the human capital quality.Сonclusions and Relevance: the Russian economy should focus on the formation and development of high-quality human capital through talent-fueled innovation by reforming the existing education system and assessing scientific potential in order to optimize the labor and branch structure suitable for high-quality economic growth. Human capital should be structured considering the parameters of its quality, the level of available labor potential, and the types of activities that require advanced knowledge for systemic economic growth.

Evidence from the energy-technology-growth nexus: A new study based on technology-minerals based complexity index

The increasing trend in sustainable economic growth over the last few decades has elevated the energy demand, technological innovation, and access to minerals resources are contributing well to economic development. This article investigates the nexus among minerals resource complexity, energy consumption, technology, and economic growth by employing autoregressive distributed lag and vector error correction techniques for Pakistan from 1995 to 2021. Following thorough research, the long-term results show that an important 9.73 points of economic growth result from every 1 % increase in the complexity of natural resources. On the other hand, technology and energy use negatively affect economic growth, causing drops of −0.03 and −12.9 points, respectively. One-way causality was noted between mineral resources' complexity and economic growth. Moreover, a one-sided causality effect was also confirmed between energy use, technology, and economic growth. Additionally, it was predicted that there is a neutral causality between mineral resources and technology. Corresponding to this, technology and energy consumption have a bidirectional causal relationship. These results imply that energy consumption, technological advancements, and mineral resources contribute as major economic growth drivers and can improve environmental quality.

Territorial Development: Reflection of Rural Cooperativism in the Southeast of the State of Tocantins

Objective: Research and identify territorial development policies in the southeast of the State of Tocantins and identify the potential of cooperatives belonging to the territory of the southeast of the State of Tocantins, aiming at social economic progress, development, and regional sustainability. Theoretical benchmark: Regional development ends up becoming a topic that provokes many debates, as social evolution, dissatisfaction, and non-conformity in the new society cause them to group together to train skills and abilities, with local, municipal, and federal governments as partners. and states for the development process. Method: The deductive method was adopted, based on theoretical and bibliographical study applied to existing research databases. Results and conclusion: It was observed that cooperativism promotes education, democratizes access to credit, and seeks to develop the community in which it operates. This demonstrates that cooperativism has the necessary tools for a broad social inclusion project in southeast Tocantins. Implications of the research: The research offers new scientific contributions to the theme of cooperativism, offering theoretical bases for interventions and public policies that impact this economic activity in a Brazilian state with strong economic and social growth trends. Originality/value: Discussions regarding social transformations in recent decades, related to the globalization of the economy, technology, and its accessibility, have directly reflected in social life and consequently in work relations, thus the increase in regions relegated to oblivion, thus requiring, understanding the meaning of the territorial approach to rural development.

Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative: The case of Pakistan

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Pakistan using the synthetic control method. Based on the panel data of 42 non-BRI countries, we construct a synthetic Pakistan to estimate the economic growth trend of the country without the BRI. By comparing the actual economy with the synthetic case, our results show that the BRI increases the annual per capita GDP growth rate of Pakistan from 3.04% to 4.69% for the period 2013–2018. Pakistan’s per capita GDP in 2018 would have been Int$5,022 instead of Int$5,567 if the BRI had not existed. The outcomes of the in-time placebo test, in-place placebo test, and dropping sample test all confirm the robust impact of the BRI on Pakistan.