Trend Growth Rate Research Articles

Forest Structure, Stand Composition, and Climate-Growth Response in Montane Forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China

Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

The demography of native and non‐native plant species in mountain systems: examples in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

AbstractIn mountainous areas, native and non‐native plants will be exposed to climate change and increased disturbance in the future. Non‐native plants may be more successful than natives in disturbed areas and thus be able to respond quicker to shifting climatic zones. In 2009, monitoring plots were established for populations of a non‐native species (Linaria dalmatica) and a closely related native species (Castilleja miniata) on an elevation gradient in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Population data were collected twice during the growing season for 3 years and used to calculate population vital rates for both species, and to construct population dynamics models for L. dalmatica. Linaria dalmatica vital rates were more associated with climatic/environmental factors than those of C. miniata. Population dynamics models for L. dalmatica showed no trend in population growth rate (λ) vs. elevation. The highest λ corresponded with the lowest vegetation and litter cover, and the highest bare ground cover. All populations with λ < 1 corresponded with the lowest measured winter minimum temperature. There was a negative association between λ and number of weeks of adequate soil moisture, and a weak positive association between λ and mean winter minimum temperature. Variance in vital rates and λ of L. dalmatica suggest broad adaptation within its current range, with the potential to spread further with or without future changes in climate. There is evidence that λ is negatively affected by persistent soil moisture which promotes the growth of other plant species, suggesting that it might expand further if other species were removed by disturbance.

Economic growth in Greece: the cost of a failed adjustment programme

This article aims to assess the cost of failure of Greece's ‘First Economic Adjustment Programme’, in terms of potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. In particular, real GDP trends are estimated through filtering techniques and compared with those had the first programme been successful. The trend growth rate of GDP is estimated at −3.84% (2012Q2), against −2.21% if the targets and forecasts of the first adjustment programme had been realized. The results indicate that the failure of the first programme has had a signifying adverse effect on the country's future growth prospects as current GDP dynamics are far worse than those forecasted in the first programme.

Non-Homothetic Preferences and Industry Directed Technical Change

Sectoral data features (i) changing relative expenditures of different sectors, (ii) non-constancy in relative prices and (iii) long-run trends in relative TFP growth rates across sectors. We provide a tractable theory of industry directed technical change, which is able to reconcile these findings. In doing so, this paper emphasizes the importance of directed technical change, nonhomotheticity of preferences and structural change as a long-run phenomenon. Using the input-output tables of the U.S., our theory helps us to reconstruct how structural change in terms of final consumption affects the market size of industry value-added. Arguing that the structural change across broad categories of final consumption is exogenous from the perspective of an individual firm, this gives us an instrument for the industrial market size (at the valueadded level). We then empirically test for the market size effect of induced innovation. Our findings suggest that a 1 percent increase in an industry’s market size (relative to GDP) leads to an increase in the TFP growth rate of about 0.3 percentage points over five years.

Enlargement of small, asymptomatic, unruptured intracranial aneurysms in patients with no history of subarachnoid hemorrhage: the different factors related to the growth of single and multiple aneurysms

This study was performed to investigate the risk factors related to the growth of small, asymptomatic, unruptured aneurysms in patients with no history of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Between January 2005 and December 2010, a total of 508 patients in whom unruptured intracranial aneurysms were diagnosed at the University of California, Los Angeles medical center did not receive treatment to prevent rupture. Of these, 235 patients with no history of SAH who had asymptomatic, small, unruptured aneurysms (<7 mm) were monitored with 3D CT angiography images. Follow-up images of the lesions were used to measure aneurysm size changes. Patient medical history, family history of SAH, aneurysm size, and location were studied to find the risk factors associated with small aneurysm growth. A total of 319 small aneurysms were included, with follow-up durations of 29.2±20.6 months. Forty-two aneurysms increased in size during the follow-up; 5 aneurysms grew to become ≥7 mm within 38.2±18.3 months. A trend of higher growth rates was found in single aneurysms than in multiple aneurysms (p=0.07). A history of stroke was the only factor associated with single aneurysm growth (p=0.03). The number of aneurysms (p=0.011), number of aneurysms located within the posterior circulation (p=0.030), and patient history of transient ischemic attack (p=0.044) were related to multiple aneurysm growth. Multiple small aneurysms are more likely to grow, and multiple aneurysms located in the posterior circulation may require additional attention. Although single aneurysms have a lower risk of growth, a trend of higher growth rates in single aneurysms was found.

Fodder Distribution Operations as Sustainable Economic Progress in Semi-Urban Areas

The livestock is a sub-sector of the agricultural sector, which adds almost 32% of agricultural output in India. India assists 20% of the livestock population of the world, covering 2.3% geographical area. Recent population trends of India are not matching with the required trend of livestock growth rate due to various reasons, which signifies that India would have to import milk by 2021 and price negotiation could be a problem, if the milk production does not increases at the rate of 5.5% to 180 million tonnes. For economic and sustainable livestock, it is essential to understand the significance of fodder as sustainable produce in the peri-urban areas because semi urban livestock farming and promising fodder bazaars are pointers of rapidly shifting economic circumstances in the livestock sub-sector. This signifies smooth supply of fodder for sustainable livestock population. The present study is an attempt to integrate fodder with sustainable developmental approaches, which includes examining various fodder related objectives. This objective involved analyzing fodder distribution channels in fodder retailing, price margin between the different points of channels, and women's participation in fodder retailing. In this study, data was collected from primary and secondary sources. For collecting primary data, three peri-urban areas - Kolkata in West Bengal, Guwahati in Assam and Agartala in Tripura were considered for the study. The total sample size was 480 respondents, which included producers, retailers or traders, commission agents, and consumers of fodder. The respondents were interviewed randomly in the study area with the help of a structured interview schedule. Simple statistical analysis like percentage analysis was used to achieve the objectives of the study. The expected outcomes of the study are a pre-requisite for sustainable development of semi urban economy related to improvement of producers' share in consumers' rupee, elimination of the middlemen menace, participation of women in fodder retailing and eliminating credit and the price interlocking system.

Business Cycle Convergence or Decoupling? Economic Adjustment in CESEE During the Crisis

We analyze business cycle convergence in the EU by focusing on the decoupling vs. convergence hypothesis for central, eastern and south eastern Europe (CESEE). In a nutshell, we fnd that business cycles in CESEE have decoupled considerably from the euro area (EA) during the financial crisis in terms of both cyclical dispersion (i.e. the deviation of output gaps) and cyclical correlation. The results are mainly driven by smaller countries, which can be explained by the fact that small economies seem to have larger cyclical swings as they are more dependent on external demand, which causes a decoupling in terms of higher output gap deviations from the EA cycle in times of economic crises. At the same time, this does not necessarily affect business cycle synchronization as measured by cyclical correlations, where the strength of the linear relationship of two cycles is measured. However, despite the recent declines in the co-movement, we generally observe high correlation levels of CESEE countries with the EA after their EU accession in 2004. Finally, we find a significant decoupling of trend growth rates between EA and CESEE until the onset of the financial crises. Since the beginning of the crisis, trend growth rates have declined both in CESEE and the EA with the trend growth differential decreasing significantly from about three to below two percentage points in 2011.

Tolerance to long-term exposure of suspended benthic sediments and drill cuttings in the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa

The cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa was exposed to suspended particles (<63μm) for 12weeks. Skeletal growth was significantly lower under exposure concentrations of ∼25mgl−1 than ∼5mgl−1 and there was a trend of lower growth rates when exposed to water-based drill cuttings than to natural benthic sediment. Polyp extension was less in corals exposed to higher material concentrations, which provides a possible explanation for observed skeletal growth differences between particle concentrations. Particle exposure had no significant impact on respiration or proportions of tissue and fatty acids in corals. The volume of additional cleaning mucus released by exposed corals was low and release did not significantly affect coral energy expenditure. Our results indicate that L. pertusa polyps can deal comparatively well with enhanced particle deposition rates and suspended matter concentrations. However, a small pilot experiment indicated that coral larvae might be particularly vulnerable to high particle concentrations.

Dry Bean Morpho-Physiological Responses to Gradual Weed Biomass Accumulation

Field study was carried out in 2011 in west of Iran to assess responses of dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) morpho-physiological traits to gradual weed biomass accumulation. The treatments consisted of two different periods of weed interference, which weeds either infested the plots or removed for an increasing duration of time (0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 days) after crop emergence. Relative dominance and relative importance of weed species fluctuated over the crop cycle. As the duration of weed interference was increased, a declining trend of crop growth rate (CGR) was observed. When weeds were allowed to compete with crop throughout the crop cycle, maximum value of CGR was decreased from 25.57 g m-2 days in full season weed free treatment to 16.78 g m-2 days in full season weed infested treatment. Effect of treatments on leaf area index (LAI) was significant. Weed removal increased LAI but it could not significantly affect this trait, at the early of growing season. Weed interference caused a significant reduction on number of branches. The minimum number of branches was registered in full season weed infested treatment (2.58 branches per plant), while the maximum one was observed in the full season weed free treatment (4.25 branches per plant). Weed competition severely reduced crop yield. At 10 and 20 days after crop emergence, weed infestation could not significantly affect the yield. A negative relationship between weeds’ dry matter accumulation and LAI as well as number of branches was observed which signify the vulnerability of these morpho-physiological traits to weed competition.

Abstract TP82: The Growth of Small, Asymptomatic, Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms with no History of SAH -Different Risk Factors Associated with Single and Multiple Aneurysms

Introduction: The International Study on Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms suggests that small (&lt;7mm), asymptomatic, unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) in patients with no history of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) should be managed conservatively. Recent research has independently shown considerable variation in the rupture risk of small UIA. As enlargement may indicate increased risk of rupture, the factors related to UIA growth may also influence rupture risk. Information about small UIA growth is limited and heterogeneous due to limited follow-up data. Hypothesis: Growth factors for small UIA vary between subset groups. Methods: A retrospective study was performed based on a total of 508 patients diagnosed with UIA from 2005-2010 in our center. 235 patients with asymptomatic, small UIA and no history of SAH were monitored with high resolution 3D CTA. Patient medical history and aneurysm characteristics (size, growth, location and multiplicity) were analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic were used to identify the factors associated with growth. The Student’s t-test was applied to compare the aneurysm growth rate between subset groups. Results: A total of 319 UIA were included with follow-up durations of 29.2 20.0 months. 42 UIA increased in size during the follow-up. 5 UIA grew to become ≥ 7 mm (within 38.2±18.3 months). A trend of higher growth rates was found in single aneurysms than in multiple aneurysms (P=0.07). History of stroke was the only factor associated with single aneurysm growth (P=0.03). The number of aneurysms (P=0.014), aneurysms located within the posterior circulation (P=0.023), and patient history of transient ischemic attack (P=0.032) were related to multiple aneurysm growth. Conclusion: We found that multiple small aneurysms were more likely to grow, especially those at posterior circulation. Although single aneurysms have a lower risk of growth, a trend of higher growth rates was found.

Economic Growth in Africa: Comparing Recent Improvements with the 'Lost 1980s and Early 1990s' and Estimating New Growth Trends

In the first part of the paper we look at economic growth in Africa over the past three decades. We divide the past three decades into two parts: A „lost period“ from 1981 to 1995 and a „recovery period“ since the second half of the 1990s. During the first period, Africa did not catch up but lost ground, Africa’s average per capita income declined. Since the mid-1990s the continent started to catch-up. The boom in the oil price and other raw material prices during the past decade explains only part of this rebound. Many countries also benefited from greater political stability and economic reforms. Although the improved growth performance has helped to improve human development and reduce poverty, poverty levels remain high in many countries and more needs to be done to make growth more “inclusive”. In the second part we estimate the trend growth rates for Africa and several individual countries. We use the Hodrick-Prescott filter with different values for the smoothing parameter lamda. For some countries we specify time-varying values for lamda in order to model breaks in the level and the growth rates of GDP trend. For Africa as a hole and for most countries we find relatively low trend growth rates until the mid-nineties. Since then the trend growth rates rose remarkably - for Africa from 2 % to about 5 %. In the last five years we observe a slight decrease to about 4½ %.

Slowly rising hilly young population of Himachal: A step towards stabilization

Background:Socioeconomic development is the best contraceptive. Himachal Pradesh has made developments in all the fields, especially reducing the size of the family via family planning program.Aim:The objectives of this analysis are to describe the various methods of family planning used from 2003 to 2010 and their impact in averting the births in the state and in stabilizing the population.Materials and Methods:We collected secondary data of the family planning program and the various methods employed from the total population (Census 2011) covered under family planning program (FPP) of the state. We analyzed and compared the results with India. We measured the impact of the program due to FP methods adopted. We employed the standardized program indicators- total fertility rate, birth rate, death rate, growth rate and census trend towards population growth; fertility rate (in %), birth rate and death rate (per thousand of the population per year) from 3.8, 31.5 and 11.1 in 1981 to 1.9, 17.2 and 7.2 in 2009. We entered dataset by double data entry technique and analyzed descriptively using Epi info version 3.3.2 and stat calc software.Results:The state has the population of 6,856,509, sex ratio in age 0-6 years is 906/1000 males. The unmet need for family planning services is 15%. The impact of family planning program has resulted in averting of 3,387,744 of pregnancies from 2003 to 2010. The total fertility rate (TFR) has come down to 1.9 in 2008 from 3.8 children per woman in 1981. The death rate has declined from 11.1 per 1000 live births in 1981 to 7.2 per 1000 live births in 2009. The trend in decadal growth rate of the state is observable as 23.0% in 1971 while in 2011, it is 12.8%; more towards young population and for geriatric one as well but not exploding like India.Conclusion:Total population is on the increase with reference to the population of reproductive age bracket (15-49 years) and also geriatric population above 60 steadily despite good social and health indicators. Bulging reproductive age group with mild upward shift of the geriatric population is the root cause for increasing population in hills of Himachal Pradesh.

Effect of privatization on economy and its adverse effects on economy

Privatization is now become phenomenon of world, it is now practiced by most of organizations who generally wanted to achieve specific goals to flourish their economy by selling those organization creating burden on economy. Therefore in wake of many recession and certain monarchies begin to appear on world map, they have achieved different approaches on setting new targets for achieving better economic growth rate and good economic trend has become their only necessity to achieve such targets of more prosperous economy Prime assets of Pakistan were generally thrown for use of favorites and thus privatization of such economy diamond proved as a failure for economy and our economy began to move toward recession. Privatization of 63 industries including two banks named as ABL and MCB, 7 industries related with automobile category, 8 cement plants, 5 chemical plants, 1 fertilizer plant, 16 units of ghee, 14 ROTI plants and 1 textile unit. Gross Domestic growth rate was generally very much higher than 6% in 1980 after that during rapid privatization diminished to 4% in post privatization period. Most of units have been closed by its purchasers after privatization because inability and inefficiency of Pakistan privatization commission to check the purchaser’s creditworthiness. Most of units were closed soon they were privatized because government has not paid a little attention toward financial status of firm or invest who was willing to buy a company thus a large company which was contributing a little before privatization period, became idle .SCHON group has purchased national fiber, QUAID A ABAD mill and PAK china plant, therefore being bad reputation in Pakistan’s market these industries were sold to this group and consequences which had not been repaired. All three were closed after privatization. These all organization have shown a diversified effect on economy because SCHON group have not any interest in running them they generally expel their amount invested in form of privatization bidding and after gaining benefits though asset stripping they have sold the firm..L.T general(R) SAEED QADIR and SARTAAZ AZIZ generally gave a lot of explanations for unwarranted favoritism. 4.6. Privatization of profitable organization always has negative consequences on GDP Privatization is the process in which government has given the chance to other private entities to select the fate of its economy but privatizing financial institution another organization running on government expense , government has lost a million of dollars in privatization phase as it has lost its resources in form of corruption , selecting higher consultancy and privatizing those institution that are running on profits , thus whenever government has launched such practice there is always one thing in their mind is that whole amount should be disposed of at debt retirement policies and poverty alleviation techniques by education more citizens and removing inequality in income distribution. Because of such dreams government has privatized it’s all those organization which were giving more double return in form of loans whenever they borrowed from state bank. These firms were also giving larger profits and double taxes to the government than pre-nationalization tenure. Thus privatizing such institution not only mean to get our employees ready for sitting at home idle but also reduction in revenues that government used to get for other fruitful activities , now all that amount would go in barrels of foreign direct investors , and we soon realized the current of swimming against current

Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies

How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. We address this puzzle in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are credit constrained. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre and post financial reform in India provides support for the model's key predictions.

Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies

How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. We address this puzzle in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are credit constrained. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre and post financial reform in India provides support for the model's key predictions.

Sommes-nous trop égoïstes ou trop généreux envers les générations futures ?

Résumé Dans notre société occidentale, les sacrifices des générations passées ont contribué à améliorer le bien-être des générations présentes. Qu’en est-il aujourd’hui ? Sous la pression des hérauts du catastrophisme écologique, ne nous demande-t-on pas trop de sacrifices au profit des générations futures ? Ou, au contraire, ne nous en demande-t-on pas assez au vu des risques que nous faisons peser sur le bien-être de ces mêmes générations ? Dans cet article, je rappelle l’importance, pour la prise de décision publique, du choix du taux d’actualisation des flux de dommages (ou bénéfices) futurs liés aux décisions présentes. Je développe ensuite un modèle classique identifiant le taux d’actualisation socialement efficace et en analyse les déterminants (la préférence pure pour le présent, l’effet de richesse et l’effet de précaution). En m’appuyant sur des données empiriques et l’observation du trend de croissance historique, je discute des valeurs raisonnables du taux d’actualisation selon qu’on évalue des projets économiques à horizons courts ou plus lointains. JEL : H43, D9, Q54

Fatigue Crack Growth of Alloy 7050-T7451 Plate in L-S Orientation

Experiments have been conducted to investigate the crack growth characteristics of 7050-T7451 aluminium plate in L-S orientation. Two loading conditions are selected, i.e. constant amplitude and constant stress intensity factor range (ΔK). The effects of ΔK-levels and stress ratios (R) on crack splitting are studied. Test data shows that crack splitting could result in the reverse of crack growth rate trend with the increasing R ratio at high ΔK-level. The appearance of crack splitting depends on both ΔK and R.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Indian States: An Update

This paper is an updated version of Ghoshal, and Bhattacharya. (2008). Data for emission for Indian States has been updated till 2008. Further to what was noted in that paper it is observed that the growth in pollution caused by COB2B emission has decreased in all the major states of India in 1990s compared to the 1980s. Again it bounced back in the twenty-first century in many major states. Although the top three emitting states remained the same in the extended series, Madhya Pradesh has replaced Uttar Pradesh as the highest emitter in the new series. Some major states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have been able to reduce their annual growth in emission in the years after 2000.The trend growth rates for these three states had fallen below the national average in the extended series. The inverted-U shape of the pollution-income relationship remains with only two high income states contributing to the bend back.

On the late-time growth of the two-dimensional Richtmyer–Meshkov instability in shock tube experiments

AbstractIn the present study, shock tube experiments are used to study the very late-time development of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability from a diffuse, nearly sinusoidal, initial perturbation into a fully turbulent flow. The interface is generated by two opposing gas flows and a perturbation is formed on the interface by transversely oscillating the shock tube to create a standing wave. The puncturing of a diaphragm generates a Mach $1. 2$ shock wave that then impacts a density gradient composed of air and SF6, causing the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability to develop in the 2.0 m long test section. The instability is visualized with planar Mie scattering in which smoke particles in the air are illuminated by a Nd:YLF laser sheet, and images are recorded using four high-speed video cameras operating at 6 kHz that allow the recording of the time history of the instability. In addition, particle image velocimetry (PIV) is implemented using a double-pulsed Nd:YAG laser with images recorded using a single CCD camera. Initial modal content, amplitude, and growth rates are reported from the Mie scattering experiments while vorticity and circulation measurements are made using PIV. Amplitude measurements show good early-time agreement but relatively poor late-time agreement with existing nonlinear models. The model of Goncharov (Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 88, 2002, 134502) agrees with growth rate measurements at intermediate times but fails at late experimental times. Measured background acceleration present in the experiment suggests that the late-time growth rate may be influenced by Rayleigh–Taylor instability induced by the interfacial acceleration. Numerical simulations conducted using the LLNL codes Ares and Miranda show that this acceleration may be caused by the growth of boundary layers, and must be accounted for to produce good agreement with models and simulations. Adding acceleration to the Richtmyer–Meshkov buoyancy–drag model produces improved agreement. It is found that the growth rate and amplitude trends are also modelled well by the Likhachev–Jacobs vortex model (Likhachev &amp; Jacobs, Phys. Fluids, vol. 17, 2005, 031704). Circulation measurements also show good agreement with the circulation value extracted by fitting the vortex model to the experimental data.

The Opportunities and Pitfalls of Pakistan’s Trade with China and Other Neighbors

While Pakistani trade with India could give a boost to Pakistan’s economy, there are other neighbors with whom trade could be equally important. We look at this aspect of regional trade and show that promoting trade with the rest of Pakistan’s neighbors could have a significant positive impact on the country’s growth. We show that Pakistan’s trade with these neighbors has grown rapidly over the last 10 years and at present they constitute the largest market for Pakistani exports. We also explain how these exports are not only important in terms of absolute value, they have also contributed to the development of new export products. The overall impact on Pakistan’s economy could well be to raise the trend growth rate for the next decade or so by 2 to 3 percentage points above the historical trend growth rate of 5 percent per annum