Economic Growth Trends Research Articles

Tourism and Its Impact on Economic Development

The relevant nature of tourism has been clearly found in this study. Tourism is recognized as the developmental factor for an economy. The study therefore chose to conduct the effect of tourism on economic development in Ghana. The study sought to analyze the relationship between tourism and infrastructural development in Ghana. It also examined the relationship between crime rate and tourism in Ghana and analyze the trend of tourism and economic growth in Ghana. The study also focused on examining the effect of tourism on the economic growth of Ghana and finally, analyzed the effectiveness of policy on tourism in Ghana. The study adopted quantitative approach through the use of secondary data from 1990 to 2019. Research analysis used for this study was the instrumental variable and correlation. The outcome of the study suggested that infrastructure development of the economy shows a positive relationship with tourism. It was also estimated in the study that when crime is high tourism tends to be low and vice versa. On the part of the estimation, natural resource was the variable used as the instrumental variable. The outcome from controlled variables such as international trade and exchange rate was found to be positively related to economic growth and development in Ghana. Also, instrumental variable estimation showed that tourism had a positive effect on the economic growth of Ghana. The outcome of the study revealed how the sector had reduced the unemployment rate in Ghana through the provision of both direct and indirect job for its people. The sector however is now coupled with challenges such policy issues and COVID 19 as revealed by players in the sector indicates the overreliance on government. Per the outcome of the study, it was recommended that long term policy should be put in place to ensure that successive government follow to prevent the distortion of the progress of the sector. It is recommended that infrastructure development and tourism should be investigated extensively by focusing on the effect of tourism on economic growth in Ghana. Keywords : Tourism, Economic Development DOI: 10.7176/JTHS/60-03 Publication date: March 31 st 2022

Emotion Recognition Algorithm Application Financial Development and Economic Growth Status and Development Trend

Financial market and economic growth and development trends can be regarded as an extremely complex system, and the in-depth study and prediction of this complex system has always been the focus of attention of economists and other scholars. Emotion recognition algorithm is a pattern recognition technology that integrates a number of emerging science and technology, and has good non-linear system fitting capabilities. However, using emotion recognition algorithm models to analyze and predict financial market and economic growth and development trends can yield more accurate prediction results. This article first gives a detailed introduction to the existing financial development and economic growth status and development trend forecasting problems, and then gives a brief overview of the concept of emotion recognition algorithms. Then, it describes the emotion recognition methods, including statistical emotion recognition methods, mixed emotion recognition methods, and emotion recognition methods based on knowledge technology, and conducts in-depth research on the three algorithm models of statistical emotion recognition methods, they are the support vector machine algorithm model, the artificial neural network algorithm model, and the long and short-term memory network algorithm model. Finally, these three algorithm models are applied to the financial market and economic growth and development trend prediction experiments. Experimental results show that the average absolute error of the three algorithms is below 25, which verifies that the emotion recognition algorithm has good operability and feasibility for the prediction of financial market and economic growth and development trends.

МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ СТАЛОГО ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ ГОТЕЛЬНО-РЕСТОРАННОГО БІЗНЕСУ НА ОСНОВІ ДЕКОМПОЗИЦІЙНОГО АНАЛІЗУ

In modern conditions of crisis phenomena, there is a need to transition to sustainable functioning of enterprises. The effectiveness and sustainability of their activities is ensured by the formation of structures in which each element performs certain functions and tasks in order to achieve the set goals. Achieving the target results requires analysis and evaluation of system elements, setting the necessary parameters, structuring them in the given direction of development according to the established methodology. The purpose of the article is to determine the differentiated and integrated impact of operating costs on the efficiency of enterprises, the formation of a decomposed model of sustainable economic development of enterprises in the hotel and restaurant business. In the research process, general scientific and special methods were used, including correlation-regression, statistical, decomposition analysis, methods of economic-mathematical modeling. The article proposes systemic and system and loss approaches, aimed at the formation of target functions of individual types of activities and business processes of hotel and restaurant business enterprises to ensure the selection of optimal development options and increase the efficiency of operational activities. This made it possible to assess and forecast the features of the component (differentiated) and integrated interaction of processes and their elements on the intermediate and final results of operational activities. Based on the results of the analysis, a decomposition model of the sustainable economic development of enterprises in the hotel and restaurant sector was created, which allows assessing the step-by-step effect of individual economic factors and their combination on the reduction of resource costs, the progressive development of their potential based on certain types of capital investments. This ensures the renewal of the material and technical base, the use of reserves of available resources, the improvement of the efficiency of the operational activities of enterprises, and, therefore, their sustainable economic development. The created model makes it possible to establish trends in economic growth and development of business processes, assess the potential of resources and forecast the results of activities based on decomposition analysis.

The Export-Based Variabilities in Oecd And Effects Of The Tax Burden Psychology On Export Limits

It is observed that different levels of development in OECD countries affect the variability in export limits at different levels. In this study, we aimed to deal with the variability in export limits, as the average of OECD countries, on the basis of both economic growth trends and investments in the production of exported goods. We have seen that all kinds of variability in investments have a positive correlation effect on national income together with the variable effect on export limits. This process of structural change has been involved in different development levels in OECD countries, and we have found that developed industrial countries have different effects on export limits, especially. On the other hand, it appears that these variables in question have different effects on public expenditures related to different investment margins. It turns out that the tax burden phenomenon, which has an important place in the cost of export-oriented investments, and the labor costs on the employer, as the tax wedge, also create significant variable effects. In this context, the significance of the proportional changes in the increase in the values of each economic growth within a more variable investment spectrum with different characteristics in OECD countries is also important. Differences in export limits as country averages are affected by different investment values, as well as directly under the positive effect of the national income effect, it also creates an accelerating effect on the investments in export goods. In this respect, it is understood that the increase in exports in each value in OECD countries creates a mutual correlation with different macro variables and different impact levels of countries.

Sustainable economic growth and unemployment nexus of SDG 2030: Bangladesh in Asia.

In this study, we applied the Okun’s law to examine the current progress of sustainable economic growth and unemployment goal of the fourteen developed and developing countries of Asia. Our findings suggests in the long-run, only China has achieved the sustainable economic growth and unemployment goal until 2018. However, due to recent downward trend of economic growth and upward trend of unemployment rate, China is currently walking opposite to the said goal. Besides, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan and Thailand are progressing fast and Malaysia and Tajikistan are progressing moderately towards the sustainable economic growth and unemployment goal 2030. Despite a higher Okun’s coefficient, Turkey is walking opposite to the SDG 2030 due to a sharp rising trend of unemployment and a quick declining trend of GDP in recent time. The rest of the countries are far-off from the above-mentioned goals.

Long-term trends of economic growth in Russia

Long-term trends of economic growth in Russia

Control of Corruption, Political Stability, Foreign Investors, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Trends in the Southeast Asian Region

Purpose: Corruption and lack of political stability had been affecting economic growth, especially after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, with all Asian regions facing an economic downturn. This study aims to examine the influence of the control of corruption, political stability, foreign investors, and government expenditure on economic growth in seven Southeast Asian countries from 1996 to 2018. Design/Methodology/Approach: This study is undertaken fundamentally within the context of the theoretical arguments of the basic Solow Model and the extended Solow Model which incorporates the element of corruption. To ascertain the outcome of the variables, the researcher employed Panel Data Analysis, comprising Pool Ordinary Least Square Method (POLS), Fixed Effects Model (FEM), and Random Effects Model (REM). The Likelihood Test and the Hausman Test were conducted to determine the best models for verifying appropriateness among these models. This study analysed 23 years of data from seven Southeast Asian countries from 1996 to 2018. Research Limitations: The study was limited to seven Southeast Asian countries. The remaining four countries in Southeast Asia, i.e. Myanmar, Timor-Leste, Cambodia, and Laos were excluded due to non-availability of data. Findings: The findings revealed that control of corruption and political stability had no significant influence on economic growth in the seven Southeast Asian countries. Foreign investments and government expenditure, on the other hand, have a significant positive relationship with economic growth in those countries. Practical Implication: Based on the findings, it is recommended that future research would emphasis on subcategories of government expenditures, such as education, agriculture, military, and health. Future researchers may also enhance the number of observations by diversifying the countries studied, while the current study only examined the Southeast Asian region. Originality/Value: This study adds to the current literature on the knowledge of factors influencing economic growth in the Southeast Asian region. Keywords: Control of corruption, political stability, foreign investors, government expenditure, economic growth

Analysis of enterprise management technology and innovation based on multilinear regression model

Abstract With the continuous innovation of scientific research, technological level and social and economic development, the technological innovation of enterprises in the continuous management is also facing a new breakthrough and upgrade. Especially for enterprises in the era of big data, in order to better respond to the new demands of the development of the new era, enterprise managers should make effective technological innovation from the global economic growth trend on the basis of clarifying their own development advantages. Therefore, on the basis of understanding the multiple linear regression model and its construction conditions, this paper analyses the influencing variables in the actual development according to the current management technology and innovation of enterprises, and obtains the clear results of the model research.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE IMPACT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ON TOURISM PHENOMENON

ince 2010, the European Commission, through the Communication “Europe, No1 World Tourism Destination – A New Political Framework for Tourism in Europe”, has drawn the attention to the fact that local / urban tourism strategies should be essential to the way in which cities promote or limit the extension of tourism services; thus, the increase in the number of tourists in cities and the lack of local tourism policies can lead to negative pressures on the local (environmental, cultural and social) environment. In the research, we will analyze how the explosive economic growth trend of the analyzed region (in our case due to the massive absorption of European funds for urban infrastructure and for industrial development) has positively or negatively affected the tourism sector of the area. The objective of the research will be: identification of local officials with the elaboration and implementation of sustainable tourism policies related to sustainability and identification of specific factors of influence – local vision on sustainability, local action instruments and, implicitly, the tourist flow generated compared to the economic growth level of the region. From a methodological point of view, the research combines two levels of analysis: the comparative analysis of local economic development plans and strategies with local tourism policies as well as the comparative analysis of economic growth indicators of the region with the tourism indicators for the chosen period. A comparison between local development strategies and local tourism policies allows us to identify whether the growth of the tourist phenomenon in the region is a mere consequence of the development of the region or it is based on a strategic thinking of tourism development. The idea behind this research is based on the fact that other studies have demonstrated that the notion of sustainable tourism in major European cities remains out of the local political agenda, without discussing possible conflicts between urban tourism and negative externalities.

A Regional Industrial Economic Forecasting Model Based on a Deep Convolutional Neural Network and Big Data

To accurately predict the economic development of each industry in different types of regions, a deep convolutional neural network model was designed for predicting the annual GDP; GDP growth index; and primary, secondary and tertiary industry growth values of each. In the model, raw industrial data are preprocessed by a normalization operation and subsequently transformed by the BoxCox method to approach the normal distribution. Panel data of consecutive years are constructed and used as input to the deep convolutional neural network, and industrial data of year t + 1 are used as the output of the network. Simulation experiments were conducted to analyze 23 years of industrial economic data from 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China. The experimental results show that R-squared value is larger than 0.91 for all 31 provinces and root mean squared log errors (RMSLE) of all regions are less than 0.1, which demonstrate that the proposed method achieves high prediction accuracy with generalization capability and can accurately predict the economic growth trends of different types of regions.

Economic Growth Prediction Algorithm of Coastal Area Based on Impulse Response Function

In order to solve the problems of low accuracy and long prediction time of traditional economic growth prediction algorithms in coastal areas, an algorithm based on impulse response function was designed to analyze economic growth prediction in coastal areas. Crawler technology is used to capture the economic data of coastal areas and normalize the captured data. Based on the processed data, the impulse response function is used to analyze the relationship between different economic variables, so as to build the PSO-LSTM model, which is used to predict the economic growth trend of coastal areas. The experimental results show that, compared with the experimental comparison algorithm, the prediction accuracy of the algorithm designed in this paper is always above 97%, and the prediction time is always below 1 s, which has certain practical significance.

Design of solar powered electric vehicle

With the increased trends of industrialization and global economic growth leading to the everchanging petrol prices and other price hikes, private transport system has become a costly affair. All these problems can be addressed with innovation. One of the most feasible solutions is turning towards renewable energies to solve the issues i.e., increasing the use of renewable energies like solar power in the place of fossil fuels. Everyone’s dream of owning a commercially viable solar vehicle is slowly becoming a reality. Electric vehicles are now available at an affordable price. This opportunity is taken towards the design of a Solar powered two-wheeler. Designing a solar vehicle is a multidisciplinary subject that covers the broad and complex aspects from various subjects. In the designed vehicle, solar panel is used as the power source and developed voltage, stored in the battery, is used to the drive the permanent magnet DC motor which drives the rear wheel of the vehicle.

Economic Growth, Income Inequality and Poverty Trends in Pasture Area’s Householder in SujanagarUpazila, Pabna, Bangladesh: Implications for Development strategy

The study is based on primary household level data obtained from a survey on income expenditure and poverty measures for 2020-21. The perceptual data were collected through field survey which was based on semi structural questionnaire. Total 162 selected samples were considered and simple random sampling techniques have been adopted during data collection. These factual data were collected from various secondary sources like books, journals, magazines, nationally and internationally published data etc. Human development indicators for 1996 have been compared with the study area (pasture area in SujanagarUpazila, Pabna district, Bangladesh). The empirical result shows the analysis of poverty, income inequality, economic growth & development scenario of pasture area’s in Sujanagarupazila, Pabna district, Bangladesh. The research found that 55% respondents live under the poverty line. The study also examines that these householders play an important contribution to the national GDP but their living level is below than standard one. If these areas’ householders’ development access were more available, they would return a great introduction to the society. This paper advises using anti-poverty policy, the concept of poverty minimizing inequality that the society should be tolerant ofattaining the goal of minimizing poverty. It is useful to differentiate between structural and transient causes of poverty. The provision of public goods plays an imperative role in fighting poverty. The government’s proper planning and initiatives, NGOs and Community based organization’s collaboration help build the study area as a socio-economic and environmentally friendly area in Bangladesh.

СУТНІСТЬ ПОТЕНЦІАЛУ ПОДОЛАННЯ НАСЛІДКІВ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ КРИЗИ

The technical structure of society and the existing concept of capitalist economic development cannot meet the current challenges of the XXI century, so it is important to consider the anti-crisis potential of countries, taking into account the conditions of its formation and use. Radical changes in the conditions of formation and attraction of anti-crisis potential require clarification of its essence taking into account the adaptability of public administration, technical capabilities of social production, as well as the human ability to make complex decisions on more efficient combination of resources in uncertainty. In terms of the 6th and 7th technological system, the "potential of regional development" is proposed to be defined as the ability of societies of certain territories to create metacognitive technologies to increase resource efficiency and the ability of societies to quickly integrate into the digital world. The development potential provides the system's ability to adapt to crisis phenomena and maintain the trend of economic growth. The anti-crisis potential (as additional), is involved in the impact of crisis phenomena and helps to overcome the negative impact that has led to a sharp decline in economic growth. A characteristic feature of the "crisis potential" concept is the ability to attract additional resources during the crisis, with the decisive role played by the level of adaptability of public administration, technical capabilities of social production, as well as the ability of labor to make complex decisions in uncertainty. Anti-crisis potential is an opportunity that in the process of anti-crisis management is transformed into an effective mechanism for counteracting crisis phenomena. In countries with strong economies (USA, Austria, Germany, France, Spain) there is a significant drop in GDP per capita during the global financial crisis of 2020, which was triggered by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. At the same time, there are countries (Israel, China), whose economic condition not only has not deteriorated, but undergone even further sustainable development. This trend is due to the fact that for some systems the crisis is not only a threat, but also provides opportunities for the formation of new combinations of resources, which leads to a significant economic effect and further development. If we conduct research the trends of countries' response to global crises and exit from crises, we can see different trajectories. It has been proven that some countries in the world are strengthening their economies after economic crises, so the term "economic potential of the global crisis" has been proposed. The economic potential of the crisis is the possibility for strong economic growth in the region, the ability of the national economy to achieve a strategic goal by using changes in the international market, changing the positions on the international arena.

The new evidence of China's economic downturn: From structural bonus to structural imbalance.

The slowdown of China’s economic growth in the middle-income stage has caused widespread concerns. Based on the analysis of economic structures to explain the downward trend of economic growth, this study expanded the Solow-Swan model to investigate the structural imbalances and evaluated their impacts during the structural transformation in different stages and regions on the economic downturn. Considering the processes of production, distribution, and consumption, six structures were chosen for national and prefecture-levels in China from 1997 to 2017, including sectoral structure, population structure, investment and consumption structure, import-export structure, urban-rural income structure, and financial structure. The study found that China’s comprehensive economic structure was significantly different before and after the middle-income stage, and structural bonus tended to decline. Structural imbalance presented a U-shaped pattern of decreasing first and then increasing, and the impact on economic growth underwent stages of suppression-promotion-suppression. There was a significant difference in the imbalance of six sub-structures and their impacts; furthermore, in the four regions of east, center, west, and northeast the observations were very different. Taken together, the imbalance of economic structure and economic transformation coexisted, and the economic growth slowed down. Based on the experiences from China, this paper provided some evidence for promoting structural optimization and transformation.

Time-Varying Impact of Economic Growth on Carbon Emission in BRICS Countries: New Evidence From Wavelet Analysis

Carbon emission leads to environmental and social consequences, which could be severe in the emerging economies. Owing to the dilemma of emission and economic expansion, it is necessary to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon emission. Multivariate Wavelet analysis is introduced in addition to the decoupling analysis for BRICS countries. The decoupling analysis detects an obvious trend of economic growth decoupling from carbon emission in China, and generates mixed results for the other countries. Estimates of wavelet coherency suggest that BRICS countries have experienced different kinds of structural changes in growth–emission nexus. Results of partial phase-difference and wavelet gain imply that different resource endowments and growth paths lead to varied impact of economic growth on carbon emission and time-varying characteristics of the causality relationship over different frequencies. Energy structure and trade openness matter for anatomizing this time-varying relationship. To succeed in the fight against climate change, the policy makers need to pay serious attention to the dynamic impact of economic growth, energy structure, and trade openness on carbon emission.

New Insights into Development of an Environmental – Economic Model Based on a Composite Environmental Quality Index: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Growth and Environmental Quality Trend

In order to fill the research gap regarding the use of a comprehensive index that includes all dimensions of environmental pollution, this study sought to develop a composite environmental quality index to tackle with the possible bias and remove the possible linearity in the experimental research model. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods were used to obtain this composite index. This study used six environmental indicators from two groups of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) during 2008-2019. According to the obtained error criteria related to the two methods, ANN method was used to calculate the weight of environmental indicators due to having the lowest error criteria and therefore reliable results. Finally, using this composite index, the trend of economic growth and environmental quality were analyzed graphically. The results showed that along with the upward trend of economic growth, the quality of environment follows a downward trend in OPEC countries and an upward trend in OECD countries. At the end of this paper, some limitations of study are presented, and some suggestions for future studies are provided as well.

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Consumption is one of the key concepts in economics due to its animate connections with GDP, savings, and utility. The current study aims to analyse the relationship between household consumption expenditures and some household characteristics in Turkey through Household Budget Surveys of TurkStat for the years 2002 and 2018. With the implementation of quantile regression estimations, it is shown that disposable income emerges as a very important determinant of consumption expenditures as suggested by the conventional theories of consumption. Most of the households, who intensify their savings, especially to purchase real estate, reduce their consumption levels. It is also observed that the household-heads who are single or enjoy a higher level of education spend more. Although the age of the household head is positively associated with the level of consumption in 2002, this relationship seems to be reversed in 2018. Regarding economic growth trends in the Turkish economy, such an observation might support the lifecycle theory. The households who use credit cards and online shopping are associated with a higher level of consumption expenditure compared to those who do not use these opportunities.

Research on the Development of Small and Medium-sized Navy in Southeast Asian Countries

There is no doubt that the entire Asia-Pacific region, especially Southeast Asia, is undergoing a large-scale naval modernization process. However, most analyses of this phenomenon have focused on its scope and nature, especially its possible consequences for peace and stability in the region. Of particular concern is whether we are seeing the beginning of an unstable naval arms race in the region. This is completely grounded, and it is indeed an important research area, which will be discussed in the article. In addition, we also look at the general naval modernization process, and discuss in essence how the country to develop or maintain the navy, as well as the special problems and challenges that the navy often faces in this process, for example, with the current economic growth and international trends, increasing the naval budget and procurement of related potential ship. The purpose of this paper is to review the naval modernization of the six countries in the South China Sea, which can be served as guidance for Taiwan's navy construction.

Two concerns about the interpretation of the estimates of historical national accounts before 1850

AbstractAs contribution to the debate about the interpretation of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution, we discuss two concerns about the currently available estimates of historical national accounts and the way in which these estimates should be interpreted. Firstly, we argue that estimates of the long-term trends of economic growth should make use of all information contained in time series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP henceforth), and therefore use standard regression analysis to establish those trends. Secondly, we point to the problem that the time series of historical GDP are based on very different estimation procedures, which probably affect the outcome in terms of the level of GDP per capita in the period before 1850. Both concerns imply that we do not entirely agree with Jack Goldstone’s views of pre-industrial growth. In particular, his conclusion that growth was cyclical before 1800 is inconsistent with the available GDP estimates, which point to sustained growth, albeit at a very low rate.